News linked to both this project and an event.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out in a post that the Bitcoin S2F regression model is gradually approaching historically extreme undervalued zones. This model is used to measure the deviation of market price relative to S2F fair value, thereby identifying significant overvalued or undervalued phases.
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale has withdrawn an additional 340 BTC, worth $20.34 million, from Binance. This whale currently holds 2,510 BTC across two wallets, valued at $150.3 million.
CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 表示，比特币在再次测试 6 万美元关口后，币安与欧易相关存款地址出现大规模比特币流入，其中币安流入超过 22 万枚 BTC，欧易流入超过 33 万枚 BTC，合计超过 55 万枚 BTC，显著高于两平台年内平均水平。
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out in a post that the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Profit/Loss model has fallen into the range commonly seen during historical bottoms, indicating the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup. However, the analyst emphasized that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed—the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than being merely a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound triggered by a short squeeze may occur currently, if the profit/loss ratio fails to rebuild sustainably, it should not be regarded as a signal of structural recovery. Overall, signs of BTC internal cleanup are emerging, but historical patterns indicate the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully exiting this bear market.
Miller Tabak strategist Matt Maley and 22V Research technical strategist John Roque believe Bitcoin is at a key technical indicator level.Matt Maley stated that if Bitcoin declines further from its current level of around $60,000, it could amplify negative investor sentiment. Although Wall Street firms continue to invest in digital assets, retail investors, who have historically been the main force driving cryptocurrency rallies, have shifted their focus to high-growth AI and tech stocks. Recent significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs indicate waning investor enthusiasm. Cryptocurrencies are also showing signs of decoupling from the stock market.John Roque noted that Bitcoin is retesting its first downside target of $60,000. If it breaks below this level, it implies a potential drop to $400,000. Matt Maley added that Congress might pass a crypto structure bill with clearer rules, which would reduce uncertainty and encourage institutional participation in the long run. Furthermore, Bitcoin ETFs experienced their largest monthly outflow since 2024 recently. (CNBC)
The report states that this indicator suggests the market is entering a bottoming-out phase, possibly presenting a strategically significant accumulation opportunity.
According to Cointelegraph, Fidelity Digital Assets has rebutted concerns in a new research report that Bitcoin’s long-term security will deteriorate as mining rewards decline, asserting that the network’s economic incentives remain sufficient to secure the blockchain over the long term. Authored by Fidelity research analyst Daniel Gray, the report reiterates that Bitcoin’s security depends not only on block rewards but also on transaction fees and market-driven economic incentives, which will continue to motivate miners to protect the network—and render sustained attacks prohibitively costly. The report challenges a longstanding critique that Bitcoin’s security is weakened every four years by the halving event, which reduces new coin issuance. It notes that since April 20, 2024, Bitcoin miners have received a subsidy of 3.125 BTC per block—down from 6.25 BTC in the previous halving cycle—but this reduction in issuance has not translated into diminished miner incentives, as Bitcoin’s price appreciation has more than offset the decline in block rewards. Gray points out that average daily miner revenue has surged from approximately $26,300 during Bitcoin’s first halving cycle to over $40.2 million today. The report also notes that although Fidelity views the long-term incentive structure as sound, many publicly listed mining companies are currently facing financial pressure, with some diversifying into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. VanEck recently
according to on-chain analyst Yu Jin’s monitoring, whale sat0shi777 (0x50b...9f20) opened a long position of 468 BTC at a price of $62,729 on the 24th, valued at $29.38 million. Subsequently, BTC dropped below $60,000. Yesterday morning, after the decline, it opened a short position of 47,500 ETH at a price of $1,536, valued at $72.94 million. After that, ETH did not continue to decline.Currently, its positions worth $102 million are simultaneously experiencing floating losses, with the BTC long position floating a loss of $1.86 million and the ETH short position floating a loss of $1.23 million.
The Kobeissi Letter posted an analysis pointing out that since April, US gold and Bitcoin-related ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows of approximately $12 billion, while semiconductor ETFs recorded net inflows of about $20 billion over the same period, with capital clearly concentrating on tech growth sectors. This trend accelerated further in mid-May: outflows from gold and Bitcoin ETFs more than tripled, while inflows into semiconductor ETFs doubled. In terms of market performance, the world's largest gold ETF, GLD, has fallen about 13% since early April, while the Bitcoin ETF IBIT has dropped approximately 12% over the same period. In contrast, semiconductor ETFs SOXX and SMH have risen by roughly 81% and 60%, respectively. The analysis suggests that the current market exhibits a clear "risk appetite shift," with retail capital accelerating its flow from safe-haven assets and crypto assets into high-growth semiconductor and AI-related sectors, driving the market in an unprecedented manner.
According to Farside Investors data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of $1.7873 billion this week. Specifically, BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Grayscale’s GBTC saw net outflows of $1.304 billion, $315 million, and $135 million, respectively.
Odaily Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated in a recent CNBC interview that he remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin, while strongly criticizing Michael Saylor and his strategy of continuously purchasing Bitcoin by financing through preferred stock, arguing that this "financial engineering" approach is negatively impacting the crypto market.Garlinghouse pointed out that Strategy's reliance on issuing preferred stock (such as STRC) to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases essentially acts as a distraction in the market rather than creating long-term value. He emphasized: "Financial engineering does not create long-term value; the long-term value of digital assets comes from real utility." He specifically noted that STRC's stock price has fallen to a discount of approximately 25% from its par value, which he described as a "strong vote of no confidence" in that financing structure. Against the backdrop of market pressure this week, Strategy's common stock hit its lowest level since February 2024, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $59,000.On the market front, a CryptoQuant report indicated that if the dividend structure continues, Strategy's cash buffer has decreased from over seven years to approximately 14 months, suggesting a pause in Bitcoin purchases and a rebuilding of reserve funds. Currently, STRC trading below $100 has also rendered its "issue tokens—buy Bitcoin" funding flywheel temporarily ineffective. However, Benchmark-StoneX analyst Mark Palmer believes this model reflects more of a "decline in efficiency" rather than a systemic breakdown. Meanwhile, Ripple continues to adopt an industry-contrarian perspective, reiterating the distinct value path of its ecosystem asset XRP compared to Bitcoin. (CoinDesk)
Analyst Ai pointed out that over the past decade, Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA) has been regarded as a core indicator for judging "cycle bottoms." Historically, every time the price touched or fell below this moving average, it was accompanied by a long-term macro accumulation window, followed by a strong upward cycle. Reviewing historical performance:August 2015: Touched the 200-week MA and then started a bull run, with cumulative gains exceeding 8,500%December 2018: Bounced approximately 267% after testing this moving averageMarch 2020: Confirmed support after bottoming out due to the pandemic liquidity shock, followed by a rise of 1,125%June 2022: Fell below for the first time and remained below the moving average for a long period until reclaiming it in December, which triggered a rally of approximately 680%In the current market, the 200-week MA is located around $63,500, while Bitcoin's current price is trading below $60,000. Analysts believe this has already entered a typical long-term value accumulation zone.At the same time, analysts also caution that potential downside risks remain. In the short term, a pullback to $54,000 is possible, and in extreme cases, testing the $40,000 range cannot be ruled out. However, overall, adopting a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for gradual position building is more suitable.Regarding key observation points, the $63,500 level is seen as the "bull-bear dividing line." If Bitcoin can firmly reclaim and confirm the 200-week MA as macro support on a higher time frame, historical patterns suggest it could signal that the early stages of a new bull cycle have already begun.
Analyst Ali Charts believes that Bitcoin is currently in a historically significant long-term accumulation zone. He points out that the 200-week simple moving average has historically served as a key demarcation line between Bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles; regaining and holding above this level could signal the early stage of a new bull market.
the price of Bitcoin fell to around $59,400 today. On Thursday, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw net outflows of nearly $691 million, marking the largest single-day outflow since May 27.At the same time, approximately $10.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire on Friday. Over the past 24 hours, the total value of liquidated leveraged cryptocurrency positions across exchanges exceeded $1.1 billion, with long position liquidations reaching $875 million. Bitcoin is currently down about 53% from its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025. Its price fluctuated between $58,189 and $60,724 over the past 24 hours, bringing its total market capitalization to around $1.18 trillion. (decrypt)
U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continued to experience net outflows yesterday, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing approximately $444.5 million in net outflows and Ethereum ETFs recording $12.8 million in net outflows.
according to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ai Yi, after closing a short position worth $165 million and taking a profit of $3.277 million, a whale opened another short position worth $70.76 million the same night. The whale currently holds short positions on 912.93 BTC ($54.98 million) and 10,000 ETH ($15.83 million), with entry prices of $59,137 and $1,532 respectively, resulting in an unrealized loss of $1.418 million.
According to on-chain monitoring, Garrett Jin has again placed a $21.73 million short position in ZEC; part of it has already been executed. Meanwhile, his long BTC position is currently underwater by over $20 million.
Odaily Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse criticized Strategy and its Chairman Michael Saylor's Bitcoin purchasing funding model during a CNBC interview on Friday, stating that "financial engineering cannot create long-term value" and that the long-term value of digital assets should ultimately be driven by real-world utility.Garlinghouse said the Saylor team is not focused on the right direction and believes this approach has already harmed the overall crypto market. He also emphasized that he remains bullish on Bitcoin but opposes Strategy's strategy of continuously adding BTC positions through complex funding structures.His criticism was primarily directed at Strategy's model of issuing preferred stock to fund Bitcoin purchases. STRC is one of the preferred stocks issued by Strategy, carrying an annual dividend obligation of 11.5%. Recently, STRC traded at a discount of approximately 25% to 26% compared to its $100 face value. Garlinghouse described this performance as a "severely negative assessment" of Strategy's approach.
According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a whale who previously shorted BTC, ETH, and SOL with 20x leverage over the past four days—earning $4.4 million—has re-entered the market after closing that position, opening new 20x-leveraged short positions: 912.9 BTC (approximately $54.55 million) and 10,025 ETH (approximately $15.65 million), totaling a short exposure exceeding $70 million.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale who previously shorted Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana with 20x leverage has fully closed all positions after holding for 4 days, accumulating a profit of approximately $4.4 million. Subsequently, the address quickly re-entered the market to establish new high-leverage short positions: shorting 912.9 BTC (approximately $54.55 million); shorting 10,025 ETH (approximately $15.65 million).