News linked to both this project and an event.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, for the prediction event "Anthropic's highest valuation this year," the probability of Anthropic reaching a $1.5 trillion valuation by the end of 2026 has risen to 78%, up 47% in 24 hours; the probability of reaching $2 trillion has risen to 37%, up 19% in 24 hours.On June 1, Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the U.S. SEC, officially initiating its IPO process in the United States. Recently, research firm SemiAnalysis released a report stating that Anthropic is expected to achieve $1 billion in GAAP operating profit in the third quarter of 2026, with an operating profit margin of 6%.Join the PPP Signal Push Community, stay one step ahead, and seize the opportunity.https://polymarket.com/zh/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31
the official interface shows Polymarket has launched a Perp trading feature. It currently supports 10 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, as well as Gold, Silver, SP500, NAS100, WTIOIL, and SPCX, with up to 20x leverage available.
Polymarket has integrated Spark, a Bitcoin Layer 2 payment protocol, allowing users to make instant deposits via the Bitcoin Lightning Network.According to the report, Spark will provide underlying payment infrastructure for Polymarket, enabling users to deposit directly with BTC, with funds arriving in seconds. Compared to traditional on-chain Bitcoin transfers, which take 30 minutes to 1 hour for confirmation, this offers faster speed, lower costs, and greater privacy. This integration is also part of Polymarket's ongoing efforts to enhance the Bitcoin payment experience, following its earlier move to support Bitcoin deposits. (Digital Assets)
crypto KOL Ansem stated on X platform that BullpenFi is a one-stop trading terminal he co-founded. The platform supports trading Solana chain Meme coins, Hyperliquid perpetual contracts, Polymarket prediction markets, and stocks, and also supports trading in USD via wire transfer, ACH, or cryptocurrency, allowing users to complete registration with one click.
according to official sources, the self-custody Web3 wallet BM Wallet has launched its prediction market feature. Users can now directly participate in real-world event predictions within the wallet, settling entirely with stablecoins. Assets never need to be withdrawn, and private keys remain under the user's control at all times. This feature integrates the prediction market Polymarket, tapping into its deep liquidity. The initial phase centers on the World Cup, while also covering sectors such as cryptocurrency and politics. It is currently available in designated regions.
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's probability of "GPT-5.6 to be released to the public on July 7" has risen to 64%, up 26% in 24 hours.The rules state that a model explicitly named "GPT-5.6," or a model officially recognized as the direct successor to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.), will meet the settlement conditions. Task-specific models like GPT-Codex and Transcribe, cost-optimized versions such as Nano and Mini, and the o-series reasoning models are all included in this market. However, GPT-6 or other next-generation flagship models are not counted.Additionally, qualified models must be open to the public, including public beta or open waitlists; closed testing or private access only will not meet the requirements. The final settlement will primarily be based on OpenAI's official announcements and public information on its official website, and will be verified with mainstream media reports.On June 27, OpenAI launched the next-generation GPT-5.6 series of models, currently offering a limited preview to a select group of partners.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
investigative journalist Whitney Webb has published a series of articles on the origins and ambitions of Polymarket, questioning its official founding narrative.Whitney Webb stated that Polymarket's official claim that "Shayne Coplan founded the company alone in 2020, starting it in a bathroom" is not true. She believes that Polymarket's origins can be traced back to an earlier company, TokenBnk, and that it is linked to a crypto company founded by the nephew and niece of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Webb also stated that Polymarket is essentially a product of Peter Thiel and his team's attempt to revive the Pentagon's early controversial project, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM). This project was previously cancelled due to controversy, and Polymarket can be seen as its "privatized rebirth."
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 being restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 97%, up 71% in 24 hours.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to Claude Fable 5 just days after its release on June 9.The latest update indicates that Anthropic has received notification that the US Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Access rights will begin to be restored.Odaily Seer Channel continues to focus on prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, the U.S. "Clarity Act," although having passed a bipartisan 15:9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee, still faces significant hurdles in the subsequent legislative process. Political uncertainty may exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is considered a core legislative framework for the U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies pointed out that passage would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, primarily due to disputes over ethical clauses, anti-money-laundering reviews, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts note that with approximately only 20 legislative days remaining before Congress adjourns in August, it must complete the reconciliation of House and Senate versions, procedural votes, and submission to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it may be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if delayed, it could suppress institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue affecting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulations gradually clarify, intensified competition in the stablecoin space could become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)
The PPP prediction market tool monitors that in the Polymarket "2026 World Cup Round of 32 Netherlands vs. Morocco" prediction event, a smart money address (0x0c787cc2962ee6464414da592b892c3886e077f1) with total profits exceeding $229,000 purchased $116,000 on the Netherlands defeating Morocco. The average entry price was 43¢, with 274,653.6 shares bought, currently showing an unrealized loss of $1,373.The Round of 32 match between the uncrowned kings of the Netherlands and Africa Cup of Nations champions Morocco will kick off on June 30 at 9:00 AM Beijing time. Morocco's current FIFA ranking has just risen to 6th, one spot ahead of the Netherlands. In this World Cup, the Netherlands is known as the "strong offense, weak defense Tulips," while Morocco is the "upgraded Atlas Lions," making this match full of suspense.The Odaily Seer channel continues to focus on the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.
Odaily Odaily reporter: Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has urged his subordinates to explore partnerships with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Meanwhile, Meta is developing a similar prediction market application called Arena.Executives said that Arena is currently in internal testing and may not be released in the future. The application will rely on points similar to those in video games, rather than accepting real money bets. Meta aims to attract at least 100 million monthly active users for the application and plans to eventually integrate some of Arena's features into Facebook and Messenger. (Reuters)
According to market sources: Prediction market platform Polymarket’s annualized revenue has surpassed $1 billion, with daily trading volume soaring from $50 million to $200 million. (Sina Finance)
data released by a16z crypto shows prediction market trading volume has set a new all-time high for the third consecutive week. Last week, total market trading volume reached $14.4 billion for the first time, a significant increase from approximately $5–6 billion at the beginning of the year. The previous peak of around $10 billion was set just a week prior. Additionally, open interest rose to $1.6 billion, hitting a new record for the third straight week, indicating that the pace of new position opening continues to outpace closing, resulting in ever-expanding capital exposure. Notably, growth in non-sports markets—covering areas such as macroeconomics and unexpected events—has been particularly pronounced. Last week, combined trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $3.6 billion, already surpassing the total volume of all prediction market categories last year.
Polymarket-backed AI data analysis platform Polysights announced the completion of a $1.5 million Pre-Seed funding round, with participation from YZi Labs, Maven11, Varys Capital, Contribution Capital, and Edge Ventures. The platform is currently in its Beta stage, and the new funds will support its use of AI technology to detect wallet clustering behavior, abnormal market fluctuations, and potential insider trading signs, providing data analysis support for traders, research institutions, and institutional investors (CNBC).
The Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event titled “What clauses will the US-Iran diplomatic agreement contain before December 31, 2026.”Iran Reconstruction Funding: Whether a non-Iranian-led mechanism for Iran's reconstruction or economic development funding will be established;Dilution of Iran's Uranium: Whether Iran will be required to dilute or downgrade enriched uranium under its control;Uranium Enrichment % Cap: Whether a cap on uranium enrichment purity lasting more than one year will be set;≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap: Whether a cap on uranium enrichment at low or below purity levels lasting more than one year will be set;Enriched Uranium Surrender: Whether Iran will be required to transfer part or all of its enriched uranium to non-Iranian entities;1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium: Whether a comprehensive suspension of uranium enrichment activities lasting more than one year will be implemented.According to the settlement rules, this event will be based on the official text of the formal written diplomatic document ultimately signed or formally approved by both sides. Currently, US-Iran negotiations are undergoing intensive communication around ceasefire lines, asset unfreezing, and the rules of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The launch of this series of prediction events provides the financial market with an intuitive and detailed indicator for observing the long-term trajectory of geopolitical risks.The Odaily Seer Channel continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event for the “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026.”From the perspective of the interest rate path, the market is currently pricing in two distinctly different macro narratives. One view holds that the U.S. economy will enter a growth slowdown cycle in 2026, with the Fed maintaining a wait-and-see stance or even resuming rate cuts. The other view argues that if inflation reemerges or long-term inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed could be forced to restart its rate hiking cycle. Therefore, the high probability attached to “3 to 4 rate hikes” essentially reflects the market’s reassessment of inflation stickiness and economic resilience over the next year, rather than a consensus on a single path.Bank of America has already shifted to a more hawkish interest rate path forecast. BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2026, totaling 75 basis points for the year, pushing the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This represents a significant upward revision from its previous outlook of “rates unchanged for the year,” primarily based on the still-resilient U.S. labor market, the bumpy progress of disinflation, and the possibility that the Fed’s policy reaction function under new Chair Kevin Warsh could be more hawkish. In comparison, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to start hiking in September, but with a cumulative annual increase of 50 basis points, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are reassessing the upside risks to U.S. interest rates in 2026.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
the U.S. CFTC on Tuesday sued Kentucky, attempting to prevent the state from regulating prediction market platforms as illegal sports betting and gambling operations, further establishing federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.Previously, Kentucky had last week sued platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed illegal sports betting and gambling businesses within the state.In its complaint filed with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, the CFTC stated that Kentucky’s attempt to shut down federally regulated designated contract markets interferes with the federal regulatory system established by Congress for the national swaps market. The agency claims "exclusive jurisdiction" over event contracts and prediction market products.Kentucky has become the ninth state that the CFTC has sued in the prediction market regulatory dispute, indicating that the conflict between federal derivatives regulation and state-level gambling oversight continues to escalate.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket "Arcium FDV Above $300M One Day After Launch" probability has risen to 93%, up 58% in 24 hours.According to the rules, if the fully diluted valuation of Arcium's officially issued token exceeds the target value at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the day after its launch, the event will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No."FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. Only tokens officially issued by Arcium that are publicly tradable are valid. Stablecoins, Meme coins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic assets are excluded from the calculation. If Arcium has not issued a token by 23:59 Eastern Time on December 31, 2027, the event will be settled as "No."Previous news: Binance Futures will list the ARXUSDT perpetual contract.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, spotting changes before prices are set.
: Polymarket has been appointed as the exclusive predictive market partner for the German Football Bundesliga in the US market.Polymarket stated that official event prediction contracts related to the Bundesliga and its clubs are now live, allowing users to engage in prediction trading on related matches and events. (The Block)