News linked to both this project and an event.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin Net Supply Ratio has been in negative territory for a consecutive week, recently dropping to -0.075, triggering a buy signal. This indicator is based on the profit/loss status of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXO), used to evaluate the profit or loss level of the overall market supply, thereby assisting in judging whether an accumulation phase is forming.
Bitcoin briefly dropped to $57,700, its lowest level since September 2024, before recovering to $58,800; the market saw $395 million in liquidations, with open interest rising to 768,000 BTC. On Deribit, put options across all maturities traded at a premium over call options, with one block trade betting on a Bitcoin put option expiring in September with a strike price of $50,000. (CoinDesk)
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a newly created wallet "0x93A" deposited 4 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened a 20x leveraged long position of 200 BTC. Currently, there are suspected to be 4 associated wallets holding a combined 20x long position of 800 BTC, with a total value of approximately $47 million.
that, according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, four addresses believed to belong to the same whale or entity have taken long positions on BTC with 20x leverage on June 26 and today. Each address opened a long position of 200 BTC, totaling 800 BTC, with total positions exceeding $46.88 million and an unrealized loss of $450,000.
According to Reuters, Citibank has lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum from $112,000 to $82,000 and from $3,175 to $2,240, respectively. Citi also lowered its 12-month ETF net inflow expectation from $10 billion to zero, noting that waning investor interest, ETF fund outflows, and slow progress in US digital asset legislation are exerting pressure on the market outlook.
CryptoQuant CEO stated in a post that Bitcoin's capital efficiency is continuously declining—in 2011, a net inflow of only $5 million was sufficient to double the price, while this cycle requires approximately $101 billion to achieve the same effect. He believes that the next parabolic bull market cycle may require net capital inflows in the trillions of dollars, and Bitcoin must transition from retail-dominated ETF trading to a core macro asset. If Bitcoin's actual market capitalization can surpass $1 trillion, the next bull market is still likely to occur, while gold's current market capitalization has already reached $27 trillion, indicating considerable growth potential in comparison.
According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), whale 0xaeaa opened a 1100 BTC ($64.95 million) short position with 20x leverage, with a liquidation price of $67,914.56.
the U.S. SEC stated on Tuesday that it is publicly seeking comments on the regulatory approach for "novel ETFs," evaluating whether existing fund registration and listing processes need adjustments. This review comes amid the rapid expansion of crypto ETFs and an increase in applications for prediction market-related ETFs.SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the regulator wants to hear market opinions to ensure that the U.S. ETF market can effectively serve investors while continuing to grow and innovate. Since Atkins took over as SEC Chairman in April 2025, the SEC has approved multiple crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, including products tracking assets like SOL and DOGE.Currently, market attention is shifting towards prediction market ETFs linked to political and economic outcomes. The SEC has not yet approved such funds for listing and trading and has delayed several related applications. Atkins previously stated that the SEC will evaluate these products in a "transparent and prudent" manner.In this request for comment, the SEC is asking whether a standardized listing framework should be established for ETFs meeting specific criteria and whether certain novel ETFs need to register as investment companies. TD Cowen analysts believe that this request for comment could potentially lead to rule changes as early as 2027, allowing the SEC to permit a wider range of ETF types, including products based on event contracts, crypto assets, and single-stock strategies. (The Block)
According to Lookonchain monitoring, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 5,151 BTC today, with a 7-day net outflow of 33,921 BTC; Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of 6,778 ETH, with a 7-day net outflow of 119,815 ETH.
Jiang Zhuoer stated that the current Bitcoin market is exhibiting multiple bearish signals, including continuous selling pressure on spot Bitcoin ETFs and simultaneous reductions in holdings by multiple institutions; the Coinbase premium index has turned significantly negative, with the discount level approaching the range seen prior to the sharp declines at the end of January and the end of May; meanwhile, funding rates in the contract market remain positive and open interest is at high levels, indicating that leveraged funds remain relatively concentrated. In his view, the combination of the above factors implies that market volatility risk is rising.
Odaily Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen has lowered its price target for Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (STRC) from $400 to $260, a reduction of approximately 35%, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. The firm noted that the company's newly launched digital credit capital framework is constructive, with continuous improvements in credit transparency and capital flexibility.Analysts explained that this valuation adjustment is unrelated to the new capital framework, but is primarily driven by lowered Bitcoin price expectations: the BTC price forecast for end-2026 has been reduced from $140,000 to $100,000, and the end-2027 forecast from $190,000 to $135,000. Even after the adjustment, the $260 price target still implies over 200% upside from the closing price of $92.68. The investment bank also acknowledged that this valuation differential appears relatively high.On the capital front, Strategy has rebuilt $2.55 billion in USD reserves. Last week's issuance of 12 million common shares was not used to increase Bitcoin holdings. Existing cash can cover more than 17 months of interest and preferred stock dividends, and combined with BTC monetization capacity, can cover 26 months of expenses. The company has received approval for $1 billion in common stock buybacks and $1 billion in preferred stock buybacks, marking a shift from one-way equity issuance to proactive capital structure optimization. The $1.25 billion in Bitcoin monetization proceeds will replenish cash reserves, while the preferred stock dividend rate has been raised from 11.5% to 12%, alleviating the previously significant 26% discount issue. (TheBlock)
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading narrowly between $59,000 and $60,000 for the fifth consecutive day. However, analysts warn that this "calm" market condition may conceal greater risks, with the key issue being that this oscillation is occurring within a downtrend.FxPro's Chief Market Analyst, Alex Kuptsikevich, stated that the current price action resembles Bitcoin's consolidation between $55,000 and $70,000 from March to October 2024, but the contexts differ. The previous consolidation occurred in a rising market, whereas the current oscillation is below support levels. Additionally, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending downward, indicating the market remains bearish.Kuptsikevich noted that if this consolidation pattern breaks to the downside, rather than forming a base for a rebound, Bitcoin's next significant support zone could be near the $40,000 level.On-chain data is also signaling pressure. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost indicated that long-term holders may be engaging in loss-making selling behavior. In historical cycles, this phase is typically accompanied by short-term pressure, but it may also become a long-term buying opportunity.Meanwhile, market demand remains relatively weak, with active address counts and on-chain transaction activity both at recent lows. Financial pressure on corporate Bitcoin giant Strategy has also heightened market concerns. Its preferred stock, STRC, recently fell to around $71, while its common stock dropped approximately 25% in a week, hitting its lowest level since February 2024.Strategy previously stated that it might sell over $1 billion worth of its Bitcoin reserves to improve its financial situation. This is seen as a significant shift from founder Michael Saylor's "never sell" strategy.Additionally, a strengthening US dollar and continued capital flows into AI-related assets in the US stock market are exerting pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets like Bitcoin. BTC is currently on track to end the second quarter with a decline of approximately 13%, while US stocks remain strong due to the AI investment boom. (CoinDesk)
According to crypto analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), since 2026, over 100,000 BTC have flowed out of ETF provider reserves; if calculated from the historical high of ETF holdings in October 2025, cumulative outflows have exceeded 160,000 BTC, with estimated losses surpassing $11 billion, setting the largest drawdown record in ETF history. The current BTC realized price is approximately $73,000, with most holders already in floating losses, and bear market pressure extending to top institutions such as BlackRock. Meanwhile, 84% of altcoin prices have fallen below the 200-day moving average, every rebound attempt has ended in failure, and the altcoin market has become the hardest-hit sector in this bear market.
According to the weekly market report released by BIT Official, heavy selling in semiconductor and AI stocks on June 23-24 triggered defensive adjustments by institutional capital. BTC fell below $60K on June 24, hitting a low of ~$59,000 (intraday decline of approximately 5%). Approximately $994 million in liquidations occurred during the same period (of which approximately $780 million were long positions). Approximately $1.2 billion in nominal Put positions at the $60K level forced market makers to short, exacerbating the downward trend. As of the weekend, BTC was quoted at ~$59,992, down 6.9% for the week; ETH was quoted at ~$1,578, down 9.3% for the week. In terms of volatility, DVOL only rose slightly (BTC 44.1→45.7, ETH 57.3→59.5), front-end skew tended to stabilize, and convexity returned to normal. The institutional defensive hedging ratio decreased from 29.6% to 19.7%, shifting towards two-way balance, overall showing characteristics of an "orderly decline" rather than panic selling. In terms of ETFs, for the week ending June 26, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.79 billion, marking the second-highest weekly outflow record in history, and have seen net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks; IBIT net assets decreased to approximately $44.4 billion, with average holders having an unrealized loss of approximately 40%. Strategy purchased only 520 BTC this week (approximately $34.9 million), significantly slowing down compared to the previous two weeks. MSTR stock price has fallen below its BTC book value, and the flywheel effect has been affected
according to Lookonchain monitoring, two whales are shorting BTC, with total position sizes exceeding $100 million. One whale is shorting 900 BTC with 40x leverage, with a short position size of $53.69 million; the other whale is shorting 800.75 BTC with 20x leverage, with a short position size of $47.76 million.
Blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis has released a new methodological proposal aimed at establishing a unified on-chain fund tracking standard framework for law enforcement agencies and investigators to identify address clusters and determine their probable control relationships.The proposal defines the on-chain analysis structure in the form of an "ontology," centralizing the systematic decomposition of the currently industry-wide non-standardized concept of "cluster" (address clustering) into wallet segments and functional roles. It describes on-chain relationships through a two-tier structure: the first layer defines the transaction graph structure, and the second layer assesses the inferred confidence level.Chainalysis states that the framework aims to enhance the interpretability and legal applicability of on-chain forensic methods and has been validated through its practical experience in cases related to the U.S. Department of Justice, including analysis applied in the Bitcoin Fog mixing service case. The company's Chief Scientist, Jacob Illum, noted that the proposal's goal is to answer "on what evidentiary basis can these addresses be considered to belong to the same entity," but emphasized that on-chain analysis alone cannot directly identify end-user identities and must still be combined with legal investigative methods involving centralized entities such as exchanges.Chainalysis stated that the standard proposal is currently open for industry discussion, aiming to promote a more unified technical standard for on-chain analysis methods in the fields of law enforcement and compliance. (CoinDesk)
据 CrowdFundInsider 报道，Bitfinex 分析师表示，比特币当前在 6 万美元下方持续承压，较历史高点 13 万美元以上已显著回落，市场此前押注的持续上涨趋势正面临明显逆转压力。现货市场出现“结构性撤离”，ETF 持续资金流出尚未结束，同时加密财库类需求渠道明显降温，使市场缺乏关键买盘支撑。
on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode has released its latest weekly market summary, noting that Bitcoin has briefly stabilized around the $60,000 level. However, the market is characterized by strong defensive traits and a lack of bullish confidence.The spot market is range-bound, with trading activity slightly increasing. Yet, capital continues to flow out on a net basis, and market liquidity is primarily driven by distribution, with no large-scale accumulation observed. The derivatives market is persistently deleveraging, with traders prioritizing downside hedging protection and showing low willingness for directional long positions. Funding rates remain low, indicating a generally weak risk appetite. Institutional pressure is significant, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs are collectively in a state of unrealized losses, with continued net capital outflows and low willingness among institutions to increase positions.Glassnode states that the current market is undergoing a period of structural adjustment and capital contraction. The $60,000 level provides only temporary support, and there are no signs of recovery in spot orders, derivatives positions, or institutional capital. For a sustained upward trend to emerge, a significant restoration of confidence among buyers is required.
on-chain analyst Ember CN posted on platform X, stating that MicroStrategy did not make any BTC purchases last week. Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) currently holds a total of 847,363 BTC, valued at $50.842 billion, with an average cost price of $75,651, an unrealized loss of $13.262 billion, and an unrealized loss rate of 20.7%. Ethereum treasury company BitMine (BMNR) last week purchased 27,084 ETH at approximately $1,648 each, valued at $44.63 million. It currently holds a total of 5.70004 million ETH, valued at $8.978 billion, with an average cost price of $3,399, an unrealized loss of $10.397 billion, and an unrealized loss rate of 53.6%.
On-chain analyst Ember posted on X platform, stating that Strategy currently has $2.55 billion in dollar reserves, which can support interest payments for one and a half years. Strategy may sell some BTC at any time soon, raising up to $1.25 billion to replenish dollar reserves, which equates to approximately 20,600 BTC at current prices. Strategy may also conduct share buybacks of up to $1 billion.