News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi's 15-minute gold market recorded 542 million contracts traded in September, with estimated fees of approximately $5 million, surpassing the Ethereum market's 318 million contracts and $2.6 million; the Bitcoin market's estimated fees during the same period reached $60.4 million.The gold contract was launched in August, allowing traders to bet on whether gold would rise or fall within 15 minutes. Kalshi stated that its commodity trading volume reached $400 million within 7 months of launch, more than 4 times the trading volume of the crypto market during the same period.In the 7 days ending October 5, fees from 15-minute crypto, commodity, and financial markets reached $20.4 million, accounting for 80% of the platform's non-sports fees; this category of markets contributed 13% of trading volume and 20% of fees. (Cointelegraph)
According to Ariel Givner, Judge Pacold of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois issued a ruling supporting a partial preliminary injunction in a lawsuit involving Coinbase, Kalshi, and the U.S. federal government/U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, thwarting Illinois' attempt to classify sports event contracts on the prediction market platform Kalshi under the state's gambling regulations in its initial legal push.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has submitted two proposed rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB): one would formally classify event contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood under the regulatory definition of "swaps"; the other would explicitly exclude casino-style gambling products from the swaps category. This move aims to respond to recent federal court rulings—the Sixth and Eighth Circuits both ruled that Kalshi's sports-related contracts do not qualify as swaps and should be subject to state gambling regulations, while the Third Circuit upheld the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets. With conflicting rulings across the circuits, the matter may ultimately need to be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court. Currently, the CFTC comprises only one commissioner, Chair Mike Selig, with all related decisions made solely by him.
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former U.S. Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger for using a Kalshi account on a prediction market platform to bet on whether he would receive a presidential pardon. The trades occurred between December 2024 and January 2025.Kinzinger confirmed that he participated in contract trading related to his own pardon and whether Biden would issue a preventive pardon, stating that he made approximately 25 trades, with the majority resulting in losses overall, and that the related trading generated a profit of $823. He denied any wrongdoing, saying he did not possess non-public information. (Decrypt)
According to Cointelegraph, Kalshi has won a significant ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, allowing it to continue operating its event contracts business in Ohio and Tennessee.
Odaily News: The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued a staff advisory on September 22 stating that contracts tied to specific individuals' statements, appearances, or interactions are more susceptible to manipulation risks, requiring exchanges to explain protective measures on a contract-by-contract basis, including whether outcome determiners are bound by independent obligations, whether they may be subject to pressure, whether outcomes can be externally verified, and whether monitoring mechanisms are suited to the relevant risks.The document represents staff views and does not constitute binding rules, nor does it prohibit such markets. The CFTC also disclosed that a White House teleprompter operator once used early access to speech drafts to trade such contracts, earning $107,500; Kalshi subsequently still listed the relevant market and said it had responded to prior discussions with the CFTC.
Odaily reports: DoubleZero has launched a dedicated fiber market data service for decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, enabling professional trading institutions to obtain complete order book data via fiber optics rather than relying solely on public APIs.The service covers Hyperliquid's native perpetual contracts as well as markets operated by trade[XYZ], which provides perpetual contracts linked to assets such as crude oil, gold, and silver on Hyperliquid's infrastructure.DoubleZero's Edge market data service had previously integrated with Solana and prediction market Kalshi, making Hyperliquid the third platform to adopt the service. (Cointelegraph)
Odaily reports: The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) has filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court in support of the New Jersey Attorney General and gambling regulators' petition to hear their case against prediction market platform Kalshi. The petition seeks to clarify whether state governments or federal agencies have jurisdiction over prediction market companies.NCLGS stated that if the ruling favors Kalshi, states would be unable to regulate sports betting within prediction markets, potentially leading to regulatory confusion. The council believes that gambling-related matters should be handled by state regulators, and noted that casinos and other regulated entities may adjust their operations and products accordingly.New Jersey authorities filed a petition for a writ of certiorari on September 2, stemming from their appeal of a Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruling. Kalshi has not yet formally responded and must submit its position brief by November 9; the company has previously stated that it cannot be regulated separately by 50 different regulators. (Cointelegraph)
New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to rule on whether sports prediction activities conducted by prediction markets such as Kalshi constitute illegal sports gambling. Previously, a federal appellate court upheld state regulatory authority, prompting more states and tribes to intervene in related litigation.
Odaily News: A person familiar with the matter revealed that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating Kalshi for suspected wash trading. Since August, Kalshi traders have executed nearly 1 million trades in the Ethereum futures market, with each trade being almost identical in size, drawing the attention of federal regulators and traders. Kalshi stated that there is no fake trading on the platform, and that the recurring quotes are fixed quotes posted by market makers, which faster traders seize upon. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara said that attracting large traders to new markets to promote broader adoption is not uncommon.
Token issuance platform Flap has added support for Anthropic and Kalshi pre-market token pools. The Anthropic pre-market token is powered by OpenStocks, while the Kalshi pre-market token is powered by Paimon Finance.
According to Morningstar, the federally recognized sovereign Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana has announced the formal launch of its first tribal nation prediction market application via its newly created subsidiary, SaltTrade Derivatives. Powered by Kalshi, the United States' first regulated prediction market platform, the app allows users to trade event contracts tied to real-world outcomes on the Kalshi marketplace. Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a conditional no-action letter to the tribe, providing a compliance framework for its participation in a regulated derivatives market. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that regulated national infrastructure and tribal entrepreneurship can develop alongside each other, rather than being a zero-sum game. This project provides a replicable pathway model for other sovereign tribal nations entering the prediction market industry.
According to The Block, World, an identity verification cryptocurrency project formerly known as Worldcoin, has officially launched its self-custody financial super app, World Money, available in more than 150 countries worldwide. The app supports stablecoin payments, trading, yield generation, virtual accounts, and other features. It manages balances in eight currencies and integrates with Stripe, Kalshi, and Morpho, allowing users to quickly convert fiat currency into stablecoins via Apple Pay through the Stripe partnership. Users who complete World ID verification are eligible for additional rewards in qualifying Earn programs. World is developed by Tools for Humanity, a company co-founded by Alex Blania and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
Odaily News: This self-custodial app will encompass stablecoins, investments, yield, and global payments, with integrations with Stripe, Kalshi, and Morpho. Through World ID verification, users can unlock higher rewards.
Odaily News: U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that she still hopes to push a crypto regulatory bill into law, but does not support the current version of the Clarity Act.Warren said the Clarity Act is Washington's first opportunity to achieve "meaningful crypto regulation," but any bill must include several core elements: regulating public officials' crypto investments, protecting national security and consumers, and strengthening the fight against illicit finance and terrorist financing.Her stance could become more critical next year. If Democrats regain control of the Senate after the November election, Warren could become chair of the Senate Banking Committee, one of the key bodies for digital asset regulatory legislation. The article notes that Kalshi prediction markets currently show a 52% probability of Democrats retaking the Senate.When asked whether she would lead crypto legislation if she headed the Banking Committee, Warren said she would be willing. She said she is willing to sit down with Democrats, Republicans, and the industry to craft a crypto bill that protects national security, protects the economy, and reduces corruption.
According to The Block, Bernstein analysts indicated that Senate Republicans' progress on the Clarity Act may surpass market consensus expectations. The Republican proposal has been finalized, incorporating 126 substantive amendments put forward by Democrats. President Trump has also endorsed most measures within the bipartisan ethics framework, including granting enforcement authority to state attorneys general. Bernstein pointed out that the crypto market currently holds a pessimistic view toward Tuesday’s procedural vote, with "any upside surprises not yet priced in." The probability of the bill's passage on prediction market platform Kalshi has climbed back above 30%. Analysts cautioned that a failure to pass the legislation, combined with hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve, could trigger a "significant pullback" in markets. However, even if the bill fails, it will accelerate SEC and CFTC crypto regulatory rulemaking rather than derail broader regulatory efforts.
Odaily News: Bitcoin News posted on X platform that after the CFTC approved Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contracts as futures products, uncertainty remains over how traders should report gains to the IRS. If the product is recognized as a regulated futures contract under Section 1256 of the U.S. tax code, the related gains are typically treated as 60% long-term capital gains and 40% short-term capital gains, regardless of the holding period. CME believes that Kalshi's perpetual contracts are actually swaps, and swaps are explicitly outside the scope of Section 1256. The CFTC's classification supports the view that they are futures products, but it is not binding on the IRS. Until the IRS, U.S. Congress, or courts directly address Bitcoin perpetual contracts, their tax treatment remains undetermined.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platform Kalshi plans to seek U.S. regulatory approval to launch perpetual contracts on approximately 60 stocks and ETFs, including Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia, with round-the-clock trading enabled. If approved, they would become the first regulated single-stock perpetual contracts in the U.S.
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) released a report stating that platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi lack the formal authorization required to sell contracts to users in the EU. Regulators have also questioned the effectiveness of these platforms in enforcing geo-restrictions and anti-VPN measures.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch gold and silver perpetual contracts on September 10. This marks the first non-crypto perpetual contract product approved by the CFTC. Kalshi was first approved to offer cryptocurrency perpetual contracts in late May of this year, and related products have since reached $44 billion in notional trading volume. Kalshi stated that gold and silver event contracts have exceeded $400 million in trading volume over the past 7 months, prompting the company to further expand its precious metals perpetual contract business. Additionally, Kalshi is also seeking to launch perpetual contracts related to US stocks, copper, and forex. (CNBC)