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CLARITY Act's probability of passage in 2026 drops to 30%, US Senator Jon Husted expresses support

on July 28 that U.S. Senator Jon Husted publicly supported the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, stating that if the United States wants to maintain its leading position in the digital asset field, it needs a clear, enforceable regulatory framework that supports innovation and employment.The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first comprehensive federal framework for crypto regulation in the U.S., dividing jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The bill classifies tokens into three categories, granting the CFTC exclusive regulatory authority over the spot market for digital commodities, while the SEC continues to oversee assets that still resemble securities.Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 from 50% to 30%. Alex Thorn, the firm's Head of Research, stated that the 60-vote threshold in the Senate is the main obstacle, and supporters may not yet hold a simple majority.The revised version of the bill proposes to prohibit the President, Vice President, members of Congress, federal judges, and their spouses from receiving compensation through the issuance or sponsorship of digital assets during their term in office until January 2029. It also requires relevant officials to sell their cryptocurrency holdings or place them in a blind trust.

Kalshi Settles $3.32 Million Spotify Prediction Market After Fraudulent Streaming Warning

Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.

Kalshi, Polymarket Granted Federal Court Preliminary Injunction, Minnesota Prediction Market Ban Suspended

According to CoinDesk, U.S. District Court Judge for the District of Minnesota Katherine Menendez ruled on July 28 local time that the Minnesota state law criminalizing the operation of prediction markets likely violates the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and granted a preliminary injunction to Kalshi, Polymarket, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to suspend the enforcement of the state law. The judge held that prediction market contracts structurally fall under 'swap' products within the CFTC's regulatory scope, federal law takes precedence over state law, and the three plaintiffs are 'likely to prevail in the formal trial'. Additionally, the judge noted that failing to suspend the enforcement of the law would cause 'irreparable harm' to Kalshi and Polymarket. The preliminary injunction will remain in effect until the final judgment of the case is issued.

Kalshi, Polymarket Obtain Temporary Halt of Minnesota Prediction Market Ban

U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez for the District of Minnesota ruled on Monday that a recently enacted Minnesota state law banning prediction markets may conflict with the Commodity Exchange Act. She granted a preliminary injunction in favor of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC had sued the state of Minnesota earlier this year after the state passed a law classifying the operation of prediction markets within the state as a criminal offense. The three parties argued that prediction market contracts are structured as "swaps" and that the state law infringes upon the CFTC's regulatory authority over such products. In her ruling, Judge Menendez stated that the parties are likely to succeed on the merits of their claim that the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts the state law.

New York Attorney General: CLARITY Act Could Weaken State-Level Crypto Enforcement

: New York Attorney General Letitia James submitted written testimony to the U.S. Congress, urging stronger regulation of cryptocurrency companies and warning that proposed federal legislation could undermine states' ability to investigate fraud and hold platforms accountable. Letitia James stated that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would preempt state-level digital asset market regulation and transfer oversight authority to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), thereby weakening state and local enforcement. She disclosed that the New York Attorney General’s Office has seen a threefold increase in crypto fraud complaints over the past three years, with total reported losses over the past five years approaching $500 million. She called on crypto platforms to comply with anti-money laundering, know-your-customer (KYC), and cybersecurity requirements, monitor suspicious activity and market manipulation, and be held financially responsible when they fail to protect customers from fraud.

BlackRock Supports CLARITY Act as Senate Legislative Window Narrows

: The world’s largest asset management company, BlackRock, has expressed support for the CLARITY Act. Samara Cohen, Senior Managing Director and Head of Global Market Development at BlackRock, stated the bill represents a significant step toward establishing an investor-first regulatory framework for digital assets. Cohen stated the bill will help shape the next phase of market structure in the US by supporting innovation while maintaining transparency, resilience, and investor protection. Fidelity, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, and Charles Schwab have previously expressed support for related legislation or clearer digital asset rules. Last week, the US Senate Republicans released an updated version of the CLARITY Act, integrating work from both the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated that relevant Senate work could extend beyond the August recess. Crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto stated that it has sent over 925,000 emails to Congress in 2025, exceeding 1.1 million contacts with Congress since its founding. The organization said each Senate vote on the CLARITY Act will be included in a public congressional scorecard.

Pennsylvania Bill Proposes Banning Gambling Enterprises from Market Making in Prediction Markets

Odaily Odaily News A bipartisan group of Pennsylvania state legislators has introduced HB 2711, a bill aimed at prohibiting sportsbooks and other gambling companies from acting as liquidity providers or market makers on prediction platforms. The bill was introduced by State Representative Tarik Khan on July 22 and has been referred to the House Consumer Protection, Technology, and Utilities Committee. The bill would also bar prediction platforms from contracting or sharing revenue with enterprises primarily engaged in gambling activities, with restrictions covering parent companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, joint ventures, employees, and entities acting for the financial benefit of other companies. DraftKings and Flutter have both previously advanced market-making operations; DraftKings recently launched the DKeX exchange after acquiring CFTC-registered firm Railbird Technologies. HB 2711 proposes setting a minimum participation age of 21 and requires platforms to exclude self-excluded users, company employees, employees of settlement sources, and those holding material non-public information. The bill also mandates that platforms implement commercially reasonable measures to prevent fraud, manipulation, and the misuse of material non-public information, and prohibits markets involving high school sports, sports events involving minors, personal health conditions, and death events. The proposal does not establish a licensing system, with enforcement authority vesting in the state Attorney General. A companion bill, HB 2497, would require platforms to obtain a license from the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board and impose an aggregate 22% tax on the revenue of prediction betting platforms. Neither bill has yet received a committee vote or hearing.

South Korea's single-stock leveraged ETF daily trading volume falls below 10 trillion won, trading cools ahead of new regulatory rules

according to data from the Korea Exchange, the combined daily trading volume of 16 single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell below the 10 trillion won mark this Monday (July 27), dropping to 7.46 trillion won. This represents a 27% decrease from the previous trading day and a more than 30% decline compared to the average daily trading volume of the previous week. Their share of the total trading volume in the Korean ETF market also fell to 36.9%. Among these, products related to SK Hynix still dominated trading, accounting for approximately 70% of the total trading volume of all single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs.Market analysts believe the cooling of trading is mainly due to new regulations from South Korea's financial authorities. Starting July 31, individual investors in South Korea who newly purchase or increase holdings of single-stock leveraged ETFs/ETNs must maintain a cash-based margin of at least 30 million won. Additionally, regulators plan to raise the minimum trading unit to further curb high-frequency short-term trading. (Duam)

Fanatics to Acquire BGC’s Regulated Exchange and Clearing House, Launching Prediction Market Business

sports merchandise and betting platform Fanatics will acquire a federally regulated exchange and clearing house from BGC to launch and settle its own prediction market operations. Fanatics and BGC also plan to develop new market data products that combine prediction market activity with traditional financial market data. This deal enables Fanatics to enter the prediction market space, competing directly with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

2026 midterm election countdown: 100 days to go, nearly 70% of surveyed crypto holders say policy stance will influence their vote

As the 2026 midterm elections enter the final 100-day countdown, cryptocurrency advocacy group Stand With Crypto stated in a post on X on July 26 that nearly 70% of surveyed cryptocurrency holders believe a candidate's stance on crypto will influence their vote, and nearly 80% indicated they are almost certain to vote. Stand With Crypto noted that 73% of surveyed crypto holders are closely monitoring which crypto policies lawmakers support, while 59% do not have a fixed party affiliation. The organization stated that crypto supporters have contacted Congress over 1 million times regarding relevant legislation. Market attention is focused on the CLARITY Act, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025. The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in digital asset regulation, and will influence whether certain digital assets are classified as securities or commodities under federal oversight. Supporters of the bill argue that there is a limited time window to advance legislation before the election-year agenda tightens. Opponents contend that any new framework must maintain protections against fraud, market manipulation, and investor losses. The discussions involve issues such as exchange access, investment products, taxation, and the role of federal regulators in digital finance.

US Senator Releases New Draft of Clarity Act, Adds High-Level Official Cryptocurrency Ethics Clause for the First Time

a US Senator has released a new draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (Clarity Act), merging two previously advanced versions from the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee, and for the first time, includes content related to ethics clauses. The ethics clause in the new draft proposes to prohibit senior government officials from sponsoring or issuing their personal cryptocurrencies. The bill has not yet been fully advanced, and it remains uncertain whether the key provisions will receive bipartisan support.

Robinhood Reportedly in Talks to Integrate Crypto.com Prediction Market Products

According to Cointelegraph, Robinhood is negotiating with crypto trading platform Crypto.com to expand its prediction market business, planning to integrate yes/no event contract products provided by Crypto.com. People familiar with the matter stated that both parties are still in the discussion phase, and specific cooperation arrangements have not yet been finalized. Robinhood launched prediction market services in March 2025, initially offering related products through Kalshi to comply with regulatory requirements of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and subsequently integrated ForecastEx and Rotella. Bernstein analysts recently raised the price target from $130 to $160 due to optimism regarding Robinhood's development in the prediction market and tokenized stock sectors, and predicted that prediction market business revenue could reach $1.7 billion in 2028. However, the U.S. prediction market industry currently still faces legal disputes between state and federal regulators.

Fidelity Urges US Senate to Pass the CLARITY Act

Fidelity's Public Policy Department urged the U.S. Senate to pass the Digital Asset Market Structure Act, the CLARITY Act, as soon as possible, stating that establishing a clear regulatory framework would help boost investor confidence and enhance U.S. competitiveness in the global digital asset market.

Raydium Launches Permissioned AMM, Supporting Compliant Asset Trading on Solana Chain

According to official news, Raydium announced the launch of Permissioned Automated Market Maker (AMM) and Permissioned Pools, open to asset issuers that need to meet KYC or regulatory requirements. Issuers can directly access Solana on-chain liquidity infrastructure while retaining participant access control to establish compliant secondary trading markets.

Indian Finance Committee Recommends Introducing Interim Self-Regulatory Organization Mechanism to Regulate Crypto Market

According to FinanceFeeds, India's Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance has recommended that the government establish a transitional regulatory framework led by recognized self-regulatory organizations to implement transitional regulation on the cryptocurrency and virtual digital asset market, supervised by the Reserve Bank of India or the Securities and Exchange Board of India. The committee pointed out that while existing crypto assets are already taxed and included in anti-money laundering reporting requirements, the industry still lacks a clear statutory regulatory status, and investors face custody, operational, and fraud risks.

EU expands crypto restrictions on Belarus, banning its citizens from controlling all MiCA-regulated crypto service providers

OdailyOdaily reports that the European Union has further tightened restrictions on crypto assets concerning Belarus, prohibiting Belarusian citizens and residents from owning, controlling, or managing crypto service providers regulated under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation.According to Council Decision (CFSP) 2026/1847, adopted by the Council of the European Union on July 24, this measure is an extension of the EU's sanctions framework targeting Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The new rules will take effect on July 24, with the expanded restrictions on the crypto industry slated for implementation from August 25.As defined by MiCA, the affected services include operating crypto trading platforms, exchanging crypto assets, executing and transmitting customer orders, crypto asset issuance services, asset transfer services, investment advisory, and portfolio management. These restrictions come as the MiCA transitional period ended on July 1. The EU had previously required unauthorized crypto firms to cease relevant operations or face regulatory enforcement.The EU stated that this expansion is part of its efforts to combat the use of crypto platforms to evade sanctions against Russia. Earlier, in its 21st round of sanctions against Russia, the EU had extended trading bans to 14 foreign crypto service platforms and established a mechanism to potentially prohibit transactions with any foreign crypto service providers deemed to be assisting Russia in sanctions evasion.Market participants point out that with the full implementation of the MiCA regulatory framework, the EU is further tightening its oversight of the crypto industry through licensing systems and sanction mechanisms. (Cointelegraph)

Democratic Senators Criticize CLARITY Act Ethics Provisions as "Not Serious"

According to Cointelegraph, US Senate Republicans released the draft text of the "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act" (CLARITY Act) on Wednesday, which includes ethical clauses prohibiting all federal officials (including President Trump) from issuing or sponsoring digital assets. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego strongly criticized this, calling the draft "not a serious effort," and stated he would collaborate with Republican Senator Thom Tillis and others to propose a counter-proposal. Republican Senator Bernie Moreno maintained that the draft contains "the strongest ethical language in US history."

U.S. Democratic Senator: Republican CLARITY Act Ethics Clause Draft “Not a Serious Proposal”

U.S. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego stated that he will work with Republicans to propose a counter-proposal regarding the ethics clause in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) that has been recognized by the White House. He stated that the draft published this week is “not a serious proposal.” U.S. Senate Republicans released the proposed text of the CLARITY Act on Wednesday, including an ethics clause that prohibits all U.S. federal officials, including U.S. President Donald Trump, from issuing or sponsoring any digital assets. Democrats believe the relevant ethics provision is insufficient. Republican Senator Bernie Moreno denied that the clause was weak, stating that the draft contains “the most powerful ethical language in American history.” Gallego stated that he will work with Senator Thom Tillis and other Republicans to advance a counter-proposal and submit new text for the clause.

Goldman Sachs Endorses CLARITY Act, Stating It Will Establish a Fair Regulatory Framework for the Crypto Market

Goldman Sachs Group CEO David Solomon stated that while the CLARITY Act is not perfect, he supports its advancement, believing it will establish a clearer and fairer regulatory framework for the digital asset market, enhance market stability, and promote innovation.Solomon said the most significant implication of the CLARITY Act is "creating a level playing field, allowing the market to develop healthily." This stance contrasts sharply with that of some banking executives, such as JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. They argue that the bill, by allowing crypto companies to offer stablecoin products similar to interest-bearing deposits without assuming the same regulatory requirements as banks, could weaken the competitiveness of traditional banks.Currently, Republican senators in the U.S. have released a revised text of the CLARITY Act, which could be submitted to the Senate for a vote as early as next week. The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in regulating digital assets, and will continue negotiations on terms related to stablecoin issuance, consumer protection, and yield-bearing stablecoins. (CoinDesk)

“Fed Whisperer”: The July FOMC Meeting Becomes One of the Hardest to Predict in Recent Years

Nick Timiraos, the “Fed Whisperer,” stated on July 23 local time that the Fed’s July policy meeting would become the most unpredictable session in recent years. The resurgence in oil prices, increasing risks associated with US tariff policies, and some officials shifting towards supporting rate hikes have challenged the consensus to keep interest rates unchanged.The market widely expects the Fed to maintain the policy rate at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 28-29, keeping the current rate range at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, the outcome of this meeting does not signify an end to internal disagreements, as some officials are already paving the way for further rate hikes later this year.During previous meetings, there was a clear divide among the Fed’s 18 officials over whether a rate hike was needed this year, with half predicting a hike and the other half seeing no need for adjustment. Jonathan Pingle, chief US economist at UBS, stated that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh could emerge as a key figure in determining the direction of policy.