News linked to both this project and an event.
sports merchandise and betting platform Fanatics will acquire a federally regulated exchange and clearing house from BGC to launch and settle its own prediction market operations. Fanatics and BGC also plan to develop new market data products that combine prediction market activity with traditional financial market data. This deal enables Fanatics to enter the prediction market space, competing directly with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
the long-awaited digital asset regulatory bill, the CLARITY Act, has hit a snag in its advancement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate is not expected to pass the bill before the August recess.The CLARITY Act aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, promoting the integration of blockchain and crypto assets into the mainstream financial system. Previously, the bill had undergone multiple rounds of negotiations between the crypto industry and opposing forces, such as the banking sector, and was once considered close to passage.However, recent controversy surrounding conflicts of interest related to President Donald Trump and his family's involvement in crypto projects has emerged as a new obstacle. Democrats are demanding the inclusion of ethical clauses in the bill that would restrict government officials from profiting from crypto transactions, a stance Republicans have previously opposed. Prediction market data indicates that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has significantly declined. Polymarket data shows that as of Friday, the probability stood at approximately 37%, well below the over 80% level seen earlier this spring.Crypto policy organizations and industry insiders believe the current delay is largely influenced by the political dynamics of the U.S. midterm elections. Ron Hammond, Head of Policy and Advocacy at Wintermute, stated that the votes to support the bill may still exist, but "election politics are louder." He suggested that a window for advancing the bill could still emerge after the November elections.Analysts point out that if Congress needs to prioritize major issues such as government funding and national defense before the end of its current term, the CLARITY Act could be further marginalized. As the U.S. political landscape may shift following the midterm elections, the outlook for crypto regulatory legislation remains highly uncertain. (Fortune)
OdailyOdailyOdaily News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same election. The Commission also noted that knowingly voting without being eligible could constitute a Class I felony. The Commission unanimously approved a legal memorandum regarding prediction markets during a meeting on July 9, and issued a statewide notice on Tuesday. The restrictions apply only to the corresponding election and do not automatically affect a trader's voting eligibility in other unrelated elections. Benjamin Freeman, Head of Election Business at Kalshi, stated that the guidance is "clearly unconstitutional and unlawful," adding that the company has hundreds of thousands of users in Wisconsin alone. Robert DeNault, Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel at Kalshi, said that election markets certified by the CFTC and offered on federally regulated exchanges are legal. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated that the company would respond to the Commission's claims through appropriate legal proceedings. Both companies argue that their products are tradable financial contracts, not gambling.
Polymarket has announced it will challenge France’s full-site blockade against it, stating that the platform has disabled trading functions in France since November 2024. French regulators claim the platform continues to promote illegal gambling, citing risks such as financial losses, identity verification issues, and market manipulation. France is the latest country to require internet service providers to block the platform, following similar measures taken by Ukraine, Argentina, and Spain.
Kalshi and Polymarket processed a combined trading volume of over $44 billion in 2025. As of April 2026, the monthly trading volume on the two platforms has risen to $24 billion, surpassing the average monthly betting volume of legal sports platforms in the United States. Kalshi reported $263.5 million in fee revenue last year, with its annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion since then. Prediction markets operate on a binary contract exchange model, where the platform matches buyers and sellers without placing bets, holding positions, or bearing the risk of event outcomes. Its primary revenue comes from transaction fees, with additional revenue sources including data licensing, API access for institutional traders, and, in some cases, market creation fees on the platform. In the U.S. market, Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market (DCM) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket re-entered the U.S. market at the end of 2025 by acquiring the CFTC-regulated QCEX for $112 million. Some states still classify prediction market contracts as gambling, and related federal and state-level lawsuits remain ongoing. The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) does not directly define the attributes of prediction market contracts, and classification varies among member states. If a platform uses crypto settlement and provides custody or transfer services to EU users, it must also obtain a license as a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP).
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability of the "CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026" on Polymarket is temporarily reported at 38%, down 9% in 24 hours.Although the latest text of the CLARITY Act has been released and is scheduled to be submitted for a full Senate vote as early as next week, several Democratic senators believe that the ethical provisions regarding Trump's crypto asset conflicts of interest in the new version are too weak. Meanwhile, the market also remains cautious about whether the bill can complete coordination between the two chambers and finalize the legislative process before the August congressional recess.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
According to Reuters, prediction market platform Polymarket announced it will launch a legal challenge against the decision by the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) to block its website. ANJ unilaterally blocked access to Polymarket in France last week, citing "potential for significant gambling losses for users" and "risk of manipulation of platform bets." Polymarket expressed disappointment over this and stated it would seek relief through French legal procedures. Previously, the Spanish government temporarily banned Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi in May this year, and US derivatives regulators also released a new regulatory draft targeting the prediction market industry in June, indicating a clear trend of tightening global regulation.
: The Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development, under the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture, held a hearing on how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should regulate prediction markets. Carl Kennedy, a partner at Katten Muchin Rosenman, stated that the CFTC may lack sufficient staffing to adequately handle regulation and enforcement for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Kennedy believes that the CLARITY Act, currently under consideration in the Senate, could grant the CFTC greater authority, both for digital assets and for addressing the growth of prediction markets. He stated that if the CFTC is to handle new asset classes such as cash markets and crypto assets, it will require more resources. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, since being confirmed by the Senate in December, has argued that the agency has exclusive jurisdiction over related companies and believes that event contracts on these platforms fall under the CFTC's jurisdiction as swaps. Several U.S. states have sued Kalshi and Polymarket over sports betting-related disputes, and these cases could ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "CLARITY Bill Signed into Law in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 42%, up 5% in 24 hours and 10% in a week.The market rules are as follows: If the "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act of 2025" (HR3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "YES"; otherwise, it will resolve to "NO". The primary sources of information are official announcements from the U.S. Congress website and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.White House Crypto Advisor Patrick Witt has officially stated today that he will remain in Washington to push for the passage of the CLARITY Act. Previously, there were reports that he would leave before the Senate vote, but that news has now been overturned.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that on Polymarket, for the event "Will the US government ban open-source AI models in 2026?", the "Yes" probability is currently at 16%.According to the resolution rules, if the US federal government, before December 31, 2026, through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal policy actions, restricts the US public's access or use of a specific open-source AI model, the market outcome will be resolved as "Yes." Otherwise, the market outcome will be resolved as "No." Eligible open-source AI models refer to general-purpose large language models or multimodal foundation models whose model weights and source code are publicly downloadable and can be run on hardware under user control, such as Meta Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen, etc.Recently, the open-source Kimi K3 model launched by Moonshot AI has drawn market attention to whether it will impact closed-source AI. OpenAI's Director of Strategy, Dean W. Ball, stated on X platform that the US government might adopt soft legal measures to prevent open-source models from entering the US. David Sacks, Chairman of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, believes that using regulatory uncertainty to suppress open-source competition is "unacceptable."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) announced on July 17 that it will block access for users within France to the prediction market platform Polymarket, following a prior ban on accepting financial transactions from French accounts on the platform.The ANJ stated that although France had already restricted financial transactions linked to Polymarket since November 2024, the platform's website remained accessible to French users, with user traffic continuously growing. Therefore, it decided to implement further web-blocking measures.Data shows that Polymarket allows users to engage in predictive trading on the outcomes of future events, including politics, economics, and sports. Since the platform displays betting odds for different events in real-time, French regulators believe this constitutes promotion of unauthorized gambling websites.The ANJ noted: "Promoting unauthorized betting or gambling websites in any manner is a criminal offense." The relevant violations could result in a maximum fine of 100,000 euros (approximately 147,000 Singapore dollars).Regulators indicated that although French accounts are no longer able to conduct related transactions, access from French IP addresses has continued to rise, reaching 578,751 visits in June.This blockade further highlights the attention European regulators are paying to prediction market platforms. As decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket grow rapidly worldwide, how to define them—whether as financial innovation, information markets, or gambling businesses—is becoming a focal point of regulatory discussions across nations. (Straitstimes)
Odaily Odaily News Polymarket traders pushed the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year to 35% on July 17, recovering from a low of 24% on July 13. The contract had approached 74% in May, before falling to 48% in June as negotiations dragged on. Senate Republicans plan to release the final text of the CLARITY Act after meeting with US President Donald Trump. Senator Bernie Moreno said the updated text will be released after the meeting, with the target for Senate floor consideration set for the week of July 20. The bill needs 60 votes in the Senate to pass. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, requiring at least 7 Democratic votes in support. Democratic negotiators say the draft to be submitted to the chamber is not the version they agreed to. The dispute centers on ethics clauses involving Trump's business interests in the crypto industry.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a potential insider trading incident involving the prediction market platform Kalshi. A staff member allegedly responsible for operating President Trump's teleprompter is accused of placing bets on related prediction event contracts.According to reports, this individual may have used early access to information about Trump's public remarks to wager on the Kalshi platform regarding whether Trump's related statements would be released or contain specific phrasing. Currently, the CFTC is investigating whether the relevant trades involved the use of non-public information and whether they violated prediction market trading rules.This investigation has once again raised market concerns about the risk of insider trading in prediction markets. As trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow rapidly, prediction contracts involving political, economic, and public events are increasingly coming under regulatory scrutiny. (CNBC)
on July 13, the Czech Ministry of Finance added Polymarket to its list of unauthorized internet gaming platforms, identifying it as an unlicensed gambling platform. Internet service providers are required to block access to the platform within 15 days. The Czech Institute for Gambling Regulation stated that Polymarket settles payments using the USDC stablecoin and operates as a decentralized exchange, without providing services through licensed local operators. The institute noted that several EU countries have recently restricted or blocked Polymarket; Italy has reinstated it on the blocklist, while the Netherlands has dismissed the platform's appeal. Separately, this month, the EU market regulator ESMA warned that event contracts meeting the definition of financial instruments are already prohibited from being sold to retail investors under existing binary options rules. Gibraltar has introduced a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets this week, while Malta has indicated it is exploring a similar regime. (Bitcoin.com News).
According to Bloomberg, prediction market platform Polymarket is seeking U.S. regulatory approval and plans to conduct margin trading operations in compliance. The company submitted an application to operate as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) to the National Futures Association (NFA) on July 3 through its subsidiary Coming Home GBA LLC. This move will allow users to participate in event betting with less capital and is expected to attract more professional traders to enter the market.
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)
Polymarket traders estimate a 23% probability that the U.S. government, through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal actions taken before December 31, 2026, will prevent the American public from accessing major Chinese AI models. Multiple departments within the U.S. Department of Commerce have already banned employees from using Deepseek on work devices due to data security concerns, and Virginia, Texas, and New York have also imposed Deepseek device bans on state employees. (Bitcoin.com News).
South Korea's media regulatory body will give Polymarket a chance to respond before deciding whether to take corrective action against its prediction market platform. The regulator is reviewing whether Polymarket's services constitute illegal gambling, which is prohibited under South Korean law. (The Block)
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
: Music streaming platform Spotify has deleted over 500,000 fake streams for the song "Earrings" by musician Malcolm Todd. The song had been pushed to the top of the charts. Spotify's investigation found that the stream manipulation was linked to prediction market betting activities, where traders on the Kalshi platform placed bets on which song would become the most-streamed track on Spotify in the US in June. The market had a trading volume of $3 million. Before Spotify completed its investigation, Kalshi declared Todd the winner and settled the market based on the manipulated data. After discovering the issue, Spotify requested that Kalshi and Polymarket remove their branding and clarify that there is no partnership between them. Kalshi stated it is cooperating with the investigation, while Polymarket has not responded.