News linked to both this project and an event.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the Bitcoin price has been below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) for more than 9 consecutive months. Historically, such prolonged phases of short-term holder losses are often highly correlated with bear market cycles. Currently, the Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis is approximately $70,700 and continues to act as a resistance level above. The market trend in May already reflected this pressure, when BTC surged to near $82,000 to test the region before quickly encountering a pullback.
Odaily Killa stated on X platform that BTC currently has a concentration of long liquidations in the $49,000-$56,000 range, involving leveraged positions at 3x, 5x, and 10x. If a final capitulation wick occurs in the next 1 to 2 months, it could touch this zone and mark the bottom.
According to Odaily, BTC is approaching the lower support line of the long-standing power law price model, approximately $58,000, indicating it is nearing a historical accumulation zone. Bitcoin's undervaluation relative to its trend line and to gold has dropped to levels seen at the bottoms of 2018 and 2022, but Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer has not yet declared it to have bottomed.Timmer expects that, in the absence of a liquidity catalyst, Bitcoin may trade sideways near the support level for several months. He noted that speculative capital has rotated from Bitcoin into gold and is now flowing into semiconductor stocks. (CoinDesk).
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly analysis report. According to his Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Pressure Model, the current buying and selling pressure from short-term holders is cooling down slightly, but buying power remains dominant.
Odaily Odaily Planet Daily reported that Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, stated that the market has misinterpreted Michael Saylor's adjustments to Strategy Inc.'s bitcoin strategy, and the recent selling pressure stems from confusion over this strategy rather than a change in bitcoin's long-term outlook. Strategy Inc. is shifting bitcoin from being a reserve accumulation asset to serving as collateral to support its STRC preferred stock. Kendrick maintains the bitcoin price forecast of $100,000 by the end of 2026. As of press time, BTC was trading at $64,322.89, and Strategy's stock MSTR closed at $94.64 on Friday. The outstanding notional value of STRC is approximately $10 billion, which Kendrick believes makes the preferred stock heavily overcollateralized due to its bitcoin backing. (Bitcoin.com News).
According to Cointelegraph, although Bitcoin's cumulative gain since July has approached 10%, marking the best performance in the same period in nearly four years, multiple market analysts warn that the current trend is highly similar to the bear market period in 2022, and the market may turn weak again starting from August. Looking back at 2022, Bitcoin once rebounded nearly 17% in July, but subsequently fell about 14% and 3% in August and September, respectively. Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin currently basically aligns with the historical average July performance, but the third quarter has historically been one of the weakest quarters for Bitcoin, with an average gain of only about 6%. The gradual decline in market liquidity and trading volume may be an important reason leading to the weak performance in the third quarter. Rekt Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin's price trend in 2026 shows high similarity to previous bear market cycles. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may continue the summer rebound trend in the second half of July, but subsequently face a new round of adjustment.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that since October 2025, the market value of holdings of Bitcoin treasury companies has declined from $396 billion to $272 billion, a cumulative drop of over $100 billion. Data shows that although these companies' Bitcoin holdings increased from 953,000 to the current 1.14 million, most of the Bitcoin reserves were accumulated at high prices. November 2024 to October 2025 was the most aggressive buying phase for corporate treasury companies, when Bitcoin prices were mainly in the $75,000 to $125,000 range. Currently, the pace of accumulation has nearly stalled. Whether these enterprises will follow Strategy's example and choose to sell holdings at low levels remains to be seen.
据 Trader T（@thepfund）数据，昨日比特币现货 ETF 净流入 9042 万美元，其中贝莱德 $IBIT 流入 8681 万美元；VanEck $HODL 流入 361 万美元；其余各家 ETF 当日净流入均为零。
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a whale unstaked 440.822 BTC (approximately $28.27 million) from Core (@Coredao_Org) within 1 hour and transferred it to a new wallet address.
Odaily Odaily报道 据链上分析师余烬监测，Tether reserve address, which uses 15% of its quarterly profits to purchase BTC, deposited 4 BTC (worth $250,000) to Binance for testing 5 hours ago. A month ago, this address transferred 204.3 BTC (worth $14.36 million) to Bitfinex when the BTC price was $70,000. Yu Jin stated that it is unclear whether the address has sold the BTC, but it had previously transferred the BTC purchased in the quarter to the chain on the last day of each quarter. More than ten days after the end of Q2 this year, no BTC has yet been seen withdrawn to the reserve address.
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), the US government transferred 4,036 ETH (worth approximately $7.22 million) from a forfeited wallet of the BTC-e exchange to a new address at 1:53 AM Beijing Time on July 11. BTC-e is a cryptocurrency exchange that was shut down by US authorities in 2017, and its operators were arrested on suspicion of money laundering.
according to Onchain Lens monitoring, 4 minutes ago, the US government transferred 4,036 ETH, worth approximately $7.22 million, from its seized BTC-e wallet to a new address.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, Galaxy Digital transferred 2,500 BTC worth $160 million in the past hour, with most of the funds flowing into exchanges.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, U.S. ETFs saw a net outflow of 1,791 BTC today, valued at $114.58 million, with a 7-day net inflow of 5,098 BTC, valued at $326.11 million; Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of 27,487 ETH, valued at $49.09 million, with a 7-day net inflow of 37,036 ETH, valued at $66.15 million.
Standard Chartered stated that it maintains its Bitcoin price prediction of reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026, believing that the recent market decline triggered by Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) related activities is not due to a deterioration in the company's balance sheet, but rather a strategic adjustment that the market has not fully understood.Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, noted in a report that Strategy's recent behavior is disrupting short-term market expectations for Bitcoin. The market had previously accepted the company's narrative of "never selling Bitcoin," but now Strategy appears to be shifting towards a more complex capital operation model. How clearly the company can communicate this change will determine when market pressure eases.Currently, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoins, representing approximately over 4% of the total 21 million Bitcoin supply. From 2020 to mid-2025, Strategy's mNAV (Market Value of Enterprise / Bitcoin Asset Value) was consistently above 1, allowing the company to raise funds through stock issuances to purchase Bitcoin and achieve shareholder value growth. The commitment to "never selling Bitcoin" was central to this model gaining market acceptance. However, with the current mNAV approaching 1, the leverage effect of this financing model is weakening.Kendrick believes Strategy is transitioning from a "Bitcoin accumulation tool" to a "Bitcoin credit support tool." This involves using its Bitcoin holdings as the credit basis for its perpetual preferred stock, STRC. Currently sized at approximately $10 billion, STRC is the largest financial instrument launched by Strategy, offering an annualized dividend rate of 12%, paid semi-monthly in cash, and is designed to maintain a price near its $100 par value through interest rate adjustment mechanisms.Standard Chartered indicated that STRC is currently trading around $90, while Strategy's dollar reserve for paying dividends stands at approximately $2.55 billion, covering an estimated 17.4 months of dividend expenses.Kendrick stated that Strategy's policy adjustment allowing for Bitcoin sales does not necessarily mean the company will continuously sell. He believes that as long as the market believes the new capital structure arrangement can stabilize the STRC price, Strategy may not actually need to sell Bitcoin. He compared this mechanism to a central bank's commitment to "do whatever it takes": mere restoration of market confidence may mean actual intervention never occurs. (The Block)
Odaily Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin miner BitFuFu has released its operational mining data for June 2026. The company mined a total of 125 Bitcoins in June, a 29.4% decrease month-over-month; self-owned computing power contributed 70 Bitcoins, while cloud computing power operations yielded 55 Bitcoins. As of the end of the month, the company's total Bitcoin holdings stood at 1,671, a decrease of 184 Bitcoins compared to May. The official explanation for the decline in holdings is primarily due to cash outflows from client settlement payments and prepayments to equipment suppliers. (wsj)
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the current market's unrealized profit proportion is 65.8%, below the historical average of 81%, while the unrealized loss proportion is approximately 34.2%, indicating that the overall market remains dominated by profitable holdings.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin short-term holders' realized pressure model has once again shifted to a buyer-dominated stance at a low point, mirroring the rebound pattern following the correction in February. The current buyer pressure score is approximately 30%, higher than the seller pressure of 22%. Seller pressure has compressed to a multi-month low, with coins transferring from short-term holders to stronger buyers, consistent with the characteristics of an accumulation phase.Bitcoin is currently priced at $63,900, near the lower bound of the short-term holder cost basis range around $61,600. This is about 4% higher than the latest buyer cost basis and nearly 10% lower than the comprehensive cost basis of $71,000. Adler Jr. pointed out that as long as the $61,600 lower boundary holds, the demand structure remains intact; if this level is lost, the newest holders will also fall into losses.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $95.31 million yesterday, with Fidelity (FBTC) recording an outflow of $63.25 million, Ark (ARKB) an outflow of $39.93 million, VanEck (HODL) an inflow of $5.36 million, Morgan Stanley (MSBT) an inflow of $2.17 million, and multiple ETFs including BlackRock (IBIT) recording zero flow for the day.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although Strategy's Bitcoin selling plan has triggered market attention, it is not the core risk facing Bitcoin. The real structural threat lies in the fact that blockchain applications such as tokenization, payments, and settlements are increasingly occurring on permissioned chains (Permissioned Blockchain), rather than on public chains such as Ethereum. If this trend continues, the public chain ecosystem will face issues such as declining liquidity and weakened capital inflows, ultimately dragging down Bitcoin valuations. The analysts also warned that the proliferation of bank-built blockchain infrastructure and tokenized deposits could undermine the position of stablecoins in institutional payments; regulated alternatives such as SWIFT's blockchain plan, the digital euro, and the digital yuan also constitute competitive pressure. However, the analysts also pointed out that if hybrid public-private chain models emerge, stablecoin regulation becomes clearer, or Bitcoin continues to be held as "digital gold", the aforementioned risks may be mitigated.