News linked to both this project and an event.
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report stating that prediction market trading volume is expected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2025 to approximately $100 billion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 80%. Trading volume is projected to reach $24 billion in 2026, while Polymarket and Kalshi combined have already generated $60 billion in trading volume year-to-date. The report identifies three core drivers of this growth: increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level, blockchain infrastructure enabling global liquidity, and integration with mainstream trading platforms. Industry revenue is expected to rise from approximately $400 million in 2025 to about $10.8 billion in 2030. Distribution capability is viewed as a key competitive barrier. Robinhood has achieved an annualized revenue run-rate of $350 million from prediction markets and is advancing its exchange infrastructure development; Coinbase, meanwhile, offers nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts via the Kalshi platform. Bernstein maintains an “Outperform” rating on both companies.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice jointly filed an application with a federal court on Tuesday evening seeking to block Arizona from enforcing its state gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi. The two agencies argue that Kalshi’s contracts—tied to real-world events such as sporting events and elections—are, in substance, financial derivatives (swaps) subject to the Commodity Exchange Act and the federal regulatory framework, rather than state-level gambling regulations. Arizona had previously brought criminal charges against Kalshi, with a trial scheduled for April 13. Courts across the country have issued conflicting rulings: the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit (New Jersey) has leaned toward supporting the federal regulatory position, while other district courts have remained open to the state’s arguments.