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According to CoinDesk, volatility in the U.S. Treasury market continues to rise, while Bitcoin and U.S. stock market volatility remain at year-to-date lows. Market analysts warn that turmoil in the bond market may gradually spill over into risk assets.
Odaily News: Bitcoin is facing selling pressure, marking its third rejection near $87,000 since September 23. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that since early last week, BTC has formed a pattern of "rising local lows," but bulls have yet to gain sufficient upward momentum. The price is now approaching the apex of a triangle formed by horizontal resistance and an ascending support line. A breakout from this pattern could bring greater volatility to the market.The total crypto market capitalization has fallen back to approximately $2.93 trillion. Meanwhile, U.S. equities have shown relative strength, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a record closing high and the S&P 500 less than 0.5% away from its all-time high. However, U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, with the 10-year yield rising to 5.32%, near its highest level since 2002.Market observers believe that for BTC to break through $87,000, sufficient buying pressure is needed to absorb the persistent selling near that level. Once it holds above this threshold, it could open further upside toward its near 8-month high. (CoinDesk)
US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the correction in US Treasuries stems from changes in the global interest rate environment rather than a one-sided sell-off, and noted that the situation in Iran has temporarily masked the resilience of the US economy.
According to Chaoxiang research, UBS’s September 28, 2026 report indicates the initiation of coverage on digital asset strategies, projecting the stablecoin market capitalization to reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2031, alongside real-world payment volumes of roughly $3 trillion. Stablecoin issuers hold approximately $175 billion in short-term US Treasury-related exposures. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that a $3.5 billion inflow into stablecoins reduces the yield on 3-month US Treasuries by approximately 0.7 basis points, decreasing it by about 4 basis points over a 10-day period. Tokenization can unlock approximately $2.46 trillion in annualized repo trading volume. By 2030, AI agents may facilitate approximately $2 trillion in global C2B e-commerce, with stablecoins accounting for about $56 billion of that volume. UBS believes that as digital assets achieve mainstream adoption, their overall impact on the financial sector will range from neutral to mildly positive. Sectors such as payments and fintech, exchanges, and asset management are assessed as mildly positive, while banking remains neutral. Allocation strategies center on three core themes: stablecoins, tokenization, and agent commerce. Increasing compliance costs particularly favor large-scale operators.
According to data from Trader T, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded an overall net inflow of $66.19 million on September 29. BlackRock IBIT saw a net inflow of $51.09 million, ARK Invest ARKB registered a net inflow of $33.24 million, Bitwise BITB experienced a net outflow of $18.14 million, while other ETFs such as Fidelity FBTC and Grayscale GBTC reported zero net inflows and outflows for the day. On the same day, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a 24-year high, with Bitcoin's price hovering around $82,600.
Odaily News: Some analysts expect that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise to 6%, driven by concerns over the federal fiscal deficit, debt growth, and capital competition. Since the end of 2023, the yield has risen to 5.23%, while Bitcoin's price has roughly doubled to $86,000.If yields rise due to fiscal concerns, investors may seek alternatives to government debt, and Bitcoin could benefit; if the rise in yields is driven by the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy again, Bitcoin could come under pressure. (CoinDesk)
According to CoinDesk, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued to climb, with some analysts forecasting it will reach 6% (it last hit this level in 2000). Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, emphasized that the drivers behind the yield increase are critical: if the rise stems from concerns over fiscal deficits and term premiums, investors may shift to alternative assets such as Bitcoin, constituting a bullish development; if it stems from the Federal Reserve resuming its rate-hiking cycle, it would repeat the 2022 scenario of Bitcoin plummeting 64%. Data shows that since the end of 2023, the 10-year yield has risen by 135 basis points to 5.23%, while Bitcoin’s price simultaneously doubled to around $86,000, validating the "decoupling" narrative between Bitcoin and Treasuries amid fiscal concerns. Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, also noted that the U.S. fiscal deficit accounts for approximately 6% of GDP. Coupled with tech giants undertaking large-scale fundraising that competes with Treasuries for the same pool of capital, yields will continue to be pushed higher.
Odaily News: Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, commented on the U.S. Treasury Department's latest notice regarding Section 351 exchanges, stating that his initial interpretation is not as optimistic as that of some industry participants.Geraci believes that problems may arise if the asset portfolio transferred into an ETF differs significantly from the ETF's own investment strategy, especially in cases where the relevant assets are subsequently rapidly reduced or completely sold through in-kind redemptions. He also noted that the Treasury's guidance this time is not clear in its表述 of specific applicable boundaries, making it currently difficult to determine which operations may be permitted, and he expects further guidance to be issued in the future.
According to Chaohang Research, JPMorgan’s September 24, 2026 research report indicates that U.S. corporate financing surplus in Q2 2026 approached 2% of GDP, marking the highest level for non-crisis periods since data tracking began in 1952. Non-financial corporate surplus stood at approximately 1.5%, the highest for non-crisis periods since 1958. Global equity buybacks are projected to reach $1.7 trillion in 2026, with U.S. corporations accounting for $1.3 trillion. Bitcoin’s production cost is approximately $85,000; after trading below this threshold for 280 consecutive days, the price has finally broken through. Network hash rate and mining difficulty have decreased by roughly 19% and 15%, respectively, from their peaks last October. JPMorgan notes that cash flow growth outpaces capital expenditures, indicating that the corporate sector as a whole does not require additional financing. This financing surplus underpins share repurchases, particularly among firms outside the technology sector. AI-driven capital expenditures are crowding out other spending, keeping overall capex growth moderate, and the exuberance of the late 1990s has yet to return. Bitcoin miners are structurally shifting toward AI operations, lowering forced selling risks, though hash rate expansion has decelerated. Bond futures momentum indicators have moved into more extreme bearish zones, with standard deviation scores for the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German Bunds reverting to -1.7 and -1.5, respectively.
According to CoinDesk, bitcoin traded above $84,000 on Friday, essentially flat over the past 24 hours after briefly dipping below $84,000 on Wednesday. Most major tokens saw volatility of less than 2%, while ONDO rose 27% to around $0.54 and QNT gained 39% to near $100. Meanwhile, selling pressure in the US bond market has eased slightly, with the 10-year US Treasury yield retreating 2 basis points to 5.17% after climbing more than 20 basis points cumulatively over the previous two trading sessions. Brent crude oil fell about 1% to $105 per barrel as markets focused on reports that the US and Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz via a phased agreement. FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich stated that Bitcoin's recent pullback is more of a temporary pause within an uptrend, noting that the current upward momentum has not yet ended. Even if BTC falls further to $70,000, it could exert significant pressure on short-term traders, but he believes it remains insufficient to disrupt the broader bullish trend. Additionally, Bitcoin is approaching Friday's Deribit options expiration. The current price sits below $85,000, which is one of the strike prices with a high concentration of call open interest in this expiry batch.
According to official social media announcements, HTX Research Asset Analyst WZ will join the seventh episode of "Huobi Expert Talk" today at 19:00 (UTC+8) to share insights on the theme "From Washington to Oil Prices: A New Pricing Logic for Crypto." During the session, WZ will address topics including US crypto regulation, the US Treasury market, international oil prices, and midterm elections, examining how policy expectations, liquidity shifts, and energy prices influence crypto asset pricing. Tying in concerns relevant to retail investors, he will also explore the transmission pathways of macroeconomic events to the crypto market and highlight key signals worth tracking when gauging market movements.
Odaily News: Fintech company MoonPay will partner with asset management firm WisdomTree to expand U.S. investors' access to the WisdomTree Treasury Money Market Digital Fund (WTGXX). WisdomTree will leverage MoonPay's technology to develop an entry point for the fund, covering MoonPay's more than 35 million accounts.MoonPay plans to incorporate WTGXX, a tokenized money market fund with approximately $1.2 billion in assets under management, into its stablecoin reserve management system. WTGXX aims to maintain a net asset value of $1 per share. MoonPay launched its enterprise-facing stablecoin business in November 2025.WisdomTree has approximately $176.7 billion in assets under management, and the partnership may in the future expand to other tokenized funds in markets outside the United States. WTGXX recorded $466 million in net inflows over the past 30 days. (Cointelegraph)
According to Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin broke below the key support level of $77,100 on September 15, closing at $75,702 with a daily decline of 3.2%, marking its third consecutive closing lower after breaking through the recent range bottom. On that day, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $450.4 million, with Fidelity FBTC seeing an outflow of $214.8 million and BlackRock IBIT recording an outflow of $161.7 million, accounting for 84% of total outflows. This marks the 14th-largest single-day net outflow in 2026. The downturn was driven by multiple factors: the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance, the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 5% (for the first time since 2023), accelerated selling by short-term holders (exchange inflows surged sharply from 19,400 BTC to 33,100 BTC, of which 23,200 BTC were acquired at a loss), and foreign demand dropping to a historic low during the 20-year US Treasury auction. From a technical standpoint, BTC has fallen below the market average value of $76,500 and Strategy's average holding price of $75,412, leaving the average holder currently underwater. If the downtrend continues, key support levels below are $73,500 (cost basis for 3-6 month holders) and $71,300 (realized price for short-term holders). A rebound requires reclaiming $77,100 backed by significant spot trading volume.
In a write-up by Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, BTC ETFs recorded a net outflow of $463 million for the week ending September 14, marking the first negative reading since June's lows. ARK and Grayscale alone accounted for combined outflows of $371 million, while BlackRock remained flat. As a result, BTC fell 4.4% for the week to close at $76,838, making it the worst-performing asset, while Ethereum dipped 1.5% and altcoins collectively gained 1.0%. On the macro front, the US August CPI came in at 0.4% month-on-month (core 0.3%), exceeding the expected 0.2%, while the PPI annual rate hit 5.4%, prompting Goldman Sachs to upgrade its September rate outlook from "hold steady" to "increase." The market has now priced in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday. Meanwhile, ongoing escalation in Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude past $105/barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield reached a 20-year high. Wintermute stated that following the shift to negative ETF flows, it favors a neutral over a bullish market stance. Two key catalysts this week: ① On Tuesday, the US Senate will hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (Crypto Market Structure Act), which requires 60 votes to pass; ② On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision. While the rate hike itself is already fully priced in, subsequent hawkish commentary (particularly any signals pointing to continued tightening into Q1 2027) could exert downward pressure on the crypto market.
Odaily News: According to Gate Ventures' latest weekly report, last week's escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East combined with U.S. core inflation exceeding expectations significantly heightened global market volatility. Brent crude and WTI crude surged 8.33% and 9.36% respectively, returning above $100 per barrel; U.S. August core CPI rose 0.29% month-over-month, higher than expected, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.97%, with market-implied probability of a September rate hike rising to approximately 86%; spot gold fell 1.82% to $4,349.42 per ounce. U.S. stock indices — the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones — declined 0.80%, 0.66%, and 1.57% respectively; the crypto market weakened in tandem, with BTC and ETH dropping 4.4% and 1.5% respectively. Spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $462.7 million, while ETH ETFs recorded net inflows of $197.1 million. The fear index dropped from 71 to 57, indicating a cooling of market sentiment.On the industry front, India launched a $107 million tokenized corporate bond pilot program, further advancing institutional-grade RWA tokenization; Gemini obtained a Major Payment Institution (MPI) license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, further expanding its regulatory footprint in the Asia-Pacific region; and the Philippine central bank plans to suspend new payment system operator registrations for 12 months, tightening oversight of VASP-related payment activities.On the funding side, a total of 9 financing deals were completed last week, with disclosed total funding reaching $158.4 million, down 88% quarter-over-quarter. Overall, energy prices and inflation expectations remain the core variables driving short-term market trends, while interest in tokenized assets and institutional-grade crypto infrastructure development remains undiminished.
According to Chaowang Research, JPMorgan’s September 14, 2026 report indicates that Brent crude oil has broken through the $100 level, trading at $107.6 on September 10. Coupled with rising bond yields, global equity markets have begun to decline. JPMorgan considers this pullback an opportunity to increase equity exposure. Year-to-date, the MXWO index has risen 11%, while bond yields climbed 65 basis points over the same period. The yield increase is driven by robust economic activity and earnings upgrades, whereas long-term inflation expectations have not risen. The 5y-5y forward inflation rate has not reacted to higher oil prices, the term premium sits at a 10-year peak, and wage growth is at its slowest pace in five years. JPMorgan notes that the equity-bond correlation faces a reversal risk when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaches 5% to 5.5%; currently at roughly 4.83%, it remains below this threshold. The bank maintains an overweight stance on equities, neutral on bonds, and underweight on cash. Regionally, it is overweight in emerging markets and the eurozone, and sector-wise, overweight in materials, industrials, and consumer discretionary. It recommends leveraging oil-driven market weakness to add to stock positions.
According to documents filed by KULR with the SEC, the company sold approximately 764 BTC on the open market between August 20 and September 11 at a weighted average price of approximately $76,633, generating roughly $58.6 million in proceeds. The sale covered all of its remaining BTC, meaning KULR no longer held any Bitcoin as of the filing. The company stated that the transactions were part of ongoing treasury management operations but did not disclose the specific use of the funds.
Odaily report: According to Defimon monitoring, a suspicious proposal 54 has appeared in Ampleforth's governance system Governor Bravo, involving approximately $2.5 million in treasury funds. The incident has been classified as an access control risk and malicious governance proposal, and the related funds have not yet been transferred out. The Ampleforth timelock contract currently holds approximately 2.538 million USDC, meaning the proposal involves nearly all treasury assets. The proposer disclosed that they authored the proposal themselves and plans to vote through a delegated address holding 87,238 FORTH, approximately 0.57% of the supply, slightly above the 75,000 FORTH proposal threshold. The proposal quorum is 600,000 FORTH, valued at approximately $132,000 at FORTH's current price of $0.22.
According to BIT's weekly "On Target" report, BIT analysts identify two key market catalysts: first, U.S. debt has surpassed the psychological threshold of $40 trillion, and second, U.S. Treasury yields are approaching the critical 5.0% level. Since July 24, Bitcoin has accumulated gains of 22% and gold has risen 9.4%, confirming earlier forecasts. Macro cycle models indicate that the market is currently in the first phase of cyclical reflation, typically accompanied by a weakening U.S. dollar and rising commodity prices. Historical data indicates that during this phase: • Annualized returns for U.S. equities at approximately 29% • Annualized returns for gold at approximately 47% • Annualized returns for Bitcoin at approximately 73% Furthermore, between 2020 and 2026, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of U.S. debt has reached 8.59%, while the CAGR for M2 money supply stands at 6.02%, significantly outpacing the CPI's 4.11%. This sustained accumulation of long-term inflationary pressure further reinforces the allocation rationale for gold and Bitcoin.
Odaily News - According to the Bitfinex Alpha analysis report, August employment data has reinforced expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. The market now estimates the probability of a 25-basis-point hike on September 16 at approximately 60%. However, Bitcoin remains near $80,000, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of approximately $986.7 million last week.Data shows that US non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The manufacturing PMI rose to 54.6, indicating that the economy has not shown signs of a sharp slowdown. Nevertheless, input costs remain elevated, and inflationary pressures have shifted market policy discussions back toward rate hikes.Meanwhile, US Treasury yields continue to weigh on risk assets, with the 2-year yield climbing to 4.37% and the 30-year yield holding at a high of 5.24%. Bitfinex notes that Bitcoin has encountered resistance near $82,000 recently and remains range-bound between approximately $77,200 and $82,100.Bitfinex believes that sustained ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin supply are providing support for Bitcoin, but Fed policy expectations and elevated Treasury yields are limiting upside potential. If this week's inflation data comes in below expectations, the market may once again price in a pause in rate hikes for September; conversely, persistent inflationary pressures could further strengthen rate hike expectations. Until a breakout from the current consolidation range occurs, Bitcoin is more likely to maintain a relatively strong sideways trend rather than confirming the start of a new upward rally.