News linked to both this project and an event.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has announced a partnership with compliance technology company Comply to provide enterprise clients with prediction market trading monitoring and compliance management tools. Comply will integrate prediction market trading data from Kalshi into its regulatory software system. Enterprises using Comply's services will be able to review employees' trading activities in event contracts to ensure compliance with company trading policies and prevent trading based on material non-public information (MNPI). This compliance capability will also extend to perpetual futures contracts launched by Kalshi in the future. (CNBC)
Odaily News – New York Judge Jed S. Rakoff has denied the emergency temporary restraining order request filed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which sought to block New York State from continuing its enforcement case against prediction market operator Kalshi. The ruling dismissed the request without prejudice, and the CFTC may resubmit its motion to Judge Victor Marrero on August 7. Rakoff held that the CFTC failed to demonstrate a substantial likelihood of success on the merits, nor did it establish irreparable harm. New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit against Kalshi last Friday, alleging that the company operates an illegal and unlicensed gambling business by offering contracts tied to sports, elections, and other events. The New York State Gaming Commission had already issued a cease-and-desist order to Kalshi in October 2025. The case centers on whether federal commodities law preempts state-level gambling enforcement over event contracts, with state regulators arguing that the relevant contracts constitute wagering, while the CFTC and Kalshi maintain that they are derivatives subject to the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction.
Odaily News: Former U.S. Representative George Santos has reached a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the July 31 order, Santos must disgorge $17,569.98, pay a $17,500 civil monetary penalty, and is prohibited from trading on any CFTC-regulated entity for three years. The CFTC found that Santos made misleading public statements and material omissions while trading event contracts on the prediction market platform Kalshi related to whether he would attend President Donald Trump's State of the Union address. Santos neither admitted nor denied the findings or conclusions in the order. Trading records show that Santos opened an account on February 11 and traded only that contract, first purchasing Yes contracts and profiting $3,448.43, then continuing to publicly state he would attend after flights and trains were canceled, while purchasing No contracts. That position ultimately earned $14,390.57. Kalshi stated that it had detected the related activity, frozen the account, and provided evidence to the CFTC.
New York Supreme Court Justice Melissa A. Crane ruled that, since the relevant case has been transferred to federal court, the preliminary injunction motion previously filed by New York State against Kalshi is now moot and therefore dismissed the motion. The court also noted that if the case is remanded to state court in the future, the relevant motion may be resubmitted.
Odaily News – Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour pushed back on Monday in a CNBC interview against New York State's lawsuit targeting the company, arguing that the case is not just about sports-related contracts, but challenges the entire prediction market business model.Mansour stated that if the logic of New York's lawsuit were upheld, "it could be copy-pasted to sue Nasdaq." He said Kalshi operates more like Nasdaq: the platform matches buyers and sellers and charges approximately 1% in transaction fees, rather than acting as a bookmaker directly wagering against users like traditional sports betting company DraftKings.New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Kalshi last week, accusing its event contracts of constituting illegal gambling and seeking at least $36 billion in damages, with the exact amount still pending full accounting.Mansour also compared Kalshi's regulatory and legal challenges to the early regulatory resistance faced by Uber and Airbnb, suggesting that prediction markets, as a new type of platform economy, are prone to misunderstanding or overregulation under existing legal frameworks.
Odaily News: Former US Congressman George Santos has reached a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC stated that Santos engaged in manipulative trading behavior while trading a prediction contract on Kalshi regarding whether he would attend the State of the Union address in February 2026, profiting over $17,500 from the trades.According to the CFTC's Friday announcement, Santos is required to pay $35,000 as part of the settlement, but neither admitted nor denied the regulator's findings.The CFTC stated that in the two weeks leading up to the State of the Union address, Santos repeatedly made public comments about whether he would attend the event, causing significant fluctuations in the price of the event contract. For example, while holding a "Yes" position indicating he would attend, he posted on X asking what he should wear to the State of the Union. Within hours, the price of the Yes position rose, after which Santos closed his position for a profit.The CFTC also alleged that Santos subsequently continued to post updates about his travel to Washington, D.C., including flights and train rides, and profited by trading back and forth based on market reactions to his public statements. The CFTC stated that Santos's conduct was intentional, or at least reckless. He traded in an event contract whose underlying outcome he could influence, and affected the contract price through misleading public statements or omissions of information, thereby profiting from his trading positions.Santos's attorney, Joseph W. Murray, stated in Friday's announcement that the State of the Union contract was Santos's first foray into prediction market betting.
Odaily News: New York State has filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, accusing it of operating an illegal gambling business in the state. New York Attorney General Letitia James is asking the court to order Kalshi to cease operations in New York State and require the company to pay fines and compensation to users. New York State has also filed a motion for a temporary restraining order, seeking to suspend Kalshi's event contract trading in the state, and requesting the court to order Kalshi to fully refund users' funds, surrender all proceeds obtained through these products, pay penalties equal to three times its profits, and a fine of $100,000 per product. According to court documents, the requested compensatory damages could amount to at least $36 billion, with the exact figure to be determined after a full accounting.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
据美国威斯康星州东区联邦地区法院 7月 28 日裁决，法院驳回了 CFTC 要求禁止威斯康星州对 Kalshi、Coinbase、Robinhood、Polymarket及 Crypto.com 等平台的体育相关事件合约执法的初步禁令申请。法院认为，CFTC 未能证明其主张——即《商品交易法》（CEA）对"掉期"的定义涵盖体育事件合约——具有胜诉可能性，且赌博监管属于州传统警察权范畴，联邦法律并未明确表示意图取代州法。此外，法院同时驳回了 Kalshi、Crypto.com 衍生品北美公司（CDNA）的介入申请及美国博彩协会（AGA）的被告介入申请。目前，CFTC 与威斯康星州的实质性诉讼仍将继续推进。
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
CME Group, the operator of the largest U.S. derivatives exchange, sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its Chairman Mike Selig last month, opposing the regulator's approval for prediction market platform Kalshi and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase to launch crypto perpetual contracts. Non-US perpetual contracts achieved a trading volume of $60 trillion last year. CME argues that the CFTC misclassified the relevant products and improperly applied the law, claiming that futures should have an expiration date, whereas perpetual contracts allow traders to establish leveraged positions on the future price of an asset without an expiration limit. CME also contends that the products harm its longer-dated futures business and that the CFTC failed to adequately consider the impact. The dispute between the parties intensified during the early stages of the Iran conflict, when demand rose for 24-hour crude oil perpetual contracts on offshore DeFi exchanges like Hyperliquid, as well as for on-chain prediction market trading related to the crude oil market. CME subsequently applied to accelerate the launch of 24-hour West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures trading but was blocked by the CFTC. Kalshi, after launching its first related product last month, stated that its trading volume exceeded $1 billion in less than a week. The CFTC is currently advancing the U.S. perpetual contracts market through policy statements and case-by-case reviews, rather than through new rulemaking procedures.
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
According to CoinDesk, U.S. District Court Judge for the District of Minnesota Katherine Menendez ruled on July 28 local time that the Minnesota state law criminalizing the operation of prediction markets likely violates the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and granted a preliminary injunction to Kalshi, Polymarket, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to suspend the enforcement of the state law. The judge held that prediction market contracts structurally fall under 'swap' products within the CFTC's regulatory scope, federal law takes precedence over state law, and the three plaintiffs are 'likely to prevail in the formal trial'. Additionally, the judge noted that failing to suspend the enforcement of the law would cause 'irreparable harm' to Kalshi and Polymarket. The preliminary injunction will remain in effect until the final judgment of the case is issued.
U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez for the District of Minnesota ruled on Monday that a recently enacted Minnesota state law banning prediction markets may conflict with the Commodity Exchange Act. She granted a preliminary injunction in favor of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC had sued the state of Minnesota earlier this year after the state passed a law classifying the operation of prediction markets within the state as a criminal offense. The three parties argued that prediction market contracts are structured as "swaps" and that the state law infringes upon the CFTC's regulatory authority over such products. In her ruling, Judge Menendez stated that the parties are likely to succeed on the merits of their claim that the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts the state law.
Odaily reports: After perpetual futures entered the regulated US market, Wall Street institutions are still taking a wait-and-see approach. Bank of America estimates that the global annual trading volume of perpetual futures is approximately 90 trillion USD; within a week of Kalshi launching perpetual futures in June, trading volume exceeded 1 billion USD. Perpetual futures are similar to standard futures but have no expiration date, meaning traders do not need to close or roll over positions monthly or quarterly. Instead, periodic funding rates keep the contract price close to the underlying asset. On May 29, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved Kalshi to offer such contracts, and Coinbase also received approval to list regulated perpetual futures in the US. Insiders say that large financial institutions are still studying these products, with proprietary trading firms, market makers, and emerging clearing firms likely to be the first to participate. Large banks face stricter capital rules, client obligations, and reputational risks, and typically wait for years of data, clear regulatory treatment, and stable infrastructure. Perpetual futures may also be used to manage weekend risk, but market depth remains a concern. Industry insiders note that regulatory disagreements are emerging over whether certain contracts should be classified as futures or swaps, and CME has already challenged the CFTC's handling of Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contract.
sports merchandise and betting platform Fanatics will acquire a federally regulated exchange and clearing house from BGC to launch and settle its own prediction market operations. Fanatics and BGC also plan to develop new market data products that combine prediction market activity with traditional financial market data. This deal enables Fanatics to enter the prediction market space, competing directly with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
According to Cointelegraph, Robinhood is negotiating with crypto trading platform Crypto.com to expand its prediction market business, planning to integrate yes/no event contract products provided by Crypto.com. People familiar with the matter stated that both parties are still in the discussion phase, and specific cooperation arrangements have not yet been finalized. Robinhood launched prediction market services in March 2025, initially offering related products through Kalshi to comply with regulatory requirements of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and subsequently integrated ForecastEx and Rotella. Bernstein analysts recently raised the price target from $130 to $160 due to optimism regarding Robinhood's development in the prediction market and tokenized stock sectors, and predicted that prediction market business revenue could reach $1.7 billion in 2028. However, the U.S. prediction market industry currently still faces legal disputes between state and federal regulators.
预测市场运营商 Kalshi 于 7 月 24 日向 Netflix 发出停止侵权函，指控其新纪录片《Instadocs: The Prediction Games》预告片构成诽谤，并要求在 7 月 26 日影片首映前撤下预告片并公开更正。 Kalshi 称，预告片使用了一张伪造的交易单，暗示其允许内华达州体育博彩，且违反州法院命令。该公司表示，画面中的收据日期为 2025 年 5 月 16 日，电话界面显示“crop”，并不符合其平台样式。 Netflix 否认伪造画面，表示相关交易发生在 2025 年 5 月、内华达限制生效前，场景拍摄于拉斯维加斯一场私人活动。内华达监管机构要求 Kalshi 在 8 月 12 日前完成地理围栏部署，否则需按每天 12 万美元支付罚款。
OdailyOdailyOdaily News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same election. The Commission also noted that knowingly voting without being eligible could constitute a Class I felony. The Commission unanimously approved a legal memorandum regarding prediction markets during a meeting on July 9, and issued a statewide notice on Tuesday. The restrictions apply only to the corresponding election and do not automatically affect a trader's voting eligibility in other unrelated elections. Benjamin Freeman, Head of Election Business at Kalshi, stated that the guidance is "clearly unconstitutional and unlawful," adding that the company has hundreds of thousands of users in Wisconsin alone. Robert DeNault, Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel at Kalshi, said that election markets certified by the CFTC and offered on federally regulated exchanges are legal. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated that the company would respond to the Commission's claims through appropriate legal proceedings. Both companies argue that their products are tradable financial contracts, not gambling.