News linked to both this project and an event.
Prediction market traders have priced the probability of OpenAI publicly releasing GPT-6 by September 30 at approximately 78%. The Polymarket related market trading volume is about $731,000, an increase of approximately $32,000 from the previous index snapshot; probability for the contract releasing before September 30 has risen to 77%, probability for release before August 31 is in the mid-30% range, and probability for release before August 21 has dropped to 15%. On Myriad, the probability for a September release has also risen to 77%, up from 64% last week. As of July 27, OpenAI has not yet publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a release date. Its current flagship general-purpose model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was publicly released on July 9. OpenAI previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation. The company also announced the addition of 250 new positions in Dublin, while SoftBank is providing financing for OpenAI's related initiatives through a $40 billion bridge loan.
the long-awaited digital asset regulatory bill, the CLARITY Act, has hit a snag in its advancement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate is not expected to pass the bill before the August recess.The CLARITY Act aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, promoting the integration of blockchain and crypto assets into the mainstream financial system. Previously, the bill had undergone multiple rounds of negotiations between the crypto industry and opposing forces, such as the banking sector, and was once considered close to passage.However, recent controversy surrounding conflicts of interest related to President Donald Trump and his family's involvement in crypto projects has emerged as a new obstacle. Democrats are demanding the inclusion of ethical clauses in the bill that would restrict government officials from profiting from crypto transactions, a stance Republicans have previously opposed. Prediction market data indicates that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has significantly declined. Polymarket data shows that as of Friday, the probability stood at approximately 37%, well below the over 80% level seen earlier this spring.Crypto policy organizations and industry insiders believe the current delay is largely influenced by the political dynamics of the U.S. midterm elections. Ron Hammond, Head of Policy and Advocacy at Wintermute, stated that the votes to support the bill may still exist, but "election politics are louder." He suggested that a window for advancing the bill could still emerge after the November elections.Analysts point out that if Congress needs to prioritize major issues such as government funding and national defense before the end of its current term, the CLARITY Act could be further marginalized. As the U.S. political landscape may shift following the midterm elections, the outlook for crypto regulatory legislation remains highly uncertain. (Fortune)
OdailyOdailyOdaily News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same election. The Commission also noted that knowingly voting without being eligible could constitute a Class I felony. The Commission unanimously approved a legal memorandum regarding prediction markets during a meeting on July 9, and issued a statewide notice on Tuesday. The restrictions apply only to the corresponding election and do not automatically affect a trader's voting eligibility in other unrelated elections. Benjamin Freeman, Head of Election Business at Kalshi, stated that the guidance is "clearly unconstitutional and unlawful," adding that the company has hundreds of thousands of users in Wisconsin alone. Robert DeNault, Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel at Kalshi, said that election markets certified by the CFTC and offered on federally regulated exchanges are legal. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated that the company would respond to the Commission's claims through appropriate legal proceedings. Both companies argue that their products are tradable financial contracts, not gambling.
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that in the Polymarket prediction event "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire," the probability for August 14 is currently 34%, down 1% in a week; the probability for August 31 is currently 51%, down 3% in a week.According to the resolution rules, if at any point between the market creation and the specified deadline (Eastern Time 23:59), there begins a consecutive 14-day period during which the US does not conduct qualifying military actions against Iran, the market will resolve to "Yes." Qualifying military actions refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks initiated by the US that directly strike targets within Iranian territory.It is reported that the US military has conducted strikes against Iranian military targets for the 13th consecutive night, and Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal put forward by Trump. Neither side has yet signaled de-escalation in the short term. However, according to sources close to the matter, Trump has become increasingly frustrated with the protracted war, while his advisors worry that the conflict has driven up prices, hurt approval ratings, and resulted in the deaths of over a dozen US soldiers. This continues to drain the political capital of the Trump administration and could further impact the Republican Party's prospects in the midterm elections.Join the PPP Signal Push Community, stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "the next Claude Opus model will be released on July 23, 2026" is currently at 61%, up 51% in 24 hours; additionally, the probability of "release before July 24" is at 9%; the probability of "release before July 25" is at 5%;This event will be settled based on the date (Eastern Time) when Anthropic's next Claude Opus model becomes available to the public. Only models explicitly named "Opus" by Anthropic are valid, and they must be accessible to the public (including public beta testing or open waitlist). Other models such as Sonnet and Haiku are not counted. The final settlement will primarily rely on official Anthropic information.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
According to Reuters, prediction market platform Polymarket announced it will launch a legal challenge against the decision by the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) to block its website. ANJ unilaterally blocked access to Polymarket in France last week, citing "potential for significant gambling losses for users" and "risk of manipulation of platform bets." Polymarket expressed disappointment over this and stated it would seek relief through French legal procedures. Previously, the Spanish government temporarily banned Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi in May this year, and US derivatives regulators also released a new regulatory draft targeting the prediction market industry in June, indicating a clear trend of tightening global regulation.
Institutional crypto trading platform Talos has integrated prediction market operator Kalshi, allowing some clients to trade Kalshi's event contracts and crypto perpetual contracts through existing digital asset trading infrastructure without needing a separate connection. Talos will provide algorithmic order types such as Iceberg, TWAP, and POV, as well as multi-leg execution for perpetual-to-perpetual and perpetual-to-spot spread trades. Institutional clients can also execute block trades of Kalshi contracts through its RFQ platform using participating OTC liquidity providers. Talos plans to expand its trading software to brokers and trading platforms later this year, enabling them to offer Kalshi event contracts directly to their clients upon authorization, and to launch a unified prediction market data feed that standardizes events, trades, order books, open interest, and implied probabilities across multiple platforms. A CoinGecko report shows that the prediction market recorded a notional trading volume of $113.8 billion in Q2, a 48.7% quarter-over-quarter increase; notional trading volume in June reached $52.8 billion, setting a new monthly record. Kalshi's market share rose from 42.4% in Q1 to 58.9%, while Polymarket's fell from 35.8% to 30.2%.
Paradis Labs stated on platform X that it is currently difficult to determine whether semiconductor stocks have bottomed out. Most AI infrastructure-related stocks rose on the day, with SIVE, AEHR, and IQE gaining over 20%, and SNDK, MU, and AAOI rising over 10%.Paradis Labs noted that regardless of today's returns, gaining more clarity over the coming weeks will be more important: On July 22, GOOGL will release its Q2 earnings, which will serve as the first formal indicator of annual capital expenditure for approximately $750 billion in hyperscale cloud providers; On July 22-23, AMD will hold the Advancing AI event, where wafer foundry loading, advanced packaging, and laser-type demand roadmaps through 2027 can be observed; On July 23, INTC will report Q2 earnings, with 18A yield and foundry commitments potentially being major variables, while also providing insights into U.S. domestic manufacturing and packaging momentum; On July 23, IBM will report Q2 earnings, and with its market cap already down ~25%, the market's reaction to any guidance shortfall is worth watching; On July 24, 10% global tariffs expire, and new tariffs are expected to be imposed on dozens of countries, which could act as a stagflationary factor and influence the Fed's rate hike narrative; On July 27, Kimi K3's complete weights will be released; On July 28-29, the FOMC meeting will convene, with experts and Polymarket expecting rates to remain unchanged. It is noteworthy that a rate hike or a signal of a rate hike would represent the first true institutional shift for the AI trade; On July 29-30, META, MSFT, and AMZN will report earnings, providing more capital expenditure data; On July 30, the U.S. will release June core PCE.Paradis Labs also indicated that a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could be reached at any time. A 10-day proposal is currently on the table, while attacks continue. A formally confirmed ceasefire would be beneficial for oil prices and bullish for semiconductor stocks. The above is a high-level timeline of the key upcoming events, all of which will impact semiconductor stocks to varying degrees. When hyperscale cloud providers report earnings, AI capital expenditure will be the most important factor.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "CLARITY Bill Signed into Law in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 42%, up 5% in 24 hours and 10% in a week.The market rules are as follows: If the "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act of 2025" (HR3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "YES"; otherwise, it will resolve to "NO". The primary sources of information are official announcements from the U.S. Congress website and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.White House Crypto Advisor Patrick Witt has officially stated today that he will remain in Washington to push for the passage of the CLARITY Act. Previously, there were reports that he would leave before the Senate vote, but that news has now been overturned.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
: On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing before August 31 has risen to 21%, up from a low of 11% on Monday morning. The probability of a closure before September 30 once rose to 26%. The Yemeni Houthi group, Ansar Allah, has announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, stating that the operation is based on the principle of "an eye for an eye" and aims to disrupt the flow of Saudi crude oil exports. The relevant passage handles the transit of over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil. The outcome of this prediction contract will be determined based on maritime trade flow data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) platform, PortWatch. If the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is equal to or less than 10 on any day between the contract's creation and its expiration date, the contract will be resolved as "Yes."
according to the latest in-depth report by U.Today, as the prediction market continues to heat up, sports events are becoming a key engine driving industry growth. As the world's first centralized exchange to integrate Polymarket, Gate Polymarket significantly lowers the barrier to user participation by offering a trading experience with no wallet, no cross-chain, and no gas fees. Users can directly use USDT from their Gate accounts to make predictions without the need for complex on-chain operations. Currently, Gate Polymarket has become one of the largest traffic gateways for Polymarket. As of July 16, its cumulative trading volume has exceeded $622 million. On July 6, its weekly trading volume surpassed $100 million, and it ranks first in Polymarket's daily, weekly, and monthly trading volume across all channels.The report points out that the 2026 World Cup is becoming one of the key catalysts driving the rapid growth of the prediction market. The World Cup Hub, built around the event, integrates match schedules, standings, real-time scores, match alerts, historical data, and prediction trading. Sports predictions continue to attract a large number of users, further boosting Gate Polymarket’s activity and market liquidity.U.Today believes that Gate has not only lowered the barrier to entry for the prediction market but also further refined the product experience. It has launched innovative features such as a dual-mode trading interface, AI event analysis, smart money tracking, real-time fund flow alerts, and event contracts, helping users discover market opportunities more efficiently. By combining the convenient experience of a centralized exchange with the deep integration of Polymarket’s decentralized prediction market, Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of the prediction market and driving on-chain prediction markets toward a more open, efficient, and mainstream stage of development.
Odaily, July 20 - According to official sources, Gate has launched the Esports Peak Trading Season from 16:00 on July 20 to 16:00 on August 10 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. During the event, users who register and participate in designated prediction trading for esports events in the Gate Polymarket esports section can enjoy newcomer benefits, weekly trading tasks, and the prediction trading leaderboard to share generous rewards. After the event, the top 100 users by cumulative prediction trading volume who meet the corresponding trading volume requirements can also share a 50,000 USDT leaderboard reward, with the 1st place winner eligible to receive up to 10,000 USDT. Currently, the Gate Prediction Market has launched prediction markets for popular events such as the 2026 KeSPA Cup "League of Legends" Chevor DRX vs. KT team, and more exciting events can be found on the platform for participation.According to data from Polymarket Builders, the Gate Prediction Market ranked first among Polymarket channels in single-day trading volume on July 19, and has also maintained a leading position in cumulative trading volume over the past week and month, ranking first among Polymarket channels. As the first centralized trading platform to integrate Polymarket, Gate has become a key entry point for users to participate in prediction markets. Users can enter Gate Polymarket via the Alpha section on the Gate App homepage and use USDT in their accounts to conveniently trade in prediction markets for popular esports events and championship outcomes. Users can also leverage the "Smart Money" feature to track the positions and market judgments of high-win-rate traders, gaining more reference for esports event predictions. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of its prediction market, providing users with prediction trading experiences covering diverse events such as popular esports competitions.
Odaily Odaily News Polymarket traders pushed the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year to 35% on July 17, recovering from a low of 24% on July 13. The contract had approached 74% in May, before falling to 48% in June as negotiations dragged on. Senate Republicans plan to release the final text of the CLARITY Act after meeting with US President Donald Trump. Senator Bernie Moreno said the updated text will be released after the meeting, with the target for Senate floor consideration set for the week of July 20. The bill needs 60 votes in the Senate to pass. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, requiring at least 7 Democratic votes in support. Democratic negotiators say the draft to be submitted to the chamber is not the version they agreed to. The dispute centers on ethics clauses involving Trump's business interests in the crypto industry.
: Prediction market platform predict.fun has announced that all Up/Down markets now feature a Maker order rebate mechanism. Users who complete trades via limit orders can receive a 25% rebate on Maker fees.Compared to Polymarket, predict.fun's Maker rebate offers two key advantages that are more direct: a higher rebate rate, and real-time settlement immediately after the trade, without waiting for finalization.For high-frequency traders, professional market makers, and users who frequently employ limit orders, real-time rebates allow for faster capital release, reducing the continuous impact of fees on trading profits. The higher rebate rate also means that as trading frequency and volume increase, the actual cost savings become more significant.This mechanism now covers all Up/Down markets on predict.fun. Users do not need to register or apply separately; rebates for qualifying orders will be automatically credited to the account upon execution.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a potential insider trading incident involving the prediction market platform Kalshi. A staff member allegedly responsible for operating President Trump's teleprompter is accused of placing bets on related prediction event contracts.According to reports, this individual may have used early access to information about Trump's public remarks to wager on the Kalshi platform regarding whether Trump's related statements would be released or contain specific phrasing. Currently, the CFTC is investigating whether the relevant trades involved the use of non-public information and whether they violated prediction market trading rules.This investigation has once again raised market concerns about the risk of insider trading in prediction markets. As trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow rapidly, prediction contracts involving political, economic, and public events are increasingly coming under regulatory scrutiny. (CNBC)
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a market for "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Currently, the probability for July 18 stands at 5%; for July 24, it is 15%; for July 31, it is 23%; for August 14, it is 43%; and for August 31, it is 54%.The settlement rules for this event are as follows: If the US takes no military action against Iran between the market creation and 11:59 PM on the specified end date, this market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." The first day of this 14-day period will be the calendar date (Eastern Time) of the most recent qualifying military action that occurs. This period lasts until 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action during this period occurs on or before the specified end date, the market will be considered "Yes."So-called "qualifying military actions" refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes initiated by the US directly targeting Iran. Airstrikes may include the use of bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and aerial drones launched from the air. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.Qualifying military actions include: munitions that are destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small arms fire; ground invasions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery; howitzer, cannon, mortar, and rocket artillery (e.g., Multiple Launch Rocket Systems); small-scale surface-to-surface strikes, including short-range cruise missiles, close-air support drones, and anti-tank missile attacks; any threats, authorizations, or declarations of force that have not yet been acted upon.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
: Celestia Labs has announced the acquisition of Sovereign Labs, a developer of high-performance blockchain frameworks. Since 2021, Sovereign Labs has been deeply involved in the Celestia ecosystem, with its framework providing underlying support for projects such as the cross-chain bridge Relay Protocol and the high-performance perpetual contract trading platform Bullet. Following this acquisition, Celestia Labs' technical capabilities will extend from Layer 1 to the execution and application layers, positioning it as a full-stack custom blockchain development partner for enterprises. As projects like Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Robinhood have chosen to build their own chains, enterprise demand for full-stack blockchain infrastructure is growing.
Odaily, Polymarket-based DeFi startup Gondor has announced the launch of Gondor v1, claiming it will be the first margin account product for Polymarket. The version is expected to go live publicly in September.Gondor v1 will allow users to manage cross-margining across their entire Polymarket portfolio, using the full portfolio as collateral for loans. Users can then use the credit line to purchase more prediction market shares, achieving higher capital efficiency and leverage operations.This marks an expansion from the beta version Gondor launched seven months ago. The previous product primarily allowed users to take out loans against individual Polymarket positions, while v1 expands the collateral scope to the entire portfolio.Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi typically operate on a full collateral model, requiring users to deposit the entire risk amount upfront and lock up funds until the event is settled. Gondor aims to unlock this locked capital through portfolio margining and lending mechanisms, allowing users to gain additional liquidity and continue placing bets without immediately selling their positions.
Gate Predictions Market has officially launched a real-time alert feature. By monitoring large buy and sell orders in the market in real-time, it helps users quickly gain insights into capital flows, shifts in market sentiment, and potential trading opportunities, further enhancing the efficiency of event trading decisions. Users can experience this feature after upgrading the Gate App to version v8.27.0. Without needing to check event order books one by one, they can centrally grasp major capital movements in the market through the "Alerts" list. Additionally, the feature supports filtering by dimensions such as buy/sell direction, transaction amount thresholds, and event categories. It also displays core information including trading users, event markets, trading direction, and transaction amounts, and allows users to customize alert subscriptions to receive in-app notifications immediately when qualifying large transactions occur.This feature launch enhances Gate Predictions Market's data analysis and strategy assistance capabilities, working in conjunction with the previously introduced "Smart Money" feature. Users can not only track capital movements in real-time but also combine this with the historical trading, holdings, and profit performance of top traders to obtain more valuable market references. As the first centralized exchange to integrate with Polymarket, Gate continuously enriches its predictions market product suite and has simultaneously launched World Cup-themed activities. The "World Cup Prediction King Tournament" offers a total prize pool of 100,000 USDT, while the "World Cup Daily Featured Events" activity has a prize pool of 50,000 USDT, aiming to enhance user participation experience and strive to build a professional predictions market platform that integrates market discovery, strategy analysis, and trading participation.
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)