News linked to both this project and an event.
Institutional crypto trading platform Talos has integrated prediction market operator Kalshi, allowing some clients to trade Kalshi's event contracts and crypto perpetual contracts through existing digital asset trading infrastructure without needing a separate connection. Talos will provide algorithmic order types such as Iceberg, TWAP, and POV, as well as multi-leg execution for perpetual-to-perpetual and perpetual-to-spot spread trades. Institutional clients can also execute block trades of Kalshi contracts through its RFQ platform using participating OTC liquidity providers. Talos plans to expand its trading software to brokers and trading platforms later this year, enabling them to offer Kalshi event contracts directly to their clients upon authorization, and to launch a unified prediction market data feed that standardizes events, trades, order books, open interest, and implied probabilities across multiple platforms. A CoinGecko report shows that the prediction market recorded a notional trading volume of $113.8 billion in Q2, a 48.7% quarter-over-quarter increase; notional trading volume in June reached $52.8 billion, setting a new monthly record. Kalshi's market share rose from 42.4% in Q1 to 58.9%, while Polymarket's fell from 35.8% to 30.2%.
that, according to Daniel Wallach, a U.S. Washington State court has issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, ruling that its operations violate Washington state gambling laws and constitute illegal gambling activities; moreover, the Commodity Exchange Act does not have the authority to supersede state-level gambling laws.
According to The Block, Bernstein stated that before the compliant computing power futures planned by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are approved, AI computing power derivatives adopting crypto market mechanisms have already launched. Currently, Architect's offshore trading platform AX has launched GPU perpetual futures, while Kalshi has listed GPU rental price event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating a potential insider trading incident involving the prediction market platform Kalshi. A staff member allegedly responsible for operating President Trump's teleprompter is accused of placing bets on related prediction event contracts.According to reports, this individual may have used early access to information about Trump's public remarks to wager on the Kalshi platform regarding whether Trump's related statements would be released or contain specific phrasing. Currently, the CFTC is investigating whether the relevant trades involved the use of non-public information and whether they violated prediction market trading rules.This investigation has once again raised market concerns about the risk of insider trading in prediction markets. As trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow rapidly, prediction contracts involving political, economic, and public events are increasingly coming under regulatory scrutiny. (CNBC)
According to The Block, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially ordered prediction market platform Kalshi on July 14 to honor all trades involving Michigan residents, directly countering a 14-day injunction previously issued by a Michigan court—which required Kalshi to stop offering sports-related event contracts and cancel some executed trades. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that state governments lack the authority to compel registered Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) to violate federal obligations, as forcibly canceling executed trades would create a ripple effect across the entire market, severely undermining market contractual certainty. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, however, maintained that Kalshi is essentially an unauthorized online gambling platform and that state gambling laws apply to it.
Odaily, Polymarket-based DeFi startup Gondor has announced the launch of Gondor v1, claiming it will be the first margin account product for Polymarket. The version is expected to go live publicly in September.Gondor v1 will allow users to manage cross-margining across their entire Polymarket portfolio, using the full portfolio as collateral for loans. Users can then use the credit line to purchase more prediction market shares, achieving higher capital efficiency and leverage operations.This marks an expansion from the beta version Gondor launched seven months ago. The previous product primarily allowed users to take out loans against individual Polymarket positions, while v1 expands the collateral scope to the entire portfolio.Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi typically operate on a full collateral model, requiring users to deposit the entire risk amount upfront and lock up funds until the event is settled. Gondor aims to unlock this locked capital through portfolio margining and lending mechanisms, allowing users to gain additional liquidity and continue placing bets without immediately selling their positions.
: Prediction market platform Kalshi has officially launched the beta version of its professional trading terminal, Kalshi Pro. The product is targeted at high-frequency, professional event traders to meet real-time trading demands across multiple markets. The terminal is equipped with several institutional-grade features, including real-time public trade data feeds, full order book depth, multi-leg contract calculation, and batch order management. It also introduces professional charting tools and position risk management tools tailored for perpetual contracts. Kalshi Product Lead Andy Chang stated that active traders now view prediction markets and perpetual contracts as standardized trading asset classes comparable to stocks and bonds. Kalshi Pro aims to provide professional investors with the complete suite of institutional trading capabilities they require. (CNBC)
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)
Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett tweeted that Judge Analisa Torres of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York denied its preliminary injunction application in the case involving Kalshi, allowing the case to proceed to the motion to dismiss stage. The court held that New York State gambling law applies to Kalshi's sports event contracts, and such application is not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. This ruling means Kalshi has suffered another unfavorable setback in the relevant legal dispute.
Odaily Odaily reporter: Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has urged his subordinates to explore partnerships with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Meanwhile, Meta is developing a similar prediction market application called Arena.Executives said that Arena is currently in internal testing and may not be released in the future. The application will rely on points similar to those in video games, rather than accepting real money bets. Meta aims to attract at least 100 million monthly active users for the application and plans to eventually integrate some of Arena's features into Facebook and Messenger. (Reuters)
Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that former U.S. Acting Solicitor General Prelogar, representing the Coalition for Prediction Markets, has submitted an amicus brief supporting Kalshi to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, describing it as a “masterpiece.” Paul Grewal pointed out that the document not only outlines the historical background of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets but also presents three key arguments:1. Prediction markets can uniquely aggregate market information and convert it into simple price signals, collectively aggregated by market participants.2. Users of prediction markets trade at prices that market participants are willing to accept. They cannot control contract prices and bear the legal obligation to provide users with fair access to contracts.3. The laws of various U.S. states are unsuitable for regulating prediction markets because their core objectives are not to maintain fair markets, price discovery, information aggregation, risk hedging, or prevent market manipulation.
data released by a16z crypto shows prediction market trading volume has set a new all-time high for the third consecutive week. Last week, total market trading volume reached $14.4 billion for the first time, a significant increase from approximately $5–6 billion at the beginning of the year. The previous peak of around $10 billion was set just a week prior. Additionally, open interest rose to $1.6 billion, hitting a new record for the third straight week, indicating that the pace of new position opening continues to outpace closing, resulting in ever-expanding capital exposure. Notably, growth in non-sports markets—covering areas such as macroeconomics and unexpected events—has been particularly pronounced. Last week, combined trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $3.6 billion, already surpassing the total volume of all prediction market categories last year.
the U.S. CFTC on Tuesday sued Kentucky, attempting to prevent the state from regulating prediction market platforms as illegal sports betting and gambling operations, further establishing federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.Previously, Kentucky had last week sued platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed illegal sports betting and gambling businesses within the state.In its complaint filed with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, the CFTC stated that Kentucky’s attempt to shut down federally regulated designated contract markets interferes with the federal regulatory system established by Congress for the national swaps market. The agency claims "exclusive jurisdiction" over event contracts and prediction market products.Kentucky has become the ninth state that the CFTC has sued in the prediction market regulatory dispute, indicating that the conflict between federal derivatives regulation and state-level gambling oversight continues to escalate.
Odaily Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its Chairman Michael Selig in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, concerning the agency's routine approval of cryptocurrency perpetual futures. The lawsuit stems from the CFTC’s May 29 approval of a perpetual futures contract linked to the spot price of Bitcoin by prediction market platform Kalshi, and the issuance of a no-action position for a similar product on the Coinbase exchange. In the filing, CME argues that the CFTC's treatment of "futures" with expiration dates as "swaps" violates directives from the U.S. Congress and the Commodity Exchange Act, and requests the court to invalidate the relevant perpetual futures actions. CME also claims that Selig acted unilaterally without a full panel of five commissioners. A CFTC spokesperson stated that CME is waging a "legal battle" against the agency and the government’s crypto policy, calling the lawsuit "frivolous." Kraken has also announced the launch of perpetual futures trading for U.S. users via the CFTC-regulated platform Bitnomial.
According to CoinDesk, the Kentucky Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of offering illegal sports betting services without proper licensing in the state. The complaint also alleges that the relevant platforms and their partners failed to provide gambling addiction support resources as required by state law.
Odaily Odaily, Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour said in an interview with FOX: "Honestly, when I think of our competitors, it's not Polymarket I think of the most, but some other platforms. We are surrounded by a group of competitors."In a follow-up interview, Tarek primarily mentioned CME and Robinhood. CME previously assisted gambling giant FanDuel in launching its own prediction market product, while Robinhood has also launched its in-house prediction market, Rothera. Additionally, Tarek also mentioned DraftKings, Novig, and Coinbase.
Odaily Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have announced plans to accelerate the deployment of anti-fraud measures during the World Cup to combat potential fraudulent groups, while continuing to expand the coverage of tradable events.According to reports, both companies are introducing more real-world events into prediction markets to enhance user engagement and market liquidity. As transaction volumes continue to grow, related fraudulent activities have also increased. It is reported that Kalshi's annualized revenue reached approximately $1.5 billion in May of this year. (The Information)
prediction market platform Kalshi is internally deploying an AI agent system named "Harrison" to optimize its prediction market contract designs and stress-test betting outcomes, aiming to reduce the risk of errors and ambiguities in large-scale trading. According to co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, the AI tool is being used to handle critical internal processes for the platform's millions of daily transactions, focusing on resolving complexities in the wording and rules of event contracts covering areas such as political elections, sports events, and award outcomes.Kalshi stated that "Harrison" is helping the team identify potential vulnerabilities in contract designs in advance, reducing disputes caused by unclear definitions, thereby enhancing market operational stability and execution efficiency. As the scale of prediction market trading expands, this AI system is seen as a significant upgrade to the infrastructure layer, contributing to improved contract standardization and automated governance capabilities. (Bloomberg)
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)