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market maker Wintermute released a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, with a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting a new low since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, drawing market attention, the scale of this transaction is negligible. The real reason for the market's weakness is the continuous reduction of positions by U.S. institutional investors and the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.Wintermute pointed out that the U.S. added 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of approximately 80,000. Meanwhile, job openings rose to a near two-year high, and the service price index hit a new high since August 2022. Strong economic data has weakened market expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.55%, creating a "good news is bad news" macro environment that pressures risk assets.Meanwhile, the rally in AI concept stocks has shown signs of weakening, with the Nasdaq index falling 4.7% for the week and the S&P 500 recording its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the pullback in the AI sector, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO have collectively dampened market risk appetite.In the crypto market, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days as of May 30, with total outflows of approximately $2.97 billion. The net outflow in May reached $2.43 billion, marking the worst monthly performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail funds continue to flow into U.S. stocks, while U.S. institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the selling.However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including long-term capital gradually building positions at current price levels. From a perspective of more than one year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming more attractive. The report stated that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will serve as an important barometer for observing market risk appetite. If the issuance is smoothly absorbed, it could help boost market sentiment; conversely, it may exacerbate the pressure on risk assets.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 last week, recording its worst single-week performance since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. In the seven days through Sunday, Bitcoin accumulated a decline of 16%, retreating over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.Multiple market analysts have warned that the current rebound may be difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still "a considerable distance" from a "true bottom."Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total outflows reaching approximately $5.5 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin last week fell below the 200-week moving average, widely regarded as a key support level, further weakening market confidence. Paul Howard, a senior executive at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market conditions as a "silent bear market," arguing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is a significant confirmation signal that the market has entered a bear phase.Analysts point out that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the reversal of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong U.S. employment data are driving the market to reassess the rate path. A high-interest-rate environment is unfavorable for the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets. Additionally, some capital is flowing out of the crypto market into artificial intelligence and technology stock sectors.Despite this, the magnitude of the current correction is still smaller than historical bear market cycles. In past bear markets, Bitcoin typically retraced about 80% from its peak, whereas this cycle's decline is approximately 50%. Some traders believe that if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate and companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin face financing pressures, the market still faces further downside risks in the future. (Bloomberg)
Bitget has launched a new edition of CandyBomb with a total prize pool of 31,500 WLD. This event is exclusively for new futures contract users. By completing specified net deposit and futures trading tasks, individual users can earn up to 315 WLD.Detailed rules have been published on the official Bitget platform. Eligible users must complete registration before participating in the event. The event ends on June 19, 2024 at 18:00 (UTC+8).
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV pointed out in an analysis that Bitcoin demand has entered one of the most extreme contraction states since 2019. The 30-day combined demand growth for spot and perpetual futures has fallen to approximately -650,000 BTC, a threshold that has only appeared three times in history.The simultaneous contraction of spot and futures demand indicates that the weakness is not limited to leveraged speculation; institutional buying and derivative exposure are also retreating synchronously. Bitcoin faces fewer marginal buyers and weaker capacity to absorb selling pressure. Historically, the deep support zone of -650,000 BTC usually marks the beginning of a highly volatile market phase, rather than an immediate bottom.
CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin demand has reached a level seen only three times since 2019. Analyst @MorenoDV_ noted that the current market movement resembles the beginning of a final liquidation phase rather than confirmation of a trend reversal.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has retraced approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has largely been digested and the market has entered a range more conducive to long-term accumulation.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, meaning the market has been completing transactions at a loss since May 18. The indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the 2022 bear market capitulation phase.Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that currently, a large number of holders are selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting significant market fear and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone, nor has it presented a historically significant value trough.He believes that combining these two indicators, while market sentiment is relatively weak, valuations have clearly cooled down. Going forward, key focus points will be whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or realized losses move closer to the extreme levels of 2022 once again, it could signal the onset of a deeper phase of market capitulation.
According to Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $91.38 million.
According to Odaily, on-chain analyst Ai Yi reported that over the past 23 hours, a whale has added 366.65 WBTC on-chain at an average price of $63,540.98, spending approximately $23.29 million. Since yesterday, the whale has accumulated a total position of 525.22 WBTC (approximately $33.29 million) and 31,065.58 ETH (approximately $49.85 million). The current total holdings of BTC and ETH now exceed $142 million.
Odaily News, June 9th — BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger a collapse of the AI stock bubble and drag the entire crypto market down.Hayes said that if traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist deep into the second quarter, spot prices for hydrocarbons and other key commodities could rise in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the US midterm elections, Trump might pivot to a tough stance targeting data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation. Hayes believes the market could anticipate Trump limiting AI capital expenditure and taxing AI companies, thereby triggering the burst of the AI stock bubble.Hayes also noted that since November 2022, the scale of AI-related debt issuance has been approximately $1.5 trillion, and US M2 has increased by roughly the same amount during the same period. He believes the three factors that could pop the AI bubble include rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb three major AI-related IPOs — namely SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — and Trump's shift to opposing AI. In terms of portfolio, Hayes stated that Maelstrom's stock portfolio holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers; he has sold AI-related stocks and offloaded non-core crypto assets, having dumped HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, as well as selling ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH and will execute tactical short trades via derivatives.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that the core driver behind Bitcoin's drop below $60,000 is not the market's feared Strategy sell-off, but sustained ETF outflows triggered by rising US inflation. Data shows that since US inflation data exceeded expectations in April, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated net redemptions of approximately $5.4 billion. Over the same period, MicroStrategy actually increased its BTC holdings by around $2 billion, becoming one of the few net buyers.Markus Thielen noted: "The market has misjudged this decline. Strategy is not the issue; the real driver is institutional ETF selling." The market's current focus should shift to the CPI data to be released this Wednesday. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could reinforce the "higher for longer" interest rate expectation, continuing to pressure risk assets. His model predicts US inflation could rise to 4.3%, higher than the market consensus.10x Research emphasized that market liquidity remains weak: stablecoins saw a net outflow of approximately $5.5 billion last month, and futures open interest has declined, indicating that capital is withdrawing from the crypto market. ETF flows remain the core variable for Bitcoin's price. "Follow the flows, not the narrative." (CoinDesk)
According to Lookonchain monitoring, US Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 4,889 BTC today, valued at $312 million, with a 7-day net outflow of 26,100 BTC, worth $1.66 billion; Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of 8,426 ETH today, valued at $14.2 million, with a 7-day net outflow of 97,500 ETH, worth $164 million.
Bitcoin (BTC) has formed only the second "weekly bullish divergence" in its history on the weekly chart. This technical signal previously preceded a 715% surge in BTC following the FTX collapse. This divergence indicates that while prices are still falling, momentum indicators are starting to recover, suggesting selling pressure may be weakening. Analysis points out:1. BTC's weekly chart shows a rare bullish divergence, with a potential target around $90,000.2. The current price is holding near the 200-week moving average (approximately $62,000). Historically, this level has often served as the bottom area during bear markets (2015, 2018, 2020).3. The previous weekly divergence occurred after the FTX collapse in 2022, after which Bitcoin rallied from around $15,500 to $126,200, a gain of 715%.Technical analysis shows that BTC's weekly RSI has recovered from oversold territory to form a higher low, while the price continues to decline, constituting a bullish divergence signal. Analysts suggest that if BTC breaks through the $64,000-$65,000 range, it could first target $71,500-$73,000, and potentially reach the CME gap at $79,000. The area around the 50-week moving average, approximately $91,755, is seen as the next potential resistance level, while the region above $90,000 also represents long-term resistance.Despite the bullish signal, Bitcoin remains in a weekly bear flag downtrend. If it breaks below the descending channel, the price could fall back to around $50,000 in the short term, unless it reclaims the lower trendline to form support. Overall, BTC is at a critical technical juncture with both bullish and bearish factors at play. Investors need to monitor the dynamic interplay between support at the 200-week moving average and resistance at the 50-week moving average. (Cointelegraph)
Analyst Aylo stated that Bitcoin’s current price rebound is not driven by the recent buying news but rather a technical correction following severe overselling. The current price level has cleared the February lows, creating conditions for a rebound, and this purchase has alleviated market concerns about “Saylor turning into a seller.” Aylo also cautioned that if U.S. equities experience greater volatility, there remains a possibility—particularly in June—of forming a slightly lower new low before rebounding, and predicted that the year’s final bottom will emerge later this year. Additionally, Aylo believes external concerns over Strategy’s large-scale BTC sell-offs are an overinterpretation: while the company may sell a small amount of BTC to repay debt, the likelihood of a substantial sell-off is extremely low.
: According to on-chain analyst Yujin's monitoring, last week, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) purchased 1,550 BTC ($101 million) at a price of approximately $65,332. They currently hold a total of 845,256 BTC ($53.251 billion), with an average cost price of $75,680, resulting in an unrealized loss of $10.718 billion (-16.7%).Ethereum treasury company Bitmine (BMNR) purchased 126,971 ETH ($227 million) last week at a price of approximately $1,788. They currently hold a total of 5,543,872 ETH ($9.286 billion), with an average cost price of $3,446, resulting in an unrealized loss of $9.818 billion (-51.4%).
According to Odaily, a key on-chain indicator for Bitcoin, the Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score), is approaching the typical threshold seen at historical bear market bottoms. This metric measures the deviation of Bitcoin's market price from its realized value (the average cost of each coin since its last on-chain transaction), helping investors determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.Data shows that the current MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.24, approaching the upper boundary of the green zone historically considered the "accumulation range" (around 0 and below). Historically, the bottom of every major bear market has occurred when this indicator touched or briefly dipped into the green zone: during the first major crash in 2011-2012, in 2014, at the end of 2018, and in the second half of 2022, each time paving the way for a subsequent bull run.However, the absolute bottom has not yet been confirmed. On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is 0.84, while the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains as high as 1.29, indicating that long-term holders still possess substantial unrealized profits. Historically, when the MVRV of short-term and long-term holders converge, a cyclical bottom tends to form (as was the case in 2015, 2019, and 2022).Although it is difficult to precisely predict the market bottom, after the hundreds of billions of dollars in sell-offs last week, conditions that have historically signaled a rebound are gradually emerging. This suggests that the Bitcoin bear market may be approaching its end, and investors can monitor on-chain MVRV indicators and changes in holder behavior to identify potential buying opportunities. (CoinDesk)
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, dropping to a low of $59,200 on June 5, a cumulative 53% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline is primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, derivative deleveraging, and sustained pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note currently remains above 4.45%, further dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut.On-chain and fund flow data suggest the current market is closer to a "distribution phase" than "panic selling." The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned significantly negative after strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that recent buyers are steadily exiting. Meanwhile, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in unrealized loss positions, creating significant selling pressure for any potential rebound. As the price approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the characteristic of reducing positions on bounces is becoming more pronounced.At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real household income. The job market remains robust, with job openings hitting a nearly two-year high and continued job creation exceeding replacement levels. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and presenting the Fed with a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation.The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Driven by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations are heating up, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasuries higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting investors to reassess their allocation to risk assets. Bitcoin has been the first to feel the impact, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since launch. The market has also shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "higher for longer" interest rates. Bitfinex Alpha believes that, in the current phase, the trajectory of real yields has become the most important variable influencing performance in both traditional financial and digital asset markets.Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process continues. The report notes that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signals that tokenization infrastructure is further integrating into the traditional financial system. Concurrently, the US GENIUS Act is advancing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under compliance requirements similar to those for traditional financial institutions. The institutio
Bitcoin's recent rebound lacks solid support. Unlike early February when the price dropped to $60,000 and ETF outflows were only $318 million, the total weekly trading volume then was as high as $46.15 billion, indicating panic selling and fierce competition between bears and bulls. Last week, however, the situation was different: ETF outflows accelerated while trading volume remained low, suggesting the market is experiencing sustained capital outflows rather than the typical panic liquidation seen at a local bottom.Therefore, the sustainability of Bitcoin's rebound remains questionable. To push the price back onto a clear upward trajectory, a significant increase in ETF demand may be necessary. However, based on current conditions, this seems unlikely, as two major IPOs from SpaceX and Anthropic are about to commence, potentially continuing to drain liquidity from the broader market, including the crypto asset market. In the short term, Bitcoin still faces structural pressure, and the rebound may be weak. ETF demand and the dynamics of these large-scale IPOs will be key indicators to watch. (CoinDesk)
According to BIT’s official Chinese-language account (@BITofficial_CN) market recap, the crypto market as a whole faced pressure last week. BTC declined from approximately $73,400 on June 1 to around $63,100 on Monday this week, with an intraday low of $61,400; ETH also fell in tandem to roughly $1,680. On the funding front, BTC spot ETFs recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion in outflows. Compounded by whale selling and concerns over Mt. Gox wallet transfers, short-term selling pressure continued to intensify. As BTC approaches the critical support level of $60,000, the market posted an initial rebound within the past 24 hours. Going forward, key factors to monitor include whether ETF inflows resume, whether the $60,000 support level holds, and how this week’s CPI data impacts risk sentiment.
BIT's weekly market review indicates the crypto market continued its weakness last week. BTC fell from approximately $73,400 on June 1st to around $63,100 on Monday morning this week, dipping to about $61,400 during trading on June 4th. ETH faced similar pressure, dropping to around $1,680.BIT stated that the core factor behind this adjustment remains financial pressure. The BTC spot ETF experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion. Meanwhile, whale sell-offs and expectations surrounding the transfer of Mt.Gox-related wallets further exacerbated market selling pressure.The report points out that as BTC approached the key support level of $60,000, the market has seen a preliminary rebound in the past 24 hours. Going forward, key areas to monitor include whether ETF capital continues to flow back, whether the $60,000 support level can hold, and the impact of this week's U.S. CPI data on market risk appetite.
according to Onchain Lens monitoring, an address associated with BlackRock transferred 3,300 BTC and 15,095 ETH to Coinbase, with a total value of approximately $234.4 million.Among them, the 3,300 BTC are valued at approximately $209.22 million, and the 15,095 ETH are valued at approximately $25.17 million. Onchain Lens stated that BlackRock may continue to transfer more assets to Coinbase in the future.