News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Lorenzo Valente, Head of Digital Asset Research at investment firm ARK Invest, stated that Hyperliquid is in discussions with the CFTC and SEC to facilitate the offering of perpetual futures on its public chain by U.S.-regulated companies. He suggested that Hyperliquid acquire Gemini to position it as a U.S.-regulated HIP-3/4 deployer. He noted that Gemini's current market value is approximately $450 million, representing a decline of over 85% from its $3.3 billion valuation at the time of its 2025 IPO. Hyperliquid could obtain Gemini's entire U.S. regulatory infrastructure—including the NYDFS Trust Charter, DCM, DCO, FCM, MTLs, and Broker-dealer—for approximately $450 million.He further proposed that Hyperliquid could use approximately 7.9 million HYPE tokens from its community reserve, valued at around $550 million at $70 per token, to complete the acquisition at a premium of roughly 20% over Gemini's current market value. Following the transaction, Gemini would handle KYC, custody, fiat on/off ramps, brokerage, clearing, and compliance for the U.S. market, while Hyperliquid L1 would provide the underlying market infrastructure, liquidity, and on-chain settlement. He cited Polymarket's acquisition of QCEX as a similar precedent for re-entering the U.S. market, and stated that the core of this potential deal is not acquiring an exchange, but rather securing the regulatory bridge for HIP-3/4 to enter the U.S. market.
Odaily News - Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine stated that the window for the Clarity Act to pass before the November midterm elections is closing rapidly. Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026, he estimated that the probability of the bill becoming law before the midterms is only about 10%.Whitehouse-Levine described the bill as currently being in "August recess purgatory." He noted that the Senate has been working on the legislation for over a year, but as time in the current Congress runs out, completing the legislative process is becoming increasingly difficult.He added that the procedural motion scheduled for September 15 is only the first step in a series of votes needed to move the bill forward, so he remains "hopeful, but realistic about the odds."This assessment is more pessimistic than that of prediction markets. Polymarket currently shows a 21% probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law by year-end, with trading volume exceeding $7 million on the relevant market; Kalshi puts the probability at 23%, down from 50% less than a month ago.
Odaily Odaily News: The White House plans to host a tech industry leaders event with Trump tomorrow, with multiple tech industry leaders expected to attend. According to White House sources, prediction market companies were not invited to this event and will not be present. Previously, sources familiar with the matter revealed that President Trump is expected to attend a crypto industry innovation meeting to be held at the White House next week, engaging in discussions with executives from multiple crypto companies as well as heads of prediction market and AI firms. Executives from companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Kalshi are expected to participate and serve as members of the newly established Innovation Advisory Committee under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The meeting is expected to be held at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, discussing U.S. policies on innovation areas including fintech, crypto assets, prediction markets, and AI. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig and other government advisors are also expected to attend, and Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick may also be present.
韩国广播媒体通信审议委员会于 8月 18 日决定，对海外预测市场平台 Polymarket 采取接入屏蔽措施。该机构认为，Polymarket 提供涉及政治、支付、体育、选举、天气等事件结果的预测交易，具有“赢家通吃”式损益结构，可能助长投机心理，并构成面向韩国用户的非法赌博环境。
Odaily News According to reports, multiple prediction markets are converging on pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and nearly 1% probability of a rate cut. Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option. The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
According to Reuters, people familiar with the matter said that JPMorgan Chase terminated banking services for prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns, asking it to seek another banking institution. Despite this, both parties still maintain business relations, and JPMorgan Chase is also interested in pursuing Polymarket's future IPO underwriting opportunities.
the city of Baltimore and Mayor Brendan Scott have filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing the two companies of violating local gambling laws and regulations on deceptive business practices. The Mayor's office stated on Thursday that the two companies operate "illegal, unlicensed sports betting platforms" and mislead users about the legality and regulatory status of their products. The city of Baltimore argues that Kalshi and Polymarket describe event contracts as trading, but the transactions in question are essentially illegal gambling prohibited under state law. The complaint against Kalshi also names Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase as partners on its prediction market platform, alleging that these companies promote sports contracts as products that can be legally purchased and traded in Maryland. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the companies involved maintain that prediction market event contracts fall under the category of "swaps" within their regulatory scope. Polymarket stated that prediction markets operated on CFTC-registered exchanges are governed by federal law and should not be subject to state and local regulations. (Cointelegraph)
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of an "Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement before the end of August" has dropped to 36%, down 21% in 24 hours; the probability of an Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement before the end of September has dropped to 66%, down 14% in 24 hours.The event rules state: If Oman and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement regarding traffic in the Strait of Hormuz before the specified date (11:59 PM ET), the outcome will be judged as "Yes." A diplomatic agreement refers to a formal agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument between Oman and Iran that aligns on relevant actions, policies, obligations, or commitments. Credible sources include official information from the Omani and Iranian governments, as well as a consensus of credible reports.Iran's Supreme National Security Council previously stated that if Iran and Oman reach an agreement on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, that agreement will be handled separately from the issue of the strait's closure. As long as the U.S. does not change its behavior or accept Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen. The U.S. must end the war, release frozen Iranian funds, and bring an end to all conflicts across the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza. Additionally, other conditions communicated to Washington via intermediaries must also be met.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the initiative.
According to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool, in Polymarket's "2026 U.S. Midterm Election Congressional Control" prediction market, the probability of Democrats controlling both the Senate and the House is currently reported at 50%; the probability of Republicans controlling the Senate and Democrats controlling the House is reported at 38%; and the probability of Republicans controlling both chambers is reported at 12%.According to the settlement rules, this market will be settled based on which party—Democratic or Republican—controls the Senate and the House following the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. In principle, the party that wins a majority of seats in each chamber gains control. However, if no party wins a majority of seats, the party that holds half of the voting seats while also occupying the U.S. Vice Presidency will be deemed to control the Senate.The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will officially take place on November 3, 2026. Jesse Spiro, a Tether U.S. executive, previously stated that the 2026 U.S. midterm elections could reshape the congressional political landscape, thereby affecting the regulatory progress the crypto industry has achieved in Washington over the past two years.Join the PPP signal push community to stay ahead and seize the initiative.
The New York City Council has launched an investigation into the marketing practices of prediction market companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket to verify whether they are targeting young adults with misleading tactics.
According to The Block, the New York City Council has launched an investigation into four prediction market platforms—Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini Titan—alleging they employed "false, deceptive, or abusive" marketing tactics targeting young users. Among them, Polymarket was accused of paying social media creators to film videos placing fake bets on counterfeit websites, an incident first disclosed by The Wall Street Journal in June this year. Additionally, prediction market platforms face insider trading allegations; New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order in April prohibiting state government employees from using confidential government information to place bets on prediction markets.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket is undergoing an organizational upgrade in preparation for the upcoming fall trading peak, bringing in several new executives, restructuring its marketing system, and strengthening its compliance team in preparation for U.S. market expansion. Polymarket recently hired Travis VanderZanden, founder of shared e-scooter company Bird and former Uber and Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer, responsible for the company's growth strategy and marketing system development. VanderZanden stated that the prediction market is at a critical stage of rapid development, and the company needs to further improve its management team to support long-term growth.This adjustment comes as Polymarket faces regulatory scrutiny. Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had launched an investigation into its business model, related to the platform's marketing activities and promotional partnership policies. Sources say Polymarket has restructured its marketing department, updated rules for promotional partners, and provided relevant training to employees, while also hiring consulting firm AlixPartners to oversee whether content published by partners complies with the new standards.Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to strengthen its compliance and risk management capabilities for its U.S. operations. The company's U.S. trading platform has added several new executives in regulatory and risk roles, including former Robinhood executive Megan McGrath as Chief Compliance Officer for the U.S. platform, former Coinbase executive Natalie Oblazny overseeing U.S. regulatory affairs, former FBI and Coinbase employee Shana Bautista as Head of Global Investigations and Intelligence, and former Nasdaq executive Paul Jordan as Chief Risk Officer for the U.S. platform.Polymarket's U.S. trading platform went live in May this year and operates independently from its international business. With the NFL new season kicking off in September and the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, the market expects a new wave of growth in prediction market trading activity.Previously, Polymarket had already become one of the representative platforms in the prediction market space and continues to seek expanded fundraising. According to reports, the company is currently seeking a new funding round at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. As institutional investors and professional traders gradually enter the prediction market, Polymarket is attempting to transform from a retail-facing, betting-style prediction platform into a more mature financial market infrastructure. (CNBC)
Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by December 31 stands at 21%, with related contract trading volume exceeding $5.5 million as of August 9. Galaxy Research had previously lowered its expectation for the bill's passage in 2026 from 50% to 30%. On August 8, the U.S. Senate filed a motion to invoke cloture on the motion to advance the bill, but no full chamber vote was held. Senators will return on September 14, and per procedural rules, the first cloture vote is scheduled for September 15. The CLARITY Act aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. Senate negotiations still involve three unresolved issues: ethics enforcement, illicit financial activity provisions, and stablecoin yield. The bill will need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
Odaily News As prediction markets gradually expand into the realms of politics and government decision-making, insider trading risks are becoming a regulatory focus. U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has stated that it has identified multiple suspected cases of insider trading and has submitted the relevant leads to federal regulators.Kalshi spokesperson Laura Frank stated that the company prohibits market manipulation and insider trading and has established a trading surveillance system similar to those used in securities markets. Earlier this year, Kalshi's monitoring system flagged suspicious trading activity by former Congressman George Santos in markets related to the U.S. President's State of the Union address. The company subsequently submitted its investigative findings to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Additionally, federal agencies are investigating whether former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez used advance knowledge of Trump's speech content to trade on Kalshi-related markets.Meanwhile, the Trump family is accelerating its push into the prediction market space. Trump Media & Technology Group is developing a prediction market platform called TruthPredict, which will allow users to trade prediction contracts tied to major events. The company is also launching Truth API, providing Wall Street with high-speed data access to Truth Social content.Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of the former president, currently serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, while his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, has invested in rival Polymarket and joined its advisory board. This means the Trump family is simultaneously linked to the two leading prediction market platforms, while Trump Media Group is also building its own prediction market business.Although there is currently no public evidence showing that Donald Trump Jr. or the Trump family has traded using inside government information, the potential conflicts of interest arising from the intertwining of presidential public information, market trading, and family business interests are drawing growing external scrutiny.As of now, Donald Trump Jr.'s team and Trump Media & Technology Group have not immediately responded to requests for comment. (Fortune)
Odaily News: Polymarket will replace single-price snapshots with time-weighted average prices in short-term cryptocurrency markets for settling related contracts. This follows research and trader complaints indicating widespread manipulation in its settlement process. A study on 5-minute Bitcoin contracts found that some large Binance trades occurred in the final seconds before settlement and appeared to drive price movements; within potentially manipulated settlement windows, the majority of losses were borne by retail traders. The new system will use Chainlink Data Streams and short-duration TWAP windows. This mechanism is similar to the safeguards used by competing platform Kalshi, which relies on regulated price indices and moving averages to increase the difficulty and cost of short-term price distortion.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan posted that if the Clarity Act fails to pass this week, the ideal scenario is for Polymarket odds to drop significantly to the teens to eliminate market uncertainty. He pointed out that the market may experience brief volatility at that time, but it will create conditions for an autumn market rebound.
Odaily News: Nine U.S. Democratic senators have sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig, urging a ban on event contracts related to wildfires, arguing that such contracts could encourage arson, insider trading, and pose risks to public safety. In the letter, the senators noted that Polymarket has accepted over $1.2 million in bets related to the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires in California. They also pointed out that some new platforms allow users to wager on wildfires, with such markets enabling speculation on destructive events. The senators stated that the CFTC should rein in such betting before the start of next year's wildfire season and establish safeguards in both U.S. and offshore markets. Recent disputes over prediction market regulation have persisted, with related cases in Minnesota, Kentucky, and Michigan raising questions about federal and state regulatory authority.
According to Cryptopolitan, the U.S. Senate is scheduled to enter recess on August 7, leaving an extremely limited window for the CLARITY Act to pass before then. If voting is not completed this week, the next feasible window will be delayed until September, and if missed again, it could be postponed until after the midterm elections, meaning enactment may not occur until 2027. The main disagreement over the bill currently lies in the Democrats' insistence on adding crypto ethics clauses for senior government officials, but the consolidated draft has not yet incorporated relevant provisions. During the regulatory vacuum, large institutions such as Coinbase and Circle are better equipped to adapt to the uncertain environment due to their capital strength—ARK Invest increased its holdings in both companies this week, and Circle was approved for a federal national trust bank charter in July—while small and medium-sized crypto enterprises and DeFi projects continue to face pressure. In terms of the market, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing within 2026 has dropped to 23%, a significant decline from Galaxy Research's prediction of 67%–75% in mid-May.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.