News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: New York State Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on Wednesday prohibiting state government employees from using non-public information to trade in prediction markets or assisting others in profiting from it. This move aims to address growing concerns over "insider betting" in prediction markets.According to the executive order, all government officials appointed by the governor or under her jurisdiction, as well as members of public agencies, are prohibited from using any non-public information obtained in the course of their duties to seek profits or avoid losses in prediction markets or similar services. They are also barred from assisting others in such activities. The governor mentioned in the document that the current "rapid expansion of prediction markets" has drawn regulatory attention.The day before, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also issued a similar executive order, banning state government personnel from using non-public information to participate in prediction market betting.Meanwhile, prediction market platform Kalshi disclosed that it has launched investigations into three insider trading cases involving candidates and has imposed fines and trading suspensions on the relevant individuals. One of those penalized is Mark Moran, a candidate in the Virginia State Senate Democratic primary, who was penalized for betting on his own campaign and stated he "hoped to be caught."
According to Cointelegraph, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that the company has removed the lawsuit filed against it by New York Attorney General Letitia James—regarding its prediction markets business—from state court to federal court, citing a substantial federal legal question concerning the regulation of event contracts. The lawsuit also involves Gemini Titan. New York alleges that the relevant prediction market products violate the state’s gambling laws and seeks penalties, disgorgement of alleged illegal profits, user compensation, and an injunction prohibiting the offering of similar products in New York without compliance with state law.
According to Hong Kong media outlet HK01, before attending the Executive Council meeting, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region John Lee addressed journalists’ questions regarding the suspension of the basketball betting tax policy. He stated that the Home and Youth Affairs Bureau must conduct regular reviews, and before continuing with the basketball betting tax policy, the government hopes to manage associated risks—a move he considers appropriate. Lee emphasized that the suspension is not solely due to gambling concerns but also relates to virtual currencies. The Hong Kong government has observed a sharp rise in trading volume on illegal gambling “prediction markets,” which are linked to the ability to place bets using cryptocurrencies; therefore, the policy should not be advanced blindly.
Odaily News The Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) has passed the "Digital Currency and Digital Rights Bill" in its first reading, marking a crucial step towards the legalization of crypto assets in the country. According to the bill, the Bank of Russia will become the core regulatory body for the crypto market, responsible for issuing licenses, approving or prohibiting related transactions, and defining the legality of transactions.The bill intends to recognize cryptocurrencies as "property" but explicitly prohibits their use as a means of payment within the country, with the ruble remaining the sole legal tender. However, against the backdrop of Western sanctions, crypto assets can be used for cross-border trade settlements, including scenarios such as service payments and intellectual property transfers.Furthermore, the bill allows Russian residents to legally invest in crypto assets through licensed institutions, but will implement an investor classification system, setting up tests and annual investment quota limits (with a suggested cap of 300,000 rubles) for ordinary investors. Initially, only high-market-cap mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will be permitted for trading, with a whitelist to be established by the central bank.The bill is expected to be formally passed and take effect no later than July 2026. However, some lawmakers and banking industry figures have criticized it for being overly strict in regulation, potentially affecting market activity and even leading to funds remaining in the gray market. Simultaneously, supporting legislation is also planned to introduce criminal penalties, with illegal crypto transactions potentially punishable by up to 7 years in prison. (Cryptopolitan)
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Senate’s Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has been delayed by several months, though a path forward remains amid a tight legislative calendar. Sources indicate that the bill’s original April timeline is now largely unattainable; the earliest it could reach committee review in the Senate is May. If the Senate manages to complete its vote before July, the bill could still become law in 2026. However, analysts note that, given the limited legislative window and overlapping political priorities, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 stands at approximately 50%. Should significant disagreements emerge later, the bill risks further delay—or even being shelved entirely.
According to The Block, New York State Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit against Coinbase and Gemini on Tuesday, accusing both companies of violating New York’s gambling laws through their prediction market platforms and permitting users aged 18 to 21 to participate—despite New York law requiring participants in mobile sports betting to be at least 21 years old. The state is seeking at least $2.2 billion in damages from Coinbase and at least $1.2 billion from Gemini, along with civil penalties, refunds to users, and forfeiture of illicit proceeds. In response, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that prediction markets fall under the regulatory authority of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the company will continue defending federal regulatory jurisdiction. The dispute over regulatory authority for prediction markets has now increasingly moved into the judicial arena; the CFTC has previously sued several state governments attempting to shut down such platforms.
According to Bloomberg, 39 signatories—including Nasdaq, the Boerse Stuttgart Group, and fintech associations from multiple countries—have called on the European Commission and the European Parliament to expedite the review of the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) Pilot Regime as a standalone piece of legislation and to separate it from the EU’s Market Integration and Supervision program. The signatories warned that if the overall negotiation process drags on, Europe risks falling behind the United States in DLT adoption. They urged the removal of asset-class restrictions, an increase in the aggregate transaction volume cap to €150 billion, and the elimination of license time limits. The letter also noted that the U.S. has already established a stablecoin regulatory framework through the GENIUS Act and is rapidly establishing leadership in tokenized assets. The European Commission is currently pushing for a swift resolution of the entire regulatory package, viewing it as a key component of its Capital Markets Union initiative. Financial Services Commissioner Maria Luisa Albuquerque has previously called repeatedly for all legislative proposals to be adopted simultaneously.
According to The Block, Thom Tillis, a Republican Senator from North Carolina and a key negotiator on the Senate Banking Committee, stated that the committee does not expect to schedule hearings to revise and vote on the crypto market structure bill within April. The primary legislative disagreement currently centers on how to handle rewards associated with stablecoins: the current draft proposes banning rewards for idle stablecoin accounts while permitting returns generated from trading activity. Banking representatives fear such returns could draw deposits away from traditional banks, whereas crypto firms argue that restricting rewards would stifle innovation. Tillis suggested postponing the committee’s review to May. Previously, Senator Bernie Moreno warned that if the bill fails to pass before May, “digital asset legislation will stall indefinitely.”
Odaily News U.S. Senator Thom Tillis is urging the Senate Banking Committee to postpone the deliberation of the crypto market structure bill until May, in order to secure more time for finalizing a regulatory compromise on stablecoins between banks and the crypto industry.This move aims to provide additional negotiation space for key disagreements surrounding stablecoins and to promote the formation of a more feasible regulatory framework. (Cointelegraph)
The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong has announced a new regulatory framework permitting secondary-market trading of SFC-authorized investment products that have been tokenized, to promote the development of digital asset trading activities in Hong Kong. The new guidance primarily facilitates secondary-market trading of tokenized open-ended funds on licensed virtual asset trading platforms and will consider over-the-counter (OTC) trading arrangements on a case-by-case basis. As of March 2026, Hong Kong has launched 13 tokenized products to the public, with the total assets under management (AUM) of their tokenized share classes reaching approximately HK$10.7 billion. The first batch of products is expected to consist mainly of tokenized money market funds. The new measures cover fair pricing, orderly trading, liquidity provision, and disclosure of information.
According to CoinDesk, Payward, Kraken’s parent company, announced the acquisition of digital asset derivatives platform Bitnomial for up to $550 million in cash and stock. The deal values Payward at approximately $20 billion. Bitnomial is the first crypto-native platform in the U.S. to hold all three key regulatory licenses: a Designated Contract Market (DCM), a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), and a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM). Following the acquisition, Payward will instantly obtain all regulatory authorizations required to operate a full derivatives business in the U.S., significantly accelerating its path to compliance compared to building such capabilities organically. Post-integration, the combined platforms will launch spot margin, perpetual futures, and options products for U.S. customers. Through Payward Services’ B2B infrastructure, these regulated U.S. derivatives offerings will be made available to banks, fintech firms, and brokers via a single API. This acquisition marks Payward’s second major deal following its $1.5 billion acquisition of NinjaTrader in 2025. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026.
Odaily News: Mike Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that despite the CFTC's staff numbers shrinking by about a quarter since 2025, the agency is operating more efficiently in monitoring and investigations through the introduction of AI and automation technologies. Mike Selig confirmed that the CFTC is conducting multiple investigations into prediction markets to address insider trading, fraud, and market manipulation, and emphasized the agency's zero-tolerance stance towards illegal market activities. Additionally, the Digital Asset Market Transparency Act, currently being advanced by the Senate, proposes to place the CFTC at the core of regulatory oversight for non-security cryptocurrency trading, covering transactions involving assets such as Bitcoin and ETH.
Odaily News As the U.S. midterm elections approach, the White House is accelerating efforts to promote a crypto market structure bill to ease the long-standing disputes between the banking industry and the crypto sector.Reports indicate that multiple parties, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt, and related policy figures, have recently publicly called for advancing this bill. The U.S. Council of Economic Advisers has also released a report addressing the banking industry's concerns about the crypto sector.Analysts suggest that, based on the timing, the current period may be a critical window for promoting relevant legislation, but uncertainty remains regarding whether the bill can be smoothly passed. (The Hill)
Odaily News Eric Anziani, COO of crypto.com, stated at Paris Blockchain Week that prediction markets could become a trillion-dollar market. Because users have a direct stake in the outcomes, their accuracy can be 30% higher than surveys. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily News Cantor Fitzgerald pointed out in its latest report that with the rapid rise of prediction markets, Robinhood and Coinbase are poised to become major beneficiaries in this sector, leveraging their massive retail user base and mature trading infrastructure. Although leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket remain private companies, Robinhood and Coinbase have already begun entering this market by integrating event-driven trading within their applications.Cantor noted that prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on real-world events such as elections and economic data, with prices reflecting the crowd's probability judgments. This model is similar to stock and crypto trading platforms, primarily generating revenue through trading activity fees. Among them, Robinhood's prediction market product, launched after the US election, has grown rapidly and has become one of its fastest-growing revenue streams; Coinbase is gradually opening related features to users by integrating Kalshi's infrastructure.The report believes that prediction markets not only have retail trading potential but may also play a role in institutional hedging and macro forecasting in the future. However, regulation remains the biggest uncertainty, as its legal status is still debated between being classified as a derivative or gambling. (CoinDesk)
According to The Information, prediction market Polymarket has announced audits of several early-stage startups integrated into its ecosystem. These startups had previously been accused of identifying and distributing suspected “insider trading accounts” to steer users into copy-trading those accounts. Among the implicated projects are Kreo—which touts itself as a service for “detecting insider accounts ahead of time”—and Polycool—which offers an “insider trading guide.” By pushing suspicious account trading data to users, these platforms have amplified market concerns about insider trading and market manipulation. Polymarket’s move signals its strengthened compliance oversight of its ecosystem, following sustained external scrutiny over potential insider trading risks in prediction markets.
The Jito Foundation announced a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with KODA, South Korea’s largest digital asset custodian. Under the agreement, both parties will jointly promote institutional access to the liquid staking token JitoSOL in the Korean market in compliance with applicable regulations. Collaboration activities include conducting market education for institutional investors, exploring compliant custody and staking solutions, and coordinating promotional efforts in alignment with developments in South Korea’s virtual asset regulatory framework. KODA offers cold wallet storage, MPC-based key management, institutional staking services, and $20 million in digital asset insurance underwritten by Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance. It also holds a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license and ISMS certification. Previously, the Jito Foundation had explored launching a JitoSOL ETF in partnership with Hanwha Asset Management, pending regulatory approval.
According to QCP Group, U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend, sending oil prices back above $100 per barrel and triggering a broad market shift toward risk aversion. BTC encountered resistance at $74,000, while ETH pulled back from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports; Iran countered with threats targeting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further widening risk exposure. China, as a major importer of Iranian crude oil, sits at the center of this crisis. Should the blockade be implemented, U.S.-China confrontation risks would rise significantly—a scenario not yet fully priced into markets. Nevertheless, the crypto market has demonstrated notable resilience: implied volatility and risk-reversal indicators have both retreated to pre-conflict levels, signaling waning panic. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded net inflows of $612.1 million over the past week, reflecting continued institutional buying momentum. Market focus has now shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details: Trump announced the blockade will commence at 10 a.m. ET—yet repeated delays have rendered policy credibility itself a tradable variable.
According to an article published by Caixin titled “Financial Innovation or Insider Trading? The Rise and Controversy of Polymarket,” when insider information can be openly monetized, the boundary of prediction markets has already become blurred—raising questions about whether such markets are merely “gambling” disguised as finance, or even涉嫌 insider trading. Yet regardless of the legal debate over whether such activities constitute gambling, the fact that Polymarket uses the USDC stablecoin for settlement and delivery itself poses a significant legal risk for participants within China. Previously, U.S. Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar introduced the “End Prediction Market Corruption Act,” which prohibits the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from trading on prediction markets and requires that the prediction market trading activities of their spouses and dependents be included in annual financial disclosures.
According to CoinDesk, S&P Global Market Intelligence released a report stating that although the stablecoin market has surpassed $31.6 billion, banks’ strategic planning around stablecoins remains largely in the early exploratory phase. S&P Global’s Q1 2026 survey found that among 100 surveyed banks, only 7% are developing related frameworks, and none have launched live pilots. Key concerns for banks include risks of deposit outflows, intensifying competition from non-bank institutions, and uncertain impacts on revenue. Regarding strategic divergence, the report forecasts that large banks will explore issuing tokenized deposits, while mid- and small-sized institutions are more likely to participate via fiat on-ramp and off-ramp services. Regardless of the chosen strategy, banks must undertake extensive upgrades to their existing systems to support real-time digital asset operations.