News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: Crypto trader Ansem stated in a post that some of the top traders he knows have still not turned bullish, primarily citing concerns over war, Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve's policy meetings, and the four-year cycle.Ansem believes that as the market develops, these still-cautious traders will shift their stance in Q4 and begin aggressively chasing gains.
Odaily News – In the latest weekly report, Garrett Jin, agent for the “1011 Insider Whale,” stated that despite oil prices rising to around $95 this week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking above 4.8%, and market expectations for a September Fed rate hike climbing to approximately 70%, Bitcoin has held its key support at $76,600 and has since recovered to above $77,000.Garrett noted that the $75,000 to $80,000 range has formed a substantial new cost basis, providing firmer support for the market. If Bitcoin closes above $82,500 on the daily chart and subsequently holds around $80,000 during a pullback, it would signal that the market is absorbing selling pressure and gearing up for further strength. Conversely, if the daily close falls below $76,600—accompanied by weakness in at least two of the following metrics: ETF flows, Coinbase premium, and 7-day net realized profit/loss—it would constitute a clearer downside warning.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion in August, but September opened with two-way flows, recording net outflows of around $237 million on Tuesday. Garrett believes that Bitcoin holding key support amid heightened macro rate pressures suggests recent spot demand is not entirely driven by short-squeeze dynamics. He maintains a constructive outlook for Bitcoin's performance toward year-end, though he notes that future trajectory will depend on whether U.S. Treasury yields can halt their sustained upward trend.
According to CoinDesk, as the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note climbed 58 basis points year-to-date to 4.81%, the U.S. Dollar Index rose merely 0.9% to 99.22, signaling the breakdown of the traditional "higher yields drive a stronger dollar" logic. Japan's government bond yields surged 90 basis points this year, yet the yen fell to a 40-year low, and Germany's 10-year yield rose 45 basis points concurrently without the euro showing significant strength. Analysts note that markets may have begun interpreting rising yields as a signal of fiscal strain rather than fiscal robustness. This logical shift poses a potential tailwind for Bitcoin — amidst expectations of government debt monetization and currency devaluation, hard assets with inelastic supply, such as Bitcoin and gold, may attract safe-haven capital inflows.
Odaily News, glassnode report: The short squeeze in mid-August drove Bitcoin's rebound, pushing it above $80,000 on August 27. However, the price subsequently encountered resistance in the long-term supply zone above, retreating to around $76,000 and triggering a series of long liquidations. Currently, the $83,000-$86,000 range has accumulated a large number of potential short liquidation positions, while the $60,000-$63,000 zone below holds undigested long liquidation clusters, leaving Bitcoin sandwiched between the two.On-chain data shows that when Bitcoin traded near $78,000 in May this year, approximately 65% of the supply was in profit. When the price returned to the same level at the end of August, that proportion had risen to 68%. The summer redistribution of coins has pushed short-term holders' cost basis to around $71,000, and at this same price level, more profitable coins are now activated, increasing potential selling pressure. Combining cost basis and coin distribution, $62,000-$65,000 serves as an accumulation support zone, while $83,000-$86,000 represents a concentrated supply zone for long-term holders.During the rebound, the 7-day average net inflow for US spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked at $290 million per day, but secondary market daily trading volume remained at around $3 billion, significantly lower than the previous expansion phase. Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury briefly fell to 4.6% following the Treasury's buyback announcement on August 19, but returned to 4.8% in just 8 trading days, hitting a new cycle high.In the options market, short-term optimism has cooled while long-term options demand persists. Open interest for Deribit and IBIT options expiring on September 25 stands at approximately $14 billion, with a substantial portion of positions concentrated above $80,000, which could serve as an important volatility and positioning anchor in the coming weeks. Until the supply above $83,000-$86,000 is absorbed, Bitcoin will continue to trade in a range, with $62,000-$65,000 serving as the primary downside reference zone.
Odaily News: Wintermute posted on X that the crypto market has rebounded over the past two weeks, with ETF inflows turning positive and stablecoin issuance stabilizing. However, to usher in a full new cycle, the market still needs new sources of capital. Historically, VC and ICO funding in 2017-2018, stablecoins in 2020-2021, and ETFs and digital asset treasury companies in 2024-2025 have all accelerated bull market cycles. RWA could become the next major liquidity channel. Data shows that stablecoin supply grew by over $120 billion within a single year; ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $63 billion, while digital asset treasury companies accumulated over $115 billion in holdings.In comparison, RWA attracted approximately $16 billion in capital over the past 12 months—only about one-tenth of the peak scale seen from ETFs and treasury companies in the previous cycle. However, the value of on-chain tokenized assets has roughly doubled within a year to over $30 billion, and this growth continued even during periods of stablecoin supply contraction.Wintermute believes that RWA capital initially flows into traditional assets such as Apple stock and U.S. Treasury funds, rather than directly into crypto assets. But once these funds enter the blockchain, the friction involved in rotating toward Bitcoin, altcoins, and DeFi is expected to decrease significantly. As the regulatory framework gradually becomes clearer and tokenized Treasuries and funds begin gaining acceptance as collateral on trading platforms and within DeFi, RWA could drive a market cycle that unfolds at a more moderate pace and lasts longer.
Odaily News, according to reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent recently urged Japan to raise interest rates to curb the continued depreciation of the yen. Analysts believe this highlights that traditional monetary policy is susceptible to government and external influences. In contrast, Bitcoin's monetary policy is preset by code, with new coin issuance following a fixed schedule and halving approximately every four years, offering greater predictability. In the short term, Bitcoin still finds it difficult to shake off shocks from traditional financial markets. If Japan's rate hike drives a rapid appreciation of the yen, low-interest yen financing trades accumulated over the long term could be unwound, potentially triggering sell-offs in stocks, bonds, and crypto assets. In August 2024, the Bank of Japan's rate hike strengthened the yen and put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin. On the technical front, BTC's 50-day moving average has been rising steadily and is close to crossing above the 200-day moving average, potentially forming a "golden cross." Analysts note that moving averages are lagging indicators, and the historical predictive performance of the golden cross as a standalone indicator has been unstable.
According to The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) podcast, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that Tether’s stablecoin technology enables decentralized ownership of U.S. Treasuries. Approximately 650 million users worldwide currently hold these assets indirectly, making a simultaneous collective dump highly unlikely. This fundamentally reduces the systemic risk of U.S. Treasuries being targeted in a coordinated sell-off by a single sovereign state. He also criticized traditional finance for failing to propose a similar solution over the past several decades and emphasized that concentrated U.S. Treasury holdings by adversarial nations carry significant risks.
Odaily News: Arthur Hayes stated that investors should prepare to buy Bitcoin and expects Bitcoin to perform well in the coming years. He believes that if the U.S. continues to expand its money supply, Bitcoin's price could ultimately rise to $250,000.Bitcoin has risen about 20% since mid-August, adding $300 billion to its total market capitalization within hours. Scott Bessent previously pledged to support the bond market, and this week it was noted that the Treasury may tap nearly $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account to fund bond purchases.Gadi Chait, investment manager at Xapo Bank, said Bitcoin rose about 23% last week, marking its largest weekly gain since March 2023. During the same period, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $1.9 billion, with record short liquidations further fueling the rally. (Forbes Digital Assets)
Odaily News Bitcoin has rebounded strongly recently. Analysts believe that record-breaking short squeeze activity, along with policy signals from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, may be pushing the market into a new phase of bull market cycle adjustment.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen approximately 23% over the past week, marking its largest weekly gain since the post-U.S. election rally in November 2024. Crypto market trading activity has also recovered in tandem, with spot and perpetual contract trading volume surging 188%. CME Bitcoin futures volume rose 152%, and the annualized futures basis climbed to 11.1%—the highest level since January 2025. Additionally, Bitcoin ETF products recorded net inflows of approximately 31,740 BTC over the week, the strongest capital inflow since the market peak in October 2025.Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at crypto research firm K33 Research, stated that the early phase of this rally was primarily driven by short covering. On August 19, Bitcoin short positions saw a single-day liquidation scale of $1.37 billion, a record high, followed by another $739 million in short liquidations on August 21. The massive short squeeze pushed open interest in perpetual contracts down to 284,000 BTC, the lowest level since May, while market funding rates also returned to neutral.On the macro front, policy signals from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding increased long-term Treasury buybacks are also viewed by analysts as a market catalyst. K33 believes that the Treasury buyback program could lower long-term interest rates and boost demand for scarce assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's correlation with gold has risen, with the 90-day correlation coefficient reaching 0.52—the highest since October 2020—while its correlation with the Nasdaq index has declined to 0.38, a one-year low.Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at crypto investment firm Bitwise Asset Management, believes that Bessent's recent remarks on sanctions against Iran's financial network have further strengthened Bitcoin's investment thesis: as the global financial system becomes increasingly influenced by geopolitics, the value of assets that are decentralized and do not rely on any single nation's financial system may appreciate further. (The Block)
According to Odaily, the Iranian rial hit a record low this week, with the open market exchange rate falling to approximately 2.02 million rials per US dollar on August 24, compared to around 1.53 million rials in the first quarter. During the same period, the US government launched "Operation Economic Exodus," adding more than 60 entities to the Treasury Department's blacklist and, for the first time, designating digital assets as a sanctionable category.State-controlled farms linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) control approximately 65% of Iran's Bitcoin mining capacity. Iranian miners have accounted for roughly 3% to 7% of global Bitcoin hashrate since 2019, with the mined Bitcoin valued at an estimated $1.35 billion to $3.15 billion at various stages.Iran legalized Bitcoin mining in 2019, allowing licensed operators to use industrial electricity at approximately $0.004 per kilowatt-hour and sell the mined tokens to the Central Bank of Iran. Chainalysis estimates that IRGC-affiliated wallets received over $3 billion in Q4 2025; Elliptic states that the Central Bank of Iran holds at least $507 million in USDT.The US Treasury sanctioned Nobitex, Wallex, Bitpin, and Ramzinex in June. Nobitex had processed more than half of Iran's digital asset inflows; in April, the US Treasury seized nearly $500 million in Iran-linked crypto assets. (Bitcoin.com News)
US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced efforts to apply economic pressure on Iran but did not specify the concrete implementation pathway, framing it merely as a warning and urging countries to cut off ties with Iran. Multiple analysts and research institutions pointed out that the policy lacks substantive action, appearing more like political theater.
According to QCP, BTC surged over 20% last week, peaking around $79,500 on Friday to mark its strongest weekly performance since March 2024. QCP noted that this rally was initially driven by large-scale short covering, followed by expanded demand in the spot market. US spot BTC and ETH ETFs posted combined net inflows of approximately $2.6 billion last week, the highest since October 2025. Among them, BTC ETFs recorded net inflows of roughly $1.92 billion and ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $697 million, reversing the previous week's combined net outflows of approximately $392 million.
Odaily News - Standard Chartered's global head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, stated that the bank's year-end Bitcoin price target of $100,000 may be too conservative. Bitcoin rose to $79,500 on August 21, its highest level since May; he predicts the price could climb from this level to $126,000, a gain of 58%.Kendrick noted that during the rally from August 19 to 21, Bitcoin short liquidations totaled nearly $1.44 billion, the largest on record in Coinglass data since June 2021. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $1.92 billion over five consecutive trading days.The U.S. Treasury announced on August 19 that it would expand its long-term Treasury buyback program, raising the maximum size of a single operation from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. Standard Chartered lowered its Bitcoin year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000 in February this year, while outlining a long-term trajectory of $500,000 for Bitcoin and $40,000 for Ethereum by 2030. (Bitcoin.com News)
Odaily News A anonymous whale sold a total of 7,700 Bitcoin between August 19 and 22, worth approximately $577 million at current prices. Among these, a single transaction earlier today sold 2,700 Bitcoin, worth approximately $212 million.Bitcoin rose to $79,500 this week before pulling back to around $77,000, posting a weekly gain of over 20% and approaching $80,000. This sale comes after large holders accumulated approximately 43,000 Bitcoin over the past 60 days.Another whale sold 7,513 Bitcoin over a three-week period ending August 9, worth approximately $487 million. The U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9, the scale of its long-term Treasury buyback operations will increase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. (Bitcoin.com News)
According to Odaily, Bitcoin recently broke through a key price level, sparking discussions about whether a new bull market has begun. Some analysts believe that rapid gains, concentrated short covering, and technical breakouts are typical signals of a market bottom reversal, but others warn that the macroeconomic environment and capital inflows remain key factors in determining the sustainability of the trend.Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that Bitcoin's recent rally is very similar to historical bottoming phases, which are typically accompanied by short squeezes, sharp single-day gains, and breakouts above key technical resistance levels, followed by investors who missed the move re-entering the market. He believes that the probability of a significant Bitcoin pullback is currently decreasing, and market FOMO sentiment may further intensify.However, Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, remains cautious. He noted that without sustained spot ETF inflows and clear signals of interest rate cuts, it is still too early to confirm the bear market is over, and Bitcoin may lose upward momentum near resistance levels.Analysts point out that the current rally is driven by multiple factors, including the U.S. Treasury's expansion of its bond buyback program, declining long-term yields, and improved sentiment toward risk assets. Previously, Bitcoin had been consolidating in the $64,000 to $66,000 range, accumulating significant short positions in the market. The breakout triggered cascading liquidations in the derivatives market, accelerating the price surge.Tobias Bauer, co-founder of TBV, noted that Bitcoin futures trading volume on Binance reached $1.26 billion within a minute—361 times the normal level—while funding rates rose to exchange limits, indicating crowded leveraged longs in the market and rising costs for chasing the rally. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News比特币 rose to its highest level since May before the US market opened on Friday, briefly touching $79,400 during trading before hovering around $78,000, just one step away from the key resistance level of $80,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, boosting market risk appetite.James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that this rally is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than factors within the crypto market itself, noting that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields. Previously, US inflation data came in below expectations, employment data weakened, and the US Treasury announced measures to push down long-term Treasury yields, all of which drove risk assets higher.Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is an important demarcation line for Bitcoin at present. To form an effective breakout, the market needs further confirmation that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting toward easing, with related signals potentially released at next week's Jackson Hole symposium.However, he also cautioned that if inflation remains persistently high or the dollar weakens, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Additionally, the scale of accumulation by large holders remains relatively limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support a sustained breakout. Going forward, US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows and macroeconomic data performance will serve as key indicators for judging the sustainability of the trend. (CoinDesk)
QCP reported that Bitcoin's rise is linked to declining US long-term Treasury yields and a weakening US dollar, following the US Treasury's announcement to expand the scale of its long-term Treasury liquidity support repurchase agreements starting September 9. Markets will now focus on the US July PCE data on August 26, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium from August 27 to 29, and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on September 15–16. QCP believes that the key factor for the current cryptocurrency market is whether spot demand can sustain itself following initial position adjustments, particularly amid the backdrop of rising leverage.
Odaily News, Garrett Jin, proxy for the "BTC OG Insider Whale," analyzed that Bitcoin's latest breakout above $70,000 was driven by multiple bullish factors, including the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buybacks, the SEC's proposed crypto asset regulatory framework, and the White House crypto summit. The current price has entered a dense overhead supply zone ranging from the mid-$60,000s to the low $80,000s, with the first resistance layer already showing signs of weakening.Garrett Jin pointed out that the significant accumulation of new cost basis in the mid-$60,000 area over the past two months has provided underlying support for this breakout. While the short-squeeze triggered by short liquidations could temporarily push Bitcoin above $80,000 in the near term, the $80,000 to $82,500 range is a critical resistance zone to watch, and the short-squeeze momentum is unlikely to persist. If the market can effectively absorb supply below $80,000 before a breakout, it would be more conducive to a healthier subsequent trend.On the same day, SK Hynix announced South Korea's largest-ever stock buyback and cancellation plan, committing to return at least 50% of its projected free cash flow through 2027 to shareholders. Its shares surged over 10% at one point, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker on South Korea's KOSPI index. Analysts believe this move could alleviate market concerns over declining risk appetite for Korean semiconductor stocks, but it cannot alter the cyclical trajectory of the memory chip industry itself.
Odaily News - Bitcoin extended its gains on Wednesday and climbed above $72,000 on Thursday, reaching its highest level since June 1.Market analysis suggests that the recent rally is primarily driven by easing pressure in the U.S. Treasury market. The White House's earlier signals of support for Treasury market stability alleviated investor concerns over bond market volatility. However, the longer-term trajectory still depends on changes in Federal Reserve liquidity policy.Analyst Pedro Fontes noted that if the world's largest debt market requires policy support to maintain stable operation, it would further strengthen demand for assets that are scarce, predictable, and not reliant on government debt expansion—characteristics that Bitcoin aligns with. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.88% to 98.77 yesterday, hitting a fresh low since May.Strive Founder and CEO Matt Cole stated that the dollar index has been in a long-term "structural downtrend," and a weaker dollar could create a more favorable investment environment for assets like Bitcoin. Markets will continue to monitor the White House's further remarks on the bond market, shifts in geopolitical conditions, and U.S. initial jobless claims data today, as these factors could influence Treasury yields and market liquidity expectations. (CoinDesk)
According to Cointelegraph, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick pointed out in the latest client report that the U.S. Treasury announced the scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury bond buybacks will be at least doubled from $2 billion per operation to $4 billion, with an execution period from September 9 to November 4. This policy drove long-term U.S. Treasury yields down significantly, effectively alleviating selling pressure in the bond market. Kendrick stated that such government liquidity interventions have historically been bullish for Bitcoin, and coupled with its fixed supply attribute, BTC is expected to hit $100,000 before the end of the year. Technically, he views $65,500 as a key support level; once effectively broken above, it can confirm that the bottom of this cycle has appeared.