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Analysis: Bitcoin's upward momentum still lacks key support, spot trading volume recovery has yet to accelerate

Odaily reports: Crypto analyst Darkfost stated on X that Bitcoin spot trading volume has seen a moderate rebound since hitting a low in July, but the overall recovery remains limited. Among major exchanges, Binance's spot trading volume rose to over $50 billion in September, up from $42 billion in July; Bybit's spot trading volume increased from $14 billion in July to $19 billion; Kraken rose from $4 billion to $8 billion.Darkfost noted that when Bitcoin hit its phase low in July, spot trading volume also fell to its lowest level since the last bear market, reflecting the weakest market interest in BTC in nearly 3 years. Since then, spot trading volume has picked up somewhat, but no significant recovery has yet emerged. Typically, moderate growth in spot trading volume accompanies a new round of upward momentum for Bitcoin, but if BTC wants to challenge new highs, the market still needs further increases in spot trading volume, especially new demand.

Former SEC Chair Set to Serve as AI Czar, Traders Predict BTC Could Reach $600,000

According to Cointelegraph, Trump is expected to appoint former SEC chairman Jay Clayton as AI czar. Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt predicts that if Bitcoin holds its key lows, the peak of this cycle could reach $600,000.

Over $6 Million in Assets Stolen from Base Anonymous Multisig Vault, 7 Signer Identities Unknown

A crypto asset vault on Base had approximately 1,783 wstETH transferred out on October 4, resulting in losses exceeding $6 million. On-chain records show that the vault is controlled by a 3-of-7 Safe, and the identities of the seven signers have not yet been made public.Security firms stated that the attacker borrowed aBaswstETH from the vault and swapped it for wstETH through Aave. Neither the Base chain itself nor Aave's core contracts have been identified as being exploited, and the specific authorization vulnerability remains unconfirmed. (Bitcoin.com News)

Near Intents Recovers $3.8 Million in Stolen Funds, Ends Investigation

Odaily reports: Cross-chain swap service Near Intents announced that the $3.8 million in funds stolen in a previous exploit has been fully returned, and the team has closed its investigation. Near Intents General Manager Alex Shevchenko had previously issued a 48-hour return deadline to the attacker, providing Bitcoin, BNB, Ethereum, and Solana addresses.The attacker acknowledged wrongdoing in an on-chain message, stating that all funds had been returned and urging others to report issues through the bug bounty program. The incident stemmed from a vulnerability in the interaction between its Omni deposit and withdrawal layer and the main smart contract. Near Intents had suspended services and promised full compensation to users. (Decrypt)

24 accounts hacked, 6.61 BTC stolen; Blink releases attack post-mortem and offers a bounty of up to 3.3 BTC

Odaily News: According to Bitcoin News monitoring, Blink has released a full post-mortem of the September 19 attack: the attack resulted in the theft of a total of 6.61 BTC from 24 customer accounts. The company stated that the vulnerability had existed since October 2023, and any user with a free Blink account could potentially exploit it to gain customer-service-level privileges, take over customer accounts, and raise withdrawal limits. The attacker also obtained partial information from 3,817 accounts, including some phone numbers and email addresses; names, identity documents, addresses, passwords, and seed phrases were not leaked.None of the 24 stolen accounts had two-factor authentication enabled. The attacker attempted 18 withdrawals from 9 accounts protected by two-factor authentication, all of which failed. Blink shareholders have fully reimbursed all affected customers.About 5 of the stolen BTC were subsequently transferred through a cross-chain swap service. Blink is now offering a recovery bounty of up to approximately 3.3 BTC, with half of any successfully recovered funds to be distributed to those who provide valid leads and to the Bitcoin circular economy.

Dormant 13-Year-Old Whale Address Activated, 1,346 BTC Yields ~478x Unrealized Gains

A dormant whale address that has held 1,346 BTC for 13 years was recently activated and conducted a test transfer of 0.001 BTC. The address's cost basis is approximately $240,000, now valued at around $115 million, representing an unrealized gain of roughly 478 times.

Andrew Tate-linked wallet transfers $1.87 million in HYPE to Binance, cumulative profit reaches $7.24 million

Odaily News: According to on-chain tracking platform Lookonchain, a wallet tagged as an Andrew Tate-linked address transferred 20,950 HYPE, worth approximately $1.87 million, to Binance on October 2.The wallet purchased 122,826.9 HYPE at an average price of $4.48 on November 29, 2024, investing approximately $550,000; it sold 41,430 HYPE within two days, with most of the remainder used for staking.Lookonchain estimates that this address's HYPE holdings have generated a cumulative profit of $7.24 million, representing a return rate of 1317%. The address still holds 42,417 HYPE, valued at approximately $3.7 million at the time based on the then-current price. (Bitcoin.com News)

Well-known trader Killa: De-risking may occur after the midterm elections, at which point we will consider hedging short positions.

Killa stated that he is currently maintaining BTC long positions and does not expect Bitcoin to reach new lows again. He anticipates potential de-risking following the midterm elections and will consider hedging with short positions at that time, contingent on market performance.

Analysts: Bitcoin Power Law Model Releases Signals, Reference Target Price Could Reach $157,800

Crypto analyst Darkfost stated in a post that over the past decade, the amplitude of Bitcoin price fluctuations around the "Power Law" trendline has been gradually decreasing, with market cycle volatility trending toward convergence. The oscillator index peak has declined from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025, while its daily change standard deviation has fallen from 4.81 to 2.47, representing a drop of approximately 49%. Darkfost added that as of October 3, the model’s oscillator index stood at +34.5, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $84,700. Based on that day's model parameters, an oscillator index reaching +100 would correspond to a Bitcoin price of roughly $157,800, which is about 86% higher than the current price. He also noted that $157,800 is not a fixed target price, but rather a reference level calculated based on current regression parameters. If the Power Law trendline continues to rise in the future, this reference level will increase accordingly.

Worth $10.27 million, an address longed 121.23 BTC on Hyperliquid with 7x leverage for the first time

According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ai Yi, an address opened its first position on Hyperliquid in the early hours of today, longing 121.23 BTC with 7x leverage, worth $10.27 million, at an entry price of $84,918.9, and is currently at a loss of $20,000.

Analyst Murphy: BTC holder concentration is approaching the alert zone, and volatility may increase over the next one to two months.

Analyst Murphy noted that BTC's recent chip concentration is approaching the alert zone, and combined with consecutive doji formations on the daily chart, the market may face significant volatility over the next one to two months.

知名交易员:BTC目标价仍看7.9万美元,最深回调或至6.9万至7.1万美元

Doctor Profit表示,其已在8.62万美元做空BTC,并计划在8.65万至8.95万美元区间追加空单,当前目标价仍为7.9万美元。

$457M in Bitcoin Dormant Addresses Moved 5,419 BTC

Odaily News: In September, long-dormant Bitcoin addresses transferred out 5,419.45 BTC, worth approximately $457 million, involving 94 transactions. The transfer volume was lower than August's 6,427.59 BTC but higher than July's; among them, wallets created in 2016 transferred out 1,556.53 BTC across 13 transactions.Wallets created in 2013 transferred out approximately 888.91 BTC across 26 transactions. Another roughly 57 transfers involved Bitcoin that had been dormant for 12 to 16 years; September 6 saw the highest transfer volume, reaching 1,620.39 BTC. (Bitcoin.com News)

Glassnode:高位买入的比特币投资者正在抛售,两类群体处于亏损状态

Glassnode 监测显示,当前以高位价格买入比特币(BTC)的投资者正在进行抛售。目前有两类群体处于账面亏损状态:一类是 1 至 2 年前以 9.7 万美元买入的持有者,另一类是 6 至 12 个月前以 8.9 万美元买入的持有者。

Analyst: If Bitcoin falls back to $82,500 and whales resume accumulation, a buying opportunity may emerge

Odaily News: Analyst Ali posted on X platform that Bitcoin recently faced resistance in its attempt to reach $87,000, during which whales took profits and sold over 30,000 BTC. Meanwhile, $87,000 also marks the upper boundary of a price channel that has been suppressing BTC for over the past two weeks.Ali stated that in the short term, attention should be paid to the lower boundary of the channel at approximately $82,500. If BTC falls back to that level and whales begin accumulating again, it would serve as a confirmation signal for considering buying the dip, with the next rebound target set at $87,000.

Analysts: Stablecoin market cap recovery remains sluggish, insufficient liquidity may constrain Bitcoin from breaking new highs.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to limited liquidity inflows into the crypto market, the stablecoin market cap remains sluggish in its recovery. Since May this year, the stablecoin market cap has contracted by $14 billion, signaling notable capital outflows from the market. Although conditions have shown slight improvement since September, with the stablecoin market cap rising by roughly $4 billion and reclaiming around $270 billion, and signs of a trend reversal appearing to materialize, the overall rebound remains relatively weak. Further driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs will require substantially greater liquidity support from the market.

Analyst: Bitcoin's realized market cap grew 1.2% over the past 30 days, doubling its growth rate.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that over the past 30 days, Bitcoin's realized cap (Realized Cap) grew by 1.2% (approximately $12.8 billion), reaching $1.079 trillion on October 2. Compared to the 0.66% growth rate a month earlier, its growth pace has doubled.

SEC Approves 3x Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas ETPs

Odaily News: Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has just approved 3x long Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas ETPs under the Securities Act of 1933.

On October 2, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $120 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $64.69 million.

Odaily reports, according to Lookonchain monitoring, on October 2, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of 1,383 BTC, approximately $120 million; over the past 7 days, the net inflow was 2,467 BTC, approximately $214 million. Ethereum ETFs recorded a single-day net outflow of 23,436 ETH, approximately $64.69 million; over the past 7 days, the net outflow was 8,133 ETH, approximately $22.45 million.

QCP: Bitcoin's current rally is primarily driven by capital flows and positioning, with tonight's non-farm payrolls serving as the key short-term test.

QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin broke out of its recent $82,500 to $85,700 consolidation range, briefly reaching $86,913 to mark its highest level since September 23. Meanwhile, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts stood at approximately 5.4%, indicating that this rally is more heavily driven by spot capital than leverage. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in August and September, respectively.