News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy said this morning at a CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting that trade.xyz and Hyperliquid are having a tangible impact on the U.S. market. trade.xyz, a leading market builder on the Hyperliquid chain, focuses on perpetual contracts for equities, commodities, and pre-IPO assets, and its trading volume already accounts for a significant share of Hyperliquid's activity. Terry Duffy has previously voiced concerns on multiple occasions regarding leverage and regulatory issues associated with such offshore platforms. Additionally, Terry Duffy clashed with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and Kalshi Chief Operating Officer Luana Lopes Lara over prediction market regulation. Duffy noted that certain prediction market contracts carry manipulation risks, particularly those listed via self-certification. He pointed out that contracts tied to the content of the President's State of the Union address and the timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's departure from office may be susceptible to manipulation, adding that this is detrimental to the entire industry.
According to The Block, at a meeting of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee, CME CEO Terrence Duffy publicly addressed the risks of manipulation in prediction market contracts, stating that "there are indeed people manipulating these contracts, which is extremely harmful to the industry," and expressing concern over the potential manipulation risks associated with numerous self-certified contracts, as well as those related to Trump's State of the Union address and Maduro's removal from office. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig promptly interrupted and rebutted this, noting that all the aforementioned contracts operate overseas and are not issues for the U.S. market. Subsequently, Kalshi COO Luana Lopes Lara challenged CME by asking whether it had also faced manipulation issues, leading to a heated exchange between both parties. Currently, the dispute over regulatory jurisdiction for prediction markets continues to escalate, with the CFTC asserting "exclusive jurisdiction" and having already filed lawsuits against several states, while pledging to advance revisions to consumer protection rules; meanwhile, some members of Congress have introduced legislation aimed at banning the listing and trading of prediction contracts tied to sports or gambling.
Odaily News CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy, the operator of the world's largest futures exchange, and Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, clashed verbally during a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) roundtable in Washington. Duffy questioned whether prediction markets face the same regulatory scrutiny as established exchanges and noted that certain contracts could be subject to manipulation.Terry Duffy stated that CME Group is not a "barker at the circus" and mocked some contracts offered by Kalshi, including the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest contract. Luana Lopes Lara responded that traditional markets and exchanges carry risks as well and that regulators are responsible for identifying and addressing such issues. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins subsequently called on both sides to stop attacking each other's business models.The dispute comes amid ongoing disagreements between federal regulators and states over the regulatory authority of prediction markets, with the central question being whether contracts involving sports, elections, and other real-world events are federally regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state law. Last week, a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering certain contracts. Two days ago, the CFTC instructed Kalshi to continue trading, pushing back against New York state's efforts to block its contracts. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: Cantor Fitzgerald has announced that it will open access to the prediction market platform Kalshi for institutional investors, providing event contract trading services to its approximately 3,000 institutional clients, including family offices and hedge funds.According to The Wall Street Journal, Cantor Fitzgerald will act as a broker arranging block trades for institutional clients, enabling them to participate in "yes/no" contract trading based on real-world event outcomes offered by Kalshi. The trading instruments cover multiple areas, including weather forecasts, commodity price trends, and corporate performance.This partnership marks the further entry of traditional financial institutions into the prediction market space. Kalshi is an event trading platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users can bet via contracts on whether specific events will occur, such as economic data releases, policy changes, weather conditions, and business events.In recent years, prediction markets have drawn attention from investors, with proponents arguing that they can reflect collective expectations through market prices and provide risk hedging tools for businesses and investment institutions. However, regulators and some market participants have also continued to scrutinize the boundary between these markets and gambling. (WSJ)
Odaily News - Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine stated that the window for the Clarity Act to pass before the November midterm elections is closing rapidly. Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026, he estimated that the probability of the bill becoming law before the midterms is only about 10%.Whitehouse-Levine described the bill as currently being in "August recess purgatory." He noted that the Senate has been working on the legislation for over a year, but as time in the current Congress runs out, completing the legislative process is becoming increasingly difficult.He added that the procedural motion scheduled for September 15 is only the first step in a series of votes needed to move the bill forward, so he remains "hopeful, but realistic about the odds."This assessment is more pessimistic than that of prediction markets. Polymarket currently shows a 21% probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law by year-end, with trading volume exceeding $7 million on the relevant market; Kalshi puts the probability at 23%, down from 50% less than a month ago.
Odaily Odaily News: The White House plans to host a tech industry leaders event with Trump tomorrow, with multiple tech industry leaders expected to attend. According to White House sources, prediction market companies were not invited to this event and will not be present. Previously, sources familiar with the matter revealed that President Trump is expected to attend a crypto industry innovation meeting to be held at the White House next week, engaging in discussions with executives from multiple crypto companies as well as heads of prediction market and AI firms. Executives from companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Kalshi are expected to participate and serve as members of the newly established Innovation Advisory Committee under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The meeting is expected to be held at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, discussing U.S. policies on innovation areas including fintech, crypto assets, prediction markets, and AI. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig and other government advisors are also expected to attend, and Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick may also be present.
Odaily News According to reports, multiple prediction markets are converging on pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and nearly 1% probability of a rate cut. Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option. The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: A final ruling by a Washington State court in the United States requires the prediction market platform Kalshi to stop offering event contracts related to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, science, and "named person mentions" in the state, and prohibits the promotion of related products to consumers in the state. Kalshi must implement geoblocking via IP addresses and user place of residence by August 19, and upgrade to a multi-source geofencing system by September 2. Contracts related to commodities, climate, economics, and finance are not subject to this ban. Kalshi previously applied for a stay of the ban, but the request was denied by the Washington State Court of Appeals.
the city of Baltimore and Mayor Brendan Scott have filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing the two companies of violating local gambling laws and regulations on deceptive business practices. The Mayor's office stated on Thursday that the two companies operate "illegal, unlicensed sports betting platforms" and mislead users about the legality and regulatory status of their products. The city of Baltimore argues that Kalshi and Polymarket describe event contracts as trading, but the transactions in question are essentially illegal gambling prohibited under state law. The complaint against Kalshi also names Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase as partners on its prediction market platform, alleging that these companies promote sports contracts as products that can be legally purchased and traded in Maryland. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the companies involved maintain that prediction market event contracts fall under the category of "swaps" within their regulatory scope. Polymarket stated that prediction markets operated on CFTC-registered exchanges are governed by federal law and should not be subject to state and local regulations. (Cointelegraph)
The Baltimore City government has accused platforms such as Kalshi of violating gambling laws, involving partners such as Coinbase. The focus of the case is the conflict between local government enforcement authority and platform operational compliance.
The New York City Council has launched an investigation into the marketing practices of prediction market companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket to verify whether they are targeting young adults with misleading tactics.
According to The Block, the New York City Council has launched an investigation into four prediction market platforms—Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Gemini Titan—alleging they employed "false, deceptive, or abusive" marketing tactics targeting young users. Among them, Polymarket was accused of paying social media creators to film videos placing fake bets on counterfeit websites, an incident first disclosed by The Wall Street Journal in June this year. Additionally, prediction market platforms face insider trading allegations; New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order in April prohibiting state government employees from using confidential government information to place bets on prediction markets.
Odaily News: Flight data company FlightAware has withdrawn its lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi. The lawsuit was filed only one day prior, with FlightAware alleging that Kalshi used its flight data and trademarks without authorization to support bets related to flight cancellations. This withdrawal does not affect the possibility of FlightAware refiling the lawsuit. The case comes amid growing scrutiny on social media over Kalshi's aviation-related contracts, with questions raised about potential incentives for malicious interference with flights, alongside relatively low retail participation. Neither company has publicly commented on the case. The lawsuit had raised questions about whether prediction markets can use third-party data and trademarks without a commercial agreement, while Kalshi continues to face other regulatory and legal challenges in multiple states. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News: Connecticut Federal District Court Judge Vernon D. Oliver denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, ruling that its sports event contracts do not constitute swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC therefore does not hold exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling noted that sports event contracts account for 80% to 90% of Kalshi's listed contracts and revenue, and the CFTC has never reviewed any of these contracts under relevant special rules. Oliver held that event outcomes fall under the category of event results, not separate events. Coinbase Financial Markets suffered a similar defeat on the same grounds, having offered Kalshi contracts through its platform since January as a futures commission merchant rather than a designated contract market, and Connecticut had not previously issued a cease-and-desist order against it. Kalshi was valued at approximately $11 billion at the time of its February hearing, with around 24,000 users in the state. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it has required prediction market operator Kalshi to continue operating in New York. Previously, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit against the company in late July, seeking to shut down the platform. The CFTC stated that after Kalshi sought assistance, the regulator invoked its "emergency powers" to require the company to continue operations. This action has intensified the rift between federal commodity regulators and state regulators over prediction markets. States argue that at least sports-related prediction markets constitute gambling platforms and violate state regulations; CFTC Chairman Mike Selig stated that Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be subject to a regulatory framework composed of state gambling laws. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News As prediction markets gradually expand into the realms of politics and government decision-making, insider trading risks are becoming a regulatory focus. U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has stated that it has identified multiple suspected cases of insider trading and has submitted the relevant leads to federal regulators.Kalshi spokesperson Laura Frank stated that the company prohibits market manipulation and insider trading and has established a trading surveillance system similar to those used in securities markets. Earlier this year, Kalshi's monitoring system flagged suspicious trading activity by former Congressman George Santos in markets related to the U.S. President's State of the Union address. The company subsequently submitted its investigative findings to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Additionally, federal agencies are investigating whether former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez used advance knowledge of Trump's speech content to trade on Kalshi-related markets.Meanwhile, the Trump family is accelerating its push into the prediction market space. Trump Media & Technology Group is developing a prediction market platform called TruthPredict, which will allow users to trade prediction contracts tied to major events. The company is also launching Truth API, providing Wall Street with high-speed data access to Truth Social content.Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of the former president, currently serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, while his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, has invested in rival Polymarket and joined its advisory board. This means the Trump family is simultaneously linked to the two leading prediction market platforms, while Trump Media Group is also building its own prediction market business.Although there is currently no public evidence showing that Donald Trump Jr. or the Trump family has traded using inside government information, the potential conflicts of interest arising from the intertwining of presidential public information, market trading, and family business interests are drawing growing external scrutiny.As of now, Donald Trump Jr.'s team and Trump Media & Technology Group have not immediately responded to requests for comment. (Fortune)
Odaily News: Polymarket will replace single-price snapshots with time-weighted average prices in short-term cryptocurrency markets for settling related contracts. This follows research and trader complaints indicating widespread manipulation in its settlement process. A study on 5-minute Bitcoin contracts found that some large Binance trades occurred in the final seconds before settlement and appeared to drive price movements; within potentially manipulated settlement windows, the majority of losses were borne by retail traders. The new system will use Chainlink Data Streams and short-duration TWAP windows. This mechanism is similar to the safeguards used by competing platform Kalshi, which relies on regulated price indices and moving averages to increase the difficulty and cost of short-term price distortion.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has announced the launch of an AI-powered tool called Blanket, designed to help small businesses hedge operational risks such as weather, energy prices, tariffs, and elections using event contracts.Blanket was developed by independent fintech entrepreneur Lauris Zminsky and operates on Kalshi's CFTC-regulated prediction market, though it is not an internal Kalshi product. The tool does not directly execute trades or handle funds; instead, it uses AI to analyze risks faced by businesses and recommends Kalshi event contracts that can be used for hedging.Kalshi stated that small businesses are becoming a key growth area, with an increasing number of companies using event contracts to manage uncertainty from abnormal weather, sports events, transportation costs, and tariff fluctuations. However, Blanket has also sparked debate over the positioning of prediction markets. Supporters argue that prediction markets are democratizing risk management tools previously available only to large financial institutions, while critics worry that they may further promote the "gamification" and speculative nature of financial products.Kalshi has already obtained regulatory approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and emphasized that its platform differs from casinos, offering stronger user protection mechanisms and greater transparency. (Fortune)
Odaily News A U.S. District Court Judge for the Eastern District of Michigan, Shalina Kumar, on Thursday denied Coinbase's preliminary injunction request to block the state government from enforcing regulations on sports event contracts. The ruling stated that Coinbase failed to demonstrate that its claim of federal law preempting Michigan's jurisdiction was likely to succeed on the merits of the case. Coinbase sued Michigan in December 2025, arguing that prediction markets fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), rather than state-level regulators. Coinbase sought to provide its platform customers, including those in Michigan, with access to event contracts issued by Kalshi, and stated in its complaint that Michigan law constitutes "conflict preemption" because it obstructs Congress's establishment of a unified federal regulatory framework.
: U.S. Federal District Judge Robert J. Shelby ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not prevent Utah from applying its anti-gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts, granting Utah's motion for summary judgment and denying Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction. Shelby stated that the jurisdictional provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act are subject to multiple reasonable interpretations, and in such cases, courts generally do not support federal law preemption. He also rejected Kalshi's argument that amendments under the Dodd-Frank Act established federal preemption for derivatives trading. Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick said the company disagrees with the ruling and will appeal to the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals. Currently, Utah users can still use sports event contracts, and the state has not yet initiated enforcement action. The New York Attorney General has already cited the ruling as supplementary grounds in opposing the CFTC's motion for a preliminary injunction against New York state. Earlier, New York sued Kalshi last week, alleging that it operates as an unlicensed gambling operator.