News linked to both this project and an event.
investigative journalist Whitney Webb has published a series of articles on the origins and ambitions of Polymarket, questioning its official founding narrative.Whitney Webb stated that Polymarket's official claim that "Shayne Coplan founded the company alone in 2020, starting it in a bathroom" is not true. She believes that Polymarket's origins can be traced back to an earlier company, TokenBnk, and that it is linked to a crypto company founded by the nephew and niece of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Webb also stated that Polymarket is essentially a product of Peter Thiel and his team's attempt to revive the Pentagon's early controversial project, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM). This project was previously cancelled due to controversy, and Polymarket can be seen as its "privatized rebirth."
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "Tesla will officially launch a Robotaxi service in California before December 31, 2026."If Tesla officially offers an autonomous taxi service to the public in California before the end of 2026 that does not require continuous human driver intervention, it will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No."Tesla continues to advance its autonomous driving and Robotaxi布局, but regional progress shows clear divergence. Currently, in parts of the U.S. (such as Texas), it has already conducted more aggressive unmanned mobility tests and planning, while in the California market, it remains primarily constrained by a stricter regulatory framework. The California DMV and CPUC have established a multi-stage approval process for commercial autonomous driving operations, involving multiple hurdles such as road test data, remote safety operator requirements, and commercial passenger permits.At present, Tesla's operations in California are mainly limited to supervised autonomous driving features (FSD Supervised) and have not obtained a commercial Robotaxi license for fully unmanned operations. In contrast, its "Cybercab" and Robotaxi commercialization path is widely considered by the market to be prioritized for deployment in regions with more lenient regulations, leaving California's progress with high uncertainty.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing takes place.
According to CoinDesk, investment bank Jefferies warned that as the path for the passage of the CLARITY Act in the Senate becomes increasingly narrow, the cryptocurrency market may face volatility risks. Data from prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the probability of the bill being approved before the end of the year has dropped significantly from 70% to 48%. The CLARITY Act is an important bill in the legislative process of the current U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework, and the uncertainty of its prospects is seen by the market as a potential bearish signal.
According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, the U.S. "Clarity Act," although having passed a bipartisan 15:9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee, still faces significant hurdles in the subsequent legislative process. Political uncertainty may exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is considered a core legislative framework for the U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies pointed out that passage would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, primarily due to disputes over ethical clauses, anti-money-laundering reviews, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts note that with approximately only 20 legislative days remaining before Congress adjourns in August, it must complete the reconciliation of House and Senate versions, procedural votes, and submission to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it may be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if delayed, it could suppress institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue affecting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulations gradually clarify, intensified competition in the stablecoin space could become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the "Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting" has dropped to 18.1%, while the probability of "maintaining the current interest rate" has risen to 81%. The total trading volume for this event has reached $21.74 million.The market currently widely expects the Fed to remain on hold at the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29. Although the US CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, and energy prices have surged due to tensions in the Middle East, keeping inflationary pressures alive, after the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at the June meeting, the market is leaning towards waiting for more economic data before deciding on the subsequent policy path. Key economic indicators to be released on July 14, including the US June CPI data, as well as employment and wage figures, will be important variables influencing the outcome of the July meeting.The Odaily Seer Prophets Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
U.S. Republican Senator John Curtis and Democratic Senator Adam Schiff sent a letter on Thursday to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig, urging the agency to investigate prediction market platform Polymarket. The letter stated that Polymarket is suspected of paying social media influencers to film fake betting videos, using fraudulent marketing tactics to promote gambling-related products to U.S. audiences.Earlier reports indicated that Polymarket paid influencers to record fake trades on websites similar to its platform, and many creators did not disclose the fact that they were paid. A review found that 70% of over 1,100 videos contained fake bets, totaling nearly $2 million. Additionally, according to sources familiar with the matter, the CFTC is conducting an ongoing and extensive investigation into Polymarket. The senators have requested that the CFTC Chairman provide a written response on related issues by July 10. (cointelegraph)
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recently launched an investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket, and the investigation is still ongoing.Previously, including a lawsuit filed by a consumer protection organization accepted by the Washington High Court, Polymarket has faced multiple allegations of using paid endorsements on social media for misleading promotion, specifically targeting college students. A Polymarket spokesperson responded that the company is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets and is currently conducting a comprehensive audit of active promotional content to ensure compliance with standards and regulatory disclosure requirements. Additionally, over a dozen U.S. states have taken legal action against Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of operating illegal sports betting, while the CFTC has countersued some states, asserting exclusive jurisdiction. (FT)
several U.S. lawmakers are calling for an investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket, citing concerns that its advertising may contain misleading content. According to reports, the lawmakers believe that Polymarket's marketing efforts may not have clearly disclosed the nature of its products and associated risks, potentially misleading users. Some legislators have requested regulatory bodies to assess the platform's advertising compliance and information disclosure standards. (WSJ)
According to market sources: Prediction market platform Polymarket’s annualized revenue has surpassed $1 billion, with daily trading volume soaring from $50 million to $200 million. (Sina Finance)
prediction market platform Kalshi is in talks to raise a new round of funding at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, with a potential deal closing as early as the third quarter. Last month, Kalshi completed a $1 billion funding round from investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, and Morgan Stanley, at a valuation of $22 billion.Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the company is considering an IPO, but it will not go public in 2026, with a potential listing likely no earlier than late 2027 or 2028. Kalshi reported that as of April 2026, its annualized trading volume reached $178 billion, a 32-fold increase year-over-year.Kalshi is currently embroiled in a legal dispute between U.S. state and federal regulators over the oversight of prediction markets. The controversy includes whether sports event contracts constitute derivatives regulated by the CFTC or illegal gambling. CME has sued the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's "perpetual" futures, Kentucky sued Kalshi and Polymarket this month, and the CFTC subsequently sued Kentucky to block its enforcement action. (Decrypt)
According to Odaily, within the ten days leading up to the World Cup, Polymarket's soccer category trading volume exceeded $2 billion, a 300% increase compared to the previous ten days. The average daily trading volume rose from $53 million before the tournament to approximately $220 million. Meanwhile, last Thursday, Kalshi's open interest reached a record $1.16 billion, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time and growing 350% since the beginning of the year.Although Polymarket's open interest levels remained relatively stable during the World Cup, the open interest on Polymarket's U.S. branch only saw moderate growth, failing to reach the highs from April 2026. Kalshi's open interest has grown faster than its trading volume, indicating that its user base holds positions for longer periods and has established larger directional positions. Its CFTC-regulated channel and direct USD deposit gateway have attracted U.S. institutions and high-net-worth dollar investors. (The Block)
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event for the “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026.”From the perspective of the interest rate path, the market is currently pricing in two distinctly different macro narratives. One view holds that the U.S. economy will enter a growth slowdown cycle in 2026, with the Fed maintaining a wait-and-see stance or even resuming rate cuts. The other view argues that if inflation reemerges or long-term inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed could be forced to restart its rate hiking cycle. Therefore, the high probability attached to “3 to 4 rate hikes” essentially reflects the market’s reassessment of inflation stickiness and economic resilience over the next year, rather than a consensus on a single path.Bank of America has already shifted to a more hawkish interest rate path forecast. BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2026, totaling 75 basis points for the year, pushing the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This represents a significant upward revision from its previous outlook of “rates unchanged for the year,” primarily based on the still-resilient U.S. labor market, the bumpy progress of disinflation, and the possibility that the Fed’s policy reaction function under new Chair Kevin Warsh could be more hawkish. In comparison, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to start hiking in September, but with a cumulative annual increase of 50 basis points, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are reassessing the upside risks to U.S. interest rates in 2026.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
the U.S. CFTC on Tuesday sued Kentucky, attempting to prevent the state from regulating prediction market platforms as illegal sports betting and gambling operations, further establishing federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.Previously, Kentucky had last week sued platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed illegal sports betting and gambling businesses within the state.In its complaint filed with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, the CFTC stated that Kentucky’s attempt to shut down federally regulated designated contract markets interferes with the federal regulatory system established by Congress for the national swaps market. The agency claims "exclusive jurisdiction" over event contracts and prediction market products.Kentucky has become the ninth state that the CFTC has sued in the prediction market regulatory dispute, indicating that the conflict between federal derivatives regulation and state-level gambling oversight continues to escalate.
Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has been accused of paying dozens of creators, mostly of college age, to film betting videos on pages closely resembling its website, with some videos also showing fabricated profits. A review of 1,105 videos posted by 10 creators since December found that approximately 70% contained betting content, and the roughly $1.9 million in wagers displayed were not real transactions. One video released in January showed college student George Makihara celebrating a $100,000 win from betting that Donald Trump would say "McDonald’s" that month. However, the footage was reportedly filmed two months early; Trump did not publicly utter the word in January of that year, and over 50 real accounts betting on the same event on Polymarket all incurred losses. Some creators entered trades on test pages, including the misspelled domain "poiymarket.com," which were allegedly built by Polymarket or used for engineering test environments. In 118 videos, creators displayed nearly $900,000 in fictitious gains, while these bets would have resulted in losses of over $166,000 based on actual outcomes. Creators received approximately $2,000 to $3,000 per month and were instructed not to disclose the collaboration arrangement. Polymarket stated it is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets and plans to conduct a comprehensive audit of promotional content. (Decrypt)
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Claude Fable 5 will be restored for US customers by June 26" has dropped to 41%, down 16% in 24 hours.Due to US government export controls imposed on national security grounds, Anthropic suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9.Latest reports indicate that Anthropic executives have submitted a proposal to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, pledging closer collaboration with the White House and working to address the security concerns that led to restrictions on its powerful "Mythos" and "Fable" models.Sources familiar with the matter say that during ongoing remediation negotiations, Anthropic has committed to resolving any security issues more quickly in the future, though there is currently no exact timeline for a complete resolution. Another insider stated that Anthropic co-founder and Chief Computing Officer Tom Brown, along with Head of Public Policy Sarah Heck, are leading negotiations with Trump administration officials. Representatives from both Anthropic and the Department of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platform Polymarket is accused of hiring paid content creators to post a large number of deceptive “profit showcase” videos on social media—where all claimed earnings are fabricated. An investigation revealed that in one video, a college student claimed to have won $100,000 on Polymarket by betting on “Trump publicly mentioning McDonald’s,” but the reported profit was not real.
sources say prediction market platform Kalshi has disclosed it is engaging in early, informal discussions with investment banks regarding a potential IPO. A Kalshi spokesperson declined to comment.Previously, the state of Kentucky filed a lawsuit against five prediction market operators, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of running unlicensed illegal sports betting and gambling platforms. At least 17 other states have also taken prediction market operators to court. The related disputes involve the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over event contracts. (Cointelegraph)
Monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 73%, up 33% in 24H.If Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos, or a version confirmed to be the same model) to the US public before the specified date, this event will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". Qualifying methods of restoration include public beta or public waitlist; closed testing and private access do not count. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are not included by default unless they are confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. Settlement will primarily be based on official announcements from Anthropic, supplemented by consensus reports from mainstream media.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. Although the restrictions were primarily aimed at foreign users, due to the difficulty of real-time user identity screening, Anthropic ultimately closed access for all users, including those in the US, and switched requests to less capable models such as Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently engaged in high-level discussions with the White House on issues including model capabilities and potential jailbreak risks. The company has publicly stated that the ban may have stemmed from a misunderstanding and is actively pushing to restore access.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event for "SpaceX Starship First Launch Date from Florida."To date, all integrated test flights of Starship have been conducted at Starbase in Texas. SpaceX is currently building Starship launch and manufacturing facilities in Florida, including a Starship launch tower at Kennedy Space Center's LC-39A, and renovation work at Cape Canaveral's SLC-37. Relevant projects still require regulatory approval, environmental assessments, and infrastructure construction.SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell stated in a CNBC interview in June 2026 that the company expects Starship Flight 13 to launch in about a month and plans to gradually achieve a monthly Starship launch cadence. She also mentioned that future missions could include Starship's first-ever launch from Florida.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to follow the prediction market—seeing changes before pricing.
According to CoinDesk, the Kentucky Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of offering illegal sports betting services without proper licensing in the state. The complaint also alleges that the relevant platforms and their partners failed to provide gambling addiction support resources as required by state law.