News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Strategy's enterprise valuation has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its enterprise value to net asset multiple (mNAV) dropping below 1 for the first time, signaling a shift in the market's valuation logic for the company.Data shows that Strategy's current stock price is approximately $82, down about 85% from its all-time high in November 2024. Its enterprise value stands at around $50.4 billion, while the value of its Bitcoin holdings is approximately $51.1 billion (calculated at roughly $60,000 per Bitcoin). This means the market currently values the entire company at less than the value of the Bitcoin it holds.For a long time, the market valued Strategy significantly higher than its Bitcoin reserve, allowing the company to raise capital at a premium and continuously accumulate more Bitcoin. This model has been considered a key foundation of Michael Saylor's capital strategy. However, with the mNAV now below 1, raising capital through new equity issuance could potentially have a dilutive effect on existing shareholders.Analysts point out that this change makes Strategy's valuation structure more akin to a "closed-end fund," similar to the discount trading state observed in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during different market cycles. Such structures typically lack effective arbitrage mechanisms, making it difficult for discounts or premiums to correct quickly.However, unlike traditional closed-end funds, Strategy still possesses a variety of capital instruments, including debt financing, equity financing, software business cash flow, and capital structure management. In theory, this provides a degree of flexibility to navigate market volatility. (CoinDesk)
US stock futures fell across the board on Friday, with the tech sector leading the decline, as market concerns over rising AI infrastructure costs and a slowdown in fundraising pace intensified. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.2%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.5%, and Dow Jones futures lost 67 points (-0.1%). Chip stocks broadly weakened following reports that OpenAI is considering postponing its IPO until next year, citing increased volatility in AI-related stocks, unstable market sentiment, and even the impact of SpaceX’s weak post-IPO performance.JPMorgan's trading desk noted that this news has reinforced market concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments and could affect the pace of future capital market fundraising. Vital Knowledge analyst Adam Crisafulli also stated that the IPO delay could slow down the overall expansion rate of AI infrastructure spending.In the chip sector, Philadelphia Semiconductor-related stocks came under pressure, with ON Semiconductor falling over 13% after acquiring Synaptics. Micron Technology and SanDisk both declined by more than 5%. The XLK ETF tracking the tech sector fell 1.6%, extending the previous session's losses. (CNBC)
Odaily News: Market reports indicate that SpaceX (SPCX.O) credit derivatives have begun trading following its first bond issuance.
According to the latest macro-trend report released by QCP Group, market focus is shifting from the “signing-related optimism” surrounding multiple macro events toward post-signing execution risks. The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been formally signed; Brent crude oil prices have retreated below USD 80 per barrel, easing tail risks. However, traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains at just 14 transits—well below normal levels—and a 60-day technical negotiation window has now opened. Market pricing is pivoting toward actual tanker flow volumes and progress on compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire. The Federal Reserve unanimously held interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but signaled its intention to keep rates higher for longer. The median dot-plot projection for 2026 was raised to 3.8% (up from 3.4%), with the range widened to 3.4%–4.4%; forward guidance was simultaneously scrapped. Core PCE inflation forecasts stand at 3.30%, and headline PCE at 3.82%—both above target—confirming that inflation—not growth—remains the primary constraint. Following its IPO, SpaceX’s stock price has declined approximately 27% from its peak of USD 211 to USD 155, yet it remains 14.5% above its IPO price of USD 135. Market narrative has shifted from IPO momentum to AI financing logic: its USD 20 billion note issuance is earmarked to refinance an xAI bridge loan, while the ~USD 60 billion Anysphere/Cursor transaction converts equity into acquisition currency. SpaceX is now being integrated into the AI capital formation cycle. In the crypto market, S
Citrini Research, the institution behind the "AI Doomsday Report," stated that bond issuance by hyperscalers in 2027 to 2028 could be more than double current market expectations, primarily to support the construction of AI data centers.Citrini Research pointed out that AI-related debt issuance is expected to approach $570 billion in 2026, while hyperscalers' capital expenditures have already exceeded $600 billion. Amid the continued push for AI infrastructure development, these companies are gradually shifting from relying on cash reserves to raising more funds through the bond market.
Bitcoin has dropped approximately 40% since Strategy launched its Bitcoin financing instrument, STRC, which has now fallen below its $100 issuance par value. This has sparked market debate over the sustainability of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin “flywheel” model. Strategy currently holds over 846,000 BTC, but its purchase pace has notably slowed recently. Data shows that during the week ending June 8, the company added 1,550 BTC, worth approximately $101 million. The following week, ending June 15, it added another 1,587 BTC, valued at about $100 million. In contrast, during a single week in April 2026, the firm bought 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion, indicating a significant decline in its recent capital deployment.Meanwhile, Strategy previously sold 32 BTC to meet dividend obligations. While minimal relative to its total holdings, the market views this as a sign that cash flow pressures could intensify if STRC’s funding efficiency declines. STRC was originally designed as a preferred stock instrument trading near its $100 par value, using dividend adjustments to attract investors and help Strategy raise capital for Bitcoin purchases. STRC has now fallen to historic lows, once dropping to $82.53 before closing at $88.59—roughly 13% below par value.Critics argue that STRC’s dip below par indicates mounting pressure on Strategy’s funding channels. Peter Schiff, a long-time Bitcoin critic, labeled STRC “a typical centralized Ponzi scheme,” claiming the model relies on continuous financing or Bitcoin sales to sustain itself. Crypto trader DonAlt also questioned STRC’s recent performance, describing its trading behavior as resembling a “Ponzi scheme.”However, some analysts believe STRC’s decline is more due to leverage liquidations than a fundamental deterioration of Strategy. STRC had long traded around $99 to $100, attracting leveraged traders. When the price broke below a key level, forced liquidations were triggered, exacerbating the drop.Analyst Scott Melker noted that STRC’s current yield has actually improved due to the discount. Since dividends are calculated based on the $100 liquidation preference, at an STRC price of $90, the 11.5% annualized dividend translates to an actual yield of about 12.8%. If the price falls to $85, the yield could exceed 13%.Strategy is expected to announce its next STRC dividend adjustment by June 30. The market is now focused on whether the STRC discount will persist and whether Strategy’s model of using capital market financing to continuously accumulate BTC can remain stable. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily, "White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X, reviewing his past experiences where his investment views faced skepticism. He stated that many original investment ideas initially face strong opposition, but ultimately the market becomes the standard for judging right and wrong. He has faced significant criticism for being bullish on several companies, for example:$AXTI: Early on, it was questioned as a "scam company," and related discussions even led to a ban from Reddit's WSB forum. However, it later received coverage from Reuters, and the performance of the Indium Phosphide (InP) substrate industry company, along with institutional investor validation, confirmed its logic.$RPI: Initially labeled a "meme stock" by the market, analysts believed it lacked fundamentals. However, earnings reports showed the company's future revenue growth expectation reached 58%, and it was subsequently re-evaluated as a high-growth AI hardware company.$SIVE: Once considered a "meme stock" by numerous investors, it later gained institutional buying support, including attention from Fidelity Research, JPMorgan Chase, and others, and announced partnerships with companies like Jabil and GlobalFoundries.Serenity stated, "The market will ultimately decide what is right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X (formerly Twitter)." He added that as each investment thesis gets validated one by one, the eventual market performance overshadows the early noise. He also listed several other cases that were initially doubted but later gained market recognition, including:$AAOI: Near $30, management was questioned as "untrustworthy";$LITE: At $300, the photonics industry was considered to be in a bubble;$RKLB: At $20, it was dismissed as just a low-revenue launch company;$HOOD: At $20, it faced negative sentiment due to the GameStop trading restriction incident;$IQE: Considered just a small UK company lacking partnerships in the photonics field;$SOI: Analysts at a European bank considered its valuation too high;$NBIS: Questioned for having no competitive moat;$INTC: The market thought it couldn't compete with TSMC;$MRVL: The market feared its ASIC market share would be taken by Broadcom;$AEHR: The market misinterpreted its earnings report, thinking the company lacked revenue;$EWY: The market believed the South Korean semiconductor cycle was in a bubble.
Jiang Zhuoer stated in a post that MicroStrategy (MSTR) currently holds approximately $55 billion in Bitcoin assets, corresponding to an annual dividend payment of about $1.7 billion for its STRC preferred stock. Theoretically, selling BTC could cover dividend requirements for roughly 32 years.STRC is classified as preferred stock rather than a debt instrument, so there is no traditional mandatory principal repayment pressure. From a financial structure perspective, MSTR does not face "liquidation-style leverage risk" or short-term solvency crises. However, the discussion itself reflects growing market concerns about the company's long-term cash flow and cryptocurrency asset volatility. STRC has already experienced significant discount fluctuations, limiting its refinancing capabilities.Furthermore, MSTR has recently relied more on issuing common stock (which may dilute BTC per share when mNAV is below 1) to fund its BTC accumulation. This strategy is difficult to sustain over the long term.Jiang Zhuoer indicated that even if the scale of MSTR's actual BTC sales to pay dividends is relatively small compared to the broader market, the symbolic significance may be more important. It could pressure market confidence and prompt investors to reassess the possibility of "long-term passive BTC selling." Market understanding of this structure is not uniform, and this divergence in perception itself could become an important factor influencing expectations and sentiment.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark and dropping about 4% from its intraday high.This meeting marked the Fed's fourth consecutive pause, but the latest dot plot indicates a significant shift towards a hawkish policy path: several officials now expect the possibility of further rate hikes this year, further diminishing the market's pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change has a greater impact than the rate decision itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.Market data shows that Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 following the announcement, before quickly reversing downward amid heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume notably expanded, indicating active selling-driven declines. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant inbound capital from bargain hunting.In stark contrast is gold's performance. Spot gold rapidly recovered after briefly dipping to around $4,220, climbing back above the $4,300 level to trade near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive attributes and capital absorption capacity. Even against a backdrop of easing geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.Market participants pointed out that the core divergence in this round of reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold completed a swift recovery under the same macroeconomic shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key level of $64,000, highlighting the higher sensitivity of risk assets to "higher-for-longer interest rates."Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase of "loose expectations supporting risk assets" to one of "hawkish path suppressing valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can re-enter the $64,000–$65,000 range with volume confirming stability; otherwise, a weak consolidation structure may persist.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Will Anthropic's valuation reach $1.1 trillion before June 30" has risen to 67%, up 30% in 24 hours.This event will be settled based on Anthropic's private market valuation data released by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM). If Anthropic's NPM Price reaches or exceeds the specified amount between the market creation and June 30, 2026, the event will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No".Anthropic's latest funding round was completed on May 28, achieving a post-money valuation of $965 billion after its $65 billion Series H round, just one step away from common short-term thresholds like $1 trillion. With this prediction market set to settle on June 30, traders are monitoring secondary market liquidity and whether any new primary financing or tender offer activity could push its implied valuation higher within the remaining window. Recent estimates show Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate is approaching $47 billion, continuing to support investor demand. However, no new funding announcements have emerged since late May, and IPO preparations remain longer-term.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
According to a report by the Star Market Daily, multiple investment institutions have confirmed that DeepSeek’s Series A funding round has likely been finalized. Founder Liang Wenfeng personally contributed approximately RMB 20 billion, making him the largest single investor in this round; Tencent contributed approximately RMB 10 billion; the CATL ecosystem—including CATL and Puquan Capital—contributed approximately RMB 5 billion; NetEase, JD.com, Monolith Lisi Capital, and IDG Capital each contributed approximately RMB 3 billion; Zhengxin Valley Investment and Shixiang Technology each contributed approximately RMB 1.5 billion.
Odaily News According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) official website, the STAR Market IPO application of Shanghai Enflame Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Enflame") has been reviewed and approved by the exchange's listing review committee. Enflame initiated its IPO辅导 in August 2024 and completed the辅导 evaluation in January this year. Notably, the company changed its sponsor from CICC to CITIC Securities in October last year, and its listing application was accepted by the SSE on January 12, 2025.According to the prospectus, Enflame Technology plans to raise 6 billion yuan for the research and development and industrialization projects of its fifth-generation AI chip series, the research and development and industrialization projects of its sixth-generation AI chip series, and an advanced AI software and hardware collaborative innovation project. (Caixin)
on-chain analyst Ai Yi posted on platform X, stating that SPCX is about to launch, and the total share capital of SpaceX has been adjusted to 13.08 billion shares, an increase of 10%. Under the same total valuation, the pre-market contract prices will shrink by 10%, affecting platforms that have previously listed this asset and their users. Exchanges such as Binance have followed up with a rebase, and the perpetual DEX Aster has also chosen to proactively adjust to prevent user losses. TradeXYZ has announced that it will not make any adjustments, adhering to its stance as a "price-based perpetual contract," leading to long positions suffering losses. It stated that stock splits are not uncommon in US stocks, where large-cap tech stocks undergo forward stock splits due to excessively high single-share values to facilitate trading. The TradeXYZ team indicated that a solution will be provided.
financial infrastructure company TVL Capital announced the completion of a $5 million funding round, led by Framework Ventures, with participation from Flow Traders and other institutions. Co-founder Lars previously served as Head of Market Research at The Block. The company's products are benchmarked against traditional exchange-traded products, aiming to build compliant, composable derivatives and diversified yield structures, primarily targeting institutional investors to meet various structured investment and yield management needs.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.
According to The Information, as AI unicorns continue to attract massive capital inflows, venture capital (VC) firms are accelerating their fundraising efforts at an unprecedented pace. Founders Fund has already launched a new $6 billion fund this year to invest in late-stage growth companies—the first time in the firm’s 20-year history that it has raised capital from limited partners (LPs) less than two years after its previous fundraise. Reportedly, Founders Fund’s $4.6 billion fund raised in 2025 has been largely deployed, with capital allocated primarily across seven standout companies—averaging $600 million per investment—including AI and tech leaders such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Ramp, and Cognition. Market observers believe that the sustained heating of the generative AI sector, coupled with surging funding needs among top AI companies, is propelling the global venture capital industry into a new fundraising and investment cycle—and driving large funds to deploy and replenish capital at an unprecedented speed.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 last week, recording its worst single-week performance since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. In the seven days through Sunday, Bitcoin accumulated a decline of 16%, retreating over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.Multiple market analysts have warned that the current rebound may be difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still "a considerable distance" from a "true bottom."Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total outflows reaching approximately $5.5 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin last week fell below the 200-week moving average, widely regarded as a key support level, further weakening market confidence. Paul Howard, a senior executive at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market conditions as a "silent bear market," arguing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is a significant confirmation signal that the market has entered a bear phase.Analysts point out that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the reversal of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong U.S. employment data are driving the market to reassess the rate path. A high-interest-rate environment is unfavorable for the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets. Additionally, some capital is flowing out of the crypto market into artificial intelligence and technology stock sectors.Despite this, the magnitude of the current correction is still smaller than historical bear market cycles. In past bear markets, Bitcoin typically retraced about 80% from its peak, whereas this cycle's decline is approximately 50%. Some traders believe that if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate and companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin face financing pressures, the market still faces further downside risks in the future. (Bloomberg)
According to an independent analyst report by Markus Thielen on June 9, just days remain before SpaceX’s IPO, and market expectations continue to intensify. There is currently little indication that SpaceX will raise its expected offering price of $135, suggesting the targeted fundraising amount of $7.5 billion has already been substantially subscribed. Meanwhile, pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts tied to SpaceX are trading at $157 on Hyperliquid and $169 on Binance—both significantly above the expected offering price—with implied valuations on both platforms approaching $2 trillion. Although prices have retreated from earlier highs near $200, prediction markets still assign a 68% probability that SpaceX’s valuation will exceed $2 trillion by year-end, reflecting traders’ broad expectation of a strong IPO performance.
Odaily Odaily notes that Stephen Davies, founder and CEO of Javelin Wealth Management, stated that the current market’s investment enthusiasm for SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI has significantly outpaced their fundamentals. The valuations of these companies have already priced in a substantial amount of future growth expectations. While artificial intelligence has real-world applications and long-term value, the market still needs clearer verification of profitability. Without stable proof of earnings, the valuation expansion of AI-related assets carries the risk of excessive optimism.Regarding SpaceX, Stephen Davies believes the company still needs to establish a stronger track record of commercialization and market performance before it can become a core allocation in his portfolio. Overall, the current valuation levels of some high-growth tech assets have entered a "somewhat extreme" range, and investors should pay more attention to actual earnings support. (CNBC)
“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity posted on platform X, stating that Jabil (JBL), currently with a market cap of approximately $38 billion, represents an attractive long-term investment opportunity. The market may not have fully priced in the potential value of its 1.6T LRO pluggable optical module business.By the first half of 2027, the industry bottleneck may no longer be insufficient demand, but rather the production capacity limitations of key upstream supplier SIVE. In this context, leveraging its mature global supply chain system and the advantage of taking over Intel's (INTC) pluggable optical module production line, Jabil is well-positioned to benefit from the demand growth driven by AI infrastructure construction. Compared to Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), which relies on continuous capital expenditure to expand laser factories, if SIVE and multiple foundries including Win Semi achieve mass production of lasers, Jabil's backend manufacturing and integration model will prove more scalable.Serenity stated that Jabil currently possesses a supply chain system validated by hyperscale cloud service providers, exhibiting a growth trajectory similar to that of Innolight, while also enjoying a valuation premium in the US market. He expects that as the market gradually recognizes the relevant opportunities by the first half of 2027, Jabil has approximately 40% room for valuation revaluation. However, he emphasized that he currently holds no positions and is merely sharing research ideas for investors' reference.