Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market that supports cryptocurrency deposits.where investors can trade event contracts tied to real-world events. Trading contracts based on the outcome of specific events allows users to tap into a wider range of topics compared to traditional stock and derivatives. Whether you are an expert in a particular field or have a keen interest in certain subjects (news, finance, pop culture, etc.), Kalshi provides an opportunity to earn profits based on accurate predictions. Kalshi also provides extensive resources and tools (tutorials, market data, etc.) to help traders understand prediction markets and improve their trading strategies.
According to Reuters citing insiders, prediction market platform Kalshi is in advanced talks with existing and new investors to raise approximately $1 billion in a new funding round. Participants include Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group, while Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management may lead the round.
Odaily News: Prediction market operator Kalshi is in negotiations for a $1 billion funding round at a target valuation of $40 billion. Existing investors Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in discussions to lead the round, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group also participating in talks.The funding round has not yet been finalized, and the final list of investors and closing date have not been disclosed. Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October 2025, and completed a $1 billion funding round at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026.The U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against Kalshi on September 25 in lawsuits involving Ohio and Tennessee, allowing the two states to regulate its sports contracts under gambling laws. Kalshi argues that its products are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily reports: Prediction market and derivatives platform OG.com Markets has submitted a rule filing to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) seeking to launch cash-settled perpetual futures on individual stocks with no expiration date, tradable 5 days a week, 24 hours a day.OG.com recently spun off from cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com to become an independent platform valued at $5 billion. Coinbase, Payward's Bitnomial exchange, and Kalshi have also applied to offer U.S. single-stock perpetual futures. (Cointelegraph)
According to Decrypt, Morgan Stanley has become a strategic partner of New York Prediction Market Summit NEXTPredict and will host discussions on institutional capital entering prediction markets at the event scheduled for October 22–23. Pierre Lindh, co-founder of NEXTPredict, noted that this marks the first time a bank has publicly engaged in events within this sector. The session will be moderated by Stephen Grambling, Head of US Gaming, Hotels & Leisure Research at Morgan Stanley, focusing on the opportunities for institutional funds to enter prediction markets, along with market structure and risk considerations. Currently, around 90% of liquidity and trading volume in prediction markets remains concentrated in sports contracts, though some financial institutions are beginning to explore its potential applications in market forecasting, internal forecasting, and corporate risk hedging. Morgan Stanley previously also took part in Kalshi’s $1 billion Series F funding round completed in May this year.
Odaily reports: Prediction market platform Kalshi is seeking to raise at least $750 million at a $40 billion valuation, doubling its $22 billion valuation from six months ago. The platform was approved as a designated contract market by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2021.As of September 4, Kalshi's trading volume over the past 30 days reached $14.1 billion, while Polymarket's stood at $3.1 billion, with Kalshi accounting for approximately 82% of their combined trading volume. More than 80% of Kalshi's trading volume comes from sports events. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News: U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that she still hopes to push a crypto regulatory bill into law, but does not support the current version of the Clarity Act.Warren said the Clarity Act is Washington's first opportunity to achieve "meaningful crypto regulation," but any bill must include several core elements: regulating public officials' crypto investments, protecting national security and consumers, and strengthening the fight against illicit finance and terrorist financing.Her stance could become more critical next year. If Democrats regain control of the Senate after the November election, Warren could become chair of the Senate Banking Committee, one of the key bodies for digital asset regulatory legislation. The article notes that Kalshi prediction markets currently show a 52% probability of Democrats retaking the Senate.When asked whether she would lead crypto legislation if she headed the Banking Committee, Warren said she would be willing. She said she is willing to sit down with Democrats, Republicans, and the industry to craft a crypto bill that protects national security, protects the economy, and reduces corruption.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has won a partial preliminary injunction against the state of Illinois. On October 2, Judge Martha M. Pacold of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois ruled that the state's sports betting licensing regime and related criminal provisions may be preempted by federal law and cannot currently be enforced against Kalshi.The ruling temporarily blocks Illinois from requiring Kalshi to hold a state license, which was originally intended to restrict traders to those aged 21 or older and physically located within the state, as well as to limit the sporting events that contracts could track. The court also declined to rule on Illinois's newly established prediction market fees.Pacold stated that contracts on championship winners may constitute swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and should be traded on designated contract markets and subject to federal regulation. This determination differs from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals' August conclusion that such contracts constitute gambling rather than swaps.This is Kalshi's first victory in federal court since July. Illinois's new budget law imposes a 1.75% fee on the first 5 million relevant transactions on exchanges, then 3.5% thereafter, plus a 15% gross revenue fee and a per-transaction fee of 25 or 50 cents; the court has asked the parties to submit supplemental briefs on the fee issue. (Bitcoin.com News)
According to Ariel Givner, Judge Pacold of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois issued a ruling supporting a partial preliminary injunction in a lawsuit involving Coinbase, Kalshi, and the U.S. federal government/U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, thwarting Illinois' attempt to classify sports event contracts on the prediction market platform Kalshi under the state's gambling regulations in its initial legal push.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has submitted two proposed rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB): one would formally classify event contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood under the regulatory definition of "swaps"; the other would explicitly exclude casino-style gambling products from the swaps category. This move aims to respond to recent federal court rulings—the Sixth and Eighth Circuits both ruled that Kalshi's sports-related contracts do not qualify as swaps and should be subject to state gambling regulations, while the Third Circuit upheld the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets. With conflicting rulings across the circuits, the matter may ultimately need to be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. Currently, the CFTC comprises only one commissioner, Chair Mike Selig, with all related decisions made solely by him.
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former U.S. Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger for using a Kalshi account on a prediction market platform to bet on whether he would receive a presidential pardon. The trades occurred between December 2024 and January 2025.Kinzinger confirmed that he participated in contract trading related to his own pardon and whether Biden would issue a preventive pardon, stating that he made approximately 25 trades, with the majority resulting in losses overall, and that the related trading generated a profit of $823. He denied any wrongdoing, saying he did not possess non-public information. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: Prediction market operator Kalshi is in negotiations for a $1 billion funding round at a target valuation of $40 billion. Existing investors Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in discussions to lead the round, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group also participating in talks.The funding round has not yet been finalized, and the final list of investors and closing date have not been disclosed. Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October 2025, and completed a $1 billion funding round at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026.The U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against Kalshi on September 25 in lawsuits involving Ohio and Tennessee, allowing the two states to regulate its sports contracts under gambling laws. Kalshi argues that its products are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Bitcoin.com News)
Kalshi lost its appeal as the Sixth Circuit Court ruled that states may regulate sports betting contracts, a decision that diverges from its prior partial victories and could pave the way for the case to reach the Supreme Court.
Odaily News: A person familiar with the matter revealed that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating Kalshi for suspected wash trading. Since August, Kalshi traders have executed nearly 1 million trades in the Ethereum futures market, with each trade being almost identical in size, drawing the attention of federal regulators and traders. Kalshi stated that there is no fake trading on the platform, and that the recurring quotes are fixed quotes posted by market makers, which faster traders seize upon. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara said that attracting large traders to new markets to promote broader adoption is not uncommon.
Odaily Report: Quantitative analyst Beni posted on X that Kalshi ETH-PERP currently has open interest of approximately $3.1 million, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $538.6 million, equivalent to an average daily turnover of about 174 times the entire open interest position, completing a turnover approximately every 8 minutes and 18 seconds; its largest single position is approximately $17,600.Beni stated that Kalshi's previously submitted filing to the CFTC shows that eligible self-clearing member market makers can receive a 0.3 basis point rebate, while takers pay 0.3 basis points, resulting in a combined trading cost of 0 basis points for both parties. He also mentioned that Kalshi and Jump Trading had reached a cooperation arrangement exchanging liquidity for equity, and questioned that the platform's method of calculating trading volume by number of contracts traded and displaying it with a dollar sign may cause misunderstanding.
According to The Block, Bernstein analysts indicated that Senate Republicans' progress on the Clarity Act may surpass market consensus expectations. The Republican proposal has been finalized, incorporating 126 substantive amendments put forward by Democrats. President Trump has also endorsed most measures within the bipartisan ethics framework, including granting enforcement authority to state attorneys general. Bernstein pointed out that the crypto market currently holds a pessimistic view toward Tuesday’s procedural vote, with "any upside surprises not yet priced in." The probability of the bill's passage on prediction market platform Kalshi has climbed back above 30%. Analysts cautioned that a failure to pass the legislation, combined with hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve, could trigger a "significant pullback" in markets. However, even if the bill fails, it will accelerate SEC and CFTC crypto regulatory rulemaking rather than derail broader regulatory efforts.
Odaily News - Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Tema is launching a prediction market ETF. However, this product is a thematic ETF, not an actual event contract ETF, which the SEC is still considering. The ETF will allocate 15% of its positions to private assets from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a management fee of 75 basis points.
Odaily News: Recent Bitcoin volatility has triggered a wave of leveraged long position liquidations. On August 22, hourly liquidations reached $529 million, with long positions accounting for $478 million; on August 23, an additional $84 million in crypto long positions were liquidated within one hour.Prediction market Kalshi launched the first spot Bitcoin perpetual futures contract approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on June 3, with liquidations reaching $5.5 billion in the first two weeks. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the product offers U.S. institutions regulated onshore perpetual contract trading.Benjamin Schiffrin, Director of Securities Policy at Better Markets, pointed out that perpetual futures are high-risk crypto products for retail investors, and the CFTC did not impose additional investor protections when approving them. Analysis account Qmo noted that there are significant Bitcoin long liquidation pools in the $62,000 to $67,000 range; trader Money Bunny disclosed that short liquidations reached $2.7 billion to $3.5 billion within 24 hours. (Forbes Digital Assets)
Odaily News, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that while the recent U.S. employment report appears concerning on the surface, deeper economic trends are shifting. Productivity gains, the expanding application of AI, and potential deflationary pressures could become the main market themes moving forward.Wood noted that the U.S. federal deficit as a percentage of GDP is currently around 5.6%, approaching levels seen during the Reagan era in the 1980s. She believes that if productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate as ARK anticipates, that ratio could fall to about 5% by year-end, although most economic forecasters view this target as difficult to achieve.On inflation, Wood believes the market is underestimating deflationary risks. She noted that recent inflation data has consistently come in below expectations, with the June CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month, PPI down 0.3% month-over-month, and core PCE rising just 0.1% month-over-month. She argues that companies that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools may face greater pricing pressure and competitive risks in the future.Wood is also bullish on the U.S. dollar. ARK's data model based on Kalshi prediction markets suggests the dollar index could rise to 102.6 this year. She pushed back against the view that "overseas capital is selling off U.S. assets," pointing out that Japan's recent currency market intervention primarily involved selling euros and buying yen, rather than selling dollars.In energy markets, Wood believes a global crude oil supply glut is taking shape. She noted that the UAE's production has risen to historic highs after leaving OPEC, and further downside in oil prices could act as a deflationary driver for the global economy.Regarding the AI investment boom, Wood said concerns about an AI bubble are overblown, and the current growth in capital expenditure likely represents the early stage of a long-term technological revolution rather than a short-term speculative cycle.In the crypto asset space, Wood said Bitcoin's performance relative to gold is stabilizing, and believes that as the "agentic commerce" economy develops, Bitcoin and stablecoins could become the biggest beneficiaries.
Odaily News CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy, the operator of the world's largest futures exchange, and Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, clashed verbally during a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) roundtable in Washington. Duffy questioned whether prediction markets face the same regulatory scrutiny as established exchanges and noted that certain contracts could be subject to manipulation.Terry Duffy stated that CME Group is not a "barker at the circus" and mocked some contracts offered by Kalshi, including the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest contract. Luana Lopes Lara responded that traditional markets and exchanges carry risks as well and that regulators are responsible for identifying and addressing such issues. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins subsequently called on both sides to stop attacking each other's business models.The dispute comes amid ongoing disagreements between federal regulators and states over the regulatory authority of prediction markets, with the central question being whether contracts involving sports, elections, and other real-world events are federally regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state law. Last week, a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering certain contracts. Two days ago, the CFTC instructed Kalshi to continue trading, pushing back against New York state's efforts to block its contracts. (Decrypt)
prediction market platform Kalshi is internally deploying an AI agent system named "Harrison" to optimize its prediction market contract designs and stress-test betting outcomes, aiming to reduce the risk of errors and ambiguities in large-scale trading. According to co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, the AI tool is being used to handle critical internal processes for the platform's millions of daily transactions, focusing on resolving complexities in the wording and rules of event contracts covering areas such as political elections, sports events, and award outcomes.Kalshi stated that "Harrison" is helping the team identify potential vulnerabilities in contract designs in advance, reducing disputes caused by unclear definitions, thereby enhancing market operational stability and execution efficiency. As the scale of prediction market trading expands, this AI system is seen as a significant upgrade to the infrastructure layer, contributing to improved contract standardization and automated governance capabilities. (Bloomberg)
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi's 15-minute gold market recorded 542 million contracts traded in September, with estimated fees of approximately $5 million, surpassing the Ethereum market's 318 million contracts and $2.6 million; the Bitcoin market's estimated fees during the same period reached $60.4 million.The gold contract was launched in August, allowing traders to bet on whether gold would rise or fall within 15 minutes. Kalshi stated that its commodity trading volume reached $400 million within 7 months of launch, more than 4 times the trading volume of the crypto market during the same period.In the 7 days ending October 5, fees from 15-minute crypto, commodity, and financial markets reached $20.4 million, accounting for 80% of the platform's non-sports fees; this category of markets contributed 13% of trading volume and 20% of fees. (Cointelegraph)
According to Ariel Givner, Judge Pacold of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois issued a ruling supporting a partial preliminary injunction in a lawsuit involving Coinbase, Kalshi, and the U.S. federal government/U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, thwarting Illinois' attempt to classify sports event contracts on the prediction market platform Kalshi under the state's gambling regulations in its initial legal push.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has submitted two proposed rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB): one would formally classify event contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood under the regulatory definition of "swaps"; the other would explicitly exclude casino-style gambling products from the swaps category. This move aims to respond to recent federal court rulings—the Sixth and Eighth Circuits both ruled that Kalshi's sports-related contracts do not qualify as swaps and should be subject to state gambling regulations, while the Third Circuit upheld the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets. With conflicting rulings across the circuits, the matter may ultimately need to be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. Currently, the CFTC comprises only one commissioner, Chair Mike Selig, with all related decisions made solely by him.
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former U.S. Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger for using a Kalshi account on a prediction market platform to bet on whether he would receive a presidential pardon. The trades occurred between December 2024 and January 2025.Kinzinger confirmed that he participated in contract trading related to his own pardon and whether Biden would issue a preventive pardon, stating that he made approximately 25 trades, with the majority resulting in losses overall, and that the related trading generated a profit of $823. He denied any wrongdoing, saying he did not possess non-public information. (Decrypt)
According to Cointelegraph, Kalshi has won a significant ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, allowing it to continue operating its event contracts business in Ohio and Tennessee.
Odaily News: The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued a staff advisory on September 22 stating that contracts tied to specific individuals' statements, appearances, or interactions are more susceptible to manipulation risks, requiring exchanges to explain protective measures on a contract-by-contract basis, including whether outcome determiners are bound by independent obligations, whether they may be subject to pressure, whether outcomes can be externally verified, and whether monitoring mechanisms are suited to the relevant risks.The document represents staff views and does not constitute binding rules, nor does it prohibit such markets. The CFTC also disclosed that a White House teleprompter operator once used early access to speech drafts to trade such contracts, earning $107,500; Kalshi subsequently still listed the relevant market and said it had responded to prior discussions with the CFTC.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi's 15-minute gold market recorded 542 million contracts traded in September, with estimated fees of approximately $5 million, surpassing the Ethereum market's 318 million contracts and $2.6 million; the Bitcoin market's estimated fees during the same period reached $60.4 million.The gold contract was launched in August, allowing traders to bet on whether gold would rise or fall within 15 minutes. Kalshi stated that its commodity trading volume reached $400 million within 7 months of launch, more than 4 times the trading volume of the crypto market during the same period.In the 7 days ending October 5, fees from 15-minute crypto, commodity, and financial markets reached $20.4 million, accounting for 80% of the platform's non-sports fees; this category of markets contributed 13% of trading volume and 20% of fees. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has won a partial preliminary injunction against the state of Illinois. On October 2, Judge Martha M. Pacold of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois ruled that the state's sports betting licensing regime and related criminal provisions may be preempted by federal law and cannot currently be enforced against Kalshi.The ruling temporarily blocks Illinois from requiring Kalshi to hold a state license, which was originally intended to restrict traders to those aged 21 or older and physically located within the state, as well as to limit the sporting events that contracts could track. The court also declined to rule on Illinois's newly established prediction market fees.Pacold stated that contracts on championship winners may constitute swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and should be traded on designated contract markets and subject to federal regulation. This determination differs from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals' August conclusion that such contracts constitute gambling rather than swaps.This is Kalshi's first victory in federal court since July. Illinois's new budget law imposes a 1.75% fee on the first 5 million relevant transactions on exchanges, then 3.5% thereafter, plus a 15% gross revenue fee and a per-transaction fee of 25 or 50 cents; the court has asked the parties to submit supplemental briefs on the fee issue. (Bitcoin.com News)
According to Forbes, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined trading volume of $53 billion in July, more than doubling the $26 billion seen in May. However, this figure is calculated based on a face value of $1 per contract at expiration and does not represent the actual capital invested by investors.
Polymarket's Bitcoin 2026 price prediction market has reached $72.6 million in trading volume, with a reference price of approximately $84,950. Market-implied probabilities show that Bitcoin has a 73%, 54%, and 39% chance of reaching $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 respectively before 2027.Kalshi's Bitcoin year-end closing price prediction market has a trading volume of approximately $39.5 million, with a predicted value of $86,240. Claude Opus 5.5 and ChatGPT-6 Astra predict Bitcoin's price on December 31, 2026 to be $91,500 and $94,000 respectively. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News: Nevada has opposed Kalshi's request to delay proceedings in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit while awaiting rulemaking by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The state argued that the court's earlier finding that the contracts at issue are not swaps was based on the text, context, and legislative purpose of the Commodity Exchange Act, and that CFTC rulemaking would not change that conclusion. Nevada also stated that the request is intended to prolong what it describes as Kalshi's illegal operations.
According to Ariel Givner, Judge Pacold of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois issued a ruling supporting a partial preliminary injunction in a lawsuit involving Coinbase, Kalshi, and the U.S. federal government/U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, thwarting Illinois' attempt to classify sports event contracts on the prediction market platform Kalshi under the state's gambling regulations in its initial legal push.