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Odaily reports: CryptoQuant on-chain analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently clearly dominated by futures trading, with the ratio of Binance spot-to-futures trading volume at approximately 0.12, meaning futures account for roughly 90% of trading volume. Meanwhile, Binance BTC open interest fell from $10.6 billion to $9.2 billion over the past week, but spot demand remains weak, preventing the ratio from improving.Darkfost noted that the current rally is primarily driven by the futures market, and spot buying remains the missing piece. If spot demand fails to follow through, this rally could become unstable.
according to Lookonchain monitoring, today U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs recorded a net inflow of 511 BTC, approximately $42.99 million; over the past 7 days, cumulative net inflows reached 15,196 BTC, approximately $1.28 billion. Spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs recorded a net inflow of 5,648 ETH yesterday, approximately $15.37 million; over the past 7 days, cumulative net inflows reached 168,733 ETH, approximately $459 million.
老牌交易员 Peter Brandt 将比特币本周期峰值预期上调至 30 万至 60 万美元，并提示 10 月初或现技术性回撤。其同时看空 XRP 投资价值，建议投资者将加密仓位控制在 10% 以内并以 BTC 为主。
Odaily reports: Veteran trader Peter Brandt says Bitcoin has likely bottomed out for this cycle and entered a new bull market. He has raised his cycle top forecast from the previous $250,000 to $300,000 to $300,000 to $600,000 by late 2029, adding that hitting $500,000 is "very likely."However, Peter Brandt warns that Bitcoin could pull back to $65,000 to $66,000 in early October to flush out momentum chasers. Brandt is also skeptical of XRP's investment value, calling it a "fool coin," and said that XRP having payment use cases and Ripple having banking partners does not necessarily mean its value will rise. (Cointelegraph)
K33 Research head of research Vetle Lunde analyzed that over the past 7 days, CME and perpetual contract BTC open interest combined decreased by 49,000, the largest single-week decline since October 2025, during which market volatility remained subdued and funding rates continued to trend downward.Unlike previous major deleveraging episodes that were accompanied by forced liquidations, this round of deleveraging is closer to proactive profit-taking, with overall market sentiment becoming more rational.
Odaily News: Some analysts expect that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise to 6%, driven by concerns over the federal fiscal deficit, debt growth, and capital competition. Since the end of 2023, the yield has risen to 5.23%, while Bitcoin's price has roughly doubled to $86,000.If yields rise due to fiscal concerns, investors may seek alternatives to government debt, and Bitcoin could benefit; if the rise in yields is driven by the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy again, Bitcoin could come under pressure. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued to climb, with some analysts forecasting it will reach 6% (it last hit this level in 2000). Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, emphasized that the drivers behind the yield increase are critical: if the rise stems from concerns over fiscal deficits and term premiums, investors may shift to alternative assets such as Bitcoin, constituting a bullish development; if it stems from the Federal Reserve resuming its rate-hiking cycle, it would repeat the 2022 scenario of Bitcoin plummeting 64%. Data shows that since the end of 2023, the 10-year yield has risen by 135 basis points to 5.23%, while Bitcoin’s price simultaneously doubled to around $86,000, validating the "decoupling" narrative between Bitcoin and Treasuries amid fiscal concerns. Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, also noted that the U.S. fiscal deficit accounts for approximately 6% of GDP. Coupled with tech giants undertaking large-scale fundraising that competes with Treasuries for the same pool of capital, yields will continue to be pushed higher.
According to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com), Bitcoin's adjusted LTH (Long-Term Holders) MVRV metric has exited the mild pressure zone, with the 6-month to 10-year holding cohort collectively returning to profitability. Analyst @_Crypto_glass noted that this is not a phase of deep or sustained losses, but rather a constructive recovery for this holder group, sending a positive signal for the current market cycle.
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto posted on X platform that the adjusted long-term holder MVRV has recovered from a shallow stress zone to approximately 1.35, with the long-term holder group spanning 6-month to 10-year holding periods re-entering an overall profitable state.As of September 27, Bitcoin's price was approximately $84,500, while the long-term holder realized price was approximately $62,700, with the spot price sitting about 35% above their cost basis. This metric had fallen below 1.0 five times between June and August, and touched a 2026 low of approximately 0.94 on June 30.
According to Trader T data, the total net inflow into US Bitcoin Spot ETFs was $31.07 million on September 28. Specifically, BlackRock IBIT saw a net inflow of $54.84 million, Grayscale BTC (Mini Trust) recorded a net inflow of $10.32 million, Fidelity FBTC had a net outflow of $10.90 million, Grayscale GBTC experienced a net outflow of $23.19 million, and all other products had zero fund flows.
In response to previous on-chain monitoring showing Strategy transferring out 3,568 BTC ($297 million), Arkham analyst Emmett Gallic clarified that the involved BTC was neither sold nor transferred to an external platform, but rather constitutes routine fund transfers within Fidelity's custody system. Fidelity treats client-deposited BTC as fungible assets and reallocates funds across different addresses as needed; these addresses are already labeled as "Fidelity" custody addresses on Arkham.
Odaily News: In response to Lookonchain's monitoring of Strategy transferring out 3,568 BTC over the past 9 hours, onchain researcher Emmett Gallic stated that the related transactions are not a sale or asset relocation, but rather normal internal fund rebalancing within Fidelity Custody.He stated that Fidelity treats all BTC deposited by clients as fungible assets and will transfer funds as needed, and the related addresses have also been labeled as Fidelity on Arkham.
according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, of the 5,500 BTC originally held by Bitget's BTC Protection Fund, 3,215.28 BTC has now flowed out, worth approximately $266 million, with 2,284.71 BTC remaining on-chain.Ai Yi stated that approximately 13 hours have passed since the most recent Bitget hot wallet transfer, and the first wave of BTC withdrawal demand has likely been largely processed. Future attention can be directed toward ETH withdrawal activity.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, over the past 9 hours, Strategy transferred out 3,568 Bitcoin, valued at $297 million.
Odaily reports: Cryptocurrency exchange Binance recorded net outflows of more than 13,800 BTC on September 22, the largest single-day net outflow since 2023. At prices at the time, the assets were worth about $1.15 billion. Binance's Bitcoin reserves fell from about 705,000 BTC to about 685,000 BTC within four days, a decline of about 20,000 BTC, worth about $1.66 billion.On-chain analyst Darkfrost said Binance's Bitcoin outflows are part of a broader accumulation trend, with some investors choosing to self-custody their Bitcoin. The outflows may also be related to institutional custody, internal wallet management, and other operational arrangements, and cannot be viewed on their own as proof of accumulation behavior.Bitcoin pulled back after a recent rally and is currently holding in the $83,000 to $84,000 range, staying above $83,000. Market participants are watching whether this price level can continue to find support and whether Binance's Bitcoin outflows and the decline in exchange reserves will persist. (Bitcoin.com News)
Lookonchain posted on X platform stating that data from September 28 shows Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of 29,300 BTC over the past 7 days, valued at $2.45 billion; over the past 1 day, the net inflow was 1,740 BTC, valued at $146 million.Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of 231,500 ETH over the past 7 days, valued at $624 million; over the past 1 day, the net inflow was 20,400 ETH, valued at $55.12 million.
Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, last week Bitcoin treasury company Strategy increased its holdings by 1,665 BTC at an average price of approximately $85,681, spending about $143 million; as of now, its holdings have grown to 847,666 BTC, with an average cost basis of $75,437, representing unrealized gains of approximately $6.731 billion. During the same period, Ethereum treasury company Bitmine increased its holdings by 17,362 ETH at an average price of approximately $2,710, spending about $47.05 million; as of now, its holdings have grown to 6,001,302 ETH, with an average cost basis of $3,337, representing unrealized losses of approximately $3.925 billion.
According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a certain whale opened a long position of 20,000 ETH at $1,936 when this market cycle began, and currently has an unrealized profit of $14.06 million. This morning, the whale increased its BTC short position by opening a short of 650 BTC at $84,057, worth $53.68 million, with a current unrealized profit of $950,000.
According to Chaohang Research, JPMorgan’s September 24, 2026 research report indicates that U.S. corporate financing surplus in Q2 2026 approached 2% of GDP, marking the highest level for non-crisis periods since data tracking began in 1952. Non-financial corporate surplus stood at approximately 1.5%, the highest for non-crisis periods since 1958. Global equity buybacks are projected to reach $1.7 trillion in 2026, with U.S. corporations accounting for $1.3 trillion. Bitcoin’s production cost is approximately $85,000; after trading below this threshold for 280 consecutive days, the price has finally broken through. Network hash rate and mining difficulty have decreased by roughly 19% and 15%, respectively, from their peaks last October. JPMorgan notes that cash flow growth outpaces capital expenditures, indicating that the corporate sector as a whole does not require additional financing. This financing surplus underpins share repurchases, particularly among firms outside the technology sector. AI-driven capital expenditures are crowding out other spending, keeping overall capex growth moderate, and the exuberance of the late 1990s has yet to return. Bitcoin miners are structurally shifting toward AI operations, lowering forced selling risks, though hash rate expansion has decelerated. Bond futures momentum indicators have moved into more extreme bearish zones, with standard deviation scores for the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German Bunds reverting to -1.7 and -1.5, respectively.
Odaily reports: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, as of 16:39, a cumulative total of 3,298.7 BTC has been withdrawn from Bitget. The platform has processed 6,875 withdrawal transactions, with another 3,580 withdrawal transactions awaiting on-chain block confirmations. Bitget has newly opened a BSC network BTC withdrawal channel. The related information was disclosed and confirmed by GracyBitget and xiejiayinBitget during a livestream.