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Project Overview
Polymarket is a decentralized information markets platform that lets users trade on the world's most highly-debated topics (e.g. coronavirus, politics, current events, etc). On Polymarket, users can build a portfolio based on their forecasts and earn a return if they are correct. When users buy shares in a market, they are expressing their own knowledge, research, and view of the future. Market prices reflect what traders think are the odds of future events, turning trading activity into actionable insights to help people make better decisions. Thus, Polymarket is a leading source of unbiased and real-time data about future events.
Ignas: There Are Currently Fewer Than 20 Quality Tokens, Looking Forward to Polymarket Launching a TGE
Odaily reports: DeFi researcher Ignas posted on X that there are currently too few quality tokens in the market that truly have strong revenue support—only about 20 projects have holders generating daily revenue of over $50,000. However, this may also further concentrate capital and market attention toward a small number of projects. For this reason, he looks forward to more projects that have already generated actual revenue launching token generation events (TGEs), and hopes Polymarket will also adopt a TGE model.Ignas added that after further considering valuation, token unlocks, and revenue sustainability, the pool of viable targets will shrink even further. Although some tokens may appear attractive, their market cap to fully diluted valuation (MC/FDV) ratios are not ideal. As a result, investors need to bet that demand growth will outpace the supply growth brought by token unlocks, making some tokens more suitable for trading than for long-term holding.Ignas believes that for most tokens, what investors are still trading is narrative and market sentiment, and they need to trust that project teams will deliver on their promises. With several DAOs having recently dissolved, the so-called "decentralized" accountability mechanisms are also not sufficient.
Analyst: Variational's $1.5B FDV valuation is overly optimistic, conservative scenario could put it at just $167M
Odaily News: Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens posted on X that Polymarket's current FDV valuation of approximately $1.5 billion for Variational is somewhat overly optimistic. This pricing directly applies Hyperliquid and Lighter-level valuation-to-revenue multiples to a platform that still relies on points subsidies. By comparison, the median first-day "FDV / annualized revenue" ratio for recently launched Perp DEX tokens is only 6.3x (Variational is currently around 57x), and within the first month after TGE, trading volume typically drops sharply by a median of 54%.Shaunda added that if conservative assumptions based on historical precedents are adopted (using the median first-day "FDV/annualized revenue" ratio of 6.3x), Variational's fair valuation would be only $167 million, corresponding to a points price of $4.8–$5.4. Even using the highest recent ratio precedent (Lighter's approximately 21.1x), its valuation would still only be about $558 million, corresponding to a points price of $16–$18.However, Shaunda also explained: "To be clear, given that current market risk appetite is clearly in a Risk-on state, we do not believe Variational's valuation at TGE will fall to the extremely conservative range mentioned above. These historical multiples are listed to illustrate that current pre-market OTC pricing may be overly optimistic."
特朗普长子担任合伙人的 1789 Capital 拟为第二支成长基金募资 30 亿美元
据彭博社报道，特朗普长子小唐纳德·特朗普担任合伙人的投资公司 1789 Capital 正为第二支成长基金寻求募资 30 亿美元，目前已从现有投资者处获得约 20 亿美元资金，最终募资规模仍可能进一步扩大。 1789 Capital 目前管理资产已超过 40 亿美元，投资组合包括 Polymarket、Anduril，以及 X、xAI、SpaceX 等公司。公司计划进一步集中投资组合，减少投资项目数量，同时提高单笔投资规模并更多主导融资轮。其第一支成长基金于 2023 年推出，截至今年 6 月底回报率超过 200%。 此外，1789 Capital 此前还计划参与 Polymarket 新一轮约 10 亿美元融资，拟投入约 3 亿美元。
Donald Trump Jr.'s 1789 Capital Seeks $3 Billion for Second Growth Fund
Odaily News: Investment firm 1789 Capital, linked to Donald Trump Jr., is seeking to raise $3 billion for its second growth fund and has already secured about $2 billion from existing investors. It is reported that 1789 Capital currently manages over $4 billion in assets, with a portfolio that includes Anduril Industries Inc., Polymarket, and several companies under Elon Musk, such as X, xAI, and SpaceX.However, 1789 Capital plans to reduce the number of investments, increase the size of individual investments, and lead more funding rounds. Earlier reports indicated that 1789 Capital is considering leading a new round of approximately $1 billion for prediction market platform Polymarket, with a planned investment of about $300 million. (Bloomberg)
Polymarket's "OpenAI valuation will reach $975 billion by September 30" probability rises to 63%, up 30% in 24 hours
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's "OpenAI valuation will reach $975 billion by September 30" probability has risen to 63%, up 30% in 24 hours.If, as of September 30, 2026, OpenAI's private market valuation as published on the Nasdaq Private Market has reached or exceeded $975 billion, it will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No."If OpenAI completes an IPO or direct listing during this period, the listing pricing and post-listing public market capitalization will also be taken into account. Subsequent revisions to historical data by NPM are generally not counted, unless they are corrections of obvious data errors.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the advantage.
Typesafe AI Opens Jev Model, Monad Engineer Uses It to Build 300-Millisecond On-Chain Trading Bot
Odaily reports: AI model developer Typesafe AI has announced the opening of its System One model Jev, removing the waitlist and giving each new user $5 in credits. The project has been developed in stealth for two years and has raised $40 million in cumulative funding.Jev does not support chat; it only accepts facts and closed-ended questions, returning probabilistic results within 70 to 500 milliseconds. Input pricing is $0.042 per million tokens, and output is free. It can answer questions such as buy or sell, yes or no.In a Bitcoin price prediction test, Jev estimated a 55% probability that Binance's one-minute K-line would reach $85,000 before 2027, with probabilities of 48% and 34% for reaching $90,000 and $100,000, respectively; the corresponding Polymarket market probability for $85,000 was 81%.On September 16, Monad Chief AI Engineer Jarrod Watts connected Jev to price data and built a trading bot that submits limit orders to the Kuru on-chain order book approximately every 300 milliseconds. The bot can decide whether to buy or sell based on Jev's judgments and has been open-sourced on GitHub as jarrodwatts/jev-trader. (Bitcoin.com News)
CFTC Proposes to Include Prediction Market Event Contracts in "Swaps" Definition to Draw a Clear Line From Gambling
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has submitted two proposed rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB): one would formally classify event contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood under the regulatory definition of "swaps"; the other would explicitly exclude casino-style gambling products from the swaps category. This move aims to respond to recent federal court rulings—the Sixth and Eighth Circuits both ruled that Kalshi's sports-related contracts do not qualify as swaps and should be subject to state gambling regulations, while the Third Circuit upheld the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets. With conflicting rulings across the circuits, the matter may ultimately need to be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. Currently, the CFTC comprises only one commissioner, Chair Mike Selig, with all related decisions made solely by him.
Polymarket Launches Anti-Addiction Protection Measures in Response to Regulatory Pressure
According to CNN, prediction market Polymarket has announced a series of consumer protection measures, including deposit limits for users, an "exclusion list" feature (allowing temporary or permanent account blocks), and a partnership with virtual gambling addiction treatment company Birches Health to provide mental health resources. Against this backdrop, New York filed a lawsuit against Polymarket a week ago, accusing it of circumventing New York's strict gambling regulations; Polymarket has since filed a counterclaim in federal court. Currently, a bipartisan coalition of 44 states is arguing in court that prediction platforms should be subject to state gambling laws.
Polymarket odds for "Trump to officially rename AI by December 31" rise to 66%, up 17% in a single week
According to monitoring by PPP prediction market tool, Polymarket odds for "Trump to officially rename AI by December 31" have risen to 66%, up 17% in a single week.According to the settlement rules, Trump must formally adopt a new official name for "AI" or require the federal government to adopt a new name via executive order, presidential proclamation, or presidential memorandum before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the specified date. Public statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts do not count.Previously, Trump reiterated his opposition to regulating Artificial Intelligence (AI) during a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. He also stated that the term "Artificial Intelligence" underestimates the value of this technology and expressed hope that countries around the world would also adopt the new name "Super Intelligence."Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket Bank Failure Bets Spark FDIC Concerns
According to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter, bets on Polymarket regarding the likelihood of major banks such as Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America collapsing are drawing attention from U.S. regulators and members of Congress. While these contracts currently represent only a small portion of trading on this offshore prediction market platform, some officials fear that expanding trading volumes could exacerbate market panic and fuel real-world bank runs. Polymarket stated that its platform prohibits U.S. users from participating.
New York State Sues Polymarket, Alleging It Operates an Unlicensed Gambling Business
According to Crowdfund Insider, New York Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul have filed a civil lawsuit against QCX LLC, the operating entity behind Polymarket US, alleging that it ran an unlicensed gambling business by offering event contracts for sports, elections, and other occurrences to local users through prediction markets without authorization from the New York State Gaming Commission. The complaint also notes that the minimum age for mobile sports betting in New York is 21, whereas Polymarket allegedly permits users aged 18 to 20 to participate. New York seeks a court order to halt Polymarket’s related operations and advertising campaigns within the state, demanding the forfeiture of alleged illicit gains, compensation to users, and civil fines of up to three times the relevant earnings; for unauthorized sports betting activities, the state also mandates an additional $100,000 penalty for each instance of providing or attempting to provide such services. Polymarket Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar stated that the company plans to contest the lawsuit. According to reports, Polymarket subsequently filed its own lawsuit, arguing that such event contracts fall under the exclusive regulatory authority of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Polymarket lobbies EU to bring prediction markets under MiFID regulation
According to FT reports, Polymarket is conducting regulatory outreach across the UK and several EU countries, seeking to classify prediction market contracts as financial derivatives and bring them under financial regulatory frameworks such as MiFID, rather than subjecting them to gambling regulations. The company has already contacted the European Securities and Markets Authority, the European Commission, and the UK Financial Conduct Authority, and plans to apply for relevant European licenses.
Analyst: Variational's $1.5B FDV valuation is overly optimistic, conservative scenario could put it at just $167M
Odaily News: Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens posted on X that Polymarket's current FDV valuation of approximately $1.5 billion for Variational is somewhat overly optimistic. This pricing directly applies Hyperliquid and Lighter-level valuation-to-revenue multiples to a platform that still relies on points subsidies. By comparison, the median first-day "FDV / annualized revenue" ratio for recently launched Perp DEX tokens is only 6.3x (Variational is currently around 57x), and within the first month after TGE, trading volume typically drops sharply by a median of 54%.Shaunda added that if conservative assumptions based on historical precedents are adopted (using the median first-day "FDV/annualized revenue" ratio of 6.3x), Variational's fair valuation would be only $167 million, corresponding to a points price of $4.8–$5.4. Even using the highest recent ratio precedent (Lighter's approximately 21.1x), its valuation would still only be about $558 million, corresponding to a points price of $16–$18.However, Shaunda also explained: "To be clear, given that current market risk appetite is clearly in a Risk-on state, we do not believe Variational's valuation at TGE will fall to the extremely conservative range mentioned above. These historical multiples are listed to illustrate that current pre-market OTC pricing may be overly optimistic."
Analysis: Binance Wallet Launches Pre-Access, First Project May Be $pPOLY
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Alpha Malik (@AlphaByMalik), Binance Wallet today launched the Pre-Access feature sponsored by PancakeSwap, allowing users to gain indirect exposure to trending projects prior to potential listings. On-chain data indicates that Binance Alpha may list the Paimon Polymarket SPV Token ($pPOLY) at 09:00 UTC on September 24, which could become the first project launched through Pre-Access. Contract address: 0x1d80392d12caaaf9e333bb0bb7f021eacf297fe6. This information is based solely on on-chain data and has not been officially confirmed; please follow official announcements from Binance Wallet and Binance Alpha.
3 Insider Trading Investigations Approved, CFTC Involves Polymarket Biden Pardon, Iran War, and Google Contracts
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously secretly approved 3 insider trading investigations into Polymarket trading, involving Biden pardon, Iran war, and Google-related event contracts. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig approved an investigation in May into contracts related to the Biden pardon, after a trader had profited over $300,000 from the related market; in the same month, the CFTC also approved an investigation into Iran war contracts, after a group of suspicious accounts was exposed for profiting $2.4 million with a win rate of approximately 98%. In July, the CFTC further launched an investigation into Google-related Polymarket contracts, focusing on individuals who may have used non-public information about Google's 2025 search rankings to trade. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York is also conducting a parallel investigation, and Polymarket stated that it has referred the relevant matters to law enforcement and is cooperating with the investigation.
Tema Launches Prediction Market ETF, Allocating 15% of Positions to Kalshi and Polymarket Private Assets
Odaily News - Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Tema is launching a prediction market ETF. However, this product is a thematic ETF, not an actual event contract ETF, which the SEC is still considering. The ETF will allocate 15% of its positions to private assets from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a management fee of 75 basis points.
Polymarket probability of "foldable iPhone US launch price above $2,300" drops to 15%, down 35% in a week
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability on Polymarket that the "foldable iPhone's US launch price will exceed $2,300" has dropped to 15%, down 35% over the past week; the probability of it exceeding $2,200 has fallen to 42%, down 17% week-over-week.The event contract rules state: any foldable smartphone released by Apple will be considered a foldable iPhone, even if it is not explicitly named as such. If the price of the foldable iPhone at its initial US launch is greater than or equal to the specified amount, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If Apple releases multiple foldable iPhone models, the lowest announced starting price will be used. If Apple does not announce the price of the foldable iPhone by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the market will resolve to "No."According to an official announcement from Apple, the fall 2026 new product launch event will be held at 1:00 AM Beijing time on September 10, themed "Surprise and shine." However, pricing for the device unexpectedly leaked from overseas carrier Vodafone's backend systems in Australia and Egypt. The Australian channel reveals that the iPhone Ultra will be available in 256GB, 512GB, and 1TB storage options, starting at AUD 3,699. Industry observers estimate that the US starting price for the Ultra could land near $2,000.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Amid renewed U.S.-Iran clashes, Polymarket trader xm39 significantly increases position on "Invasion of Iran" prediction shares
Odaily News - Polymarket trader "xm39" has continued to increase positions on geopolitical conflict-related prediction events on Polymarket, placing three separate buys totaling 274,500 shares on the U.S. invading Iran before 2027, filled at probabilities of 14%, 15%, and 16%, with an investment of approximately $41,700.Currently, xm39 holds a cumulative total of 642,300 Yes shares, with a total cost of approximately $127,100 and an unrealized loss of roughly $27,600.Additionally, its associated address also added approximately 28,400 WTI short contracts against the market trend, with a trading volume of around $2.401 million. As oil prices continued to rise, the address closed out all 107,400 short contracts at 9:01 AM, with an average closing price of approximately $84.86, recording a realized loss of roughly $131,500. Just about 10 minutes later, its trading direction flipped from short to long. The address subsequently bought approximately 64,700 WTI contracts consecutively and currently holds about $5.531 million in long positions with 20x full margin, with an unrealized profit of around $18,200, a margin return rate of approximately 6.6%, and a liquidation price of about $64.88.
Polymarket probability of "Next round of US-Iran peace talks before August 31" rises to 51%, up 17% in 24 hours
Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of "Next round of US-Iran peace talks before August 31" on Polymarket has risen to 51%, up 17% in 24 hours; the probability of talks occurring before August 15 has risen to 27%, up 13% in 24 hours.Trump posted on social media today stating that he received a request from Iran to delay the attack and agreed to cancel the strike on Iran in exchange for an agreement. He noted that the U.S. is prepared to confront Iran with a level of military deterrence, strength, and capability unseen since World War II, as a framework for an agreement has already been reached. This framework includes the immediate, complete, and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as ending Iran's nuclear threat. Based on this request, he agreed to cancel the attack for the future interests of the world and the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, provided that an agreement can be reached promptly.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the initiative.
Polymarket's "US-Iran ceasefire before July 24" probability drops to 36%, down 15% in 24 hours
The PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of a "ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 24" on Polymarket has dropped to 36%, down 15% in 24 hours.This event will settle as "Yes" if the US does not take any military actions that meet the defined criteria against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will settle as "No."Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Excluded actions include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyberattacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of relevant military actions, the event will await consensus from official information and credible media before being adjudicated. If disagreements persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time. The settlement basis includes official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, as well as reports from credible media outlets.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket probability of "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" rises to 59%, up 19% in a single day
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" on Polymarket has risen to 59%, up 19% in a single day.This event will settle as "Yes" if the US takes no qualifying military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will settle as "No."Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.Actions not counted include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyber attacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a military action, the event will await a consensus formed by official information and credible media before being adjudicated. If differences persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time.Settlement will be based on official information from the US and Iranian governments and military, as well as credible media reports.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket launches "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire"
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market for "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 stands at 5%; for July 24, it is 15%; for July 31, it is 23%; for August 14, it is 43%; and for August 31, it is 54%.The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US takes no military action against Iran between the market creation and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, this market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action that occurs. This period lasts until 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action during this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be considered "Yes."So-called "qualifying military actions" refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated by the US directly targeting Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial drones launched from the air. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.Qualifying military actions include: munitions that are destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery; howitzer, cannon, mortar, and rocket artillery (e.g., Multiple Launch Rocket Systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close-air support drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet been acted upon.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket: "WTI crude oil will rise to $80 by July 2026" probability reaches 47%, up 28% in 24 hours
According to PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring, the probability of "WTI crude oil rising to $80 by July 2026" on Polymarket has reached 47%, up 28% in 24 hours.Trump stated today that he may launch a large-scale attack on Iran. As the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran becomes precarious, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has "basically come to a standstill." Kpler senior oil analyst Navin Das stated that since the US and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement on June 17, the average daily number of tankers passing through has been approximately 32. This figure is nearly three times the average daily traffic between the outbreak of the conflict (February) and the signing of the agreement on June 17, though still far below pre-war levels.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket 遭攻击 300 万美元用户资金被盗
预测市场平台 Polymarket 因第三方供应商被黑，约 300 万美元用户资金被盗，平台称将全额退款。
Probability on Polymarket that GPT Astra 6.1+ will be released before October 31 rises to 46%, up 21% in 24 hours
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "GPT Astra 6.1+ release date" prediction market, the probability that GPT Astra 6.1+ will be released before October 31 has risen to 46%, up 21% in 24 hours.According to the resolution rules, if OpenAI makes available to the public a GPT model with a version number of 6.1 or higher and with "Astra" included in its name or model identifier before the specified date, the corresponding market will resolve to "Yes." The model must actually be made available for public use; closed beta testing or placeholder names appearing only on the official website will not count, and resolution will primarily be based on official information from OpenAI.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.
CFTC Proposes to Include Prediction Market Event Contracts in "Swaps" Definition to Draw a Clear Line From Gambling
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has submitted two proposed rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB): one would formally classify event contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood under the regulatory definition of "swaps"; the other would explicitly exclude casino-style gambling products from the swaps category. This move aims to respond to recent federal court rulings—the Sixth and Eighth Circuits both ruled that Kalshi's sports-related contracts do not qualify as swaps and should be subject to state gambling regulations, while the Third Circuit upheld the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets. With conflicting rulings across the circuits, the matter may ultimately need to be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. Currently, the CFTC comprises only one commissioner, Chair Mike Selig, with all related decisions made solely by him.
Polymarket to Open New CLOB Market Maker Testing in November, Plans to Complete Two Migration Drills
Odaily reports: Josh, Vice President of prediction market Polymarket, stated on X that the team is fully developing a Rust-based full central limit order book (CLOB), and the current CLOB is the root cause of most of the platform's issues.According to the plan, October will see the completion of the full order lifecycle process in the testing environment, including trading, settlement, on-chain interactions, indexer, and engine notifications; in November, all production traffic will be mirrored to the new trading cluster and results will be compared with the existing system. At the same time, testing access will be opened to market makers, and the migration and switchover plan will be finalized, with two full drills completed before the official switchover. Josh also stated that if progress goes smoothly, the new system will be officially launched afterward, and the migration is expected to require no changes or only minimal changes for market makers and developers.
Polymarket odds for "Trump to officially rename AI by December 31" rise to 66%, up 17% in a single week
According to monitoring by PPP prediction market tool, Polymarket odds for "Trump to officially rename AI by December 31" have risen to 66%, up 17% in a single week.According to the settlement rules, Trump must formally adopt a new official name for "AI" or require the federal government to adopt a new name via executive order, presidential proclamation, or presidential memorandum before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the specified date. Public statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts do not count.Previously, Trump reiterated his opposition to regulating Artificial Intelligence (AI) during a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. He also stated that the term "Artificial Intelligence" underestimates the value of this technology and expressed hope that countries around the world would also adopt the new name "Super Intelligence."Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polygon Co-founder: Will Burn an Additional 25 Million POL Tokens, PoS Confirmation Time Approaches 1 Millisecond
Polygon co-founder Sandeep posted on X that the POL community has recently accumulated and permanently burned 100 million POL tokens through on-chain revenue, accounting for approximately 1% of the total supply, with an additional ~25 million POL to be burned subsequently. Sandeep also stated that POL (formerly MATIC) remains the "most undervalued and overlooked project." He noted that Polymarket has already launched perpetual contracts on Polygon. Following recent upgrades, Polygon PoS is gradually evolving into a more advanced blockchain, expected to achieve 1-millisecond confirmation times via block streaming in the future. Additionally, OMS will soon increase Polygon's daily transaction processing capacity by approximately 1 million.
Analyst: Variational's $1.5B FDV valuation is overly optimistic, conservative scenario could put it at just $167M
Odaily News: Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens posted on X that Polymarket's current FDV valuation of approximately $1.5 billion for Variational is somewhat overly optimistic. This pricing directly applies Hyperliquid and Lighter-level valuation-to-revenue multiples to a platform that still relies on points subsidies. By comparison, the median first-day "FDV / annualized revenue" ratio for recently launched Perp DEX tokens is only 6.3x (Variational is currently around 57x), and within the first month after TGE, trading volume typically drops sharply by a median of 54%.Shaunda added that if conservative assumptions based on historical precedents are adopted (using the median first-day "FDV/annualized revenue" ratio of 6.3x), Variational's fair valuation would be only $167 million, corresponding to a points price of $4.8–$5.4. Even using the highest recent ratio precedent (Lighter's approximately 21.1x), its valuation would still only be about $558 million, corresponding to a points price of $16–$18.However, Shaunda also explained: "To be clear, given that current market risk appetite is clearly in a Risk-on state, we do not believe Variational's valuation at TGE will fall to the extremely conservative range mentioned above. These historical multiples are listed to illustrate that current pre-market OTC pricing may be overly optimistic."
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Polymarket has a 16% probability of launching an official token before March 31, 2027
predict.fun posted on X platform stating that Polymarket has a 16% probability of launching an official token before March 31, 2027.
Bitcoin prediction market trading volume reaches $72.6 million, with a 39% probability of hitting $100,000
Polymarket's Bitcoin 2026 price prediction market has reached $72.6 million in trading volume, with a reference price of approximately $84,950. Market-implied probabilities show that Bitcoin has a 73%, 54%, and 39% chance of reaching $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 respectively before 2027.Kalshi's Bitcoin year-end closing price prediction market has a trading volume of approximately $39.5 million, with a predicted value of $86,240. Claude Opus 5.5 and ChatGPT-6 Astra predict Bitcoin's price on December 31, 2026 to be $91,500 and $94,000 respectively. (Bitcoin.com News)
Probability on Polymarket that GPT Astra 6.1+ will be released before October 31 rises to 46%, up 21% in 24 hours
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "GPT Astra 6.1+ release date" prediction market, the probability that GPT Astra 6.1+ will be released before October 31 has risen to 46%, up 21% in 24 hours.According to the resolution rules, if OpenAI makes available to the public a GPT model with a version number of 6.1 or higher and with "Astra" included in its name or model identifier before the specified date, the corresponding market will resolve to "Yes." The model must actually be made available for public use; closed beta testing or placeholder names appearing only on the official website will not count, and resolution will primarily be based on official information from OpenAI.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.
Polymarket's "Yamal to win 2026 Ballon d'Or" odds rise to 54%, up 9% in 24 hours
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "Lamine Yamal winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or" has risen to 54%, up 9% in 24 hours; the probability of Harry Kane winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or has fallen to 39%, down 4% in 24 hours.According to the settlement rules, this market will be settled based on the final winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or. If the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner has not been announced by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market will settle as "Other."Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
CFTC Proposes to Include Prediction Market Event Contracts in "Swaps" Definition to Draw a Clear Line From Gambling
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has submitted two proposed rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB): one would formally classify event contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood under the regulatory definition of "swaps"; the other would explicitly exclude casino-style gambling products from the swaps category. This move aims to respond to recent federal court rulings—the Sixth and Eighth Circuits both ruled that Kalshi's sports-related contracts do not qualify as swaps and should be subject to state gambling regulations, while the Third Circuit upheld the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets. With conflicting rulings across the circuits, the matter may ultimately need to be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. Currently, the CFTC comprises only one commissioner, Chair Mike Selig, with all related decisions made solely by him.
After the PCE data release, Polymarket's probability of "a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October" dropped to 32%, down 10% in 1 hour
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that after the PCE data release, the probability on Polymarket of "a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October" dropped to 32%, down 10% in 1 hour; the probability of holding rates unchanged rose to 69%, up 10% in 1 hour.The U.S. August core PCE price index came in at 3% year-over-year, a slight decline from the previous month and below market expectations, hitting a new low since February, with market expectations at 3.3%. In addition, ADP employment growth exceeded expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields edged higher.Join the PPP signal push community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.