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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recently launched an investigation into the prediction market platform Polymarket, and the investigation is still ongoing.Previously, including a lawsuit filed by a consumer protection organization accepted by the Washington High Court, Polymarket has faced multiple allegations of using paid endorsements on social media for misleading promotion, specifically targeting college students. A Polymarket spokesperson responded that the company is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets and is currently conducting a comprehensive audit of active promotional content to ensure compliance with standards and regulatory disclosure requirements. Additionally, over a dozen U.S. states have taken legal action against Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of operating illegal sports betting, while the CFTC has countersued some states, asserting exclusive jurisdiction. (FT)
Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that former U.S. Acting Solicitor General Prelogar, representing the Coalition for Prediction Markets, has submitted an amicus brief supporting Kalshi to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, describing it as a “masterpiece.” Paul Grewal pointed out that the document not only outlines the historical background of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets but also presents three key arguments:1. Prediction markets can uniquely aggregate market information and convert it into simple price signals, collectively aggregated by market participants.2. Users of prediction markets trade at prices that market participants are willing to accept. They cannot control contract prices and bear the legal obligation to provide users with fair access to contracts.3. The laws of various U.S. states are unsuitable for regulating prediction markets because their core objectives are not to maintain fair markets, price discovery, information aggregation, risk hedging, or prevent market manipulation.
prediction market platform Kalshi is in talks to raise a new round of funding at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, with a potential deal closing as early as the third quarter. Last month, Kalshi completed a $1 billion funding round from investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, and Morgan Stanley, at a valuation of $22 billion.Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the company is considering an IPO, but it will not go public in 2026, with a potential listing likely no earlier than late 2027 or 2028. Kalshi reported that as of April 2026, its annualized trading volume reached $178 billion, a 32-fold increase year-over-year.Kalshi is currently embroiled in a legal dispute between U.S. state and federal regulators over the oversight of prediction markets. The controversy includes whether sports event contracts constitute derivatives regulated by the CFTC or illegal gambling. CME has sued the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's "perpetual" futures, Kentucky sued Kalshi and Polymarket this month, and the CFTC subsequently sued Kentucky to block its enforcement action. (Decrypt)
According to Cryptopolitan, prediction market platform Kalshi has filed a lawsuit against Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Attorney General Kwame Raoul, among other officials, in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois over the state’s newly signed SB3019 bill. The bill requires prediction market platforms to obtain state-level operating licenses and imposes a 0.2% tax on digital asset transactions involving Illinois residents; it is set to take effect on July 1. Kalshi argues that, as a CFTC-registered platform, it is protected under the Commodity Exchange Act, which grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over exchange-traded derivatives—a federal authority that conflicts with the state-level regulatory framework. The company has also sought both a temporary restraining order and a permanent injunction to prevent the bill from taking effect as scheduled.
According to Odaily, within the ten days leading up to the World Cup, Polymarket's soccer category trading volume exceeded $2 billion, a 300% increase compared to the previous ten days. The average daily trading volume rose from $53 million before the tournament to approximately $220 million. Meanwhile, last Thursday, Kalshi's open interest reached a record $1.16 billion, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time and growing 350% since the beginning of the year.Although Polymarket's open interest levels remained relatively stable during the World Cup, the open interest on Polymarket's U.S. branch only saw moderate growth, failing to reach the highs from April 2026. Kalshi's open interest has grown faster than its trading volume, indicating that its user base holds positions for longer periods and has established larger directional positions. Its CFTC-regulated channel and direct USD deposit gateway have attracted U.S. institutions and high-net-worth dollar investors. (The Block)
this week that Kalshi has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois against Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, Governor JB Pritzker, and other state officials.Kalshi stated that the state's budget bill, SB3019, which requires prediction market platforms to obtain state-level licenses and is set to take effect on July 1, conflicts with the federal preemption provision of the Commodity Exchange Act, putting it in a position of either violating federal or state law. According to Kalshi, if it ceases to offer sports event contracts in Illinois to comply with the bill, it would violate the uniformity requirements of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and harm its business interests. Kalshi has requested the court to grant a temporary restraining order, a preliminary injunction, and a permanent injunction to prevent Illinois from enforcing the law. (The Block)
According to CNBC, in a recent interview, Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market platform Kalshi, clarified that while the company is in the early stages of planning its IPO, it will not go public in 2026; a listing window between 2027 and 2028 appears more realistic, as previously anticipated by the market. Regarding concerns over insider trading risks, Tarek Mansour stated that Kalshi has strengthened its compliance framework—including enhancing KYC procedures, verifying traders’ employer information, and filing lawsuits against suspected violations—to improve market transparency and trust.
the U.S. CFTC on Tuesday sued Kentucky, attempting to prevent the state from regulating prediction market platforms as illegal sports betting and gambling operations, further establishing federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.Previously, Kentucky had last week sued platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed illegal sports betting and gambling businesses within the state.In its complaint filed with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, the CFTC stated that Kentucky’s attempt to shut down federally regulated designated contract markets interferes with the federal regulatory system established by Congress for the national swaps market. The agency claims "exclusive jurisdiction" over event contracts and prediction market products.Kentucky has become the ninth state that the CFTC has sued in the prediction market regulatory dispute, indicating that the conflict between federal derivatives regulation and state-level gambling oversight continues to escalate.
Rob Hocking, Head of Global Derivatives at the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), stated that the exchange is exploring the conversion of Bitcoin and Ethereum continuous futures into perpetual futures.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission had approved cryptocurrency perpetual futures for the prediction market Kalshi, opening a regulatory pathway for other registered U.S. exchanges to offer similar products. Rob Hocking did not provide a timeline for the potential conversion. (cointelegraph)
sources say prediction market platform Kalshi has disclosed it is engaging in early, informal discussions with investment banks regarding a potential IPO. A Kalshi spokesperson declined to comment.Previously, the state of Kentucky filed a lawsuit against five prediction market operators, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of running unlicensed illegal sports betting and gambling platforms. At least 17 other states have also taken prediction market operators to court. The related disputes involve the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over event contracts. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its Chairman Michael Selig in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, concerning the agency's routine approval of cryptocurrency perpetual futures. The lawsuit stems from the CFTC’s May 29 approval of a perpetual futures contract linked to the spot price of Bitcoin by prediction market platform Kalshi, and the issuance of a no-action position for a similar product on the Coinbase exchange. In the filing, CME argues that the CFTC's treatment of "futures" with expiration dates as "swaps" violates directives from the U.S. Congress and the Commodity Exchange Act, and requests the court to invalidate the relevant perpetual futures actions. CME also claims that Selig acted unilaterally without a full panel of five commissioners. A CFTC spokesperson stated that CME is waging a "legal battle" against the agency and the government’s crypto policy, calling the lawsuit "frivolous." Kraken has also announced the launch of perpetual futures trading for U.S. users via the CFTC-regulated platform Bitnomial.
According to The Globe and Mail, Canadian fintech company Wealthsimple has announced a partnership with prediction market platform Kalshi to jointly launch a new prediction market product. Previously, Robinhood also entered the Canadian market through its acquisition of WonderFi, intensifying competition in the prediction market sector in Canada. Currently, Canadian regulatory authorities are actively studying preparations related to prediction markets.
According to CoinDesk, the Kentucky Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of offering illegal sports betting services without proper licensing in the state. The complaint also alleges that the relevant platforms and their partners failed to provide gambling addiction support resources as required by state law.
: Kalshi, a U.S. compliant prediction market platform, has entered into a strategic partnership with financial compliance service provider StarCompliance. The collaboration aims to offer real-time trading monitoring services for employee Kalshi accounts at various financial institutions, directly addressing a core compliance pain point in the industry.As the popularity of prediction markets rises, financial institutions are increasingly concerned that employees might leverage internal non-public information to trade for profit on platforms like Kalshi, posing regulatory risks of insider trading. With this partnership, StarCompliance's compliance system will connect to employees' Kalshi accounts under institutional management, automatically identifying and flagging abnormal or suspicious trading activities. This will help financial institutions conduct internal risk control and regulatory compliance self-assessments.According to StarCompliance, the current system only offers real-time transaction monitoring. In the future, they plan to add a pre-trade approval module and expand service coverage to blockchain-based prediction market platforms such as Polymarket. This will comprehensively cover mainstream event trading channels and enhance institutions' full-scenario employee trading control systems. (.barrons)
the gambling industry is joining forces with labor unions to urge lawmakers to include restrictive clauses in pending cryptocurrency legislation, prohibiting prediction markets like Kalshi from offering sports betting.The American Gaming Association, along with the Indian Gaming Association, the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council of the AFL-CIO, and UNITE HERE, have jointly sent a letter expressing deep concern that prediction markets have driven the largest expansion of gambling in U.S. history over the past 18 months. The letter states that Congress should use crypto legislation to reaffirm the principle that sports betting does not fall under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and cannot be offered through prediction market platforms. (semafor)
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
: The U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Attorney General Raúl Torrez, and other officials, aiming to prevent the state from applying gambling regulations to prediction market platforms.Previously, New Mexico sued Kalshi, accusing it of offering unauthorized sports betting to state residents and allowing users below the state's legal gambling age of 21 to participate. The New Mexico Attorney General stated that legal gambling in the state can only operate under tribal-state gaming compacts or a strict state regulatory framework.The CFTC argues that platforms like Kalshi offer federally regulated derivative contracts, not gambling products under state law. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that New Mexico is attempting to impose state gambling laws on a federal derivatives exchange that falls under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction.Over the past few months, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against several states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, to establish its regulatory authority over sports prediction markets. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets that still generally permit sports-related contracts, indicating an escalating conflict between federal and state governments over the boundaries of prediction markets and sports betting.
Odaily Former SEC Chair and former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler, in an amicus brief filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, stated that the Dodd-Frank Act does not grant the CFTC the authority to regulate sports betting.This position directly contradicts the claims of current CFTC Chair Michael Selig and prediction market platform Kalshi, who argue that contracts related to sports events fall under federal regulatory scope rather than state gambling oversight.Gensler pointed out that if the Dodd-Frank Act truly preempted state authority over sports betting, it would have been major news at the time, yet no one understood it that way. He served as CFTC Chair from 2009 to 2014 and was responsible for implementing rules under the Dodd-Frank Act.The amicus brief pertains to litigation between Kalshi and the state of Ohio. The Ohio gambling regulator had demanded Kalshi cease offering sports-related event contracts to state residents, leading Kalshi to sue the state. However, a request for a preliminary injunction was denied by the court. The CFTC supports Kalshi, arguing that Ohio has overstepped its authority.Over the past year, the CFTC has continuously sought to expand its regulatory reach over prediction markets, having sued several states to establish its jurisdiction. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets, generally supporting sports-related contracts while aiming to impose stricter restrictions on betting concerning events such as terrorist attacks, assassinations, and wars.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that renowned startup accelerator Y Combinator stated that in the future, all of its portfolio companies may utilize crypto technology, particularly infrastructure like stablecoins, and this will not be limited to crypto or fintech startups.YC has previously invested in early-stage companies such as Airbnb, DoorDash, Coinbase, Stripe, Reddit, OpenAI, and Kalshi. Its latest statement primarily urges the U.S. Congress to pass the crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act."YC believes that for the crypto industry to enter a new phase, it must achieve deeper integration with traditional financial institutions such as banks and brokerages. The Clarity Act is expected to provide the regulatory foundation for this integration. The bill aims to clarify whether digital assets are securities or commodities, establish a registration pathway with the CFTC, and stipulate that customer assets belong to the customers in the event of bankruptcy.However, the prospects for the bill remain uncertain. Supporters argue that it has a bipartisan foundation, while opponents point out limited support from Democrats, the approaching midterm elections, and ethical controversies arising from Trump's direct association with the crypto industry. These factors could all increase legislative resistance.