News linked to both this project and an event.
OdailyOdailyOdaily News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same election. The Commission also noted that knowingly voting without being eligible could constitute a Class I felony. The Commission unanimously approved a legal memorandum regarding prediction markets during a meeting on July 9, and issued a statewide notice on Tuesday. The restrictions apply only to the corresponding election and do not automatically affect a trader's voting eligibility in other unrelated elections. Benjamin Freeman, Head of Election Business at Kalshi, stated that the guidance is "clearly unconstitutional and unlawful," adding that the company has hundreds of thousands of users in Wisconsin alone. Robert DeNault, Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel at Kalshi, said that election markets certified by the CFTC and offered on federally regulated exchanges are legal. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated that the company would respond to the Commission's claims through appropriate legal proceedings. Both companies argue that their products are tradable financial contracts, not gambling.
Kalshi and Polymarket processed a combined trading volume of over $44 billion in 2025. As of April 2026, the monthly trading volume on the two platforms has risen to $24 billion, surpassing the average monthly betting volume of legal sports platforms in the United States. Kalshi reported $263.5 million in fee revenue last year, with its annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion since then. Prediction markets operate on a binary contract exchange model, where the platform matches buyers and sellers without placing bets, holding positions, or bearing the risk of event outcomes. Its primary revenue comes from transaction fees, with additional revenue sources including data licensing, API access for institutional traders, and, in some cases, market creation fees on the platform. In the U.S. market, Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market (DCM) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket re-entered the U.S. market at the end of 2025 by acquiring the CFTC-regulated QCEX for $112 million. Some states still classify prediction market contracts as gambling, and related federal and state-level lawsuits remain ongoing. The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) does not directly define the attributes of prediction market contracts, and classification varies among member states. If a platform uses crypto settlement and provides custody or transfer services to EU users, it must also obtain a license as a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP).
According to Reuters, prediction market platform Polymarket announced it will launch a legal challenge against the decision by the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) to block its website. ANJ unilaterally blocked access to Polymarket in France last week, citing "potential for significant gambling losses for users" and "risk of manipulation of platform bets." Polymarket expressed disappointment over this and stated it would seek relief through French legal procedures. Previously, the Spanish government temporarily banned Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi in May this year, and US derivatives regulators also released a new regulatory draft targeting the prediction market industry in June, indicating a clear trend of tightening global regulation.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has launched the Midterms Hub to display real-time market odds for U.S. Senate and House races. The page integrates real-time trading prices, polling averages, Federal Election Commission fundraising data, and curated news. Kalshi is also seeking regulatory approval to expand perpetual futures trading beyond cryptocurrencies and is pursuing new funding at a valuation of approximately $40 billion.
According to PR Newswire, institutional digital asset infrastructure provider Talos announced the completion of its integration with CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, enabling institutional clients to directly trade Kalshi event contracts and crypto perpetual contracts via the existing Talos interface without requiring additional access. Talos has launched two core features for this: first, an algorithmic trading suite for market makers and hedge funds (including strategies such as TWAP and POV), supporting spread trading between perpetual contracts and between perpetual contracts and spot; second, a block OTC trading interface based on the RFQ platform, connecting the OTC liquidity provider network.
: The Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development, under the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture, held a hearing on how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should regulate prediction markets. Carl Kennedy, a partner at Katten Muchin Rosenman, stated that the CFTC may lack sufficient staffing to adequately handle regulation and enforcement for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Kennedy believes that the CLARITY Act, currently under consideration in the Senate, could grant the CFTC greater authority, both for digital assets and for addressing the growth of prediction markets. He stated that if the CFTC is to handle new asset classes such as cash markets and crypto assets, it will require more resources. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, since being confirmed by the Senate in December, has argued that the agency has exclusive jurisdiction over related companies and believes that event contracts on these platforms fall under the CFTC's jurisdiction as swaps. Several U.S. states have sued Kalshi and Polymarket over sports betting-related disputes, and these cases could ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
: U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi experienced explosive growth during the 2026 World Cup, with platform trading volume soaring from $6.67 billion on June 22 to $24.2 billion on July 14. The single "World Cup Champion" prediction market saw trading volume exceed $1.2 billion. Kalshi stated that its growth reflects a new trend in the AI era: as the volume of AI-generated content increases substantially, authentic, real-time, and non-replicable human interaction scenarios are becoming scarcer, positioning prediction markets as a novel tool for observing public sentiment and collective judgment.Meanwhile, Kalshi is seeking to transform from a sports prediction platform into the next-generation financial trading infrastructure. The company currently holds Designated Contract Market (DCM) status recognized by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and plans to expand into more prediction areas including sports, geopolitics, culture, and economics. (Fortune)
A Kalshi public relations representative stated that U.S. states do not have the jurisdictional authority to regulate prediction markets, a legal boundary that has been clarified through relevant case law by multiple courts, including the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit.Kalshi expressed disappointment over Washington State's continued allocation of public financial resources to advance related regulatory actions, asserting that the authority to regulate prediction markets should rest at the federal level.
that, according to Daniel Wallach, a U.S. Washington State court has issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, ruling that its operations violate Washington state gambling laws and constitute illegal gambling activities; moreover, the Commodity Exchange Act does not have the authority to supersede state-level gambling laws.
According to The Block, Bernstein stated that before the compliant computing power futures planned by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are approved, AI computing power derivatives adopting crypto market mechanisms have already launched. Currently, Architect's offshore trading platform AX has launched GPU perpetual futures, while Kalshi has listed GPU rental price event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a potential insider trading incident involving the prediction market platform Kalshi. A staff member allegedly responsible for operating President Trump's teleprompter is accused of placing bets on related prediction event contracts.According to reports, this individual may have used early access to information about Trump's public remarks to wager on the Kalshi platform regarding whether Trump's related statements would be released or contain specific phrasing. Currently, the CFTC is investigating whether the relevant trades involved the use of non-public information and whether they violated prediction market trading rules.This investigation has once again raised market concerns about the risk of insider trading in prediction markets. As trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow rapidly, prediction contracts involving political, economic, and public events are increasingly coming under regulatory scrutiny. (CNBC)
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday suspended an emergency rule by Kalshi, preventing it from forcibly liquidating open sports event contracts held by certain Michigan residents, and requiring Kalshi to follow normal procedures to fulfill related transactions. Kalshi submitted the emergency rule on July 12, after the Ingham County Circuit Court in Michigan orally requested it to close some positions. A letter dated July 6 stated that the related transactions must be voided, canceled, and refunded. The dispute began in March, when Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel and the Michigan Gaming Control Board sued Kalshi, alleging that its sports event contracts constituted unlicensed internet sports betting. Kalshi argues that the relevant products are federally regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC stated that allowing Kalshi's emergency rule to take effect could undermine confidence that completed derivatives transactions will be honored and could cause significant market disruption. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that a state government cannot force a designated contract market to violate its obligations.
According to The Block, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially ordered prediction market platform Kalshi on July 14 to honor all trades involving Michigan residents, directly countering a 14-day injunction previously issued by a Michigan court—which required Kalshi to stop offering sports-related event contracts and cancel some executed trades. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that state governments lack the authority to compel registered Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) to violate federal obligations, as forcibly canceling executed trades would create a ripple effect across the entire market, severely undermining market contractual certainty. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, however, maintained that Kalshi is essentially an unauthorized online gambling platform and that state gambling laws apply to it.
Odaily News: Kalshi originally planned to cancel prediction market trades placed by Michigan customers following a court order, but the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission intervened, stating that Michigan has no authority over the contracts. The CFTC prevented the company from complying with the court order, which stemmed from Michigan's recent attempt to halt sports-related trading. Michigan's Attorney General argued that such trades constitute illegal gambling. Michigan is one of several states where the derivatives regulator is defending its legal authority over prediction markets. (CoinDesk).
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)
Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett tweeted that Judge Analisa Torres of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York denied its preliminary injunction application in the case involving Kalshi, allowing the case to proceed to the motion to dismiss stage. The court held that New York State gambling law applies to Kalshi's sports event contracts, and such application is not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. This ruling means Kalshi has suffered another unfavorable setback in the relevant legal dispute.
the prediction market industry, represented by Kalshi, is dealing with legal disputes in multiple US states, arguing in a series of court hearings this week that state regulators should not have jurisdiction over the matter. These legal challenges are progressing in Nevada and Michigan, with live arguments taking place in Minnesota, and the case could potentially be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Meanwhile, North Carolina is close to imposing a state tax on prediction market revenue. (CoinDesk).
: Music streaming platform Spotify has deleted over 500,000 fake streams for the song "Earrings" by musician Malcolm Todd. The song had been pushed to the top of the charts. Spotify's investigation found that the stream manipulation was linked to prediction market betting activities, where traders on the Kalshi platform placed bets on which song would become the most-streamed track on Spotify in the US in June. The market had a trading volume of $3 million. Before Spotify completed its investigation, Kalshi declared Todd the winner and settled the market based on the manipulated data. After discovering the issue, Spotify requested that Kalshi and Polymarket remove their branding and clarify that there is no partnership between them. Kalshi stated it is cooperating with the investigation, while Polymarket has not responded.
the Massachusetts Attorney General has received court approval to file an amended complaint against the prediction market platform Kalshi, adding allegations that Kalshi markets to users under the age of 21 through social media and campus campaigns, and has failed to take effective measures to prevent them from using the platform. Kalshi allows individuals aged 18 and older to create accounts and place bets on sports events. The case originated in September 2025, with state authorities accusing Kalshi of offering sports betting in violation of state law. The CFTC previously filed a brief in Massachusetts asserting exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, with Chairman Michael Selig stating that Congress has granted the CFTC sole authority to regulate the commodity derivatives market. Kalshi has not yet responded to requests for comment. (Cointelegraph)
According to Reuters, Michigan Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina issued a temporary restraining order against prediction market platform Kalshi on June 29 local time upon the application of State Attorney General Dana Nessel, prohibiting it from offering sports event contract trading to Michigan residents and requiring it to connect to third-party geolocation services licensed by the state Gaming Control Board, or face a fine of $120,000 per day. Michigan thus becomes the second state to ban Kalshi through a court injunction after Nevada, while a similar injunction in Massachusetts was suspended due to Kalshi's appeal. Kalshi maintains that its business is under the exclusive jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and stated it will continue to fight in court.