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Odaily News – Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin (BTC) could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2026 as the U.S. Treasury expands liquidity support for the long-term bond market.In a recent client report, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin's current key technical resistance level is $65,500. If the price breaks through this level, it could signal that the cyclical low for this market cycle has already formed. He suggested investors begin positioning for a Bitcoin rally to $100,000 by year-end. Kendrick stated that beyond the four-year cycle pattern for Bitcoin, which suggests the market may be nearing a bottom, the U.S. Treasury's recent announcement to expand long-term bond buybacks is also a significant catalyst.The U.S. Treasury plans to raise the cap on buyback operations for 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The expanded program is scheduled to be implemented from September 9 to November 4. Following the announcement, yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries notably declined, easing the pressure that the significant sell-off in the bond market had placed on financial markets.Kendrick believes the Treasury's expanded bond buybacks represent a "favorable environment for Bitcoin," as Bitcoin has previously benefited multiple times from government liquidity interventions, while its fixed supply mechanism gives it properties that hedge against currency debasement. In the market, Bitcoin rose over 6% on Wednesday, briefly approaching $69,000, marking its highest level since early June. Kendrick has previously been repeatedly bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, arguing that as global fiscal pressures increase and monetary policy trends toward easing, Bitcoin may enter a new long-term upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Yu Jin, influenced by news of the U.S. increasing the scale of long-term Treasury bond repurchases, both the U.S. stock pre-market and the crypto market saw gains. He pointed out that a Bitcoin short whale who was recently liquidated is again approaching the liquidation threshold. The Bitcoin short positions held are valued at approximately $93.24 million, with a liquidation price of $65,045, about $200 away from the current price.
Odaily News, U.S. Treasury Department data shows that foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to $9.299 trillion in June from $9.371 trillion in May, a decrease of approximately $72 billion month-over-month, mainly driven by reductions from Japan, the UK, and China, but still up 2.3% year-over-year.Among them, Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell 2.3% month-over-month to $1.116 trillion in June, remaining the largest overseas holder; the UK's holdings fell 1% to $939.9 billion. In June, net capital inflows on a transaction basis into U.S. Treasuries were only $6.8 billion, down from $56.6 billion in May. (Reuters)
: Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Kaplan said the Fed's decision not to raise interest rates in July was "absolutely" correct, urging policymakers to keep an open mind ahead of September, citing the complex factors affecting inflation and warning that rigid forward guidance could be counterproductive. Kaplan noted: "If we see meaningful improvement, I might be willing to continue holding, but I want to make full use of every moment before September to assess the situation, avoiding rigidity or preconceived notions."Kaplan believes the forces currently at play include: inflationary pressures from AI infrastructure build-out, tariffs, labor constraints, and surging oil prices; meanwhile, AI applications are working in the opposite direction, accelerating the trend of disinflation. He suggested that Warsh should use his speech at this month's Jackson Hole symposium to briefly explain the Fed's reasoning for holding steady in July, rather than delivering a purely "philosophical" address. Kaplan said he is more concerned about the long end of U.S. Treasury yields than the federal funds rate itself. He noted that the rebound in long-term government bond yields globally reflects structural supply-demand imbalances driven by persistent wide fiscal deficits, rather than Fed policy. (Jin Shi)
Odaily News: Gurinder Singh Josan, Co-Chair of the UK Parliamentary Crypto and Digital Assets All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG), along with Lord Vaizey of Didcot, has written to the CEOs of all major UK banks, demanding clarification on how they treat crypto and digital asset businesses. The letter raises six questions covering banks' current policies, whether they provide services to crypto businesses, related transaction restrictions and the factors determining them, and asks whether practices will be adjusted once the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulatory regime takes effect. The group noted that many crypto businesses struggle to open bank accounts in the UK, with some banks also restricting related payments. The letter stems from a parliamentary inquiry into banking service access launched on July 21, with written submissions open until August 31. A January survey by the UK Cryptoasset Business Council estimated that banks block or delay around 40% of transactions to crypto exchanges. HSBC, NatWest, Monzo, and Nationwide cap monthly transfers to crypto exchanges at between £5,000 and £10,000, while Starling and Chase UK prohibit such transfers altogether. UK Treasury Economic Secretary Lucy Rigby stated that the government does not want FCA-licensed firms to face banking restrictions solely because of their industry; the FCA completed related rules in June, with the regime becoming mandatory in October 2027. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: South Africa's National Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) have released draft rules on cross-border transfers of crypto assets. Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of crypto exchange VALR, stated that without significant amendments to key provisions, the framework could harm the country's digital asset industry and drive capital offshore. The draft rules allow individual residents to transfer crypto assets abroad within existing foreign exchange limits but restrict corporates from conducting cross-border crypto transactions, while also classifying certain inbound transfers from private, non-custodial self-hosted wallets as unacceptable transfers for local crypto asset service providers (CASPs). Ehsani believes this could push both businesses and retail users toward overseas platforms. Ehsani noted that prohibiting regulated entities from handling legitimate corporate transactions—particularly cross-border stablecoin payments—could drive such activity underground or offshore, ultimately undermining the transaction visibility and monitoring capabilities regulators aim to achieve. South Africa's National Treasury and SARB have opened a public consultation period, with feedback due by September 30.
Odaily News: U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, significantly missing market expectations. Although seasonal factors and the fading of the World Cup dividend disrupted the data, this still notably weakens the Federal Reserve's momentum for a September rate hike, shifting market focus to next week's CPI.Despite the "dismal" surface data, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon is actually attributed to a cumulative 0.7 percentage point decline in the labor force participation rate since the beginning of the year.Analysts are divided in their interpretation of this "terrible" report. Thomas Ryan, Senior Economist at Capital Economics, stated bluntly that although the current weakness has not yet shown up in broader indicators, it is sufficient to prompt Fed officials to reassess the health of the labor market and reduce their willingness to further tighten monetary policy in the near term.In the face of this report, which Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, called "extremely terrible," the capital markets demonstrated typical contrarian logic. As traders bet that the rate hike process would stop here, U.S. stock futures rose accordingly, and Treasury yields collectively declined. According to data from CME Group's tools, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike has rapidly fallen from 55% on Thursday to 44%.
Odaily News: Bitcoin's volatility has recently neared zero, but market risks have not been resolved. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have not seen any outflows in the first week of August, with cumulative net inflows of approximately $754 million. However, Bitcoin's price remains around $64,700, while the options market is heavily focused on downside protection near $62,000 and $63,000.Market signals are showing divergence: on one hand, demand for spot ETFs has picked up again; on the other hand, derivatives traders are positioning in advance for a potential pullback, especially ahead of the latest U.S. employment data release.However, looking at the overall positioning structure, the market still leans bullish. Bitcoin call options account for approximately 60.7% of total open interest, indicating that investors' long-term expectations remain positive, with recent trading more concentrated on short-term risk hedging. Meanwhile, the cost of volatility protection remains low. Deribit's DVOL index, which reflects Bitcoin's expected volatility over the next 30 days, is currently around 35—a significant drop from the high of 90 earlier this year—suggesting that the market sees limited potential for major swings in the short term.That said, U.S. macroeconomic data could break this balance. The market expects U.S. non-farm payrolls for July to increase by approximately 97,500, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2%. If the employment data comes in stronger than expected, it could push U.S. Treasury yields higher and reinforce expectations of Fed rate hikes; if the data is weak, it could push yields down, but also heighten concerns about slowing economic growth.Currently, the Bitcoin market presents a pattern of "ETF inflows underpinning spot prices while the options market hedges against downside." Potential risks remain a concern in a low-volatility environment. With low market participation and insufficient liquidity, even small changes in supply or demand could trigger sharp swings in asset prices. (CoinDesk)
According to CryptoQuant on-chain data, total institutional BTC holdings, including trusts, ETFs, and closed-end funds, have decreased from 1.33 million BTC three months ago to 1.2 million BTC, a decline of approximately 10%. Meanwhile, the corporate Bitcoin treasury model is also facing pressure. Novaque Research analysts pointed out that the market cap of multiple Bitcoin treasury companies has currently fallen below the net asset value (NAV) of their BTC holdings, and the previous positive cycle mechanism of "stock price premium → financing to buy BTC → strengthening premium" has significantly weakened. The listed company with the largest holdings, Strategy, even sold 1,638 BTC last week.
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, stating that the cumulative trading volume of the Trump family-linked stablecoin USD1 on Binance has surpassed $50 billion. Data shows that since its launch over a year ago, USD1 has experienced rapid growth in trading scale. The stablecoin was launched by World Liberty Financial in March 2025, a project co-founded with the participation of the Trump family. USD1 is primarily backed by U.S. dollars and short-term U.S. Treasury assets, and adopts an institutional-oriented compliance framework. Currently, the market cap of USD1 has exceeded $4 billion.
According to official announcements, Ondo's tokenized U.S. Treasury yield note USDY (U.S. Dollar Yield Token) has now officially launched on BNB Chain, supporting instant minting/redemption and cross-chain bridging functionality. As a leading permissionless tokenized U.S. Treasury product, USDY's launch on BNB Chain, one of the largest and most active public chain ecosystems globally, marks the first time institutional-grade yield assets are accessible directly without permission. This launch is a significant step in USDY's multi-chain expansion, bringing yield-bearing USD asset exposure to millions of users and AI agents within BNB Chain's deep DeFi ecosystem, and achieving a dual improvement in capital efficiency and transaction speed through instant minting and redemption mechanisms. Users no longer need to bridge from other chains to directly hold yield assets backed by U.S. Treasuries within the BNB Chain native environment; for developers, USDY can also serve as high-quality collateral in on-chain lending, trading, and liquidity protocols, seamlessly integrating with BNB Chain native applications.
According to the market weekly report released by market maker Wintermute (@wintermute_t), the macro and crypto markets experienced multiple shocks over the past week: On the macro level, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with a 9-3 vote. Officials Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan rarely voted together to support a 25bp rate hike, marking dissent at the second meeting since Chairman Warsh took office. The 30-year US Treasury yield once touched 5.24%, hitting a new high since July 2007, while the 10-year yielded 4.67%. The yield curve bear-steepened, indicating market doubts about the Federal Reserve's inflation credibility. On the stock market level, AI leveraged fund Situational Awareness (under Leopold Aschenbrenner) encountered margin calls due to leverage as high as 400%. Its size plummeted from $45 billion in early July to about $10 billion, forced to sell all public positions to Citadel at a discount. Long positions in AI infrastructure such as SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply, partially explaining the reason for the continuous decline in chip stocks in July. On the crypto level, BTC fell 2.84% weekly and ETH fell 3.63% weekly, but Wintermute believes major sellers are nearly exhausted, and the painful trade direction has turned upward. ETH has outperformed BTC for two consecutive months,
Odaily News, July saw the U.S. manufacturing PMI rise to 55.6, the highest since 2022, with both production and employment recovering. However, strong demand and geopolitical inflation concerns have roiled the bond market, with Bank of America warning that the Federal Reserve is facing a credibility test. The hot manufacturing performance, coupled with geopolitical inflation threats, has sent U.S. Treasury markets into sharp turbulence. Long-dated Treasuries have recently faced heavy selling, with yields briefly surging to near two-decade highs.Mark Cabana, Head of U.S. Rates Strategy at Bank of America, commented on this, calling the bond market's violent swings a "textbook inflation credibility shock."Cabana noted that the core driver of the market turmoil is not the data itself, but the Fed's lack of policy communication. He specifically pointed to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's performance at a recent press conference, arguing that Warsh failed to clearly articulate how the Fed would achieve its 2% inflation target."Standing firm on the inflation target is one thing, but if you don't tell the market the specific path, investors won't buy it," Cabana said bluntly in a Bloomberg TV interview. "The bond market cannot be fooled; it sees through all appearances." (Jin10)
According to an official media announcement, the South African National Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) jointly released the "Draft Manual on Cross-Border Crypto Asset Activities" on August 3, 2026, which is now open for public consultation with a deadline of September 30, 2026. The manual is implemented in conjunction with the previously released "Draft Regulations on Capital Flow Management 2026," aiming to strengthen supervision over cross-border financial activities and prevent risks related to illicit financial flows associated with crypto assets. The manual clarifies the trigger points for cross-border crypto asset transactions—when crypto assets are transferred between a domestic authorized CASP and a foreign CASP, or from a domestic authorized CASP to a non-custodial wallet, it constitutes cross-border capital inflow or outflow and must be reported to the Financial Supervision Department (FinSurv). It is worth noting that at this stage, only individuals are allowed to conduct crypto asset outflow operations through authorized CASPs within the single discretionary allowance or foreign capital allowance; South African entities are temporarily not allowed to conduct related cross-border operations. In addition, the manual currently does not distinguish between different types of crypto assets, nor does it list crypto assets as official South African currency.
Odaily News: Major cryptocurrencies moved lower on Monday, with Bitcoin briefly falling to around $62,800 and Ether dropping to $1,858. Although expectations related to the geopolitical situation had improved earlier, the market failed to sustain a rebound. Following the expansion of the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability, approximately 1,367 BTC flowed out of roughly 4,585 addresses, valued at nearly $89 million, occurring across three rounds of attacks. The market's weakness stood in contrast to falling crude oil prices, a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, and gains in stock index futures.
Odaily News On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that the yield on Bitcoin's three-month futures basis has remained below the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note since February this year, a trend that has now persisted for several months.Glassnode pointed out that there has only been one similar instance in history where the duration of this condition came close to the current one, namely the period from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately corresponded to the low point of the previous market cycle.The firm stated that the prolonged slump in the futures basis not only reflects weak market demand for leverage but also directly impacts the overall depth and trading volume of the market.Analysts believe that the futures basis is typically used to gauge market risk appetite and demand for arbitrage funds. When the basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, it implies that investors are earning insufficient additional returns for the risk taken by holding Bitcoin futures, which may lead to reduced capital inflows into the futures market, thereby affecting liquidity and trading activity.
According to The Block, bipartisan Senators Thom Tillis (Republican) and Ruben Gallego (Democrat) submitted a new ethics compromise proposal to the White House on Thursday morning local time, attempting to break the deadlock in advancing the Clarity Act cryptocurrency legislation. Currently, there is less than a week left until the Senate recesses on August 7, but the bill still has not obtained the 60 votes required for passage. Democrats insist on adding stricter ethics provisions to constrain the Trump family's crypto interests, including the Meme coins they issued and the World Liberty Financial project in which the family participates, while some Republican senators have objections to the stablecoin interest provisions, worrying that it will divert deposits from traditional banks to the crypto sector. Although the draft leaked last week prohibited public officials and their spouses from issuing digital assets, it did not cover other family members, and included a "sunset clause" expiring in January 2029, which critics believe essentially nullifies the entire ethics provision. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent subsequently blamed the Democrats on X, stating that they "chose political gaming on the verge of a major victory". The Crypto Innovation Committee (CCI) warned that if the bill fails to pass, the US will hand over its global leadership position in the field of crypto regulation.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out in a weekly report analysis that the US 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to approximately 4.7%, approaching the upper limit of the range over the past five years. The high-interest rate environment is tightening financial conditions, raising financing costs and asset discount rates, and increasing pressure on risk assets.
Odaily News As Bitcoin prices have experienced a significant correction, publicly listed companies that had accumulated large BTC holdings are facing multiple challenges, including falling stock prices, debt pressures, and a deteriorating financing environment. Some of these companies are now starting to sell Bitcoin, repay debts, and even pivot towards artificial intelligence (AI) data center operations.Strategy pioneered the "Digital Asset Treasury (DAT)" model, continuously purchasing Bitcoin through financing and borrowing, inspiring a wave of other listed companies to follow suit. However, as the BTC price has fallen approximately 50% from its peak of around $126,000 in October 2025, the stock prices of related companies have also shrunk significantly, forcing them to reassess their BTC accumulation strategies.This week, shareholders of London-listed company Satsuma Technology approved the liquidation of all 668 BTC, returning capital to shareholders, while proceeding with delisting. Another London-listed company, The Smarter Web Company, sold 178 BTC to repay its convertible debt.Additionally, Sequans Communications has sold 1,025 BTC and further sold nearly 80% of its remaining holdings to repay convertible bonds. The company stated it will not continue purchasing Bitcoin in the future and plans to sell the remaining approximately 658 BTC.Nakamoto's stock price has fallen approximately 99% since its SPAC listing in May 2025. The company recently sold about 284 BTC, raising approximately $20 million for working capital. Of its remaining approximately 5,342 BTC, nearly 70% has been pledged as collateral for loans from Kraken, which market observers believe poses a potential risk event.Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining companies are also adjusting their strategies. Companies like Bitdeer Technologies and MARA Holdings are selling portions of their BTC to repurchase shares, repay debts, and redirect energy resources and computing infrastructure towards AI data center operations.Other companies selling BTC include Empery Digital. Data shows that Strategy has recently sold approximately 3,620 BTC and has authorized further asset sales to maintain its U.S. dollar reserves.However, Strategy remains the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with holdings exceeding 840,000 BTC. The company's CEO, Michael Saylor, stated that while it may sell some Bitcoin in the future to pay dividends, this does not mean the company is exiting its Bitcoin investment.Beyond asset adjustments, management and capital operations at some Bitcoin treasury companies are also changing. Jack Mallers has stepped down as CEO; and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR), affiliated with Adam Back, failed to complete a proposed merger due to the deteriorating market environment.Analysts believe that with rising financing costs and increased BTC price volatility, the "borrowing to buy Bitcoin" treasury model is undergoing a reshuffle. Some companies are shifting from simply hoard
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Yu Jin (@EmberCN), BTC treasury company @KULRTech transferred another 145.8 BTC (approximately $9.45 million) to Coinbase Prime 5 hours ago. After multiple position reductions over nearly 3 months, its originally held 1,021 BTC (approximately $101 million) now remains at only 100 BTC (approximately $6.47 million). The company's average BTC reserve price was $98,923, while the average selling price was only $74,368, resulting in an accumulated loss of approximately $22.62 million. Currently, its official website's Bitcoin treasury page has been taken offline, and its official social media has not mentioned Bitcoin-related content for a long time; it is widely believed that the company has abandoned its Bitcoin treasury strategy.