News linked to both this project and an event.
the city of Baltimore and Mayor Brendan Scott have filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing the two companies of violating local gambling laws and regulations on deceptive business practices. The Mayor's office stated on Thursday that the two companies operate "illegal, unlicensed sports betting platforms" and mislead users about the legality and regulatory status of their products. The city of Baltimore argues that Kalshi and Polymarket describe event contracts as trading, but the transactions in question are essentially illegal gambling prohibited under state law. The complaint against Kalshi also names Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase as partners on its prediction market platform, alleging that these companies promote sports contracts as products that can be legally purchased and traded in Maryland. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the companies involved maintain that prediction market event contracts fall under the category of "swaps" within their regulatory scope. Polymarket stated that prediction markets operated on CFTC-registered exchanges are governed by federal law and should not be subject to state and local regulations. (Cointelegraph)
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of an "Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement before the end of August" has dropped to 36%, down 21% in 24 hours; the probability of an Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement before the end of September has dropped to 66%, down 14% in 24 hours.The event rules state: If Oman and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement regarding traffic in the Strait of Hormuz before the specified date (11:59 PM ET), the outcome will be judged as "Yes." A diplomatic agreement refers to a formal agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument between Oman and Iran that aligns on relevant actions, policies, obligations, or commitments. Credible sources include official information from the Omani and Iranian governments, as well as a consensus of credible reports.Iran's Supreme National Security Council previously stated that if Iran and Oman reach an agreement on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, that agreement will be handled separately from the issue of the strait's closure. As long as the U.S. does not change its behavior or accept Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen. The U.S. must end the war, release frozen Iranian funds, and bring an end to all conflicts across the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza. Additionally, other conditions communicated to Washington via intermediaries must also be met.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.
According to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool, in Polymarket's "2026 U.S. Midterm Election Congressional Control" prediction market, the probability of Democrats controlling both the Senate and the House is currently reported at 50%; the probability of Republicans controlling the Senate and Democrats controlling the House is reported at 38%; and the probability of Republicans controlling both chambers is reported at 12%.According to the settlement rules, this market will be settled based on which party—Democratic or Republican—controls the Senate and the House following the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. In principle, the party that wins a majority of seats in each chamber gains control. However, if no party wins a majority of seats, the party that holds half of the voting seats while also occupying the U.S. Vice Presidency will be deemed to control the Senate.The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will officially take place on November 3, 2026. Jesse Spiro, a Tether U.S. executive, previously stated that the 2026 U.S. midterm elections could reshape the congressional political landscape, thereby affecting the regulatory progress the crypto industry has achieved in Washington over the past two years.Join the PPP signal push community to stay ahead and seize the initiative.
The New York City Council has launched an investigation into the marketing practices of prediction market companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket to verify whether they are targeting young adults with misleading tactics.
According to The Block, the New York City Council has launched an investigation into four prediction market platforms—Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini Titan—alleging they employed "false, deceptive, or abusive" marketing tactics targeting young users. Among them, Polymarket was accused of paying social media creators to film videos placing fake bets on counterfeit websites, an incident first disclosed by The Wall Street Journal in June this year. Additionally, prediction market platforms face insider trading allegations; New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order in April prohibiting state government employees from using confidential government information to place bets on prediction markets.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket is undergoing an organizational upgrade in preparation for the upcoming fall trading peak, bringing in several new executives, restructuring its marketing system, and strengthening its compliance team in preparation for U.S. market expansion. Polymarket recently hired Travis VanderZanden, founder of shared e-scooter company Bird and former Uber and Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer, responsible for the company's growth strategy and marketing system development. VanderZanden stated that the prediction market is at a critical stage of rapid development, and the company needs to further improve its management team to support long-term growth.This adjustment comes as Polymarket faces regulatory scrutiny. Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had launched an investigation into its business model, related to the platform's marketing activities and promotional partnership policies. Sources say Polymarket has restructured its marketing department, updated rules for promotional partners, and provided relevant training to employees, while also hiring consulting firm AlixPartners to oversee whether content published by partners complies with the new standards.Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to strengthen its compliance and risk management capabilities for its U.S. operations. The company's U.S. trading platform has added several new executives in regulatory and risk roles, including former Robinhood executive Megan McGrath as Chief Compliance Officer for the U.S. platform, former Coinbase executive Natalie Oblazny overseeing U.S. regulatory affairs, former FBI and Coinbase employee Shana Bautista as Head of Global Investigations and Intelligence, and former Nasdaq executive Paul Jordan as Chief Risk Officer for the U.S. platform.Polymarket's U.S. trading platform went live in May this year and operates independently from its international business. With the NFL new season kicking off in September and the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, the market expects a new wave of growth in prediction market trading activity.Previously, Polymarket had already become one of the representative platforms in the prediction market space and continues to seek expanded fundraising. According to reports, the company is currently seeking a new funding round at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. As institutional investors and professional traders gradually enter the prediction market, Polymarket is attempting to transform from a retail-facing, betting-style prediction platform into a more mature financial market infrastructure. (CNBC)
Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by December 31 stands at 21%, with related contract trading volume exceeding $5.5 million as of August 9. Galaxy Research had previously lowered its expectation for the bill's passage in 2026 from 50% to 30%. On August 8, the U.S. Senate filed a motion to invoke cloture on the motion to advance the bill, but no full chamber vote was held. Senators will return on September 14, and per procedural rules, the first cloture vote is scheduled for September 15. The CLARITY Act aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. Senate negotiations still involve three unresolved issues: ethics enforcement, illicit financial activity provisions, and stablecoin yield. The bill will need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
Odaily News As prediction markets gradually expand into the realms of politics and government decision-making, insider trading risks are becoming a regulatory focus. U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has stated that it has identified multiple suspected cases of insider trading and has submitted the relevant leads to federal regulators.Kalshi spokesperson Laura Frank stated that the company prohibits market manipulation and insider trading and has established a trading surveillance system similar to those used in securities markets. Earlier this year, Kalshi's monitoring system flagged suspicious trading activity by former Congressman George Santos in markets related to the U.S. President's State of the Union address. The company subsequently submitted its investigative findings to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Additionally, federal agencies are investigating whether former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez used advance knowledge of Trump's speech content to trade on Kalshi-related markets.Meanwhile, the Trump family is accelerating its push into the prediction market space. Trump Media & Technology Group is developing a prediction market platform called TruthPredict, which will allow users to trade prediction contracts tied to major events. The company is also launching Truth API, providing Wall Street with high-speed data access to Truth Social content.Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of the former president, currently serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, while his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, has invested in rival Polymarket and joined its advisory board. This means the Trump family is simultaneously linked to the two leading prediction market platforms, while Trump Media Group is also building its own prediction market business.Although there is currently no public evidence showing that Donald Trump Jr. or the Trump family has traded using inside government information, the potential conflicts of interest arising from the intertwining of presidential public information, market trading, and family business interests are drawing growing external scrutiny.As of now, Donald Trump Jr.'s team and Trump Media & Technology Group have not immediately responded to requests for comment. (Fortune)
Odaily News: Polymarket will replace single-price snapshots with time-weighted average prices in short-term cryptocurrency markets for settling related contracts. This follows research and trader complaints indicating widespread manipulation in its settlement process. A study on 5-minute Bitcoin contracts found that some large Binance trades occurred in the final seconds before settlement and appeared to drive price movements; within potentially manipulated settlement windows, the majority of losses were borne by retail traders. The new system will use Chainlink Data Streams and short-duration TWAP windows. This mechanism is similar to the safeguards used by competing platform Kalshi, which relies on regulated price indices and moving averages to increase the difficulty and cost of short-term price distortion.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan posted that if the Clarity Act fails to pass this week, the ideal scenario is for Polymarket odds to drop significantly to the teens to eliminate market uncertainty. He pointed out that the market may experience brief volatility at that time, but it will create conditions for an autumn market rebound.
Odaily News: Nine U.S. Democratic senators have sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig, urging a ban on event contracts related to wildfires, arguing that such contracts could encourage arson, insider trading, and pose risks to public safety. In the letter, the senators noted that Polymarket has accepted over $1.2 million in bets related to the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires in California. They also pointed out that some new platforms allow users to wager on wildfires, with such markets enabling speculation on destructive events. The senators stated that the CFTC should rein in such betting before the start of next year's wildfire season and establish safeguards in both U.S. and offshore markets. Recent disputes over prediction market regulation have persisted, with related cases in Minnesota, Kentucky, and Michigan raising questions about federal and state regulatory authority.
According to Cryptopolitan, the U.S. Senate is scheduled to enter recess on August 7, leaving an extremely limited window for the CLARITY Act to pass before then. If voting is not completed this week, the next feasible window will be delayed until September, and if missed again, it could be postponed until after the midterm elections, meaning enactment may not occur until 2027. The main disagreement over the bill currently lies in the Democrats' insistence on adding crypto ethics clauses for senior government officials, but the consolidated draft has not yet incorporated relevant provisions. During the regulatory vacuum, large institutions such as Coinbase and Circle are better equipped to adapt to the uncertain environment due to their capital strength—ARK Invest increased its holdings in both companies this week, and Circle was approved for a federal national trust bank charter in July—while small and medium-sized crypto enterprises and DeFi projects continue to face pressure. In terms of the market, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing within 2026 has dropped to 23%, a significant decline from Galaxy Research's prediction of 67%–75% in mid-May.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
据美国威斯康星州东区联邦地区法院 7月 28 日裁决，法院驳回了 CFTC 要求禁止威斯康星州对 Kalshi、Coinbase、Robinhood、Polymarket及 Crypto.com 等平台的体育相关事件合约执法的初步禁令申请。法院认为，CFTC 未能证明其主张——即《商品交易法》（CEA）对"掉期"的定义涵盖体育事件合约——具有胜诉可能性，且赌博监管属于州传统警察权范畴，联邦法律并未明确表示意图取代州法。此外，法院同时驳回了 Kalshi、Crypto.com 衍生品北美公司（CDNA）的介入申请及美国博彩协会（AGA）的被告介入申请。目前，CFTC 与威斯康星州的实质性诉讼仍将继续推进。
: Prediction market platform Polymarket has announced the establishment of the Polymarket Institute, dedicated to funding independent academic research on how prediction markets can replace traditional polling and forecasting models in large-scale scenarios. The institute is fully funded by Polymarket and operates internally within the company. Its Executive Director is Polymarket's Head of Data, Kai Brusch, and its Scientific Director is Brian Jabarian, Assistant Professor of Economics and Technology at Carnegie Mellon University. Research directions include information aggregation, risk management, and intersections with AI, policy, and crypto markets.
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
According to CoinDesk, U.S. District Court Judge for the District of Minnesota Katherine Menendez ruled on July 28 local time that the Minnesota state law criminalizing the operation of prediction markets likely violates the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and granted a preliminary injunction to Kalshi, Polymarket, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to suspend the enforcement of the state law. The judge held that prediction market contracts structurally fall under 'swap' products within the CFTC's regulatory scope, federal law takes precedence over state law, and the three plaintiffs are 'likely to prevail in the formal trial'. Additionally, the judge noted that failing to suspend the enforcement of the law would cause 'irreparable harm' to Kalshi and Polymarket. The preliminary injunction will remain in effect until the final judgment of the case is issued.
U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez for the District of Minnesota ruled on Monday that a recently enacted Minnesota state law banning prediction markets may conflict with the Commodity Exchange Act. She granted a preliminary injunction in favor of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC had sued the state of Minnesota earlier this year after the state passed a law classifying the operation of prediction markets within the state as a criminal offense. The three parties argued that prediction market contracts are structured as "swaps" and that the state law infringes upon the CFTC's regulatory authority over such products. In her ruling, Judge Menendez stated that the parties are likely to succeed on the merits of their claim that the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts the state law.