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Caixin: SpaceX IPO First Day Free Float Market Cap Could Be Between $440 Billion and $530 Billion
Caixin published an article titled "SpaceX's $1.75 Trillion IPO Approaches: Who Can Buy and Is It Worth It?", which points out: Wall Street has never encountered a listed company with such a massive IPO scale while simultaneously having such a complex relationship with the U.S. government. Nasdaq has previously passed a new "Fast Entry" rule, allowing newly listed companies with a market capitalization ranking among the top 40 of the Nasdaq 100 Index to be quickly included in the Nasdaq 100 within 15 trading days after listing. This rule will officially take effect on May 1, 2026, and is also considered to be designed for the upcoming SpaceX IPO, while potentially paving the way for the listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, which may occur in 2026 or 2027.Assuming SpaceX lists with a $1.75 trillion valuation and a free float ratio of 25% to 30%, the free float market cap on the first day of the IPO would be approximately between $440 billion and $530 billion. Based on the weight calculation of the Nasdaq 100, SpaceX would directly enter the top ten weighted stocks. According to market sources, the S&P 500 is also evaluating some form of "fast inclusion" plan, though details have not yet been disclosed. (Caixin)
Gate Ventures: Tech Stocks Drive Market Recovery, Crypto Assets and Investment & Financing Also Recover in Sync
Odaily Odaily News According to the latest weekly report from Gate Ventures, there are signs of a staged recovery at the macro level. While major stock indices showed divergent performance, the overall trend was upward, and market risk appetite has somewhat improved. Against this backdrop, the crypto market rebounded in tandem, with BTC rising by 6.6% and ETH by 4.7%. They also recorded net spot ETF inflows of approximately $823.7 million and $155 million respectively, indicating a strengthening return of capital. The total market capitalization increased by 5.2%, while the market cap excluding BTC and ETH grew by 2.6%, suggesting that upward momentum is beginning to spread to a broader range of assets, albeit at a relatively moderate pace.In terms of asset and sector dynamics, structural opportunities continue to emerge. The top 30 assets averaged a 4.2% increase. Meanwhile, advancements at the on-chain and industry levels are persisting, including ongoing developments in digital currency infrastructure and asset tokenization. Regarding investment and financing, 12 transactions were completed last week, with a total disclosed financing amount of approximately $54.89 million, representing a month-over-month increase of about 31%. Capital primarily flowed into DeFi and infrastructure sectors. Notably, JPYC secured $17.62 million in funding to advance the infrastructure development of its yen-backed stablecoin. 3F completed a $4 million seed funding round, with participants including Gate Ventures. Against the backdrop of a marginally improving macro environment, investment and financing activity has picked up, with capital still focusing on long-term application scenarios and foundational capability building amidst volatile conditions.
Republic Power Group Announces Strategic Investment to Enter RWA Tokenization and Blockchain Market
According to Chainwire, Nasdaq-listed Republic Power Group Limited (“RPGL”) announced a definitive agreement to acquire a 10% equity stake in NVC Partners Limited and enter into a technology services and platform cooperation agreement with NVTH Limited and its affiliate NVTHK Limited, officially entering the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and blockchain infrastructure market. Under the agreement, RPGL will gain access to RWA tokenization systems, secondary trading infrastructure, and related technology development, support, and maintenance services. The company stated that this move will accelerate its expansion into institutional-grade digital finance and capital markets solutions, leveraging its customer base in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Southeast Asia to drive real-world application deployment.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic to Go Public or Raise Over $240 Billion, Potentially Impacting Crypto Market Liquidity
According to CoinDesk, SpaceX is expected to go public in June and could surpass Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion IPO in 2019 to become the largest IPO in history. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public in the second half of this year. Collectively, these three companies are projected to raise over $240 billion—potentially marking a pivotal turning point for liquidity in the crypto market. Market analysts believe these mega-IPOs could significantly drain liquidity from risk assets, with the crypto market sitting in the same funding pool. As mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have closely tracked the Nasdaq and U.S. equity risk sentiment in recent years, a large-scale shift of capital toward subscribing to tech giants’ IPOs may weaken buying support for BTC, ETH, and altcoins.
daos.fun Founder's Summary: Has Stopped Launching DAO Products, Speculation-Driven Market and Governance Flaws Are Unsustainable
Odaily News daos.fun founder baoskee posted on the X platform stating that the team has ceased further development of DAO products. The reason is that the market is primarily driven by speculation, and the "degen managing a hedge fund" model has structural issues, including behaviors such as dumping after fundraising or self-buying tokens.He pointed out that daos.fun had previously promoted narratives related to DAOs, ICM, and AI, and emphasized that the team did not engage in insider trading or token sniping during operations, creating profits for users.Simultaneously, baoskee mentioned that while the whitelist mechanism is controversial, overall it still constituted an "interesting experiment." He stated he will continue to monitor the development of new projects like pumpcade and megapot, and is optimistic about the innovative potential of the Solana ecosystem in the financial gaming field.
Tom Lee: Crypto Bear Market Nears End, ETH Benefits from Asset Tokenization and AI Narrative
Odaily News Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine, stated that market signals indicate the current "crypto winter" is nearing its end. He pointed out that since the low point in early February, ETH has rebounded by approximately 41% and has recently outperformed the S&P 500 index.He believes Ethereum is currently primarily benefiting from two major narrative drivers: the advancement of traditional financial asset tokenization and the rising demand from AI systems for public blockchain infrastructure. Furthermore, he noted that historically, crypto bear markets have often coincided with significant stock market corrections, and the current changes in the macro environment may suggest this cycle is approaching its conclusion. (Prnewswire)
Polymarket probability of “CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026” rises to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
a16z Crypto Proposes Five Regulatory Recommendations: Framework Should Not Be Overly Conservative; CFTC Should Implement Unified Regulation
In an article titled “Getting Prediction Market Regulation Right,” Miles Jennings, Policy Lead and General Counsel of a16z Crypto, and others argue that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s current efforts to reform the regulatory framework for prediction markets come at a critical juncture—prediction markets are evolving from niche products into essential infrastructure. When combined with AI- and blockchain-driven novel risk-management models, prediction markets can enable AI agents to automatically hedge risk, adjust on-chain event contract positions in real time, and play a central role in risk management, information aggregation, and truth assessment. a16z Crypto warns that an overly conservative regulatory framework would constrain the growth potential of prediction markets. Accordingly, it has submitted a comment letter offering recommendations on key issues—including the application of statutory core principles and CFTC regulations to prediction markets, public interest considerations related to event contracts—and proposing five regulatory recommendations for prediction markets: (1) granting the CFTC unified regulatory authority over event contracts; (2) optimizing dispute resolution mechanisms for such contracts; (3) strengthening monitoring of insider trading and market manipulation; (4) re-evaluating the “special rules”; and (5) exploring clearer compliance pathways for on-chain prediction markets.
U.S. Senate Bans Lawmakers from Participating in Prediction Market Trading
The U.S. Senate has unanimously passed a resolution (S. Res. 708) prohibiting senators from participating in prediction market trading, effective immediately. The proposal, introduced by Bernie Moreno, aims to curb speculative trading using non-public information.Several recent related incidents have drawn regulatory attention, including cases where individuals profited from prediction markets using confidential information. Meanwhile, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are also strengthening internal controls to prevent insider trading.At the state level, New York and Illinois have also implemented similar measures, restricting public officials from using non-public information to participate in prediction markets.
Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Amplify Market Caution
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
Gemini Receives CFTC Derivatives Clearing Organization License, Accelerating Development of Full-Stack Compliant Derivatives Platform
According to The Block, Gemini’s Olympus division has officially received a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), enabling it to serve as an internal clearing house for settlement, risk management, and collateral management—eliminating reliance on third-party clearing and potentially reducing operational costs. Combined with its previously obtained Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, Gemini now possesses full-stack, compliant capabilities across futures, options, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets. Gemini is currently pursuing a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) license to complete its full suite of CFTC authorizations, positioning itself for direct competition with Kraken and Coinbase.
Crypto VC firm Hashed obtains Abu Dhabi financial services license
According to The Block, cryptocurrency venture capital firm Hashed has obtained a Financial Services Permission from the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM). With this license, Hashed plans to collaborate with institutional investors in the Middle East within a regulated environment.
Polymarket probability of “CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026” rises to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Reddit Announces Q2 Earnings Guidance: Revenue Expected to Be $715–$725 Million, Above Market Expectations
According to Reuters, Reddit announced its Q2 2026 financial guidance, forecasting revenue of $715–$725 million—above the market expectation of $711.6 million—and adjusted EBITDA of $285–$295 million—also exceeding analysts’ consensus estimate of $277.1 million. Additionally, the number of active advertisers rose 75% year-on-year; revenue climbed 69% year-on-year to $663 million—surpassing the market expectation of $610.9 million; daily active unique visitors increased 17% year-on-year to 126.8 million; and global average revenue per user (ARPU) rose 44%. Reddit stated it is continuously enhancing advertising efficiency through AI-powered tools—including an AI ad copy generator tailored for Reddit’s environment—and performance-based ads driven by these AI tools now account for over 60% of total advertising revenue.
Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Amplify Market Caution
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
Galaxy Digital Reports $216 Million Net Loss for Q1 2026, Stock Rises 5% Against Market Trend
Galaxy Digital released its first-quarter 2026 financial results, reporting a net loss of $216 million and a diluted loss per share of $0.49. The primary driver was the broad downturn in cryptocurrency markets during the quarter, with total crypto market capitalization shrinking by approximately 20%. Its crypto asset holdings declined from $1.67 billion in Q4 2025 to $1.36 billion. As of the end of March, its largest crypto holding was 6,894 BTC (approximately $431 million), followed by $61 million worth of SOL and $42 million worth of ETH. Despite the pressure on earnings, Galaxy Digital’s AI infrastructure business is progressing smoothly: the company confirmed delivery of its first data center facility to CoreWeave and expects to fulfill its full commitment of 133 megawatts of AI/IT infrastructure by the end of Q2. Boosted by this news, the company’s stock (NASDAQ: GLXY) rose 5% intraday—a move that diverged from Bitcoin’s concurrent decline. Wall Street analysts currently assign GLXY an aggregate rating of “Moderate Buy,” with a consensus target price of $39.40—implying roughly 50% upside from its share price of $26.30 at the time of writing.
Analysis: Bitcoin Holds at $77,000 Range, Powell's "Final FOMC" Adds Market Uncertainty
Odaily Bitcoin remained consolidating above $77,000 on Wednesday, with markets cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to market data, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of approximately $75,689 to $77,837 during the session, and is currently trading around $77,100.This FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may be his last as Fed Chair, with markets simultaneously pricing in uncertainty regarding policy direction and potential power transitions.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal after nine consecutive days of net inflows. SoSoValue data shows that on April 28, ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $89.68 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of about $112 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also logged net outflows of $21.8 million.On-chain data also signals caution. CryptoQuant noted that on April 27, exchange net inflows reached 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day inflow in nearly 30 days. Exchange reserves have also rebounded recently. If these inflows are not quickly absorbed, prices could retest the support range of $74,000–$75,000.On the macroeconomic front, fluctuations in crude oil prices and shifts in the Middle East energy landscape continue to influence inflation expectations. Some analysts believe this could limit the Fed's room for future easing. Meanwhile, market liquidity continues to weaken, with institutional trading volumes and perpetual contract activity both at low levels. This means any policy surprise could amplify price volatility.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure and may continue to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path. (The Block)
Analysis: Bitcoin Spot Trading Volume Hits Lowest Since October 2023, Low Liquidity May Amplify Market Volatility
data shows the daily spot trading volume of Bitcoin has fallen to below $8 billion, the lowest level since October 2023, when the BTC price was still below $40,000. Glassnode points out that since the peak of over $25 billion in early February this year, trading volume has continued to decline. A low-volume environment typically implies reduced market depth, making it more sensitive to capital flow changes.Market depth is usually measured by the cumulative bids and asks within a 2% range of the current price. When depth contracts, a few large orders can significantly drive price movements, meaning market volatility may be amplified. However, the options market does not currently fully reflect this risk. The Volmex BVIV index shows that Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen below 42% annualized, hitting a three-month low, indicating that traders are generally betting on continued market stability.Analysis suggests that with market sentiment cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $77,800, lacking a clear direction. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance, particularly expressing concerns over rising energy prices and inflation risks, it could prolong the pause in rate cuts or even strengthen expectations of a rate hike, thereby suppressing risk asset performance. (CoinDesk)
Standard Chartered: rsETH Security Incident Does Not Alter RWA Growth Thesis, Maintaining $2 Trillion Market Size Forecast
Standard Chartered Bank's latest report indicates that while the theft of KelpDAO's rsETH has severely impacted the DeFi ecosystem, it is insufficient to change the long-term growth trend of Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization. The bank maintains its forecast that the RWA tokenization market will grow from $35 billion in October 2025 to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, with the core drivers remaining the continued expansion of the DeFi banking system and stablecoin liquidity.Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that this incident is more like DeFi being "bent, not broken," and could even serve as a significant turning point for the industry to move towards a more resilient structure. (The Block)
QCP: BTC Monthly Gain Exceeds 14%; Geopolitical and Security Incidents Disrupt Market Sentiment
QCP Group’s analysis states that U.S.-Iran negotiations have once again collapsed, while the Middle East ceasefire continues, leaving the overall geopolitical landscape relatively static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump suspected as the target. Following Asia’s market open, BTC briefly surged past $79,000 and ETH above $2,400—but gains quickly reversed amid concerns triggered by news of Iran’s Foreign Minister traveling to Russia for talks with Putin. Since early April, BTC has rallied over 14% cumulatively, marking four consecutive weeks of positive closes. Spot ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows totaling approximately $2.11 billion. Strategy funds added over $3.8 billion worth of BTC in the past month. The current key resistance level for BTC lies near the CME gap around $82,000. BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain persistently negative; a breakout above this level could trigger short-covering. Implied volatility continues declining, and risk-reversal skew has narrowed somewhat, signaling gradually rising market interest in upside exposure. Key events this week: - April 29: Earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, plus the FOMC interest-rate decision. - April 30: Apple earnings report, U.S. Q1 GDP data, and March PCE inflation data.
Category Labs Increases MON Public Market Token Buyback Authorization to $80 Million and Extends It to End of 2026
According to a post by Category Labs, Category Labs has increased the authorized amount for public-market token buybacks from its previous cap to a maximum of $80 million and extended the execution period through the end of 2026. It stated that any buyback may be initiated, suspended, or terminated at its sole discretion, subject to applicable laws and regulations. This update does not constitute a commitment to repurchase any specific number of tokens but reflects its intention to consider buybacks opportunistically based on market conditions.
Galaxy Digital Reports $216 Million Net Loss for Q1 2026, Stock Rises 5% Against Market Trend
Galaxy Digital released its first-quarter 2026 financial results, reporting a net loss of $216 million and a diluted loss per share of $0.49. The primary driver was the broad downturn in cryptocurrency markets during the quarter, with total crypto market capitalization shrinking by approximately 20%. Its crypto asset holdings declined from $1.67 billion in Q4 2025 to $1.36 billion. As of the end of March, its largest crypto holding was 6,894 BTC (approximately $431 million), followed by $61 million worth of SOL and $42 million worth of ETH. Despite the pressure on earnings, Galaxy Digital’s AI infrastructure business is progressing smoothly: the company confirmed delivery of its first data center facility to CoreWeave and expects to fulfill its full commitment of 133 megawatts of AI/IT infrastructure by the end of Q2. Boosted by this news, the company’s stock (NASDAQ: GLXY) rose 5% intraday—a move that diverged from Bitcoin’s concurrent decline. Wall Street analysts currently assign GLXY an aggregate rating of “Moderate Buy,” with a consensus target price of $39.40—implying roughly 50% upside from its share price of $26.30 at the time of writing.
Hyperliquid Eyes Prediction Market, Plans to Explore Zero Opening Fee Model to Challenge Polymarket
Hyperliquid is accelerating its entry into the prediction market arena, planning to compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi through a newly launched "outcome tokens" mechanism.According to the recently disclosed fee structure, Hyperliquid adopts a "zero fee for opening positions, fees for closing or settlement" model for event trading, covering scenarios such as minting, trading, burning, and settlement. The platform also offers lower transaction costs for "aligned quote tokens," including market-making rebate increases and fee discount mechanisms. This feature will be introduced through the HIP-4 upgrade, enabling users to trade binary contracts based on real-world events within a single account, integrated with the existing spot and perpetual contract system to form a unified trading environment.The prediction market has grown rapidly in recent years, with total trading volume exceeding $63.5 billion in 2025. Hyperliquid's previously launched HIP-3 has driven its permissionless perpetual contract market to account for over 35% of the platform's trading volume. Currently, event tokens are still in the testnet phase, and the mainnet launch date has not yet been announced. However, the industry widely expects this to become a crucial infrastructure for Hyperliquid to challenge the existing prediction market landscape. (CoinDesk)
Galaxy Reports Q1 Earnings: Net Loss of $216 Million Amid Crypto Market Downturn
Galaxy Digital has released its financial results for the first quarter of 2026, showing a net loss of $216 million for Q1, impacted by the downturn in the crypto asset market during the quarter. The diluted and adjusted loss per share was $0.49. Adjusted gross loss for the period was $88 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss was $188 million. As of March 31, Galaxy Digital's total equity stood at $2.8 billion, holding $2.6 billion in cash and stablecoins.In terms of digital asset business, Galaxy's assets under management reached $5 billion, with staked assets totaling $3.2 billion. BlackRock has selected Galaxy as the validator for its staked Ethereum exchange-traded fund, the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF. Additionally, Galaxy has delivered the first data hall at the Helios data center to CoreWeave, officially beginning revenue recognition, and expects to complete the delivery of the first phase's 133 megawatts of critical IT load by the end of Q2 2026. (PRNewswire)
XBIT Surpasses $36 Million in Trading Volume Within Just One Month of Launch, Ranking Top 4 Among Polymarket Builders
as of the end of April, crypto trading aggregation platform XBIT ranked 4th on the official Polymarket Builder leaderboard with a monthly trading volume of $36.12 million.The project was officially launched in early April, and XBIT has recently passed the official Polymarket Builder review.Currently, XBIT has launched two core categories: Prediction Market and Perpetual Contracts (Perp DEX). Its next step is to launch a leveraged prediction market, further enriching the aggregated trading experience.
Venus Protocol Announces Closure of vSXP Market on May 11
Venus Protocol announced that, due to insufficient oracle support and continuously declining liquidity, the vSXP market will be unable to price assets after May 11, and Venus Protocol has officially decided to shut down this market. Venus Protocol urges users to close all positions in this market before May 11. According to the official statement, Venus Protocol will bear no responsibility for any funds remaining unwithdrawn by that date.
Related news
Polymarket probability of “CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026” rises to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
JPMorgan: Growth in Stablecoin Usage May Not Necessarily Drive Market Cap Expansion
JPMorgan analysts pointed out that despite the rapid growth in stablecoin transaction volume, the overall market size may not expand at the same pace, with the key reason being the increase in "velocity."The report states that as stablecoins are increasingly adopted in payment scenarios, the same unit of capital is being used more frequently, thereby enhancing overall efficiency and limiting the need for additional stablecoin supply.The bank maintains a relatively cautious outlook, predicting that the total stablecoin market cap will reach approximately $500 billion to $600 billion by 2028, and considers the market's expectation of a "trillion-dollar scale" to be overly optimistic.
Greeks.live: Altcoin Market Sees Limited Recovery; Altcoin Trading Still Requires Patience
Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on platform X that on May 1st, a total of 23,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.13, a max pain point of $76,000, and a notional value of $1.74 billion. Additionally, 175,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.94, a max pain point of $2,325, and a notional value of $400 million.He pointed out that market volatility was relatively low this week, with Bitcoin fluctuating around the $78,000 level. Market sentiment has gradually calmed, short-term RV has dropped significantly, and combined with the monthly expiry releasing nearly a quarter of position margins, the implied volatility (IV) for major-term options has decreased notably this week. The IV for Bitcoin's main tenors has all fallen below 40%, while the decline in ETH's main tenors was even larger, with short-term IV dropping below 50% and medium-to-long-term IV falling below 60%.Looking at the key options data, Skew remains relatively stable, maintaining a mildly bearish directional sentiment in the market. Only 6% of options expired this week, with approximately 25% of open interest expiring at the end of May and about 30% at the end of June. Block trades are relatively inactive, all signaling a period of consolidation.He further stated that in April of this year, Bitcoin significantly outperformed the first three months in terms of both price and market attention. However, altcoins have shown only limited recovery. The current strategy is primarily centered on Bitcoin, and one should wait before engaging in altcoin trading.
a16z Crypto Proposes Five Regulatory Recommendations: Framework Should Not Be Overly Conservative; CFTC Should Implement Unified Regulation
In an article titled “Getting Prediction Market Regulation Right,” Miles Jennings, Policy Lead and General Counsel of a16z Crypto, and others argue that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s current efforts to reform the regulatory framework for prediction markets come at a critical juncture—prediction markets are evolving from niche products into essential infrastructure. When combined with AI- and blockchain-driven novel risk-management models, prediction markets can enable AI agents to automatically hedge risk, adjust on-chain event contract positions in real time, and play a central role in risk management, information aggregation, and truth assessment. a16z Crypto warns that an overly conservative regulatory framework would constrain the growth potential of prediction markets. Accordingly, it has submitted a comment letter offering recommendations on key issues—including the application of statutory core principles and CFTC regulations to prediction markets, public interest considerations related to event contracts—and proposing five regulatory recommendations for prediction markets: (1) granting the CFTC unified regulatory authority over event contracts; (2) optimizing dispute resolution mechanisms for such contracts; (3) strengthening monitoring of insider trading and market manipulation; (4) re-evaluating the “special rules”; and (5) exploring clearer compliance pathways for on-chain prediction markets.
Reddit Announces Q2 Earnings Guidance: Revenue Expected to Be $715–$725 Million, Above Market Expectations
According to Reuters, Reddit announced its Q2 2026 financial guidance, forecasting revenue of $715–$725 million—above the market expectation of $711.6 million—and adjusted EBITDA of $285–$295 million—also exceeding analysts’ consensus estimate of $277.1 million. Additionally, the number of active advertisers rose 75% year-on-year; revenue climbed 69% year-on-year to $663 million—surpassing the market expectation of $610.9 million; daily active unique visitors increased 17% year-on-year to 126.8 million; and global average revenue per user (ARPU) rose 44%. Reddit stated it is continuously enhancing advertising efficiency through AI-powered tools—including an AI ad copy generator tailored for Reddit’s environment—and performance-based ads driven by these AI tools now account for over 60% of total advertising revenue.
U.S. Senate Bans Lawmakers from Participating in Prediction Market Trading
The U.S. Senate has unanimously passed a resolution (S. Res. 708) prohibiting senators from participating in prediction market trading, effective immediately. The proposal, introduced by Bernie Moreno, aims to curb speculative trading using non-public information.Several recent related incidents have drawn regulatory attention, including cases where individuals profited from prediction markets using confidential information. Meanwhile, platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are also strengthening internal controls to prevent insider trading.At the state level, New York and Illinois have also implemented similar measures, restricting public officials from using non-public information to participate in prediction markets.