News linked to both this project and an event.
Analyst Darkfost states that the cost basis for Bitcoin's short-term holders (STH) has confirmed crossing above that of active long-term holders (LTH), sending a bull market confirmation signal historically observed for the fifth time. Active long-term holders refer to coin supplies transferred at least once over the past seven years, a definition designed to exclude long-dormant balances. Currently, over 3.5 million bitcoins held for more than ten years remain dormant, with this supply segment growing by an average of approximately 8,000 to 30,000 coins per month. Darkfost believes current market momentum is shifting positively, partially driven by capital inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although the possibility of this signal failing remains.
According to Trader T data, on September 23, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $346.98 million, marking a cumulative net inflow of $2.65 billion over five consecutive days. BlackRock IBIT saw net inflows of $166.29 million, Fidelity FBTC recorded net inflows of $143.24 million, Morgan Stanley MSBT posted net inflows of $32.41 million, and Ark Invest ARKB logged net inflows of $5.04 million.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, as Bitcoin declined, a whale bought another 536.93 BTC 6 hours ago, worth $45.28 million. Over the past 20 days, this whale has accumulated 2,460 BTC, worth $194 million, with an average purchase price of $78,966.
Odaily News — According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale has closed all 1425 BTC long positions, worth $119 million, with a profit of about $1.5 million.
Odaily reports, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, 3 hours ago, Morgan Stanley's MSBT Bitcoin ETF received 1,100 Bitcoin from Coinbase Prime, worth approximately $93.89 million, marking the largest single inflow since the fund's inception.
Odaily News: Canadian Bitcoin exchange and wallet company Bull Bitcoin stated that due to the Liquid Network attack on September 6, users are temporarily unable to redeem L-BTC back to Bitcoin through the platform, and redemption operations are still pending resumption.Bull Bitcoin expects the related redemption service to potentially resume within 30 days, but stated that this expectation is not guaranteed. Due to its reliance on the L-BTC redemption mechanism to balance inventory, the platform has temporarily closed inbound Lightning Network payments.In this attack, the attacker transferred out nearly 4,000 Bitcoin from the protocol, later returning approximately 3,400; currently still holding 598.50 Bitcoin, valued at over $51 million. Liquid Network stated on September 17 that block production, network transactions, and L-BTC transfers have returned to normal. (Bitcoin.com News)
veteran trader Peter Brandt stated that his long-term ETH chart shows that if ETH breaks above $5,000, the price could eventually rise to $8,600. The higher target marked on the chart is $8,674.50.Brandt emphasized that publishing a chart or making a price judgment is not the same as an actual trade, and those claiming to have completed a trade need to provide proof of the trade. His commodity trading career began in 1976, and he founded Factor Trading Co. in 1980. (Bitcoin News)
Odaily News: According to Lookonchain monitoring, on September 23, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of 7,107 BTC, valued at $609 million; over the past 7 days, the net inflow was 20,738 BTC, valued at $1.78 billion. Ethereum ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of 67,597 ETH, valued at $184 million; over the past 7 days, the net inflow was 86,117 ETH, valued at $234 million.
Odaily reports: Although the S&P 500 is near its all-time high, market breadth remains weak. As of Wednesday, 257 constituents of the S&P 500 had fallen below their 200-day moving average. In contrast, the crypto market has performed relatively strongly, with 88 of the top 100 tokens by market cap (including BTC and ETH) trading above their 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and most of them also above their 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. CoinDesk noted that most crypto assets, including BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL, remain significantly below their all-time highs. Dick Lo, founder and CEO of TDX Strategies, said institutional capital continues to flow in through ETFs, driving momentum in major crypto assets and some altcoins, and noted that the key level to watch for BTC is currently $90,000, with the 2026 high of $97,900 as a medium-term target. Bernardo Brites, co-founder and CEO of Trace Finance, said that funds are currently flowing in primarily through ETFs rather than stablecoins, making the market more prone to pullbacks. (CoinDesk)
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that Bitcoin ETF year-to-date fund flows have turned positive. Since Bessent indicated an increase in bond purchases, a total of $4.6 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs over the past month.
Crypto analyst PlanB (@100trillionUSD) tweeted outlining Bitcoin price scenario projections for the latter half of the current halving cycle (April 2024 to April 2028) (not predictions, for reference only): • October 2026: Break through $100,000 • Before Christmas 2026: Set a new all-time high, exceeding $126,000 • 2027 to 2028: Break through $232,000 (approximately four times the $58,000 bottom) PlanB emphasized that the above are merely scenario analyses and not price predictions, reminding investors to assess risks independently (DYOR).
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that despite Bitcoin’s price consistently climbing, demand recovery remains uneven. Spot demand is at negative 180,000 BTC, while futures demand remains at positive 54,000 BTC; average total demand has improved from negative 188,000 BTC to negative 126,000 BTC over several days. Institutional selling pressure has notably eased, and the Coinbase premium index briefly flashed positive signals. ETF demand has strengthened considerably compared to earlier this summer, with cumulative additions of approximately 70,000 BTC, and net demand since the start of 2026 has also rebounded to negative 17,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the 30-day average net flow on exchanges shows sustained capital outflows throughout September, indicating the broader market continues to lean toward accumulation.
According to Trader T data, on September 22, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $714.74 million. BlackRock IBIT saw a net inflow of $350.35 million, Fidelity FBTC $257.42 million, and Morgan Stanley MSBT $99.01 million; Grayscale Minis BTC, ARK Invest ARKB, and VanEck HODL recorded net inflows of $4.95 million, $570,000, and $2.44 million, respectively, while capital flows for other products were zero.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju noted that as the Bitcoin market cap expands and institutional holdings increase, this bull cycle could deliver a 3- to 5-fold gain rather than a parabolic rally exceeding 10x as seen previously, with subsequent bear market declines likely to be relatively moderate. He pointed out that throughout this cycle, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has consistently remained above 1, meaning the broader holder base remains in profit without meaningful unrealized losses; meanwhile, the rising realized market value, early whales halting their distribution, and futures whales building substantial long positions near local bottoms all indicate that funding conditions are improving. He believes Bitcoin’s cyclical extremes are gradually narrowing, and as the market matures, it may further develop monetary attributes.
Odaily News: On September 21, a white hat actor transferred 40.71 BTC linked to the Coldcard vulnerability in a single transaction valued at approximately $3.31 million. The transaction consolidated funds from 11 addresses and included an OP_RETURN message pointing to the Crypto Recovery Trust.Alex Thorn, head of Galaxy Research, disclosed that the broader consolidation involved a total of 52.37 BTC across multiple clusters of attacker addresses, accounting for approximately 2.8% of the funds tied to the vulnerability. A firmware flaw in Coldcard devices dating back to March 2021 resulted in insufficient mnemonic seed randomness, with the total funds involved peaking at approximately $130 million. (Decrypt)
Prominent trader Bonk Guy stated that Bitcoin has reclaimed the $86,000 level and is in a clear uptrend. As fourth-quarter seasonal patterns approach, he believes USELESS deserves close attention. Bonk Guy further noted that USELESS has outperformed mainstream crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE across multiple timeframes during this cycle. Indicators including whale inflows, perpetual open interest, trading volume, on-chain holder counts, and liquidity are all trending upward. He suggests it could emerge as this cycle's "Dogecoin/SHIB," with a market capitalization potentially exceeding $10 billion. USELESS currently represents only a small fraction of the approximately $38 billion meme coin market. Should the meme coin sector see a repricing in the fourth quarter, its upside potential could expand even further.
Odaily News: A Bitcoin address created on July 14, 2012, moved all 600 BTC on Tuesday, worth approximately $51.6 million at the time of transfer. The address had been inactive for nearly 14 years prior to this.The BTC was initially worth about $4,512, when Bitcoin was priced at roughly $7.52. The funds were transferred from a legacy address to a SegWit P2WPKH format address, then split into two new addresses, with on-chain records showing no indication that they have been sold. (Bitcoin.com News)
Wintermute released its weekly market report, as the Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12-0 on September 21 to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. Sixteen officials project at least one more rate hike this year, with inflation not expected to return to the 2% target until 2029. Two key catalysts previously monitored by the market—the FOMC rate decision and the CLARITY Act—have both materialized: the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate (49-50 vote, falling short of the 60-vote threshold), prompting the SEC and CFTC to immediately state that they would establish crypto regulatory frameworks under their current authority. The market adjusted for only a single trading session before reclaiming its losses. BTC traded between $75,000 and $81,000 this week, closing at $81,159—the first time since last November it has breached the 50-week moving average; ETH gained 6.7%, trading in the $2,350–$2,600 range. Regarding ETF capital flows, net outflows totaled $746 million from Tuesday to Wednesday, partially reversed by $593 million in inflows from Thursday to Friday, resulting in a five-day net outflow of approximately $6 million. Outflows triggered by the CLARITY Act were nearly fully offset within 48 hours. At the start of this week, both BTC and ETH broke above the range resistance ahead of the U.S. equity market open. Fueled by approximately $250 million in short liquidations, BTC briefly surged to $86,000, setting an eight-month high. Wintermute’s analysis suggests:
According to Odaily, Bitcoin News posted on X that Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF MSBT recorded its largest single-day net inflow of $61.7 million yesterday since its launch in April. Since inception, the ETF has seen only one net outflow day, on May 29, amounting to approximately $5.3 million.
Famous trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the 2018 Bitcoin crash, shared a long-term outlook on Ethereum, stating that with the current Ethereum price around $2,794, a breakout above the $5,000 resistance could see prices rise to approximately $8,600. Additionally, Peter Brandt believes XRP's long-term target could reach $5.40.