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Project Overview
Polymarket is a decentralized information markets platform that lets users trade on the world's most highly-debated topics (e.g. coronavirus, politics, current events, etc). On Polymarket, users can build a portfolio based on their forecasts and earn a return if they are correct. When users buy shares in a market, they are expressing their own knowledge, research, and view of the future. Market prices reflect what traders think are the odds of future events, turning trading activity into actionable insights to help people make better decisions. Thus, Polymarket is a leading source of unbiased and real-time data about future events.
NYSE Parent Intercontinental Exchange Weighs Participation in Polymarket's New Funding Round
According to Bloomberg, Jeff Sprecher, CEO of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, stated that the company will monitor the new funding round for prediction market platform Polymarket and consider participating if it helps facilitate the round. Previously, ICE had invested over $1.6 billion in Polymarket.
MSX Pre-IPO Phase 2 Redemption Now Open, Polymarket Subscription Yield Reaches 33.3%.
Odaily News: According to the official announcement from MSX, the platform has officially opened redemption applications for Phase 2 Pre-IPO projects, Anthropic and Polymarket.Official data shows that as of the latest valuation, the Polymarket subscription price has risen from $152/share to $202.67/share, representing an unrealized gain of 33.3%. Anthropic's latest valuation also exceeds its subscription price.With this redemption window now open, users can choose based on their own needs to either apply for redemption at the latest market price and settle in USDT, or continue holding until the underlying projects complete their IPOs.Previously, MSX had already completed the full trading cycle for Phase 1 Pre-IPO projects, $CBRS.M and $SPCX.M, from subscription to listing. Users can log in to the MSX platform to view specific redemption rules and asset status.
Polymarket odds of "Anthropic becoming largest IPO of 2026" rise to 45%, up 37% in a week
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that Polymarket odds of "Anthropic becoming the largest IPO of 2026" stand at 45%, up 37% over the week, just slightly below SpaceX's 55%.As recently as last week, SpaceX held a commanding lead in the "largest IPO of 2026" race. But this week, Anthropic has rapidly narrowed the gap. According to market reports, Anthropic is actively advancing its listing plans, with an IPO potentially coming as early as October. Some Anthropic investors expect the company to go public at a valuation of $2 trillion or higher — a staggering figure that would surpass SpaceX.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket odds of Anthropic hitting $1.5 trillion valuation this year rise to 76%, up 13% in 24 hours
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in the Polymarket prediction event "Anthropic valuation hits target this year," the probability of reaching $1.5 trillion this year has risen to 76%, up 13% in 24 hours. The probability of reaching $1.25 trillion has risen to 92%, up 8% in 24 hours.According to the settlement rules, this market primarily relies on the private market valuation of Anthropic as published by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM). If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing during this period, the valuation corresponding to the official offering price and the public market capitalization after listing will also be included in the settlement basis. Currently, NPM data cited on the Polymarket page shows a valuation of approximately $1.13 trillion.Previously, according to The Wall Street Journal, Anthropic plans to go public in September or early October, though the specific offering price and timeline have not yet been announced. If successfully listed, it could become one of the largest IPOs in history.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead of the curve and seize opportunities first.
Polymarket restructures team and brings in multiple executives, accelerating compliance and U.S. expansion ahead of the fall prediction market surge
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket is undergoing an organizational upgrade in preparation for the upcoming fall trading peak, bringing in several new executives, restructuring its marketing system, and strengthening its compliance team in preparation for U.S. market expansion. Polymarket recently hired Travis VanderZanden, founder of shared e-scooter company Bird and former Uber and Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer, responsible for the company's growth strategy and marketing system development. VanderZanden stated that the prediction market is at a critical stage of rapid development, and the company needs to further improve its management team to support long-term growth.This adjustment comes as Polymarket faces regulatory scrutiny. Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had launched an investigation into its business model, related to the platform's marketing activities and promotional partnership policies. Sources say Polymarket has restructured its marketing department, updated rules for promotional partners, and provided relevant training to employees, while also hiring consulting firm AlixPartners to oversee whether content published by partners complies with the new standards.Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to strengthen its compliance and risk management capabilities for its U.S. operations. The company's U.S. trading platform has added several new executives in regulatory and risk roles, including former Robinhood executive Megan McGrath as Chief Compliance Officer for the U.S. platform, former Coinbase executive Natalie Oblazny overseeing U.S. regulatory affairs, former FBI and Coinbase employee Shana Bautista as Head of Global Investigations and Intelligence, and former Nasdaq executive Paul Jordan as Chief Risk Officer for the U.S. platform.Polymarket's U.S. trading platform went live in May this year and operates independently from its international business. With the NFL new season kicking off in September and the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, the market expects a new wave of growth in prediction market trading activity.Previously, Polymarket had already become one of the representative platforms in the prediction market space and continues to seek expanded fundraising. According to reports, the company is currently seeking a new funding round at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. As institutional investors and professional traders gradually enter the prediction market, Polymarket is attempting to transform from a retail-facing, betting-style prediction platform into a more mature financial market infrastructure. (CNBC)
Polymarket probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" drops to 6%, down 25% in 24 hours
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" has dropped to 6%, down 25% in the past 24 hours.This event will be settled on day 1 after the GRVT governance token goes live, based on whether its fully diluted valuation (FDV) is higher than the specified value in the title.If the FDV on day 1 after the GRVT token listing is higher than the specified value, the event settles as "Yes"; otherwise, it settles as "No".For the token listing, it must meet the conditions of being publicly transferable and tradeable. FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price."Day 1 after listing" is defined as 16:00 (ET) on the next calendar day after the listing date. The settlement price will reference the most liquid price source.Previously reported, Binance Futures has listed the GRVTUSDT perpetual contract with up to 10x leverage.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Solana Policy Institute CEO: Clarity Act Stuck in "August Recess Purgatory," Only 10% Chance of Passage Before Midterms
Odaily News - Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine stated that the window for the Clarity Act to pass before the November midterm elections is closing rapidly. Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026, he estimated that the probability of the bill becoming law before the midterms is only about 10%.Whitehouse-Levine described the bill as currently being in "August recess purgatory." He noted that the Senate has been working on the legislation for over a year, but as time in the current Congress runs out, completing the legislative process is becoming increasingly difficult.He added that the procedural motion scheduled for September 15 is only the first step in a series of votes needed to move the bill forward, so he remains "hopeful, but realistic about the odds."This assessment is more pessimistic than that of prediction markets. Polymarket currently shows a 21% probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law by year-end, with trading volume exceeding $7 million on the relevant market; Kalshi puts the probability at 23%, down from 50% less than a month ago.
Prediction market companies not invited; White House to hold tech leaders event with Trump tomorrow
Odaily Odaily News: The White House plans to host a tech industry leaders event with Trump tomorrow, with multiple tech industry leaders expected to attend. According to White House sources, prediction market companies were not invited to this event and will not be present. Previously, sources familiar with the matter revealed that President Trump is expected to attend a crypto industry innovation meeting to be held at the White House next week, engaging in discussions with executives from multiple crypto companies as well as heads of prediction market and AI firms. Executives from companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Kalshi are expected to participate and serve as members of the newly established Innovation Advisory Committee under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The meeting is expected to be held at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, discussing U.S. policies on innovation areas including fintech, crypto assets, prediction markets, and AI. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig and other government advisors are also expected to attend, and Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick may also be present.
韩国监管机构决定屏蔽 Polymarket 访问
韩国广播媒体通信审议委员会于 8月 18 日决定，对海外预测市场平台 Polymarket 采取接入屏蔽措施。该机构认为，Polymarket 提供涉及政治、支付、体育、选举、天气等事件结果的预测交易，具有“赢家通吃”式损益结构，可能助长投机心理，并构成面向韩国用户的非法赌博环境。
Prediction markets price roughly 74% probability the Fed holds rates steady in September
Odaily News According to reports, multiple prediction markets are converging on pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and nearly 1% probability of a rate cut. Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option. The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
JPMorgan terminated Polymarket banking services last year due to regulatory concerns, still seeking IPO underwriting opportunities
According to Reuters, people familiar with the matter said that JPMorgan Chase terminated banking services for prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns, asking it to seek another banking institution. Despite this, both parties still maintain business relations, and JPMorgan Chase is also interested in pursuing Polymarket's future IPO underwriting opportunities.
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting platforms
the city of Baltimore and Mayor Brendan Scott have filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing the two companies of violating local gambling laws and regulations on deceptive business practices. The Mayor's office stated on Thursday that the two companies operate "illegal, unlicensed sports betting platforms" and mislead users about the legality and regulatory status of their products. The city of Baltimore argues that Kalshi and Polymarket describe event contracts as trading, but the transactions in question are essentially illegal gambling prohibited under state law. The complaint against Kalshi also names Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase as partners on its prediction market platform, alleging that these companies promote sports contracts as products that can be legally purchased and traded in Maryland. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the companies involved maintain that prediction market event contracts fall under the category of "swaps" within their regulatory scope. Polymarket stated that prediction markets operated on CFTC-registered exchanges are governed by federal law and should not be subject to state and local regulations. (Cointelegraph)
DeGods Founder Frank Continues to Accumulate "Niu Lai" as Holdings Surpass $500,000
Odaily News: The meme coin "Niu Lai" was listed on Binance Alpha yesterday. After a brief pullback following the news-driven surge, it rebounded in the early hours of today, briefly surpassing a $40 million market cap and currently standing at $38.03 million. DeGods founder Frank has been steadily accumulating, with his current holdings exceeding $500,000 in "Niu Lai." He mentioned that the movie "Niu Lai" will soon be screened in the United States, which is actually a viewing party organized by Polymarket. Qwerty, the top address on the "Niu Lai" profit leaderboard, reduced some of its position yesterday afternoon and has not made any further moves to reduce or increase holdings since then.
xm39 trader liquidated positions just in time to avoid the crude oil plunge, but re-established 10 million in crude oil long positions after the "ceasefire" news
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the address associated with Polymarket trader "xm39" closed all remaining 82,700 long positions on crude oil (CL) on the evening of July 31, with a trading volume of approximately $6.904 million, at an average closing price of $83.52, realizing a profit of approximately $97,000. Afterwards, the address maintained a no-position stance on crude oil defensively for two days.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing This Year Drops to 37%, Some Provisions May Inhibit Institutional Participation
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing Within the Year Decreases, Potentially Undermining Crypto Market Prospects
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
Kalshi Settles $3.32 Million Spotify Prediction Market After Fraudulent Streaming Warning
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
Faraji Aide Cottrell Exposed for Taking $9 Million on Polymarket and Betting on Trump Election
According to Protos, George Cottrell, an aide to UK Reform Party leader Nigel Farage who was previously convicted of wire fraud, had his Polymarket account (username "GCottrell93") receive a total of $8.8 million in funds in October 2024—$7 million of which came from an OKX exchange wallet (in five transactions), and another $1.83 million from a ChangeNOW wallet. These funds were subsequently used to bet on Trump winning the US election, with approximately $13 million in winnings ultimately transferred to an OKX wallet and $282,000 to ChangeNOW.
Polymarket probability of "Next round of US-Iran peace talks before August 31" rises to 51%, up 17% in 24 hours
Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of "Next round of US-Iran peace talks before August 31" on Polymarket has risen to 51%, up 17% in 24 hours; the probability of talks occurring before August 15 has risen to 27%, up 13% in 24 hours.Trump posted on social media today stating that he received a request from Iran to delay the attack and agreed to cancel the strike on Iran in exchange for an agreement. He noted that the U.S. is prepared to confront Iran with a level of military deterrence, strength, and capability unseen since World War II, as a framework for an agreement has already been reached. This framework includes the immediate, complete, and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as ending Iran's nuclear threat. Based on this request, he agreed to cancel the attack for the future interests of the world and the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, provided that an agreement can be reached promptly.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the initiative.
Polymarket's "US-Iran ceasefire before July 24" probability drops to 36%, down 15% in 24 hours
The PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of a "ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 24" on Polymarket has dropped to 36%, down 15% in 24 hours.This event will settle as "Yes" if the US does not take any military actions that meet the defined criteria against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will settle as "No."Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Excluded actions include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyberattacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of relevant military actions, the event will await consensus from official information and credible media before being adjudicated. If disagreements persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time. The settlement basis includes official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, as well as reports from credible media outlets.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket probability of "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" rises to 59%, up 19% in a single day
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" on Polymarket has risen to 59%, up 19% in a single day.This event will settle as "Yes" if the US takes no qualifying military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will settle as "No."Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.Actions not counted include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyber attacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a military action, the event will await a consensus formed by official information and credible media before being adjudicated. If differences persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time.Settlement will be based on official information from the US and Iranian governments and military, as well as credible media reports.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket launches "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire"
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market for "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 stands at 5%; for July 24, it is 15%; for July 31, it is 23%; for August 14, it is 43%; and for August 31, it is 54%.The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US takes no military action against Iran between the market creation and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, this market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action that occurs. This period lasts until 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action during this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be considered "Yes."So-called "qualifying military actions" refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated by the US directly targeting Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial drones launched from the air. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.Qualifying military actions include: munitions that are destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery; howitzer, cannon, mortar, and rocket artillery (e.g., Multiple Launch Rocket Systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close-air support drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet been acted upon.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket: "WTI crude oil will rise to $80 by July 2026" probability reaches 47%, up 28% in 24 hours
According to PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring, the probability of "WTI crude oil rising to $80 by July 2026" on Polymarket has reached 47%, up 28% in 24 hours.Trump stated today that he may launch a large-scale attack on Iran. As the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran becomes precarious, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has "basically come to a standstill." Kpler senior oil analyst Navin Das stated that since the US and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement on June 17, the average daily number of tankers passing through has been approximately 32. This figure is nearly three times the average daily traffic between the outbreak of the conflict (February) and the signing of the agreement on June 17, though still far below pre-war levels.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket 遭攻击 300 万美元用户资金被盗
预测市场平台 Polymarket 因第三方供应商被黑，约 300 万美元用户资金被盗，平台称将全额退款。
Polymarket probability of OpenAI releasing Astra before September 15 drops to 42%, down 18% in 24 hours
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in the Polymarket "OpenAI Astra Release Date" prediction market, the probability of OpenAI releasing Astra before September 15 has dropped to 42%, down 18% in 24 hours; the probability of a release before August 31 is currently at 10%, down 8% in 24 hours.If OpenAI officially releases Astra before the specified date in the title (Eastern Time), or releases a product confirmed to be the same model as the previously disclosed Astra and makes it available to the public, the market will settle as Yes; otherwise, it will settle as No.The model can be named Astra, Astra 1, GPT-6 Astra, or any other name, but it must be confirmed by OpenAI's official channels or credible media that it is indeed Astra. Models such as GPT-5.7 and GPT-6 will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model as Astra.A public beta or opening a waitlist counts as an official release; closed beta or private access does not. Settlement will primarily rely on official information from OpenAI, with consistent reports from credible media also considered.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead of the curve and seize the initiative.
An account purchased $278,000 in a position betting that the Fed will hold rates steady in September
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket event "Will the Fed hold interest rates steady in September?", an account (0xfbe66593e49c4e7a7180a2582f041158bfb800f8) that has earned over $160,000 in profit over the past month purchased $278,000 worth of shares betting the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, at an average entry price of 50.7¢, holding 389,715.1 shares.According to the settlement rules, this market will settle based on the interest rate change following the Fed's September 2026 FOMC meeting. If the rate adjustment magnitude does not fall within existing options, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points—for example, a 12.5 basis point rate cut or hike would be calculated as 25 basis points. If no relevant statement is released before the meeting concludes, the event will settle as "unchanged."The Fed's next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026. Previously, at its July meeting, the FOMC voted 9 to 3 to hold interest rates steady.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead of the curve and seize the initiative.
DeGods Founder Frank Continues to Accumulate "Niu Lai" as Holdings Surpass $500,000
Odaily News: The meme coin "Niu Lai" was listed on Binance Alpha yesterday. After a brief pullback following the news-driven surge, it rebounded in the early hours of today, briefly surpassing a $40 million market cap and currently standing at $38.03 million. DeGods founder Frank has been steadily accumulating, with his current holdings exceeding $500,000 in "Niu Lai." He mentioned that the movie "Niu Lai" will soon be screened in the United States, which is actually a viewing party organized by Polymarket. Qwerty, the top address on the "Niu Lai" profit leaderboard, reduced some of its position yesterday afternoon and has not made any further moves to reduce or increase holdings since then.
Polymarket: Probability of OpenAI Releasing Astra by August 31 Rises to 24%, Up 8% in 24 Hours
Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket "OpenAI Astra Release Date" prediction market, the probability of OpenAI releasing Astra by August 31 has risen to 24%, up 8% in the past 24 hours; the probability of a release by September 15 is currently at 61%, up 6% in the past 24 hours.According to the settlement rules, if OpenAI releases Astra before the corresponding deadline—or releases a product confirmed to be the same model as Astra—and makes it publicly available, the market settles as "Yes." Public beta testing or opening a waitlist qualifies, while closed testing and private access do not count; the primary basis for settlement is official information from OpenAI.Previously, OpenAI disclosed that it would slow down the development of Astra until appropriate safety measures are established. However, OpenAI founder Sam Altman also stated that Astra is a powerful model and that the company is working to make it available to a broader range of users.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Prediction markets price roughly 74% probability the Fed holds rates steady in September
Odaily News According to reports, multiple prediction markets are converging on pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and nearly 1% probability of a rate cut. Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option. The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
Polymarket restructures team and brings in multiple executives, accelerating compliance and U.S. expansion ahead of the fall prediction market surge
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket is undergoing an organizational upgrade in preparation for the upcoming fall trading peak, bringing in several new executives, restructuring its marketing system, and strengthening its compliance team in preparation for U.S. market expansion. Polymarket recently hired Travis VanderZanden, founder of shared e-scooter company Bird and former Uber and Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer, responsible for the company's growth strategy and marketing system development. VanderZanden stated that the prediction market is at a critical stage of rapid development, and the company needs to further improve its management team to support long-term growth.This adjustment comes as Polymarket faces regulatory scrutiny. Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had launched an investigation into its business model, related to the platform's marketing activities and promotional partnership policies. Sources say Polymarket has restructured its marketing department, updated rules for promotional partners, and provided relevant training to employees, while also hiring consulting firm AlixPartners to oversee whether content published by partners complies with the new standards.Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to strengthen its compliance and risk management capabilities for its U.S. operations. The company's U.S. trading platform has added several new executives in regulatory and risk roles, including former Robinhood executive Megan McGrath as Chief Compliance Officer for the U.S. platform, former Coinbase executive Natalie Oblazny overseeing U.S. regulatory affairs, former FBI and Coinbase employee Shana Bautista as Head of Global Investigations and Intelligence, and former Nasdaq executive Paul Jordan as Chief Risk Officer for the U.S. platform.Polymarket's U.S. trading platform went live in May this year and operates independently from its international business. With the NFL new season kicking off in September and the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, the market expects a new wave of growth in prediction market trading activity.Previously, Polymarket had already become one of the representative platforms in the prediction market space and continues to seek expanded fundraising. According to reports, the company is currently seeking a new funding round at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. As institutional investors and professional traders gradually enter the prediction market, Polymarket is attempting to transform from a retail-facing, betting-style prediction platform into a more mature financial market infrastructure. (CNBC)
Related news
NYSE Parent Intercontinental Exchange Weighs Participation in Polymarket's New Funding Round
According to Bloomberg, Jeff Sprecher, CEO of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, stated that the company will monitor the new funding round for prediction market platform Polymarket and consider participating if it helps facilitate the round. Previously, ICE had invested over $1.6 billion in Polymarket.
Polymarket odds of "Trump meeting Kim Jong-un in 2026" rise to 39%, up 16% in 24 hours
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability of "Trump meeting Kim Jong-un in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 39%, up 16% in the past 24 hours.The event rules state: if Trump meets with the relevant individual before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the outcome will be "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No." The meeting must involve Trump and the individual being physically present together for a face-to-face conversation.According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump has stated that he expects to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un later this year. When asked whether he would meet with Kim this fall, Trump gave an affirmative answer, saying he "knows Kim very well" and that "we get along very well."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead of the curve and seize the opportunity first.
Gained $8 million, 152 Polymarket wallets betting on military and defense markets boast an average win rate of 97.2%
Odaily News: Over 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded using insider information from the U.S. military, attracting copycat bettors and raising concerns that the market could leak signals exploitable by foreign adversaries. Research by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), a non-profit research organization, shows that 556 wallets it calls "killer whales" typically move quickly to make high-risk, high-reward trades in niche markets where insiders often hold an information advantage. These wallets usually cash out and exit shortly afterward. Among them, 152 wallets primarily bet on military and defense markets, collectively profiting $8 million with an average win rate of 97.2%. A Polymarket spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment. Polymarket stated that the company has strict control measures in place, closely monitors suspicious activity, and has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities, including in the case of Maduro.
Polymarket “Probability of ETH Reaching $1,900 in August” Drops to 7%, Down 43% in 24 Hours
Monitoring by PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of “ETH reaching $1,900 in August” on Polymarket has dropped to 7%, a 24-hour decline of 43%. Additionally, the probability of ETH rising to $2,400 has increased to 42%, a 24-hour gain of 40%.This market is based on the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Within the month specified in the title (from 00:00 on the 1st to 23:59 on the last day, ET), if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick is equal to or higher than the price specified in the title, it will be immediately settled as Yes; otherwise, it will be No.Only the High price of Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candlesticks is considered; prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are not included.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize opportunities.
MSX Pre-IPO Phase 2 Redemption Now Open, Polymarket Subscription Yield Reaches 33.3%.
Odaily News: According to the official announcement from MSX, the platform has officially opened redemption applications for Phase 2 Pre-IPO projects, Anthropic and Polymarket.Official data shows that as of the latest valuation, the Polymarket subscription price has risen from $152/share to $202.67/share, representing an unrealized gain of 33.3%. Anthropic's latest valuation also exceeds its subscription price.With this redemption window now open, users can choose based on their own needs to either apply for redemption at the latest market price and settle in USDT, or continue holding until the underlying projects complete their IPOs.Previously, MSX had already completed the full trading cycle for Phase 1 Pre-IPO projects, $CBRS.M and $SPCX.M, from subscription to listing. Users can log in to the MSX platform to view specific redemption rules and asset status.
Polymarket: Probability of "SOL Reaching $90 in August" Rises to 52%, Up 46% in 24 Hours
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability on Polymarket that "SOL will reach $90 in August" has risen to 52%, up 46% in the past 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of reaching $100 has climbed to 16%, marking a 15% increase over the last 24 hours.Per the settlement rules, this market uses Binance's SOL/USDT trading pair as the settlement basis. If the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick reaches or exceeds the target price during August, the market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No".OKX market data shows that SOL surged past $87 earlier this morning before pulling back, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 9%.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead of the curve and seize the initiative.