News linked to both this project and an event.
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
The U.S. Senate has unanimously passed a resolution (S. Res. 708) prohibiting senators from participating in prediction market trading, effective immediately. The proposal, introduced by Bernie Moreno, aims to curb speculative trading using non-public information.Several recent related incidents have drawn regulatory attention, including cases where individuals profited from prediction markets using confidential information. Meanwhile, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are also strengthening internal controls to prevent insider trading.At the state level, New York and Illinois have also implemented similar measures, restricting public officials from using non-public information to participate in prediction markets.
Polymarket announced the launch of an on-chain market integrity monitoring system solution to monitor trading behavior and enforce platform market compliance rules. The system will be built in collaboration with blockchain data analytics firm Chainalysis, covering the entire Polymarket DeFi transaction process, including real-time on-chain analysis of trading, positions, and settlement data, and identifying potential misconduct through multi-layered monitoring mechanisms, with a focus on insider trading and market manipulation.Polymarket stated that all its transactions are completed on a public blockchain. This collaboration will further amplify the advantages of on-chain transparency, enabling regulators and law enforcement agencies to obtain verifiable on-chain evidence, thereby establishing new compliance standards in the prediction market sector. Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan stated that the platform has emphasized transparency and traceability since its inception, and this collaboration will further solidify its positioning as a "trustworthy source of market information." (Businesswire)
Polymarket is in communication with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), seeking to reopen its main platform to users in the United States. If approved, this could mean the lifting of restrictions on U.S. users that have been in place since its 2022 settlement with the CFTC.According to the report, Polymarket had already made a limited return to the U.S. market through the regulated QCEX structure. A full return would further intensify the competitive landscape of the U.S. prediction market. (Cointelegraph)
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Channel shows that the probability of "MegaETH TGE Tomorrow" on Polymarket is currently at 97%, up 6% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of nearly $2.5 million.Additionally, last night MegaETH announced the launch of its Odyssey event, running from April 28 to June 23. After the event concludes, eligible participants will receive rewards based on their activity level, subject to meeting qualification requirements, sanctions screening, and successful completion of KYC verification.This market will settle as "Yes" if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date indicated in the title; otherwise, it will settle as "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable; a mere announcement does not constitute fulfilling the condition.This market primarily relies on official information from MegaETH as the basis for settlement, while also referencing consensus formed by credible media reports.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event regarding "What will Powell say at the April press conference," the probability of purchasing "Good Afternoon" has risen to 98.3%. As the transaction price is close to 98.3¢, the total trading volume for this event currently stands at $57,749.In related context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to hold the April monetary policy press conference. As his term is set to expire in mid-next month, this press conference is viewed as a final act of his career. Based on historical precedent, Powell habitually greets the media with "good afternoon" at the start of each press conference. Although the market is currently under pressure from a high-interest-rate environment, bettors have shown extremely high consensus in predicting this customary phrasing.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.
Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday sued the state of Wisconsin in an effort to uphold its regulatory authority after the state filed lawsuits against multiple prediction market platforms. In a statement, the CFTC said the lawsuit was filed in response to Wisconsin's legal actions against five CFTC-regulated prediction market operators: Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that states cannot circumvent clear congressional directives, and the agency will take legal action if they interfere with the implementation of federal laws regulating financial markets. This marks the fifth such lawsuit the CFTC has initiated against a U.S. state, following previous actions against New York, Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois. Wisconsin had previously argued that prediction market contracts related to sporting events constitute illegal gambling and must obtain a state gambling license. The CFTC, jointly with the U.S. Department of Justice's Civil Division, filed a complaint in Wisconsin federal court, asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction market event contracts operating as designated contract markets. The defendants include Wisconsin Governor Anthony Evers, state Attorney General Josh Kaul, and the state's gambling division.
According to Fortune magazine, as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerate coordination with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on insider trading, Robin Hanson—a founding theorist of prediction markets and economics professor at George Mason University—publicly voiced his disapproval, stating that “insider participation in trading” is precisely the core value underpinning prediction markets. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. military servicemember with using classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket regarding a Venezuelan raid operation, illegally profiting approximately $400,000. In response, Robin Hanson remarked: “You want them to trade. You want prices to be as accurate as possible—the market’s purpose is to aid decision-making.” Robin Hanson argues that, like all economic models, insiders will trade: informed participants buy “yes” contracts, thereby driving prices upward toward the truth. If insiders refrain from betting, the information-discovery function of prediction markets would be severely weakened, and such markets would fail to reflect real-world outcomes faster than news media or public opinion polls. Insider trading is likewise widespread in traditional financial markets, yet regulators address only a tiny fraction of cases. Prediction markets, like investigative journalism, are fundamentally mechanisms designed to accelerate information disclosure—and thus should not be subject to blanket prohibition. As a compromise, Robin Hanson proposes: any legislation banning government employees from participating in prediction market trading should, by the same logic, also prohibit them from speaking with journalists.
the U.S. Department of Justice has filed charges against U.S. Army Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, accusing him of using classified intelligence to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the U.S. raid on Venezuela, resulting in illegal profits of over $400,000.According to the latest disclosure by CNN, Trump appears to have shifted his stance on the matter. Upon learning that the soldier had bet on Maduro's downfall, Trump compared the situation to baseball legend Pete Rose betting on his own team to win, downplaying the response. Trump stated: "It's like Rose betting on his own team to win. If he bet on his own team to lose, that would be bad, but he bet on them to win. I will look into it." Additionally, given Trump's support for Rose, at least several of Trump's allies have indicated that Trump should pardon the soldier. (CNN)
According to Business Insider, U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Major Gannon Van Dyke has been charged with allegedly using classified military information to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—netting over $400,000 in illegal profits. Notably, Van Dyke had previously attempted to open an account on rival platform Kalshi but was rejected due to failure to pass identity verification and KYC checks. Polymarket stated it proactively reported the suspicious trading activity to law enforcement authorities and has fully cooperated with the investigation. This case is regarded as the first major insider-trading criminal prosecution in the prediction market space, reigniting market concerns about insider-trading risks on prediction platforms.
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Channel, the probability of "Walsh confirmed as Fed Chair before May 15" on Polymarket has risen from 27% to 85%, surging 211% in the short term.The reason is that the U.S. Department of Justice is expected to drop the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Previously, Senator Thom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, stated that if Trump does not withdraw the criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Powell, he would block Walsh's nomination for Fed Chair from reaching a full Senate vote.Under the influence of the news that the DOJ will drop the criminal investigation into Powell, the market now expects a very high likelihood of Walsh being confirmed by the Senate as Fed Chair before Powell's term expires (May 15).The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets — seeing changes before prices are set.
on April 23, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit in Dane County against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, accusing these fintech and crypto platforms of facilitating illegal sports betting through event contracts. Josh Kaul is requesting the court to issue preliminary and permanent injunctions, declaring that the platforms' operations violate Wisconsin's gambling laws and constitute a public nuisance. The complaint states that repackaging wagers as event contracts does not change their fundamental nature, with approximately 90% of Kalshi's business coming from sports-related contracts, generating annualized revenue exceeding $1 billion. Robinhood and Coinbase are also implicated in the case, routing user orders to Kalshi's markets through distribution agreements. Regulators in Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee have also taken similar legal actions or issued cease-and-desist orders.
Polymarket posted on X platform, saying, "Last month, we released enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we discovered that a user was trading based on government classified information, we referred the matter to the Department of Justice and cooperated with their investigation. Polymarket has zero tolerance for insider trading, and today's arrest proves the system is effective."The arrest referred to by Polymarket involved a special forces soldier who participated in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and was taken into custody by U.S. federal authorities on Thursday. The soldier is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal from power. Sources say federal investigators believe that the commando placed over $33,000 in bets on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before President Trump announced Maduro's capture in January.For details on the insider trading related to the Maduro capture operation on Polymarket, please see When War is Settled Before the News is Out: How Prediction Markets "Priced In" Maduro's Capture 6 Days Early
According to CoinDesk, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit on April 24 against Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, accusing these platforms of operating unlicensed gambling businesses under the guise of “event contracts.” The complaint cites marketing language used by the platforms themselves—for instance, Kalshi’s claim to be “the first legal sports betting platform in the U.S.,” and Polymarket’s statement that users can “bet on the outcomes of future events”—to argue that such contracts constitute wagering under Wisconsin law. The state government further noted that the platforms’ business model—charging fees per transaction—is functionally identical to casinos’ commission-based revenue structure. At the heart of this case lies a jurisdictional dispute: whether prediction market contracts fall under federal regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or are subject to individual states’ gambling laws. Similar lawsuits have already been filed by multiple states, and this conflict is expected to ultimately be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court.
ABC News, citing sources, said that US federal authorities arrested a Special Forces soldier on Thursday involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The soldier allegedly made over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's ouster. Sources said federal investigators believe the soldier placed over $33,000 in bets on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before President Trump announced Maduro's capture in January. The series of bets yielded over $409,000 in profit, immediately triggering scrutiny within the prediction market and launching a months-long insider trading investigation.
Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has become embroiled in an insider trading controversy due to predictive trading centered on US President Donald Trump's related policies and statements. Data shows that from April 5th to April 8th alone, markets related to the situation in Iran generated approximately 413 million predictions, involving funds exceeding $100 million.Analysts point out that Trump's highly unpredictable decision-making style has significantly boosted activity in the prediction market. Topics such as whether he will take military action against Iran or push for a ceasefire have become high-frequency trading targets. Related trading volumes surged rapidly following his social media posts.Notably, Donald Trump Jr. was revealed to hold shares in Polymarket while also serving as an advisor to another prediction platform, Kalshi, sparking external questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data indicates that political predictions have become the second-largest category in prediction markets, trailing only sports. Despite the escalating controversy, the overall attitude of US regulators remains relatively lenient, driving the continuous expansion of this sector. (Fortune)
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have both announced plans to launch perpetual futures contracts. Polymarket posted a video on X on Tuesday stating it will list perpetual futures products tied to crypto tokens, U.S. equities, and commodities; Kalshi has a similar plan. Perpetual futures are crypto-native derivatives with no fixed expiration date. It remains unclear whether Polymarket will offer these products in the U.S. market, as such products face relatively strict regulatory restrictions in the United States.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Anthropic, developer of Claude, next funding round deadline." The current probability of completion before the end of June is temporarily quoted at 22%; the probability before the end of December is temporarily quoted at 81%.The contract rules for this event are: If the specified company publicly and formally announces the completion of its next funding round before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." Eligible announcements must clearly confirm the completion of the new funding round, which can be through official announcements from the specified company (e.g., press release) or its investors, regulatory filings, or consensus from credible media reports. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks are not eligible. If the specified company is unable to complete a new funding round due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by another entity, the market will be settled as "No." The primary settlement sources for this market will be official announcements from the specified company and official company documents, such as SEC filings; however, credible consensus reporting may also be used.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Magic advancing to the NBA playoffs" on Polymarket has dropped to 39%, down 30% in 24 hours. Yesterday, the Magic lost to the 76ers with a score of 97 to 109 and will compete with the Hornets tomorrow morning at 7:30 for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot. Additionally, Hornets star LaMelo Ball was fined $35,000 for pulling Adebayo during the game against the Heat and was assessed a Flagrant Foul 2, but did not receive a suspension. Furthermore, Ball was fined $25,000 for using profanity in a post-game interview, resulting in a total fine of $60,000.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that although Powell's term as Chair ends on May 15th, the probability on Polymarket of Powell stepping down as Fed Chair after his term expires (May 14th) is only 2%, indicating Powell is likely to continue serving as the Fed's interim Chair.The key to whether Powell can continue as Fed Chair after his term expires lies in whether Kevin Walsh, Trump's chosen successor, can secure Congressional confirmation at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on April 21st. Powell previously stated that if a successor is not confirmed by May, he will serve as interim Chair.Therefore, the market is indirectly betting that Walsh will struggle to gain Congressional approval by April 21st or even before May 15th. The reason is that North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis is obstructing this appointment, stating he will not advance any Fed nominee's process until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into Powell.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.