JPMorgan: Corporate financing surplus nears 2% of GDP, share buybacks support US stocks

According to Chaohang Research, JPMorgan’s September 24, 2026 research report indicates that U.S. corporate financing surplus in Q2 2026 approached 2% of GDP, marking the highest level for non-crisis periods since data tracking began in 1952. Non-financial corporate surplus stood at approximately 1.5%, the highest for non-crisis periods since 1958. Global equity buybacks are projected to reach $1.7 trillion in 2026, with U.S. corporations accounting for $1.3 trillion. Bitcoin’s production cost is approximately $85,000; after trading below this threshold for 280 consecutive days, the price has finally broken through. Network hash rate and mining difficulty have decreased by roughly 19% and 15%, respectively, from their peaks last October. JPMorgan notes that cash flow growth outpaces capital expenditures, indicating that the corporate sector as a whole does not require additional financing. This financing surplus underpins share repurchases, particularly among firms outside the technology sector. AI-driven capital expenditures are crowding out other spending, keeping overall capex growth moderate, and the exuberance of the late 1990s has yet to return. Bitcoin miners are structurally shifting toward AI operations, lowering forced selling risks, though hash rate expansion has decelerated. Bond futures momentum indicators have moved into more extreme bearish zones, with standard deviation scores for the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German Bunds reverting to -1.7 and -1.5, respectively.