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Project Overview
Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market that supports cryptocurrency deposits.where investors can trade event contracts tied to real-world events. Trading contracts based on the outcome of specific events allows users to tap into a wider range of topics compared to traditional stock and derivatives. Whether you are an expert in a particular field or have a keen interest in certain subjects (news, finance, pop culture, etc.), Kalshi provides an opportunity to earn profits based on accurate predictions. Kalshi also provides extensive resources and tools (tutorials, market data, etc.) to help traders understand prediction markets and improve their trading strategies.
Kalshi 洽谈以 400 亿美元估值融资至少 7.5 亿美元，红杉资本与威灵顿管理或联合领投
据 The Information 报道，预测市场平台 Kalshi 正在进行新一轮融资谈判，计划以 400 亿美元估值 融资至少 7.5 亿美元。知情人士称，红杉资本 与 威灵顿管理 正洽谈担任联合领投方，其中威灵顿管理或将成为新投资者。报道同时指出，本轮融资规模尚未最终敲定，后续仍可能调整。
U.S. Federal Judge Rules Kalshi Sports Contracts Are Not Swaps, CFTC Lacks Exclusive Jurisdiction
Odaily News: Connecticut Federal District Court Judge Vernon D. Oliver denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, ruling that its sports event contracts do not constitute swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC therefore does not hold exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling noted that sports event contracts account for 80% to 90% of Kalshi's listed contracts and revenue, and the CFTC has never reviewed any of these contracts under relevant special rules. Oliver held that event outcomes fall under the category of event results, not separate events. Coinbase Financial Markets suffered a similar defeat on the same grounds, having offered Kalshi contracts through its platform since January as a futures commission merchant rather than a designated contract market, and Connecticut had not previously issued a cease-and-desist order against it. Kalshi was valued at approximately $11 billion at the time of its February hearing, with around 24,000 users in the state. (Bitcoin.com News)
River Markets Completes $8.5M Seed Round Led by Haun Ventures
Odaily News – River Markets, a startup building trading infrastructure for prediction markets, has announced the completion of an $8.5 million seed funding round, led by Haun Ventures with participation from Y Combinator, Coinbase Ventures, and Qube Research Technologies, among others. The new capital will primarily be used to expand the engineering team, enhance trading system speed and security, and grow institutional clientele, while also developing new tools to support large-scale capital management and cross-platform trading.In recent years, prediction markets have drawn attention from institutional investors. Data from industry platforms shows that institutional trading demand is growing rapidly. For example, prediction market platform Kalshi previously stated that its institutional trading volume increased by approximately 800% within six months. Meanwhile, market participants have begun using prediction markets for risk hedging, including building trading positions around real-world economic variables such as carbon emission allowances and GPU rental prices. (Fortune)
Kalshi launches Midterms Hub, showing real-time odds for U.S. congressional races
Prediction market platform Kalshi has launched the Midterms Hub to display real-time market odds for U.S. Senate and House races. The page integrates real-time trading prices, polling averages, Federal Election Commission fundraising data, and curated news. Kalshi is also seeking regulatory approval to expand perpetual futures trading beyond cryptocurrencies and is pursuing new funding at a valuation of approximately $40 billion.
Prediction market Kalshi's trading volume surges to $24.2 billion during World Cup
: U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi experienced explosive growth during the 2026 World Cup, with platform trading volume soaring from $6.67 billion on June 22 to $24.2 billion on July 14. The single "World Cup Champion" prediction market saw trading volume exceed $1.2 billion. Kalshi stated that its growth reflects a new trend in the AI era: as the volume of AI-generated content increases substantially, authentic, real-time, and non-replicable human interaction scenarios are becoming scarcer, positioning prediction markets as a novel tool for observing public sentiment and collective judgment.Meanwhile, Kalshi is seeking to transform from a sports prediction platform into the next-generation financial trading infrastructure. The company currently holds Designated Contract Market (DCM) status recognized by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and plans to expand into more prediction areas including sports, geopolitics, culture, and economics. (Fortune)
Prediction market platform Pascal completes $9 million Series A funding round led by USV
: Prediction market platform Pascal has announced the completion of a $9 million Series A funding round. The platform aims to create a next-generation prediction market platform for professional traders and institutional users, challenging the current market landscape dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket.This funding round was led by Union Square Ventures (USV), with the specific valuation not disclosed. This financing expands on a $6 million seed round from August last year, with early investors including Wintermute Ventures and DBA.Headquartered in New York, Pascal positions itself as a prediction market platform similar to Kalshi, but aims to offer users lower fees, higher liquidity, and more specialized trading tools through a trading model closer to perpetual futures.Pascal co-founder Ivo Crnkovic-Rubsamen stated that the hope is to establish highly liquid prediction markets for real business risks in the future, allowing companies to utilize these markets for risk management and hedging. (Fortune)
CME CEO: trade.xyz and Hyperliquid Are Having a Real Impact on the U.S. Market
Odaily News: CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy said this morning at a CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting that trade.xyz and Hyperliquid are having a tangible impact on the U.S. market. trade.xyz, a leading market builder on the Hyperliquid chain, focuses on perpetual contracts for equities, commodities, and pre-IPO assets, and its trading volume already accounts for a significant share of Hyperliquid's activity. Terry Duffy has previously voiced concerns on multiple occasions regarding leverage and regulatory issues associated with such offshore platforms. Additionally, Terry Duffy clashed with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and Kalshi Chief Operating Officer Luana Lopes Lara over prediction market regulation. Duffy noted that certain prediction market contracts carry manipulation risks, particularly those listed via self-certification. He pointed out that contracts tied to the content of the President's State of the Union address and the timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's departure from office may be susceptible to manipulation, adding that this is detrimental to the entire industry.
CME CEO Clashes Fiercely With CFTC Chairman and Kalshi COO Over Prediction Market Regulation
According to The Block, at a meeting of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee, CME CEO Terrence Duffy publicly addressed the risks of manipulation in prediction market contracts, stating that "there are indeed people manipulating these contracts, which is extremely harmful to the industry," and expressing concern over the potential manipulation risks associated with numerous self-certified contracts, as well as those related to Trump's State of the Union address and Maduro's removal from office. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig promptly interrupted and rebutted this, noting that all the aforementioned contracts operate overseas and are not issues for the U.S. market. Subsequently, Kalshi COO Luana Lopes Lara challenged CME by asking whether it had also faced manipulation issues, leading to a heated exchange between both parties. Currently, the dispute over regulatory jurisdiction for prediction markets continues to escalate, with the CFTC asserting "exclusive jurisdiction" and having already filed lawsuits against several states, while pledging to advance revisions to consumer protection rules; meanwhile, some members of Congress have introduced legislation aimed at banning the listing and trading of prediction contracts tied to sports or gambling.
CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy and Kalshi Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara Clash Verbally at CFTC Roundtable
Odaily News CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy, the operator of the world's largest futures exchange, and Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, clashed verbally during a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) roundtable in Washington. Duffy questioned whether prediction markets face the same regulatory scrutiny as established exchanges and noted that certain contracts could be subject to manipulation.Terry Duffy stated that CME Group is not a "barker at the circus" and mocked some contracts offered by Kalshi, including the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest contract. Luana Lopes Lara responded that traditional markets and exchanges carry risks as well and that regulators are responsible for identifying and addressing such issues. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins subsequently called on both sides to stop attacking each other's business models.The dispute comes amid ongoing disagreements between federal regulators and states over the regulatory authority of prediction markets, with the central question being whether contracts involving sports, elections, and other real-world events are federally regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state law. Last week, a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering certain contracts. Two days ago, the CFTC instructed Kalshi to continue trading, pushing back against New York state's efforts to block its contracts. (Decrypt)
Cantor Fitzgerald opens Kalshi prediction market to hedge funds
Odaily News: Cantor Fitzgerald has announced that it will open access to the prediction market platform Kalshi for institutional investors, providing event contract trading services to its approximately 3,000 institutional clients, including family offices and hedge funds.According to The Wall Street Journal, Cantor Fitzgerald will act as a broker arranging block trades for institutional clients, enabling them to participate in "yes/no" contract trading based on real-world event outcomes offered by Kalshi. The trading instruments cover multiple areas, including weather forecasts, commodity price trends, and corporate performance.This partnership marks the further entry of traditional financial institutions into the prediction market space. Kalshi is an event trading platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users can bet via contracts on whether specific events will occur, such as economic data releases, policy changes, weather conditions, and business events.In recent years, prediction markets have drawn attention from investors, with proponents arguing that they can reflect collective expectations through market prices and provide risk hedging tools for businesses and investment institutions. However, regulators and some market participants have also continued to scrutinize the boundary between these markets and gambling. (WSJ)
Solana Policy Institute CEO: Clarity Act Stuck in "August Recess Purgatory," Only 10% Chance of Passage Before Midterms
Odaily News - Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine stated that the window for the Clarity Act to pass before the November midterm elections is closing rapidly. Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026, he estimated that the probability of the bill becoming law before the midterms is only about 10%.Whitehouse-Levine described the bill as currently being in "August recess purgatory." He noted that the Senate has been working on the legislation for over a year, but as time in the current Congress runs out, completing the legislative process is becoming increasingly difficult.He added that the procedural motion scheduled for September 15 is only the first step in a series of votes needed to move the bill forward, so he remains "hopeful, but realistic about the odds."This assessment is more pessimistic than that of prediction markets. Polymarket currently shows a 21% probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law by year-end, with trading volume exceeding $7 million on the relevant market; Kalshi puts the probability at 23%, down from 50% less than a month ago.
Prediction market companies not invited; White House to hold tech leaders event with Trump tomorrow
Odaily Odaily News: The White House plans to host a tech industry leaders event with Trump tomorrow, with multiple tech industry leaders expected to attend. According to White House sources, prediction market companies were not invited to this event and will not be present. Previously, sources familiar with the matter revealed that President Trump is expected to attend a crypto industry innovation meeting to be held at the White House next week, engaging in discussions with executives from multiple crypto companies as well as heads of prediction market and AI firms. Executives from companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Kalshi are expected to participate and serve as members of the newly established Innovation Advisory Committee under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The meeting is expected to be held at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, discussing U.S. policies on innovation areas including fintech, crypto assets, prediction markets, and AI. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig and other government advisors are also expected to attend, and Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick may also be present.
Cathie Wood: Bitcoin's Performance Relative to Gold Is Stabilizing
Odaily News, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that while the recent U.S. employment report appears concerning on the surface, deeper economic trends are shifting. Productivity gains, the expanding application of AI, and potential deflationary pressures could become the main market themes moving forward.Wood noted that the U.S. federal deficit as a percentage of GDP is currently around 5.6%, approaching levels seen during the Reagan era in the 1980s. She believes that if productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate as ARK anticipates, that ratio could fall to about 5% by year-end, although most economic forecasters view this target as difficult to achieve.On inflation, Wood believes the market is underestimating deflationary risks. She noted that recent inflation data has consistently come in below expectations, with the June CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month, PPI down 0.3% month-over-month, and core PCE rising just 0.1% month-over-month. She argues that companies that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools may face greater pricing pressure and competitive risks in the future.Wood is also bullish on the U.S. dollar. ARK's data model based on Kalshi prediction markets suggests the dollar index could rise to 102.6 this year. She pushed back against the view that "overseas capital is selling off U.S. assets," pointing out that Japan's recent currency market intervention primarily involved selling euros and buying yen, rather than selling dollars.In energy markets, Wood believes a global crude oil supply glut is taking shape. She noted that the UAE's production has risen to historic highs after leaving OPEC, and further downside in oil prices could act as a deflationary driver for the global economy.Regarding the AI investment boom, Wood said concerns about an AI bubble are overblown, and the current growth in capital expenditure likely represents the early stage of a long-term technological revolution rather than a short-term speculative cycle.In the crypto asset space, Wood said Bitcoin's performance relative to gold is stabilizing, and believes that as the "agentic commerce" economy develops, Bitcoin and stablecoins could become the biggest beneficiaries.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing This Year Drops to 37%, Some Provisions May Inhibit Institutional Participation
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing Within the Year Decreases, Potentially Undermining Crypto Market Prospects
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
Kalshi Settles $3.32 Million Spotify Prediction Market After Fraudulent Streaming Warning
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
Robinhood Reportedly in Talks to Integrate Crypto.com Prediction Market Products
According to Cointelegraph, Robinhood is negotiating with crypto trading platform Crypto.com to expand its prediction market business, planning to integrate yes/no event contract products provided by Crypto.com. People familiar with the matter stated that both parties are still in the discussion phase, and specific cooperation arrangements have not yet been finalized. Robinhood launched prediction market services in March 2025, initially offering related products through Kalshi to comply with regulatory requirements of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and subsequently integrated ForecastEx and Rotella. Bernstein analysts recently raised the price target from $130 to $160 due to optimism regarding Robinhood's development in the prediction market and tokenized stock sectors, and predicted that prediction market business revenue could reach $1.7 billion in 2028. However, the U.S. prediction market industry currently still faces legal disputes between state and federal regulators.
a16z crypto: Prediction market trading volume hits a new record for three consecutive weeks, with weekly volume rising to $14.4 billion
data released by a16z crypto shows prediction market trading volume has set a new all-time high for the third consecutive week. Last week, total market trading volume reached $14.4 billion for the first time, a significant increase from approximately $5–6 billion at the beginning of the year. The previous peak of around $10 billion was set just a week prior. Additionally, open interest rose to $1.6 billion, hitting a new record for the third straight week, indicating that the pace of new position opening continues to outpace closing, resulting in ever-expanding capital exposure. Notably, growth in non-sports markets—covering areas such as macroeconomics and unexpected events—has been particularly pronounced. Last week, combined trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $3.6 billion, already surpassing the total volume of all prediction market categories last year.
CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy and Kalshi Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara Clash Verbally at CFTC Roundtable
Odaily News CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy, the operator of the world's largest futures exchange, and Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, clashed verbally during a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) roundtable in Washington. Duffy questioned whether prediction markets face the same regulatory scrutiny as established exchanges and noted that certain contracts could be subject to manipulation.Terry Duffy stated that CME Group is not a "barker at the circus" and mocked some contracts offered by Kalshi, including the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest contract. Luana Lopes Lara responded that traditional markets and exchanges carry risks as well and that regulators are responsible for identifying and addressing such issues. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins subsequently called on both sides to stop attacking each other's business models.The dispute comes amid ongoing disagreements between federal regulators and states over the regulatory authority of prediction markets, with the central question being whether contracts involving sports, elections, and other real-world events are federally regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state law. Last week, a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering certain contracts. Two days ago, the CFTC instructed Kalshi to continue trading, pushing back against New York state's efforts to block its contracts. (Decrypt)
Kalshi develops AI agent "Harrison" to stress-test prediction market contracts and betting logic
prediction market platform Kalshi is internally deploying an AI agent system named "Harrison" to optimize its prediction market contract designs and stress-test betting outcomes, aiming to reduce the risk of errors and ambiguities in large-scale trading. According to co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, the AI tool is being used to handle critical internal processes for the platform's millions of daily transactions, focusing on resolving complexities in the wording and rules of event contracts covering areas such as political elections, sports events, and award outcomes.Kalshi stated that "Harrison" is helping the team identify potential vulnerabilities in contract designs in advance, reducing disputes caused by unclear definitions, thereby enhancing market operational stability and execution efficiency. As the scale of prediction market trading expands, this AI system is seen as a significant upgrade to the infrastructure layer, contributing to improved contract standardization and automated governance capabilities. (Bloomberg)
Cantor Fitzgerald opens Kalshi prediction market to hedge funds
Odaily News: Cantor Fitzgerald has announced that it will open access to the prediction market platform Kalshi for institutional investors, providing event contract trading services to its approximately 3,000 institutional clients, including family offices and hedge funds.According to The Wall Street Journal, Cantor Fitzgerald will act as a broker arranging block trades for institutional clients, enabling them to participate in "yes/no" contract trading based on real-world event outcomes offered by Kalshi. The trading instruments cover multiple areas, including weather forecasts, commodity price trends, and corporate performance.This partnership marks the further entry of traditional financial institutions into the prediction market space. Kalshi is an event trading platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users can bet via contracts on whether specific events will occur, such as economic data releases, policy changes, weather conditions, and business events.In recent years, prediction markets have drawn attention from investors, with proponents arguing that they can reflect collective expectations through market prices and provide risk hedging tools for businesses and investment institutions. However, regulators and some market participants have also continued to scrutinize the boundary between these markets and gambling. (WSJ)
Prediction markets price roughly 74% probability the Fed holds rates steady in September
Odaily News According to reports, multiple prediction markets are converging on pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and nearly 1% probability of a rate cut. Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option. The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
Most prediction markets will cease offering their services; Kalshi must complete geoblocking in Washington State by September 2
Odaily News: A final ruling by a Washington State court in the United States requires the prediction market platform Kalshi to stop offering event contracts related to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, science, and "named person mentions" in the state, and prohibits the promotion of related products to consumers in the state. Kalshi must implement geoblocking via IP addresses and user place of residence by August 19, and upgrade to a multi-source geofencing system by September 2. Contracts related to commodities, climate, economics, and finance are not subject to this ban. Kalshi previously applied for a stay of the ban, but the request was denied by the Washington State Court of Appeals.
Solana platform DoubleZero integrates Kalshi prediction market data
DoubleZero on the Solana platform integrates prediction market Kalshi's order book into its low-latency data feed system to meet institutional demand for Wall Street-style high-speed trading data.
FlightAware Withdraws Lawsuit Against Kalshi Over Flight Data, May Still Refile
Odaily News: Flight data company FlightAware has withdrawn its lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi. The lawsuit was filed only one day prior, with FlightAware alleging that Kalshi used its flight data and trademarks without authorization to support bets related to flight cancellations. This withdrawal does not affect the possibility of FlightAware refiling the lawsuit. The case comes amid growing scrutiny on social media over Kalshi's aviation-related contracts, with questions raised about potential incentives for malicious interference with flights, alongside relatively low retail participation. Neither company has publicly commented on the case. The lawsuit had raised questions about whether prediction markets can use third-party data and trademarks without a commercial agreement, while Kalshi continues to face other regulatory and legal challenges in multiple states. (CoinDesk)
River Markets Completes $8.5M Seed Round Led by Haun Ventures
Odaily News – River Markets, a startup building trading infrastructure for prediction markets, has announced the completion of an $8.5 million seed funding round, led by Haun Ventures with participation from Y Combinator, Coinbase Ventures, and Qube Research Technologies, among others. The new capital will primarily be used to expand the engineering team, enhance trading system speed and security, and grow institutional clientele, while also developing new tools to support large-scale capital management and cross-platform trading.In recent years, prediction markets have drawn attention from institutional investors. Data from industry platforms shows that institutional trading demand is growing rapidly. For example, prediction market platform Kalshi previously stated that its institutional trading volume increased by approximately 800% within six months. Meanwhile, market participants have begun using prediction markets for risk hedging, including building trading positions around real-world economic variables such as carbon emission allowances and GPU rental prices. (Fortune)
Related news
CME CEO: trade.xyz and Hyperliquid Are Having a Real Impact on the U.S. Market
Odaily News: CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy said this morning at a CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting that trade.xyz and Hyperliquid are having a tangible impact on the U.S. market. trade.xyz, a leading market builder on the Hyperliquid chain, focuses on perpetual contracts for equities, commodities, and pre-IPO assets, and its trading volume already accounts for a significant share of Hyperliquid's activity. Terry Duffy has previously voiced concerns on multiple occasions regarding leverage and regulatory issues associated with such offshore platforms. Additionally, Terry Duffy clashed with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and Kalshi Chief Operating Officer Luana Lopes Lara over prediction market regulation. Duffy noted that certain prediction market contracts carry manipulation risks, particularly those listed via self-certification. He pointed out that contracts tied to the content of the President's State of the Union address and the timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's departure from office may be susceptible to manipulation, adding that this is detrimental to the entire industry.
CME CEO Clashes Fiercely With CFTC Chairman and Kalshi COO Over Prediction Market Regulation
According to The Block, at a meeting of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee, CME CEO Terrence Duffy publicly addressed the risks of manipulation in prediction market contracts, stating that "there are indeed people manipulating these contracts, which is extremely harmful to the industry," and expressing concern over the potential manipulation risks associated with numerous self-certified contracts, as well as those related to Trump's State of the Union address and Maduro's removal from office. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig promptly interrupted and rebutted this, noting that all the aforementioned contracts operate overseas and are not issues for the U.S. market. Subsequently, Kalshi COO Luana Lopes Lara challenged CME by asking whether it had also faced manipulation issues, leading to a heated exchange between both parties. Currently, the dispute over regulatory jurisdiction for prediction markets continues to escalate, with the CFTC asserting "exclusive jurisdiction" and having already filed lawsuits against several states, while pledging to advance revisions to consumer protection rules; meanwhile, some members of Congress have introduced legislation aimed at banning the listing and trading of prediction contracts tied to sports or gambling.
CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy and Kalshi Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara Clash Verbally at CFTC Roundtable
Odaily News CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy, the operator of the world's largest futures exchange, and Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of prediction market platform Kalshi, clashed verbally during a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) roundtable in Washington. Duffy questioned whether prediction markets face the same regulatory scrutiny as established exchanges and noted that certain contracts could be subject to manipulation.Terry Duffy stated that CME Group is not a "barker at the circus" and mocked some contracts offered by Kalshi, including the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest contract. Luana Lopes Lara responded that traditional markets and exchanges carry risks as well and that regulators are responsible for identifying and addressing such issues. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins subsequently called on both sides to stop attacking each other's business models.The dispute comes amid ongoing disagreements between federal regulators and states over the regulatory authority of prediction markets, with the central question being whether contracts involving sports, elections, and other real-world events are federally regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state law. Last week, a Washington state judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering certain contracts. Two days ago, the CFTC instructed Kalshi to continue trading, pushing back against New York state's efforts to block its contracts. (Decrypt)
Kalshi Files to Launch Copper Perpetual Contract, Utilizing Pyth Network Price Data with No Expiration Date
Odaily News - Prediction market operator Kalshi filed an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on August 18 to launch the copper perpetual contract COPPERPERP. The contract will track the dollar-denominated spot price of copper and utilize price data from blockchain market data provider Pyth Network.The contract is cash-settled and does not involve physical delivery of copper; regular payments between long and short traders will help keep the contract price aligned with the copper price. The perpetual contract has no expiration date, allowing traders to hold positions indefinitely without needing to roll over to new contracts.Kalshi previously received approval in May to offer bitcoin perpetual contracts and has also submitted an application for stock index perpetual contracts. Less than a week before the copper perpetual contract application was filed, a judge in Washington state ordered the company to cease offering sports, election, political, and other event-related betting in the state. (Decrypt)
Cantor Fitzgerald opens Kalshi prediction market to hedge funds
Odaily News: Cantor Fitzgerald has announced that it will open access to the prediction market platform Kalshi for institutional investors, providing event contract trading services to its approximately 3,000 institutional clients, including family offices and hedge funds.According to The Wall Street Journal, Cantor Fitzgerald will act as a broker arranging block trades for institutional clients, enabling them to participate in "yes/no" contract trading based on real-world event outcomes offered by Kalshi. The trading instruments cover multiple areas, including weather forecasts, commodity price trends, and corporate performance.This partnership marks the further entry of traditional financial institutions into the prediction market space. Kalshi is an event trading platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users can bet via contracts on whether specific events will occur, such as economic data releases, policy changes, weather conditions, and business events.In recent years, prediction markets have drawn attention from investors, with proponents arguing that they can reflect collective expectations through market prices and provide risk hedging tools for businesses and investment institutions. However, regulators and some market participants have also continued to scrutinize the boundary between these markets and gambling. (WSJ)
White House: Prediction Market Companies Will Not Attend Wednesday Tech Leaders Summit
According to POLITICO, White House officials said that executives of prediction market companies will not attend the White House tech leaders event hosted by Trump on August 20. The event was originally intended as the kickoff meeting for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) advisory committee, and top executives from cryptocurrency and prediction market companies were previously expected to attend. Officials confirmed that cryptocurrency industry executives will still participate in the event, but spokespeople for major prediction market operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket have not yet responded to requests for comment.