News linked to both this project and an event.
According to charts released by independent analyst Markus Thielen on July 27, 2026, the Bitcoin price and Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends show a clear divergence signal. The RSI recently fell to the 30% oversold zone, then rebounded to around the 50% level, while the BTC price also recovered from near the lows to approximately $64,645. Notably, the purple downward trend line in the chart shows that since the June 2025 high (approximately $125,000), BTC has been overall in a downward channel; the current price is still suppressed by this resistance line, and whether it can effectively break through will be key to judging subsequent trends.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X, stating that a significant liquidity cluster has formed below the current Bitcoin price, concentrated between $61,500 and $60,000. In the coming days, there is a possibility of a market pullback that could trigger liquidations within this liquidity zone. Typically, areas where a large number of stop-loss orders and leveraged positions gather are prone to attracting price volatility and become key targets for market liquidity release. However, this analysis is based on on-chain liquidity structure and does not necessarily mean the market will definitely drop to the aforementioned range. Investors should still pay attention to subsequent price trends and changes in market sentiment.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that the holdings of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH, those holding coins for over 6 months) have reached a new all-time high, currently exceeding 16.3 million BTC. Their average cost basis is approximately $49,400, yielding only about 30% in unrealized profit at the current price, which is relatively low. In comparison, the net unrealized profit for long-term holders reached as high as approximately 340% in January 2025.Darkfost also noted that towards the end of the last bear market, long-term holders were collectively in a state of approximately 20% unrealized loss, and the market ultimately experienced a deeper correction. This suggests that the market could still see further corrections in the future, potentially pushing long-term holders back into loss territory. However, this is not necessarily a guaranteed repetition of historical patterns. He advises investors to prepare for both market rallies and corrections.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out in a weekly report analysis that the US 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to approximately 4.7%, approaching the upper limit of the range over the past five years. The high-interest rate environment is tightening financial conditions, raising financing costs and asset discount rates, and increasing pressure on risk assets.
Currently, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH) at a loss has exceeded the level during the FTX collapse and is approaching the 2018 bear market phase. The current Bitcoin Realized Price is approximately $50,000. Historically, every cycle has retested the Long-Term Holder Realized Price, so there remains a possibility of retesting this level in the future.
Whale Alert monitoring shows an unknown wallet transferred 4,690 BTC to OKX, valued at approximately $300.6 million at current prices.
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Odaily reports: Derivatives whale "Set 10 Big Goals First" updated their position, stating that their previously established BTC long position with 4x leverage has triggered the trading invalidation range and exited at a stop loss.Previously, this address opened the position at approximately $64,940, holding 2,933.635 BTC, with a position value of around $447 million and a margin of about $47.48 million. The whale stated that they remain bullish on Bitcoin in the medium to long term, viewing the $60,000 area as a key support zone, and if there are no significant changes in market structure, Bitcoin still has a high probability of challenging the $100,000 level before March next year.
Odaily News As Bitcoin prices have experienced a significant correction, publicly listed companies that had accumulated large BTC holdings are facing multiple challenges, including falling stock prices, debt pressures, and a deteriorating financing environment. Some of these companies are now starting to sell Bitcoin, repay debts, and even pivot towards artificial intelligence (AI) data center operations.Strategy pioneered the "Digital Asset Treasury (DAT)" model, continuously purchasing Bitcoin through financing and borrowing, inspiring a wave of other listed companies to follow suit. However, as the BTC price has fallen approximately 50% from its peak of around $126,000 in October 2025, the stock prices of related companies have also shrunk significantly, forcing them to reassess their BTC accumulation strategies.This week, shareholders of London-listed company Satsuma Technology approved the liquidation of all 668 BTC, returning capital to shareholders, while proceeding with delisting. Another London-listed company, The Smarter Web Company, sold 178 BTC to repay its convertible debt.Additionally, Sequans Communications has sold 1,025 BTC and further sold nearly 80% of its remaining holdings to repay convertible bonds. The company stated it will not continue purchasing Bitcoin in the future and plans to sell the remaining approximately 658 BTC.Nakamoto's stock price has fallen approximately 99% since its SPAC listing in May 2025. The company recently sold about 284 BTC, raising approximately $20 million for working capital. Of its remaining approximately 5,342 BTC, nearly 70% has been pledged as collateral for loans from Kraken, which market observers believe poses a potential risk event.Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining companies are also adjusting their strategies. Companies like Bitdeer Technologies and MARA Holdings are selling portions of their BTC to repurchase shares, repay debts, and redirect energy resources and computing infrastructure towards AI data center operations.Other companies selling BTC include Empery Digital. Data shows that Strategy has recently sold approximately 3,620 BTC and has authorized further asset sales to maintain its U.S. dollar reserves.However, Strategy remains the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with holdings exceeding 840,000 BTC. The company's CEO, Michael Saylor, stated that while it may sell some Bitcoin in the future to pay dividends, this does not mean the company is exiting its Bitcoin investment.Beyond asset adjustments, management and capital operations at some Bitcoin treasury companies are also changing. Jack Mallers has stepped down as CEO; and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR), affiliated with Adam Back, failed to complete a proposed merger due to the deteriorating market environment.Analysts believe that with rising financing costs and increased BTC price volatility, the "borrowing to buy Bitcoin" treasury model is undergoing a reshuffle. Some companies are shifting from simply hoard
the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data suggests it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, with the risk of another downturn remaining.Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply whose current market price is higher than its acquisition cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the supply in profit still needs sustained validation. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market typically requires two conditions to be met simultaneously:First, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must consistently remain above 1 and not drop below it for several weeks.Second, Bitcoin's Supply in Profit needs to stabilize above 64%.Analysts point out that this cycle has already seen one "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the Supply in Profit briefly rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the 30-day SMA of the LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, remaining a key risk signal for assessing the strength of the market recovery.While the proportion of BTC in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation regarding long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure before determining whether the current rebound will genuinely transition into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily News Japanese regulators are advancing adjustments to the legal framework for digital asset investments, with spot Bitcoin ETFs potentially receiving approval for listing as early as 2028. However, the timeline remains subject to progress in regulation, product review, and tax reform. On July 15, Japan's Diet approved the transfer of Bitcoin and approximately 105 other crypto assets from the framework of the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, removing a major legal barrier for related funds to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Major Japanese financial groups such as SBI Holdings and Nomura are preparing digital asset products. Japan also plans to adjust the crypto asset tax system from a miscellaneous income tax of up to 55% to a separate self-assessment tax rate of approximately 20.315%.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted a significant increase in on-chain activity among the oldest cohort of Bitcoin holders recently. Data shows that BTC holder groups with holding periods of 5 to 7 years and 7 to 10 years have seen their daily UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) movements exceed 5,000 BTC on multiple occasions.Darkfost pointed out that spending UTXOs does not necessarily mean selling. Long-term holders typically move Bitcoin for two main reasons: first, for security purposes, such as transferring UTXOs from an original address when changing wallet addresses; second, to sell assets. However, based on current on-chain data, no significant flow of funds to exchanges has been observed, so there is currently no indication that these long-term holders are engaging in large-scale selling of BTC.It is worth noting that this behavior is occurring as Bitcoin again tests the $60,000 level, a situation similar to market movements observed between February and March this year. The market will continue to monitor whether the activity of long-term holders will further impact the BTC supply and demand dynamics.
According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the current bear market phase for Bitcoin has seen the highest level of realized losses among holders. The 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaked at $1.37 billion in February 2026, 19% higher than the $1.15 billion peak during the 2022 cycle. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin realized losses have dropped by 56.5% to approximately $597 million. Meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that loss-driven selling pressure has significantly weakened, but the market has not yet seen sustained demand recovery, with the decline in losses still outpacing the recovery in profits.From a historical cycle comparison, realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, a new all-time high for this metric. The highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, recorded on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, Bitcoin's realized profit 30DMA stood at $257 million, down 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion recorded on December 10, 2024. It is also down 77.7% from the level on October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $124,710. This metric bottomed out at $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since recovered by 34.7%.Axel Adler stated that profit-driven selling pressure has dropped significantly, and the volume of coins being sold for profit is currently at a low level for this cycle. However, this does not mean that sellers have been completely exhausted, nor does it imply that market demand has recovered. If realized profits consistently rise above the $400 million to $500 million range, it would better confirm a sustained market improvement.Additionally, the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has recovered from a low of 0.26 in June to 0.43, but remains below the 1.0 level. The analyst noted that while the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure is still lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's all-time high, realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 out of the past 291 days. Axel Adler cautioned that if the profit/loss ratio breaks below 0.26 again, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 established on June 30, it could signal further escalation of market pressure.
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Yu Jin (@EmberCN), BTC treasury company @KULRTech transferred another 145.8 BTC (approximately $9.45 million) to Coinbase Prime 5 hours ago. After multiple position reductions over nearly 3 months, its originally held 1,021 BTC (approximately $101 million) now remains at only 100 BTC (approximately $6.47 million). The company's average BTC reserve price was $98,923, while the average selling price was only $74,368, resulting in an accumulated loss of approximately $22.62 million. Currently, its official website's Bitcoin treasury page has been taken offline, and its official social media has not mentioned Bitcoin-related content for a long time; it is widely believed that the company has abandoned its Bitcoin treasury strategy.
According to options expiry data released by [email protected] (@BTC__options), a total of 19,000 BTC options expired this week, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.89, Max Pain at $64,500, and a notional value of $1.2 billion; 125,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.25, Max Pain at $1,875, and a notional value of $230 million. In terms of market conditions, BTC briefly broke through 66K this week but failed to hold. The 65K to 80K range is a high-volume trading zone from the early year's rally, indicating significant upside pressure. Overall IV has retreated to the 35% level, leaving fewer trading opportunities. Notably, the ETH put option ratio has exceeded 1 for 6 consecutive weeks, the longest duration on record, indicating sustained high bearish sentiment in the market. However, some traders are also taking the opportunity to sell Puts to buy the dip. Cryptocurrencies have experienced an 8-month bear market. From a cyclical perspective, the second half of the year may see a certain rebound.
Odaily reports, according to monitoring by Ai Yi, the whale "Set Ten Big Goals First" has temporarily increased its long position to 2,933.63 BTC, with an entry price of $64,940.14. This brings the total position value to $190 million, with an unrealized profit of $209,000.Previously, the whale "Set Ten Big Goals First" posted on X explaining the reason for immediately opening a long position after closing a short position: their medium-to-long-term bullish view on BTC remains unchanged. They mentioned that $60,000 is an important demarcation zone from the last bull run and also serves as the key cost support zone they are focusing on in this cycle.
the whale "First Set Ten Big Goals" posted on platform X, stating that after closing their short position, they quickly re-established a long position because their medium-to-long-term outlook has not changed. They believe the key demarcation zone of the previous bull market was around $60,000, and currently, the mainstream mining cost for Bitcoin is roughly concentrated in the $50,000 to $60,000 range. Last month, Bitcoin quickly recovered after dipping to a low of $58,000, validating the support level in this area. They believe that, barring systemic risks or major fundamental changes, the risk-reward ratio of continuing to short at the current level is not favorable. After Bitcoin completed its consolidation and hand-changing in the $58,000 to $63,000 range, it finished its correction and firmly re-established support around $66,000. The market now has the conditions for further upward movement, and they do not rule out the possibility of a strong bullish candle pushing Bitcoin past $72,000.They also stated that the current valuation of the US stock market, especially the AI-related sectors, is relatively high, which could lead to increased volatility in the future. Furthermore, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks has significantly decreased compared to previous cycles. With continued institutional capital inflows and the strengthening of Bitcoin's asset attributes, Bitcoin is gradually forging its own independent market trend..
Odaily Odaily报道，VanEck数字资产研究主管Matthew Sigel在X平台发文表示，自2026年以来，多家采用数字资产财库（DAT）策略的上市公司已放弃或调整比特币储备策略。其中，Satsuma Technology、Bitdeer、Prenetics、Genius Group、Vaultz Capital、MAIA Biotechnology等公司已出售全部比特币或数字资产持仓；MARA Holdings、Strategy、Nakamoto、Smarter Web Company、Cango等则通过出售部分比特币用于偿债、回购股份或补充营运资金。此外，Exodus、DigitalX等企业也由单纯囤币转向主动管理数字资产持仓。
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a Hyperliquid trader closed a long BTC position worth $21.59 million that had been held for 30 days, realizing a profit of $499,100. The wallet currently has no active perpetual contract positions and holds 106.13 BTC spot, valued at approximately $6.88 million. Its trading profit is $499,100, with a total historical profit of $3.88 million and a win rate of 57%.
: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, "Set 10 big goals first" has closed a short-term short position of 2741.712 BTC, realizing a profit of $2.263 million. Subsequently, a 4x long position of 2015.916 BTC was opened, with a notional value of approximately $131 million. The average entry price for the long position is $64,983.34.