News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News Polymarket announced in a post that it will launch a Perpetual Contracts (Perps) feature, allowing users to participate in prediction market trading with leverage on the platform in the future. Early access registration is now open.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours.The contract rules for this event are: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch publishes data showing that the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") transiting the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market creation date and May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.It is reported that US Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with Iran. US President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan. Trump said they will negotiate, and if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides could reach a "fair deal" and emphasized that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. He defended potential military action against Iran, saying there was no other choice, and stated that the final cleanup work would be completed.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Channel, a new market has been launched on Polymarket: "Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz to 'Trump Strait' by May 31st?" The current probability for "Yes" is temporarily reported at 6%, having dropped 31% in the past 24 hours. The total betting volume for this event currently exceeds $47,000.The contract rules for this event are as follows: The market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly announces that the United States will formally refer to the Strait of Hormuz as "Trump Strait" or "Trump Straits" or any equivalent name containing "Trump" by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on May 31, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official communications from Donald Trump, but consensus from credible reporting may also be used.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31st?" The current probability is 32%, up 16% in 24 hours.The contract rules for this event are: If U.S. President Donald Trump visits Pakistan before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on May 31, 2026, the market outcome will be "YES"; otherwise, it will be "NO". "Visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the land or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether Trump enters Pakistani airspace during the market timeframe does not affect the affirmative outcome. The primary sources of market information are official U.S. government information, Trump's official information, or verified social media account posts, but consensus from other credible reports will also be referenced.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report stating that prediction market trading volume is expected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2025 to approximately $100 billion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 80%. Trading volume is projected to reach $24 billion in 2026, while Polymarket and Kalshi combined have already generated $60 billion in trading volume year-to-date. The report identifies three core drivers of this growth: increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level, blockchain infrastructure enabling global liquidity, and integration with mainstream trading platforms. Industry revenue is expected to rise from approximately $400 million in 2025 to about $10.8 billion in 2030. Distribution capability is viewed as a key competitive barrier. Robinhood has achieved an annualized revenue run-rate of $350 million from prediction markets and is advancing its exchange infrastructure development; Coinbase, meanwhile, offers nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts via the Kalshi platform. Bernstein maintains an “Outperform” rating on both companies.
According to Polymarket’s prediction market page, the current probability of SpaceX’s IPO closing market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion stands at approximately 47%, making it the highest-probability option. The next most likely ranges are $1.8–2 trillion (18%), $1.6–1.8 trillion (13.7%), and $1.4–1.6 trillion (7.8%). Bitget launched its U.S. stock IPO subscription service, IPO Prime, on April 10, with initial support for stablecoin-based subscriptions for SpaceX, referencing an estimated valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion. Additionally, Bitget will distribute two rounds of preSPAX airdrops to VIP users: the first round of 760 preSPAX tokens will be distributed tomorrow, and the second round of 190 preSPAX tokens will be distributed on April 20.