News linked to both this project and an event.
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability on Polymarket that "Donald Trump Jr. posts about LAPTOP on X & Truth Social in September" has dropped to 30%, down 20% in 24 hours.The event rules state: if the designated person publishes qualifying written content related to Hunter Biden's Meme coin LAPTOP on X & Truth Social before 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Merely using the word "LAPTOP" without clearly indicating the token in context does not qualify. Merely referencing Hunter Biden's LAPTOP, the Hunter Biden LAPTOP controversy, its content, related investigations, or any related events does not qualify.Hunter Biden, son of former U.S. President Joe Biden, plans to launch the Meme coin LAPTOP on the Base chain on September 9. According to the official website description, the Meme coin LAPTOP is inspired by Hunter Biden's "laptop scandal" from six years ago. That scandal also dragged then-Vice President Joe Biden into a massive storm.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead of the curve and seize opportunities first.
Odaily News – Andy, host of The Rollup podcast, stated on X that rumors circulating on Capitol Hill suggest the CLARITY Act has almost zero chance of passing. While Polymarket's prediction probability shows 18%, the real odds are likely only around 3%–5%.According to his sources, it is widely understood within Washington D.C. that the bill cannot pass, but no one can openly say so, as the industry has already poured tens of millions of dollars and 18 months of resources into pushing it forward. The Democratic Party's ethical scrutiny over Trump's crypto-related business interests has yet to receive substantive answers. With that in mind, the odds for YES on prediction markets appear somewhat overvalued, and NO might be a direction worth watching.Andy: "The CLARITY Act may subsequently be 'split into several independent bills,' each targeting specific segments of the crypto market. After the CLARITY Act's failure, what may follow are innovation exemptions, regulations, or sub-bills addressing stablecoins, asset tokenization, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets. At this stage, lawmakers appear more inclined toward a segmented, granular approach rather than introducing one sweeping, all-encompassing crypto bill. Based on my conversations with insiders in Washington, this is the more likely scenario in the long run."
Odaily News - Prediction market platform Polymarket launched its perpetual contract product, Polymarket Perps, on September 3. The initial offering covers 10 contracts including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, HYPE, Gold, Silver, WTI Crude Oil, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and a contract tracking SpaceX stock, expanding to 67 markets within hours.The product has no expiration date, with contract prices continuously tracking the underlying assets. It maintains anchoring to spot prices through funding rates settled hourly, with funding rate caps at 4% per hour in both directions. Cryptocurrencies, the S&P 500, crude oil, gold, and silver support up to 20x leverage, while individual stocks and other real-world assets support up to 10x.U.S. traders are unable to place Perps orders and will be directed to Polymarket US, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This arrangement stems from Polymarket's 2022 settlement with the CFTC, in which the company was fined $1.4 million for operating an unregistered swap execution facility and was required to cease related non-compliant contracts. (Decrypt)
Odaily News According to data from prediction market platform Polymarket, the CLARITY Act has a 15% probability of completing legislation and receiving the President's signature by 2026, with related contract trading volume reaching approximately $11.62 million. Kalshi data shows that the probability of this bill or other qualifying crypto market structure bills becoming law before July 1, 2027, is 30%, and 50% before January 1, 2028.In remarks during a hearing on September 2, House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill highlighted the House's passage of the CLARITY Act as a committee achievement, stating that Republican committee members are pushing to codify related reforms into law to make financial rules durable and predictable over the long term.According to the U.S. Senate schedule, the motion to invoke cloture on H.R. 3633 could move to a vote as early as September 15 at 2:15 p.m., typically requiring 60 votes. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on May 14 with 15 votes in favor and 9 against. The subsequent amended text addresses the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), consumer protections, illicit finance, DeFi, intermediary oversight, and disclosure requirements. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News Prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the implied probability of the CLARITY Act passing and becoming law in 2026 is 13%, with related contract trading volume of approximately $11.5 million, a significant decline from the 82% priced by the market in February.The U.S. Senate plans to hold a procedural vote on the bill on September 15. The motion to invoke cloture to start the vote was filed by Majority Leader John Thune and typically requires 60 votes. Prediction market platform Kalshi puts the probability of a Senate vote occurring before October 1 at 91%, with related market trading volume exceeding $1.25 million.The CLARITY Act aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for crypto markets, with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusively regulating spot digital commodity markets, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) overseeing certain securities offerings and exchange activities. The bill still faces disagreements over conflicts of interest between officials and the crypto industry, stablecoin yields, and protections for decentralized finance and non-custodial software developers. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News Crypto asset investment fund C1 Fund (NYSE: CFND) has announced its Q2 2026 performance results. As of June 30, the fund's net asset value (NAV) stood at $42.63 million, with a NAV per share of $6.49. The fair value of its investment portfolio was approximately $33.07 million, accounting for 77.5% of net assets.C1 Fund added Polymarket to its holdings in Q2, bringing its total investment portfolio to 11 companies. These span sectors including crypto payments, custody, compliance, staking, exchanges, development infrastructure, and prediction markets. Its two largest exposures are Ripple (17.5% of net assets) and Payward, the parent company of Kraken (16.9%).As of July 31, C1 Fund has repurchased and canceled 249,300 shares of its own stock at a total cost of approximately $824,000. The company is currently authorized to repurchase up to $3 million worth of shares. Management stated that buybacks conducted when the share price falls below NAV help enhance the per-share NAV for remaining shareholders.Additionally, Kraken and Blockchain.com have publicly announced that they have confidentially submitted potential IPO applications to the U.S. SEC; BitGo completed its IPO in January 2026. C1 Fund also revealed that an early partial issuer repurchase by Ripple generated approximately a 150% return on investment for the fund in just over four months. (Businesswire)
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16 has risen to 57%, with the target rate range potentially rising to 3.75% to 4%; the probability of maintaining the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% stands at 43%.On August 21, the probability of a rate hike was 39.9%, which rose to 57% after the Jackson Hole speech on August 28, and market bets on a September rate cut have essentially disappeared.Polymarket data shows that the probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged is 52%, while the probability of a hike is 48%, with related trading volume exceeding $66.6 million. Kalshi data shows that the probabilities of holding rates steady and hiking are 52% and 48%, respectively, with related trading volume exceeding $23.8 million.In his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the Fed will adhere to its 2% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index inflation target, and noted that his commitment is to discipline rather than specific decisions. Data shows that the 12-month PCE inflation rate is 3.7%, and the 6-month reading is 4.1%. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket US withdrew two NFL player participation contract filings on August 26. The platform had completed certification with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) the previous day and planned to launch the related products no earlier than August 27.On the same day, Polymarket US certified Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana price contracts. All three contract types were submitted in paired form and classified as swaps under the binary options subcategory. Both the NFL contracts and the cryptocurrency contracts fall under the relevant classification.Polymarket US separately filed a confidential treatment request for the NFL compliance analysis documents, seeking permanent non-disclosure on the grounds that public release would reveal trade secrets and give competitors an unfair advantage. As of the time of record, another NFL American football starting eligibility contract remained in certified status. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News – Prediction market platform Polymarket has expanded its partnership with Nasdaq-listed sports data provider Sportradar, gaining access to high-speed data and streaming video content from more than 20 sports associations, providing more real-time official data for sports prediction markets on the platform.The collaboration will bring more official sports event data into Polymarket's betting markets, reducing delays in real-time information transmission during games and enhancing the user experience for prediction trading.This partnership signals that sports leagues are gradually embracing the prediction market model, even as U.S. regulators continue to review the legal positioning of related platforms. As demand for sports predictions grows, Polymarket is strengthening its competitiveness in the sports prediction market by integrating authoritative data sources. (The Information)
Odaily News: The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council issued cease-and-desist letters on January 9 to prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, demanding they stop offering sports-related prediction market products to Tennessee residents, void unsettled contracts, and return customer funds. The Council considers these products to constitute sports betting, requiring platforms to comply with state licensing, taxation, age restrictions, and consumer protection requirements.Kalshi stated that its event contracts are financial instruments regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and are not subject to state sports betting regulations. Users buy and sell contracts, with contract prices reflecting the market's implied probability; when an event occurs, winning contracts settle at $1, while others settle at zero.Traditional betting companies typically accept user wagers and manage risk by setting odds, whereas Kalshi facilitates trading between users, with the platform acting as a matchmaker and prices formed by buyers and sellers. This dispute centers on whether sports prediction markets should be subject to a unified federal regulatory framework or individual state betting licensing regimes. (Bitcoin.com News)
US Army soldiers face disciplinary action for betting on the prediction platform Polymarket, highlighting a compliance conflict between the US military's gambling ban and crypto prediction markets.
Odaily News – Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. soldier, has been accused of using non-public information to trade event contracts on the prediction market platform Polymarket related to the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, earning over $400,000 in profits. U.S. authorities filed fraud charges against him in April.The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) previously filed a civil lawsuit against Van Dyke, but a federal judge has ruled to stay the proceedings pending the outcome of the criminal case. The CFTC has filed a motion to submit an amicus brief, seeking to express its views on defense arguments such as whether event contracts qualify as "swaps" under its regulatory purview.Van Dyke's attorneys filed documents with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York on Monday opposing the CFTC's intervention in the criminal case, arguing that the agency should directly confront its own case. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty to all charges, and the criminal trial could begin as early as late 2026 or early 2027. (Cointelegraph)
Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket "Will the CLARITY Act be signed into law by 2026" prediction event, a new account (0xf53e7cc2894cba22dcdc40de936513a502ef16e3) purchased approximately $825,000 worth of "CLARITY Act will not be signed into law by 2026" shares. The account made two purchases, first buying $599,400 and then $226,000, at prices of 78¢ and 77¢ respectively, acquiring approximately 1,052,900 shares in total.According to market rules, if the CLARITY Act passes both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives before 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2026, and is signed into law by the President, the prediction market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Monitoring by PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of "Trump will declare a national emergency over election interference by year-end" on Polymarket has risen to 35%, up 15% in 24 hours.Trump has previously not ruled out declaring a national emergency over election interference and stated that he may take further action if Congress fails to pass relevant voter eligibility legislation. The prediction market currently places roughly a 35% probability on Trump formally declaring a national emergency before year-end. Going forward, attention will focus on Senate legislative progress and statements from the Trump administration. Slightly revised.This event predicts whether Trump will formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act on the grounds that U.S. elections or election processes have been interfered with, prior to December 31, 2026. Statements, speeches, social media posts, or executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency will not be counted.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the initiative.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Lorenzo Valente, Head of Digital Asset Research at investment firm ARK Invest, stated that Hyperliquid is in discussions with the CFTC and SEC to facilitate the offering of perpetual futures on its public chain by U.S.-regulated companies. He suggested that Hyperliquid acquire Gemini to position it as a U.S.-regulated HIP-3/4 deployer. He noted that Gemini's current market value is approximately $450 million, representing a decline of over 85% from its $3.3 billion valuation at the time of its 2025 IPO. Hyperliquid could obtain Gemini's entire U.S. regulatory infrastructure—including the NYDFS Trust Charter, DCM, DCO, FCM, MTLs, and Broker-dealer—for approximately $450 million.He further proposed that Hyperliquid could use approximately 7.9 million HYPE tokens from its community reserve, valued at around $550 million at $70 per token, to complete the acquisition at a premium of roughly 20% over Gemini's current market value. Following the transaction, Gemini would handle KYC, custody, fiat on/off ramps, brokerage, clearing, and compliance for the U.S. market, while Hyperliquid L1 would provide the underlying market infrastructure, liquidity, and on-chain settlement. He cited Polymarket's acquisition of QCEX as a similar precedent for re-entering the U.S. market, and stated that the core of this potential deal is not acquiring an exchange, but rather securing the regulatory bridge for HIP-3/4 to enter the U.S. market.
Odaily News - Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine stated that the window for the Clarity Act to pass before the November midterm elections is closing rapidly. Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026, he estimated that the probability of the bill becoming law before the midterms is only about 10%.Whitehouse-Levine described the bill as currently being in "August recess purgatory." He noted that the Senate has been working on the legislation for over a year, but as time in the current Congress runs out, completing the legislative process is becoming increasingly difficult.He added that the procedural motion scheduled for September 15 is only the first step in a series of votes needed to move the bill forward, so he remains "hopeful, but realistic about the odds."This assessment is more pessimistic than that of prediction markets. Polymarket currently shows a 21% probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law by year-end, with trading volume exceeding $7 million on the relevant market; Kalshi puts the probability at 23%, down from 50% less than a month ago.
Odaily Odaily News: The White House plans to host a tech industry leaders event with Trump tomorrow, with multiple tech industry leaders expected to attend. According to White House sources, prediction market companies were not invited to this event and will not be present. Previously, sources familiar with the matter revealed that President Trump is expected to attend a crypto industry innovation meeting to be held at the White House next week, engaging in discussions with executives from multiple crypto companies as well as heads of prediction market and AI firms. Executives from companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Kalshi are expected to participate and serve as members of the newly established Innovation Advisory Committee under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The meeting is expected to be held at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, discussing U.S. policies on innovation areas including fintech, crypto assets, prediction markets, and AI. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig and other government advisors are also expected to attend, and Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick may also be present.
韩国广播媒体通信审议委员会于 8月 18 日决定，对海外预测市场平台 Polymarket 采取接入屏蔽措施。该机构认为，Polymarket 提供涉及政治、支付、体育、选举、天气等事件结果的预测交易，具有“赢家通吃”式损益结构，可能助长投机心理，并构成面向韩国用户的非法赌博环境。
Odaily News According to reports, multiple prediction markets are converging on pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and nearly 1% probability of a rate cut. Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option. The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
According to Reuters, people familiar with the matter said that JPMorgan Chase terminated banking services for prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns, asking it to seek another banking institution. Despite this, both parties still maintain business relations, and JPMorgan Chase is also interested in pursuing Polymarket's future IPO underwriting opportunities.