News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has won a partial preliminary injunction against the state of Illinois. On October 2, Judge Martha M. Pacold of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois ruled that the state's sports betting licensing regime and related criminal provisions may be preempted by federal law and cannot currently be enforced against Kalshi.The ruling temporarily blocks Illinois from requiring Kalshi to hold a state license, which was originally intended to restrict traders to those aged 21 or older and physically located within the state, as well as to limit the sporting events that contracts could track. The court also declined to rule on Illinois's newly established prediction market fees.Pacold stated that contracts on championship winners may constitute swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and should be traded on designated contract markets and subject to federal regulation. This determination differs from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals' August conclusion that such contracts constitute gambling rather than swaps.This is Kalshi's first victory in federal court since July. Illinois's new budget law imposes a 1.75% fee on the first 5 million relevant transactions on exchanges, then 3.5% thereafter, plus a 15% gross revenue fee and a per-transaction fee of 25 or 50 cents; the court has asked the parties to submit supplemental briefs on the fee issue. (Bitcoin.com News)
According to Ariel Givner, Judge Pacold of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois issued a ruling supporting a partial preliminary injunction in a lawsuit involving Coinbase, Kalshi, and the U.S. federal government/U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, thwarting Illinois' attempt to classify sports event contracts on the prediction market platform Kalshi under the state's gambling regulations in its initial legal push.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has submitted two proposed rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB): one would formally classify event contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood under the regulatory definition of "swaps"; the other would explicitly exclude casino-style gambling products from the swaps category. This move aims to respond to recent federal court rulings—the Sixth and Eighth Circuits both ruled that Kalshi's sports-related contracts do not qualify as swaps and should be subject to state gambling regulations, while the Third Circuit upheld the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets. With conflicting rulings across the circuits, the matter may ultimately need to be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. Currently, the CFTC comprises only one commissioner, Chair Mike Selig, with all related decisions made solely by him.
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former U.S. Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger for using a Kalshi account on a prediction market platform to bet on whether he would receive a presidential pardon. The trades occurred between December 2024 and January 2025.Kinzinger confirmed that he participated in contract trading related to his own pardon and whether Biden would issue a preventive pardon, stating that he made approximately 25 trades, with the majority resulting in losses overall, and that the related trading generated a profit of $823. He denied any wrongdoing, saying he did not possess non-public information. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: Prediction market operator Kalshi is in negotiations for a $1 billion funding round at a target valuation of $40 billion. Existing investors Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in discussions to lead the round, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group also participating in talks.The funding round has not yet been finalized, and the final list of investors and closing date have not been disclosed. Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October 2025, and completed a $1 billion funding round at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026.The U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against Kalshi on September 25 in lawsuits involving Ohio and Tennessee, allowing the two states to regulate its sports contracts under gambling laws. Kalshi argues that its products are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Bitcoin.com News)
Kalshi lost its appeal as the Sixth Circuit Court ruled that states may regulate sports betting contracts, a decision that diverges from its prior partial victories and could pave the way for the case to reach the Supreme Court.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit recently ruled that sports-related contracts on the Kalshi platform fall under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal financial derivatives. This ruling deepens the split within the national judicial system over regulatory authority for prediction markets, and the case is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court.
Odaily News: A panel of judges on the US Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that prediction market platform Kalshi's sports event contracts do not constitute swaps, and are therefore subject to state-level gambling regulation rather than US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rules.The ruling involves two lawsuits filed by Kalshi against regulatory authorities in Ohio and Tennessee. Kalshi sought injunctions to block the two states from pursuing legal action against it, but the Ohio federal court denied its request, while the Tennessee federal court granted it. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News: Two U.S. federal appellate courts have issued conflicting rulings on whether states can regulate Kalshi sports event contracts, and New Jersey has filed for U.S. Supreme Court review. At the heart of the dispute is whether these contracts are federally regulated financial swaps or should be subject to state gambling laws. Approximately 70% of Kalshi's daily trading volume comes from sports; if states gain regulatory authority, Kalshi could face state taxes of 10% to 51% on gambling revenue and other restrictions.
Odaily reports: Since August, the Ethereum perpetual contract market on prediction market platform Kalshi has seen nearly 1 million trades of nearly identical amounts, with notional trading volume exceeding $5 billion over the past month. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is reviewing the related activity and has not yet decided whether to open an investigation.In the 24 hours up to Wednesday 12:17 UTC, the market recorded 136,474 trades, with a trading value of approximately $584 million. More than 73,200 of those trades were concentrated at roughly $5,426 each, accounting for 54% of the trade count and 68% of the trading value. Open interest stood at $6.6 million, with single-day volume about 88 times the size of open interest.Kalshi said the repeated amounts came from fixed-size orders placed by market makers and involved hundreds of different traders, and were not wash trading. The platform said its system blocks self-trades and that the related transactions are monitored. As of now, regulators have not announced any enforcement action. (Bitcoin.com News)
According to The Block, all Democratic members of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee wrote to Committee Chairman Tim Scott, calling for a bipartisan public hearing on prediction markets rather than discussing them in closed-door sessions. That day, Republican members met privately with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss securities-linked products, investor protection, and related regulatory issues.
Odaily reports: The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) has filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court in support of the New Jersey Attorney General and gambling regulators' petition to hear their case against prediction market platform Kalshi. The petition seeks to clarify whether state governments or federal agencies have jurisdiction over prediction market companies.NCLGS stated that if the ruling favors Kalshi, states would be unable to regulate sports betting within prediction markets, potentially leading to regulatory confusion. The council believes that gambling-related matters should be handled by state regulators, and noted that casinos and other regulated entities may adjust their operations and products accordingly.New Jersey authorities filed a petition for a writ of certiorari on September 2, stemming from their appeal of a Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruling. Kalshi has not yet formally responded and must submit its position brief by November 9; the company has previously stated that it cannot be regulated separately by 50 different regulators. (Cointelegraph)
New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to rule on whether sports prediction activities conducted by prediction markets such as Kalshi constitute illegal sports gambling. Previously, a federal appellate court upheld state regulatory authority, prompting more states and tribes to intervene in related litigation.
Prediction market platform Kalshi stated it is not under investigation by the CFTC, clarifying media reports of regulatory scrutiny. The project explained that the anomalous trading data resulted from its liquidity incentive program.
Eleven Democratic senators on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee are urging Committee Chairman Tim Scott to hold a hearing on prediction markets. Previously, the committee planned to hold a prediction market roundtable next week attended only by Republican senators, focusing on securities-based prediction markets, with a Kalshi representative expected to attend. Currently, primary regulatory jurisdiction over prediction markets falls under the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Bernstein believes the exchange model transforms sports betting into a traffic-driven business, operating without house positions and utilizing a global order book with institutional market making. The firm assigns an Outperform rating to Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN), recommending focus on regulatory progress and the pace of institutional adoption.
Odaily News: A person familiar with the matter revealed that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating Kalshi for suspected wash trading. Since August, Kalshi traders have executed nearly 1 million trades in the Ethereum futures market, with each trade being almost identical in size, drawing the attention of federal regulators and traders. Kalshi stated that there is no fake trading on the platform, and that the recurring quotes are fixed quotes posted by market makers, which faster traders seize upon. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara said that attracting large traders to new markets to promote broader adoption is not uncommon.
Odaily News: IcoBeast.eth, Head of Crypto at Kalshi, posted on X stating that the Artemis chart displays prediction market trading volume share, not perpetual futures trading volume; Kalshi does not offer rebates for crypto prediction markets, and its contract count and notional value calculation methods are consistent with other prediction markets.Regarding claims that self-clearing members are selected by Kalshi as market makers, IcoBeast.eth stated this is untrue—any institution meeting regulatory requirements can become a self-clearing member of a CFTC-regulated exchange. He noted that exchanges such as CME, Hyperliquid, and Binance all improve liquidity through rebates and incentive programs; Kalshi's perpetual futures business is still in its early stages, and relevant incentive programs must be publicly filed and are available for public review.
According to Morningstar, the federally recognized sovereign Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana has announced the formal launch of its first tribal nation prediction market application via its newly created subsidiary, SaltTrade Derivatives. Powered by Kalshi, the United States' first regulated prediction market platform, the app allows users to trade event contracts tied to real-world outcomes on the Kalshi marketplace. Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a conditional no-action letter to the tribe, providing a compliance framework for its participation in a regulated derivatives market. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that regulated national infrastructure and tribal entrepreneurship can develop alongside each other, rather than being a zero-sum game. This project provides a replicable pathway model for other sovereign tribal nations entering the prediction market industry.
Odaily News: U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that she still hopes to push a crypto regulatory bill into law, but does not support the current version of the Clarity Act.Warren said the Clarity Act is Washington's first opportunity to achieve "meaningful crypto regulation," but any bill must include several core elements: regulating public officials' crypto investments, protecting national security and consumers, and strengthening the fight against illicit finance and terrorist financing.Her stance could become more critical next year. If Democrats regain control of the Senate after the November election, Warren could become chair of the Senate Banking Committee, one of the key bodies for digital asset regulatory legislation. The article notes that Kalshi prediction markets currently show a 52% probability of Democrats retaking the Senate.When asked whether she would lead crypto legislation if she headed the Banking Committee, Warren said she would be willing. She said she is willing to sit down with Democrats, Republicans, and the industry to craft a crypto bill that protects national security, protects the economy, and reduces corruption.