News linked to both this project and an event.
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
In an article titled “Getting Prediction Market Regulation Right,” Miles Jennings, Policy Lead and General Counsel of a16z Crypto, and others argue that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s current efforts to reform the regulatory framework for prediction markets come at a critical juncture—prediction markets are evolving from niche products into essential infrastructure. When combined with AI- and blockchain-driven novel risk-management models, prediction markets can enable AI agents to automatically hedge risk, adjust on-chain event contract positions in real time, and play a central role in risk management, information aggregation, and truth assessment. a16z Crypto warns that an overly conservative regulatory framework would constrain the growth potential of prediction markets. Accordingly, it has submitted a comment letter offering recommendations on key issues—including the application of statutory core principles and CFTC regulations to prediction markets, public interest considerations related to event contracts—and proposing five regulatory recommendations for prediction markets: (1) granting the CFTC unified regulatory authority over event contracts; (2) optimizing dispute resolution mechanisms for such contracts; (3) strengthening monitoring of insider trading and market manipulation; (4) re-evaluating the “special rules”; and (5) exploring clearer compliance pathways for on-chain prediction markets.
The U.S. Senate has unanimously passed a resolution (S. Res. 708) prohibiting senators from participating in prediction market trading, effective immediately. The proposal, introduced by Bernie Moreno, aims to curb speculative trading using non-public information.Several recent related incidents have drawn regulatory attention, including cases where individuals profited from prediction markets using confidential information. Meanwhile, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are also strengthening internal controls to prevent insider trading.At the state level, New York and Illinois have also implemented similar measures, restricting public officials from using non-public information to participate in prediction markets.
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
According to The Block, Gemini’s Olympus division has officially received a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), enabling it to serve as an internal clearing house for settlement, risk management, and collateral management—eliminating reliance on third-party clearing and potentially reducing operational costs. Combined with its previously obtained Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, Gemini now possesses full-stack, compliant capabilities across futures, options, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets. Gemini is currently pursuing a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) license to complete its full suite of CFTC authorizations, positioning itself for direct competition with Kraken and Coinbase.
According to The Block, cryptocurrency venture capital firm Hashed has obtained a Financial Services Permission from the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM). With this license, Hashed plans to collaborate with institutional investors in the Middle East within a regulated environment.
pricing on the Kalshi prediction market indicates the market currently sees only about a 50% probability of a Fed rate cut before 2027, a sharp decline from the 80-90% probability seen earlier this year. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes, the market is effectively pricing in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, reflecting a lack of confidence in near-term monetary policy easing.
Odaily Bitcoin remained consolidating above $77,000 on Wednesday, with markets cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to market data, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of approximately $75,689 to $77,837 during the session, and is currently trading around $77,100.This FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may be his last as Fed Chair, with markets simultaneously pricing in uncertainty regarding policy direction and potential power transitions.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal after nine consecutive days of net inflows. SoSoValue data shows that on April 28, ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $89.68 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of about $112 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also logged net outflows of $21.8 million.On-chain data also signals caution. CryptoQuant noted that on April 27, exchange net inflows reached 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day inflow in nearly 30 days. Exchange reserves have also rebounded recently. If these inflows are not quickly absorbed, prices could retest the support range of $74,000–$75,000.On the macroeconomic front, fluctuations in crude oil prices and shifts in the Middle East energy landscape continue to influence inflation expectations. Some analysts believe this could limit the Fed's room for future easing. Meanwhile, market liquidity continues to weaken, with institutional trading volumes and perpetual contract activity both at low levels. This means any policy surprise could amplify price volatility.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure and may continue to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path. (The Block)
CFTC Chairman Mike Selig, in an interview with CoinDesk, stated that the CFTC is developing tools leveraging AI to review registration applications for the U.S. crypto market and monitor trading activity. Mike Selig noted that due to federal government layoffs, which have reduced the agency's workforce by more than one-fifth, AI and automation technologies will be used to fill the manpower gap and improve the efficiency of document review. Currently, his employees are undergoing training on Microsoft Copilot, while the agency is also developing internal tools for reviewing swaps data and market surveillance.Furthermore, Mike Selig stated that the digital asset classification guide jointly released by the CFTC and the SEC is the most important initiative during his tenure, aimed at providing regulatory clarity for market participants. Regarding prediction markets, Mike Selig reiterated the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction and emphasized that strict enforcement actions will be taken against violations such as insider trading.
the Israel Capital Market Authority has approved Bits of Gold to issue the country's first shekel-pegged stablecoin, BILS. The token is a regulated asset launched by Bits of Gold after a two-year evaluation and pilot program, with support from the Solana network, Fireblocks, and Ernst & Young. Bits of Gold stated that bringing the shekel on-chain aims to position it alongside currencies such as the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar, which have already entered the blockchain financial system. Currently, the stablecoin market size has exceeded $300 billion. This issuance aims to address the dominance of dollar-pegged tokens in on-chain payments and safeguard digital sovereignty.
on Sunday that after the Department of Justice concluded its investigation into Powell, Republican Senator Thom Tillis dropped his opposition to Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve Chair nomination confirmation process. The Senate Banking Committee ultimately voted 13 to 11 in favor of sending Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair to a full Senate vote. According to the official website of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, the vote is scheduled for April 29th at 10:00 AM Eastern Time.On the same day, the Federal Open Market Committee will also announce its latest interest rate decision. Current Chair Jerome Powell will preside over his 63rd—and potentially final—press conference since taking the helm of the Federal Reserve eight years ago. Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 15th, but his term as a Board member runs until January 31, 2028. Whether Powell will also step down from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has become a key focus for the market.
According to Blockchain for Europe, the European Blockchain Association, together with Dr. Ulrich Bindseil, former Director General of Market Infrastructure and Payments at the European Central Bank, and Erwin Voloder, the Association’s Director of Research and Strategy, jointly released the report “Reforming MiCA to Support Euro Stablecoins” on April 27. The report acknowledges MiCA’s significance as a landmark regulatory framework, while also pointing out that certain design choices may place Europe in an unfavorable zone of the regulatory “Laffer curve”—overly stringent requirements could undermine the competitiveness of EU markets and drive related business activities outside the EU. To address this, the report puts forward a series of targeted, pragmatic reform proposals aimed at enabling MiCA to foster a more competitive, resilient, and globally influential euro stablecoin ecosystem. It further calls on policymakers, industry participants, and all stakeholders to actively engage in discussions to collectively advance the continuous refinement of the MiCA framework.
Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the current macro framework for the crypto market has shifted from “liquidity trades awaiting rate cuts” to a constraining environment characterized by “higher-for-longer interest rates + sticky inflation + war-related shocks.” According to the latest Reuters survey, most economists have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to after September, with nearly one-third believing no cuts will occur this year. The primary reason is that the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, pushing inflation trajectories higher once again and thereby constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy space. This shift directly undermines the two key narratives previously supporting crypto assets: expectations of liquidity easing and a declining interest-rate path. Elevated oil prices, coupled with consecutive upward revisions to PCE inflation expectations, increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain high—or even extend their elevated period—leading to a higher discount rate and shrinking risk budgets. As a result, marginal capital inflows into the crypto market are diminishing, and high-volatility assets broadly face mounting pressure.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill—the Clarity Act—has seen no significant public progress over the past month and is not expected to achieve a breakthrough in April. The report notes that if the bill is to pass before the election, May 25—Memorial Day—is viewed as a critical milestone for advancement; after that date, members of Congress will gradually shift into campaign mode, leaving less time for legislative work. At present, it remains unclear whether the Senate Banking Committee will move forward with related hearings. Issues such as stablecoin yields and other outstanding matters have also yet to be publicly resolved. Even if these disagreements are addressed, the House of Representatives would still need to vote on the bill again.
The Vietnamese government plans to launch a five-year cryptocurrency asset pilot program in Q2 2026, shifting previously offshore-dominated, unregulated crypto trading into an onshore, regulated market. Currently, Vietnamese traders’ annual cryptocurrency transaction volume stands at $22–23 billion, exceeding $600 million daily. The new pilot will only allow participation by locally registered institutions that meet stringent capital and compliance requirements, and all traded assets must be backed by real-world assets and settled in Vietnamese đồng (VND).
Odaily Odaily: U.S. President Trump stated at a private event for TRUMP Meme coin holders held at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida that the White House will not allow banking lobbying groups to hinder the progress of the crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He said the crypto industry has entered the mainstream, declaring "America is the leader in crypto," and that banks should not obstruct the establishment of stablecoin and crypto regulatory frameworks.Dubbed the "most exclusive meeting in the world," the event invited hundreds of large TRUMP coin holders. Guests included Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley, and boxing champion Mike Tyson. Previously, the U.S. banking industry had expressed concerns that stablecoin reward mechanisms could impact traditional deposit businesses, which had slowed the legislative process. (CoinDesk)
The People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the China National Intellectual Property Administration, the Cyberspace Administration of China, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly issued the “Measures for the Online Marketing of Financial Products,” which will take effect on September 30, 2026. The Measures clarify that, except for financial institutions and third-party internet platforms lawfully entrusted by them, no other organizations or individuals may engage in online marketing of financial products; no institution or individual may provide online marketing services or facilitation for illegal financial activities, and explicitly include virtual currency issuance and trading, illegal foreign exchange margin trading, and other activities within the scope of illegal financial activities.
According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market weakened overall on Friday, with BTC hovering near $77,800—its upward momentum since Wednesday’s rally from $65,000 notably slowing. ETH traded at $2,300, down approximately 0.8% over the past 24 hours, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stems primarily from two sources: First, Japan’s March Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.1% year-on-year—above expectations—and core inflation accelerated, raising market expectations that the Bank of Japan may signal an interest rate hike at its next policy meeting; a stronger yen could trigger unwinding of global risk-asset carry trades. Second, the ongoing Iran conflict continues disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz; WTI crude futures have surged over 40% since the outbreak of hostilities, reaching $96 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Defense warned that mine clearance will take at least six months, implying persistent global inflationary pressures and further constraining the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates.
According to CoinDesk, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit on April 24 against Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, accusing these platforms of operating unlicensed gambling businesses under the guise of “event contracts.” The complaint cites marketing language used by the platforms themselves—for instance, Kalshi’s claim to be “the first legal sports betting platform in the U.S.,” and Polymarket’s statement that users can “bet on the outcomes of future events”—to argue that such contracts constitute wagering under Wisconsin law. The state government further noted that the platforms’ business model—charging fees per transaction—is functionally identical to casinos’ commission-based revenue structure. At the heart of this case lies a jurisdictional dispute: whether prediction market contracts fall under federal regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or are subject to individual states’ gambling laws. Similar lawsuits have already been filed by multiple states, and this conflict is expected to ultimately be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has become embroiled in an insider trading controversy due to predictive trading centered on US President Donald Trump's related policies and statements. Data shows that from April 5th to April 8th alone, markets related to the situation in Iran generated approximately 413 million predictions, involving funds exceeding $100 million.Analysts point out that Trump's highly unpredictable decision-making style has significantly boosted activity in the prediction market. Topics such as whether he will take military action against Iran or push for a ceasefire have become high-frequency trading targets. Related trading volumes surged rapidly following his social media posts.Notably, Donald Trump Jr. was revealed to hold shares in Polymarket while also serving as an advisor to another prediction platform, Kalshi, sparking external questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data indicates that political predictions have become the second-largest category in prediction markets, trailing only sports. Despite the escalating controversy, the overall attitude of US regulators remains relatively lenient, driving the continuous expansion of this sector. (Fortune)