News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News – In the latest weekly report, Garrett Jin, agent for the “1011 Insider Whale,” stated that despite oil prices rising to around $95 this week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking above 4.8%, and market expectations for a September Fed rate hike climbing to approximately 70%, Bitcoin has held its key support at $76,600 and has since recovered to above $77,000.Garrett noted that the $75,000 to $80,000 range has formed a substantial new cost basis, providing firmer support for the market. If Bitcoin closes above $82,500 on the daily chart and subsequently holds around $80,000 during a pullback, it would signal that the market is absorbing selling pressure and gearing up for further strength. Conversely, if the daily close falls below $76,600—accompanied by weakness in at least two of the following metrics: ETF flows, Coinbase premium, and 7-day net realized profit/loss—it would constitute a clearer downside warning.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion in August, but September opened with two-way flows, recording net outflows of around $237 million on Tuesday. Garrett believes that Bitcoin holding key support amid heightened macro rate pressures suggests recent spot demand is not entirely driven by short-squeeze dynamics. He maintains a constructive outlook for Bitcoin's performance toward year-end, though he notes that future trajectory will depend on whether U.S. Treasury yields can halt their sustained upward trend.
According to CoinDesk, as the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note climbed 58 basis points year-to-date to 4.81%, the U.S. Dollar Index rose merely 0.9% to 99.22, signaling the breakdown of the traditional "higher yields drive a stronger dollar" logic. Japan's government bond yields surged 90 basis points this year, yet the yen fell to a 40-year low, and Germany's 10-year yield rose 45 basis points concurrently without the euro showing significant strength. Analysts note that markets may have begun interpreting rising yields as a signal of fiscal strain rather than fiscal robustness. This logical shift poses a potential tailwind for Bitcoin — amidst expectations of government debt monetization and currency devaluation, hard assets with inelastic supply, such as Bitcoin and gold, may attract safe-haven capital inflows.
Odaily News: Analyst Killa stated on the X platform that Bitcoin is forming a descending wedge on the daily timeframe, and their plan remains unchanged, with expectations that the market will maintain range-bound consolidation. Even if the price breaks through this pattern, caution is needed regarding potential fakeouts, as the current market has not yet experienced a sufficiently long period of range-bound consolidation. The market spends approximately 80% of its time in range-bound consolidation and 20% in trending moves or pullbacks. Given that the market has already experienced a significant upward move, it is more likely entering a consolidation phase, so do not chase rallies. Unless market action proves otherwise, one should expect the market to remain in range-bound consolidation.
Odaily News - Echo Base, an institution focused on stable digital asset companies, assisted in forming the BitMart Creditors' Committee on September 2 to represent users holding frozen assets, and has retained legal counsel to evaluate recovery options, including filing for unfunded bankruptcy proceedings.On August 6, Echo Base proposed a funding package of up to $10 million to support BitMart in filing a pre-negotiated bankruptcy application, but received no response from BitMart. Echo Base stated that its actions stem from BitMart's failure to respond to the restructuring proposal and users' withdrawal requests.Sonn Law Group has launched an investigation into users with frozen assets of $500,000 or more on BitMart, assessing potential claims and asset recovery options. Echo Base CEO Roshan Dharia stated that BitMart's employee plan can only sustain operations until January 2027, and the longer the delay, the fewer viable options remain. (Bitcoin.com News)
On-chain analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin has long been influenced by the halving mechanism, forming an approximately four-year supply shock cycle. However, as Bitcoin's annual new supply rate declines to around 0.8% and will further drop to 0.4%, the internal impact of the halving is gradually weakening. Meanwhile, traditional financial markets typically follow a six-to-eight-year short-term debt cycle. Woo believes that Bitcoin may currently be in a transition stage from the four-year cycle to a six-to-eight-year cycle.
As tracked by Trader T, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded total net inflows of $101.15 million on September 2. Among them, BlackRock IBIT saw net inflows of $115.45 million, Bitwise BITB recorded net inflows of $4.19 million, and Morgan Stanley MSBT had net inflows of $7.30 million; Grayscale GBTC experienced net outflows of $56.21 million. Fidelity FBTC, ARK ARKB, Invesco BTCO, Franklin EZBC, Valkyrie BRRR, VanEck HODL, and WisdomTree BTCW all posted zero net inflows for the day.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi, Maji has lost $6.161 million over the past seven days, gained $4.202 million over the past 30 days, and incurred a cumulative account loss of $30.7 million. Currently, Maji still holds BTC and ETH long positions worth approximately $128 million. Of these, the 39,100 ETH long position shows an unrealized loss of $980,000, with a liquidation price of $2,342.78, approximately $60 away from the current price; the 440 BTC long position shows an unrealized profit of $175,000.
On-chain data shows Bitcoin's "apparent demand" has turned negative due to the exhaustion of spot buying, compounded by outflow pressure from US stocks and ETFs. Consequently, BTC failed to effectively break through the key resistance level of $77,000, briefly dipping to $76,400 before rebounding.
Odaily News, glassnode report: The short squeeze in mid-August drove Bitcoin's rebound, pushing it above $80,000 on August 27. However, the price subsequently encountered resistance in the long-term supply zone above, retreating to around $76,000 and triggering a series of long liquidations. Currently, the $83,000-$86,000 range has accumulated a large number of potential short liquidation positions, while the $60,000-$63,000 zone below holds undigested long liquidation clusters, leaving Bitcoin sandwiched between the two.On-chain data shows that when Bitcoin traded near $78,000 in May this year, approximately 65% of the supply was in profit. When the price returned to the same level at the end of August, that proportion had risen to 68%. The summer redistribution of coins has pushed short-term holders' cost basis to around $71,000, and at this same price level, more profitable coins are now activated, increasing potential selling pressure. Combining cost basis and coin distribution, $62,000-$65,000 serves as an accumulation support zone, while $83,000-$86,000 represents a concentrated supply zone for long-term holders.During the rebound, the 7-day average net inflow for US spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked at $290 million per day, but secondary market daily trading volume remained at around $3 billion, significantly lower than the previous expansion phase. Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury briefly fell to 4.6% following the Treasury's buyback announcement on August 19, but returned to 4.8% in just 8 trading days, hitting a new cycle high.In the options market, short-term optimism has cooled while long-term options demand persists. Open interest for Deribit and IBIT options expiring on September 25 stands at approximately $14 billion, with a substantial portion of positions concentrated above $80,000, which could serve as an important volatility and positioning anchor in the coming weeks. Until the supply above $83,000-$86,000 is absorbed, Bitcoin will continue to trade in a range, with $62,000-$65,000 serving as the primary downside reference zone.
Odaily News: Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that over the past six months, Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. stocks has been lower than that of gold, small-cap stocks, emerging market equities, and even U.S. Treasuries. Eric Balchunas noted that he verified the data after seeing related posts. Bitcoin's correlation has remained around 0.40, while correlations for gold and U.S. Treasuries have increased. Eric Balchunas said that although this time window is relatively short, the situation is still worth noting and does not support the claim that "Bitcoin is only correlated with QQQ."
Odaily News: Wintermute posted on X that the crypto market has rebounded over the past two weeks, with ETF inflows turning positive and stablecoin issuance stabilizing. However, to usher in a full new cycle, the market still needs new sources of capital. Historically, VC and ICO funding in 2017-2018, stablecoins in 2020-2021, and ETFs and digital asset treasury companies in 2024-2025 have all accelerated bull market cycles. RWA could become the next major liquidity channel. Data shows that stablecoin supply grew by over $120 billion within a single year; ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $63 billion, while digital asset treasury companies accumulated over $115 billion in holdings.In comparison, RWA attracted approximately $16 billion in capital over the past 12 months—only about one-tenth of the peak scale seen from ETFs and treasury companies in the previous cycle. However, the value of on-chain tokenized assets has roughly doubled within a year to over $30 billion, and this growth continued even during periods of stablecoin supply contraction.Wintermute believes that RWA capital initially flows into traditional assets such as Apple stock and U.S. Treasury funds, rather than directly into crypto assets. But once these funds enter the blockchain, the friction involved in rotating toward Bitcoin, altcoins, and DeFi is expected to decrease significantly. As the regulatory framework gradually becomes clearer and tokenized Treasuries and funds begin gaining acceptance as collateral on trading platforms and within DeFi, RWA could drive a market cycle that unfolds at a more moderate pace and lasts longer.
According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), the Bhutan government address has once again transferred out 400 BTC, worth approximately $30.62 million.
According to Hyperbot data reported by Odaily, a whale has opened large short positions on BTC, ETH, and XYZ100, with the total value of these short positions reaching nearly $107 million. Among them:BTC 10x short position totals $64.21 million, with unrealized profits of $1.39 million;ETH 20x short position totals $27.53 million, with unrealized profits of $1.02 million;XYZ100 20x short position totals $15.1 million, with unrealized profits of $220,000.Additionally, this address holds small long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil, as well as short positions in MRVL, Silver, SMSN, and others.
Japanese publicly listed company Remixpoint announced that it sold all of its holdings of ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE on September 1, totaling 878.8 million yen and realizing a gain of 117.8 million yen. Following the sale, the company's remaining cryptocurrency holdings consist solely of approximately 1,506 Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin market demand has declined again. Although short-term holders continue to take profits and selling pressure remains steady, apparent demand has turned negative once more, indicating a significant weakening of demand over the past few days. He noted that this shift is also reflected in Bitcoin's price structure, with the current trend showing weakness. If demand does not recover in the short term, Bitcoin could face further downside risks.
According to CoinDesk, following US air strikes on Iran, global risk assets came under pressure and the cryptocurrency market declined in tandem. Over the past 24 hours, major large-cap tokens saw widespread declines, with Solana and Tron dropping more than 3%, Ethereum falling around 2%, and XRP declining nearly 2%. Bitcoin recorded a relatively smaller decline of approximately 1%, trading at around $77,500.
According to Trader T data, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $236 million on September 1. Among them, BlackRock IBIT saw a net outflow of $201 million, Fidelity FBTC recorded a net outflow of $43.67 million; Bitwise BITB saw a net inflow of $8.38 million, while all other products recorded zero flows that day.
TD Cowen has set a year-end target price for Bitcoin at $97,500, representing approximately 25% upside from its recent trading level of around $78,000. Analyst Lance Vitanza concurrently scaled back a previously more bullish forecast, primarily due to recent weakness in Bitcoin's price. The firm had previously projected that Bitcoin would reach $141,277 by the end of 2025, rising to the $177,000–$225,000 range in 2026 and 2027.
According to Odaily, on-chain analyst Ember monitoring reported that Machi has stopped out and closed part of his long positions due to their proximity to liquidation prices. His ETH long position is $50 away from the liquidation price, and his BTC long position is $1,800 away. Previously, Machi had grown $150,000 into $11 million through roll-over long positions, but funds have recently fallen back to $4.5 million.
Citing Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, The Wolf of All Streets (@scottmelker) notes that approximately 2%-3% of the inflows into BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) have come from users who previously self-custodied Bitcoin, with Balchunas believing this proportion still has room to grow. He also points out that for Bitcoin users seeking censorship resistance, ETFs cannot replace on-chain self-custody; however, for those merely looking to hedge against currency debasement, ETFs represent a highly attractive store of value. Additionally, other analysis indicates that Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF has seen zero outflows since its launch five months ago, which is viewed as a reflection of the current market's strong confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class.