News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: RWA trading platform MSX Maitong has announced that it will open subscription for the third round of MSX Pre-IPO projects at 18:00 (UTC+8) on August 31, 2026. This round will exclusively feature two globally high-profile AI unicorns—Neuralink, the brain-computer interface leader under Elon Musk, and Anduril Industries, a top-tier AI defense technology unicorn in the United States.Previously, the second round of MSX Maitong Pre-IPO projects, featuring Polymarket, has opened for redemption, with subscription yields reaching 33.3%. The introduction of Neuralink and Anduril in this third round further expands the platform's Pre-IPO portfolio into cutting-edge technology assets.Users participating in this round of subscription are required to hold $MSX. Subscription quotas will be allocated based on users' effective holdings, with specific allocation tiers and participation rules subject to the information published on MSX's official platform.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Lorenzo Valente, Head of Digital Asset Research at investment firm ARK Invest, stated that Hyperliquid is in discussions with the CFTC and SEC to facilitate the offering of perpetual futures on its public chain by U.S.-regulated companies. He suggested that Hyperliquid acquire Gemini to position it as a U.S.-regulated HIP-3/4 deployer. He noted that Gemini's current market value is approximately $450 million, representing a decline of over 85% from its $3.3 billion valuation at the time of its 2025 IPO. Hyperliquid could obtain Gemini's entire U.S. regulatory infrastructure—including the NYDFS Trust Charter, DCM, DCO, FCM, MTLs, and Broker-dealer—for approximately $450 million.He further proposed that Hyperliquid could use approximately 7.9 million HYPE tokens from its community reserve, valued at around $550 million at $70 per token, to complete the acquisition at a premium of roughly 20% over Gemini's current market value. Following the transaction, Gemini would handle KYC, custody, fiat on/off ramps, brokerage, clearing, and compliance for the U.S. market, while Hyperliquid L1 would provide the underlying market infrastructure, liquidity, and on-chain settlement. He cited Polymarket's acquisition of QCEX as a similar precedent for re-entering the U.S. market, and stated that the core of this potential deal is not acquiring an exchange, but rather securing the regulatory bridge for HIP-3/4 to enter the U.S. market.
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in the Polymarket "OpenAI Astra Release Date" prediction market, the probability of OpenAI releasing Astra before September 15 has dropped to 42%, down 18% in 24 hours; the probability of a release before August 31 is currently at 10%, down 8% in 24 hours.If OpenAI officially releases Astra before the specified date in the title (Eastern Time), or releases a product confirmed to be the same model as the previously disclosed Astra and makes it available to the public, the market will settle as Yes; otherwise, it will settle as No.The model can be named Astra, Astra 1, GPT-6 Astra, or any other name, but it must be confirmed by OpenAI's official channels or credible media that it is indeed Astra. Models such as GPT-5.7 and GPT-6 will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model as Astra.A public beta or opening a waitlist counts as an official release; closed beta or private access does not. Settlement will primarily rely on official information from OpenAI, with consistent reports from credible media also considered.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead of the curve and seize the initiative.
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket event "Will the Fed hold interest rates steady in September?", an account (0xfbe66593e49c4e7a7180a2582f041158bfb800f8) that has earned over $160,000 in profit over the past month purchased $278,000 worth of shares betting the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, at an average entry price of 50.7¢, holding 389,715.1 shares.According to the settlement rules, this market will settle based on the interest rate change following the Fed's September 2026 FOMC meeting. If the rate adjustment magnitude does not fall within existing options, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points—for example, a 12.5 basis point rate cut or hike would be calculated as 25 basis points. If no relevant statement is released before the meeting concludes, the event will settle as "unchanged."The Fed's next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026. Previously, at its July meeting, the FOMC voted 9 to 3 to hold interest rates steady.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead of the curve and seize the initiative.
Odaily News: The meme coin "Niu Lai" was listed on Binance Alpha yesterday. After a brief pullback following the news-driven surge, it rebounded in the early hours of today, briefly surpassing a $40 million market cap and currently standing at $38.03 million. DeGods founder Frank has been steadily accumulating, with his current holdings exceeding $500,000 in "Niu Lai." He mentioned that the movie "Niu Lai" will soon be screened in the United States, which is actually a viewing party organized by Polymarket. Qwerty, the top address on the "Niu Lai" profit leaderboard, reduced some of its position yesterday afternoon and has not made any further moves to reduce or increase holdings since then.
Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket "OpenAI Astra Release Date" prediction market, the probability of OpenAI releasing Astra by August 31 has risen to 24%, up 8% in the past 24 hours; the probability of a release by September 15 is currently at 61%, up 6% in the past 24 hours.According to the settlement rules, if OpenAI releases Astra before the corresponding deadline—or releases a product confirmed to be the same model as Astra—and makes it publicly available, the market settles as "Yes." Public beta testing or opening a waitlist qualifies, while closed testing and private access do not count; the primary basis for settlement is official information from OpenAI.Previously, OpenAI disclosed that it would slow down the development of Astra until appropriate safety measures are established. However, OpenAI founder Sam Altman also stated that Astra is a powerful model and that the company is working to make it available to a broader range of users.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Odaily News According to reports, multiple prediction markets are converging on pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and nearly 1% probability of a rate cut. Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option. The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket is undergoing an organizational upgrade in preparation for the upcoming fall trading peak, bringing in several new executives, restructuring its marketing system, and strengthening its compliance team in preparation for U.S. market expansion. Polymarket recently hired Travis VanderZanden, founder of shared e-scooter company Bird and former Uber and Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer, responsible for the company's growth strategy and marketing system development. VanderZanden stated that the prediction market is at a critical stage of rapid development, and the company needs to further improve its management team to support long-term growth.This adjustment comes as Polymarket faces regulatory scrutiny. Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had launched an investigation into its business model, related to the platform's marketing activities and promotional partnership policies. Sources say Polymarket has restructured its marketing department, updated rules for promotional partners, and provided relevant training to employees, while also hiring consulting firm AlixPartners to oversee whether content published by partners complies with the new standards.Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to strengthen its compliance and risk management capabilities for its U.S. operations. The company's U.S. trading platform has added several new executives in regulatory and risk roles, including former Robinhood executive Megan McGrath as Chief Compliance Officer for the U.S. platform, former Coinbase executive Natalie Oblazny overseeing U.S. regulatory affairs, former FBI and Coinbase employee Shana Bautista as Head of Global Investigations and Intelligence, and former Nasdaq executive Paul Jordan as Chief Risk Officer for the U.S. platform.Polymarket's U.S. trading platform went live in May this year and operates independently from its international business. With the NFL new season kicking off in September and the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, the market expects a new wave of growth in prediction market trading activity.Previously, Polymarket had already become one of the representative platforms in the prediction market space and continues to seek expanded fundraising. According to reports, the company is currently seeking a new funding round at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. As institutional investors and professional traders gradually enter the prediction market, Polymarket is attempting to transform from a retail-facing, betting-style prediction platform into a more mature financial market infrastructure. (CNBC)
Odaily News: According to data from Gate's event contracts platform, in the event regarding "What price level will WTI crude oil reach in August 2026," the probability of crude oil touching $85 or above is as high as 69%, while the probabilities of touching below $75 and above $90 are 53% and 41% respectively, indicating an overall bullish market expectation.Meanwhile, Gate has launched the "Global Financial Duet" limited-time campaign, running from 18:00 on July 24 to 18:00 on August 28 (UTC+8). The campaign integrates Gate's stock section with Polymarket, covering earnings season and macroeconomic data hotspots. Users who complete stock or financial market prediction trades each week can earn up to 150 USDT in stock trading fee rebate vouchers and 150 USDT in event contract trial vouchers per week, while also participating in two independent leaderboards—"Stocks" and "Predictions"—with a weekly prize pool of up to 40,000 USDT to share, bringing the total prize pool to 200,000 USDT. Additionally, the campaign offers multiple extra benefits, including welcome trading gifts for new users, VIP 5+ registration rewards, and a shared hot topic calendar.
Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by December 31 stands at 21%, with related contract trading volume exceeding $5.5 million as of August 9. Galaxy Research had previously lowered its expectation for the bill's passage in 2026 from 50% to 30%. On August 8, the U.S. Senate filed a motion to invoke cloture on the motion to advance the bill, but no full chamber vote was held. Senators will return on September 14, and per procedural rules, the first cloture vote is scheduled for September 15. The CLARITY Act aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. Senate negotiations still involve three unresolved issues: ethics enforcement, illicit financial activity provisions, and stablecoin yield. The bill will need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in Polymarket's "When will the Strait of Hormuz resume normal navigation?" prediction market, a wallet with a 93% win rate (0xa52b785a5510117ac3ae03d75d029f89a36c9480) purchased positions worth $158,000 betting that navigation will not resume before August 15, with an average entry price of 98.6¢ and a total of 160,003.1 shares bought.According to US media reports, Oman has agreed to reach a framework agreement with Iran to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the agreement has not yet been officially announced, and whether the US will support it still depends on the final details.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino posted data revealing that over the past month, Polymarket's website traffic reached 43.1 million visits (according to Similarweb data), surpassing the combined total of FanDuel, DraftKings, and Kalshi, and has become one of the most visited fintech applications globally. Nick Tomaino believes that the core reason for Polymarket's growth is not marketing investment, but rather its value primarily as a "source of information," where users hope to better understand the real world through prediction markets. Polymarket currently dominates the on-chain prediction market sector; the transparency and global accessibility brought by the on-chain architecture are key to achieving the long-term goal of "better information and more truth." However, Polymarket's U.S. application is still in the early stages, but the product and business model are gradually maturing and beginning to enter an accelerated execution phase.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "WTI Crude Oil Price Hit in August" prediction event, the probability of WTI crude falling to $75/barrel rose to 77%, up 11% in 24 hours; the probability of falling to $70/barrel rose to 45%, up 12% in 24 hours.Earlier, oil prices were driven up by escalating tensions in the Middle East, but after Trump announced a halt to military action against Iran and indicated that the U.S. and Iran would enter a new round of negotiations, market concerns over supply disruptions began to ease, causing the risk premium on crude to quickly retreat. WTI crude prices have now fallen to around $80/barrel.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" has dropped to 6%, down 25% in the past 24 hours.This event will be settled on day 1 after the GRVT governance token goes live, based on whether its fully diluted valuation (FDV) is higher than the specified value in the title.If the FDV on day 1 after the GRVT token listing is higher than the specified value, the event settles as "Yes"; otherwise, it settles as "No".For the token listing, it must meet the conditions of being publicly transferable and tradeable. FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price."Day 1 after listing" is defined as 16:00 (ET) on the next calendar day after the listing date. The settlement price will reference the most liquid price source.Previously reported, Binance Futures has listed the GRVTUSDT perpetual contract with up to 10x leverage.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Polymarket has announced that, to enhance the manipulation resistance of its cryptocurrency up/down prediction markets, affected markets will transition from single price snapshot settlement to Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) settlement starting from 00:00 UTC on August 7. Specifically, the 5-minute markets will adopt a 30-second TWAP, while the 15-minute and 4-hour markets will adopt a 60-second TWAP.Additionally, the platform will provide a total of $1 million in liquidity rewards for the relevant markets throughout August. Chainlink's TWAP testnet data feed is now live, with the mainnet data feed and Polymarket's Real-Time Data Streams (RTDS) scheduled to go live on August 4, 2026.
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
as the esports event prediction market continues to heat up, the League of Legends LCK (Legends Group Round 3-4) is featuring a marquee matchup: T1 will face KT Rolster at 18:00 (UTC+8) on July 29. According to the latest data from the Gate prediction market, T1 currently holds a support rate of approximately 79%, while KT Rolster stands at around 22%. The Gate prediction market closely follows global sports and esports hotspots, continuously enriching trading scenarios to deliver an efficient and seamless one-stop prediction experience for users.Gate is launching the "Esports Peak Trading Season" from July 20, 16:00 to August 10, 16:00 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. After registering, users who participate in designated esports event prediction trades on the Gate prediction market can unlock newcomer benefits, weekly task rewards, and compete on the esports prediction trading leaderboard. As the first centralized exchange to integrate with Polymarket, Gate has become a key gateway for users to engage with prediction markets. Users can access Gate Polymarket via the Alpha section on the Gate App homepage, using USDT in their accounts to conveniently participate in prediction market trades for popular esports events and championship outcomes. Users can also leverage the "Smart Money" feature to track the positions and market judgments of high-win-rate traders, gaining additional reference for esports event predictions. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of its prediction market, offering users a diversified prediction trading experience covering popular esports events and other major happenings.
on Polymarket, Apple has around a 79% probability of becoming the world's most valuable company by the end of July, while Nvidia's probability has dropped to approximately 22%. The cumulative trading volume for this prediction market is about $4.7 million. At Tuesday's close, Apple's market cap was approximately $4.995 trillion, and Nvidia's market cap stood at about $4.768 trillion, giving Apple a lead of roughly $227 billion. This contract will be settled based on the market caps of the two companies at the close of trading on July 31. Apple is scheduled to release its third fiscal quarter earnings on July 30 at 5 PM Eastern Time. Nvidia's latest fiscal quarter saw data center revenue grow by 75% to $62.3 billion.
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in the Polymarket event "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by 25 basis points after the July meeting?", a new account (0x0c689c8e78588fd3d02e56a6e787e7f9e9b09e76) purchased $196,000 worth of shares predicting the Federal Reserve will not raise rates by 25 basis points after the July meeting, with an entry price of 72.5¢.This event will determine the adjustment range of the federal funds target rate upper bound compared to before the meeting, based on the statement released by the Federal Reserve after the July FOMC meeting.If the rate adjustment range does not correspond to an existing option, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points for settlement. For example, a rate cut or hike of 12.5 basis points will be calculated as 25 basis points.Settlement is based on the official FOMC meeting statement and federal funds target rate data released by the Federal Reserve. If no relevant statement is released before the next scheduled meeting concludes, the event will be settled as "No Change."The Federal Reserve’s July FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.