News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: Cantor Fitzgerald has announced that it will open access to the prediction market platform Kalshi for institutional investors, providing event contract trading services to its approximately 3,000 institutional clients, including family offices and hedge funds.According to The Wall Street Journal, Cantor Fitzgerald will act as a broker arranging block trades for institutional clients, enabling them to participate in "yes/no" contract trading based on real-world event outcomes offered by Kalshi. The trading instruments cover multiple areas, including weather forecasts, commodity price trends, and corporate performance.This partnership marks the further entry of traditional financial institutions into the prediction market space. Kalshi is an event trading platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users can bet via contracts on whether specific events will occur, such as economic data releases, policy changes, weather conditions, and business events.In recent years, prediction markets have drawn attention from investors, with proponents arguing that they can reflect collective expectations through market prices and provide risk hedging tools for businesses and investment institutions. However, regulators and some market participants have also continued to scrutinize the boundary between these markets and gambling. (WSJ)
Odaily News According to reports, multiple prediction markets are converging on pricing for the Fed's September meeting outcome: approximately 74% probability of holding rates steady, about 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and nearly 1% probability of a rate cut. Relevant Polymarket contracts have seen trading volume of $33.9 million; Kalshi, a prediction exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of holding rates steady, with related wagers nearing $10 million. Myriad, a prediction platform operated by Dastan, indicates approximately 71% probability for this option. The Fed's July meeting voted 9 to 3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with 3 committee members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC is scheduled to meet from September 15 to 16, with the statement planned for release on September 16; a survey shows nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: A final ruling by a Washington State court in the United States requires the prediction market platform Kalshi to stop offering event contracts related to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, science, and "named person mentions" in the state, and prohibits the promotion of related products to consumers in the state. Kalshi must implement geoblocking via IP addresses and user place of residence by August 19, and upgrade to a multi-source geofencing system by September 2. Contracts related to commodities, climate, economics, and finance are not subject to this ban. Kalshi previously applied for a stay of the ban, but the request was denied by the Washington State Court of Appeals.
DoubleZero on the Solana platform integrates prediction market Kalshi's order book into its low-latency data feed system to meet institutional demand for Wall Street-style high-speed trading data.
Odaily News: Flight data company FlightAware has withdrawn its lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi. The lawsuit was filed only one day prior, with FlightAware alleging that Kalshi used its flight data and trademarks without authorization to support bets related to flight cancellations. This withdrawal does not affect the possibility of FlightAware refiling the lawsuit. The case comes amid growing scrutiny on social media over Kalshi's aviation-related contracts, with questions raised about potential incentives for malicious interference with flights, alongside relatively low retail participation. Neither company has publicly commented on the case. The lawsuit had raised questions about whether prediction markets can use third-party data and trademarks without a commercial agreement, while Kalshi continues to face other regulatory and legal challenges in multiple states. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News – River Markets, a startup building trading infrastructure for prediction markets, has announced the completion of an $8.5 million seed funding round, led by Haun Ventures with participation from Y Combinator, Coinbase Ventures, and Qube Research Technologies, among others. The new capital will primarily be used to expand the engineering team, enhance trading system speed and security, and grow institutional clientele, while also developing new tools to support large-scale capital management and cross-platform trading.In recent years, prediction markets have drawn attention from institutional investors. Data from industry platforms shows that institutional trading demand is growing rapidly. For example, prediction market platform Kalshi previously stated that its institutional trading volume increased by approximately 800% within six months. Meanwhile, market participants have begun using prediction markets for risk hedging, including building trading positions around real-world economic variables such as carbon emission allowances and GPU rental prices. (Fortune)
According to Reuters, Kalshi will integrate the Nasdaq market surveillance platform in phases to strengthen real-time monitoring of trading on the platform. The integration aims to enhance the ability to identify market abuse, manipulation, and insider trading, and support submitting trading data in the format required by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Kalshi has announced the launch of an AI-powered tool called Blanket, designed to help small businesses hedge operational risks such as weather, energy prices, tariffs, and elections using event contracts.Blanket was developed by independent fintech entrepreneur Lauris Zminsky and operates on Kalshi's CFTC-regulated prediction market, though it is not an internal Kalshi product. The tool does not directly execute trades or handle funds; instead, it uses AI to analyze risks faced by businesses and recommends Kalshi event contracts that can be used for hedging.Kalshi stated that small businesses are becoming a key growth area, with an increasing number of companies using event contracts to manage uncertainty from abnormal weather, sports events, transportation costs, and tariff fluctuations. However, Blanket has also sparked debate over the positioning of prediction markets. Supporters argue that prediction markets are democratizing risk management tools previously available only to large financial institutions, while critics worry that they may further promote the "gamification" and speculative nature of financial products.Kalshi has already obtained regulatory approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and emphasized that its platform differs from casinos, offering stronger user protection mechanisms and greater transparency. (Fortune)
: U.S. Federal District Judge Robert J. Shelby ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not prevent Utah from applying its anti-gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts, granting Utah's motion for summary judgment and denying Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction. Shelby stated that the jurisdictional provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act are subject to multiple reasonable interpretations, and in such cases, courts generally do not support federal law preemption. He also rejected Kalshi's argument that amendments under the Dodd-Frank Act established federal preemption for derivatives trading. Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick said the company disagrees with the ruling and will appeal to the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals. Currently, Utah users can still use sports event contracts, and the state has not yet initiated enforcement action. The New York Attorney General has already cited the ruling as supplementary grounds in opposing the CFTC's motion for a preliminary injunction against New York state. Earlier, New York sued Kalshi last week, alleging that it operates as an unlicensed gambling operator.
1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino posted data revealing that over the past month, Polymarket's website traffic reached 43.1 million visits (according to Similarweb data), surpassing the combined total of FanDuel, DraftKings, and Kalshi, and has become one of the most visited fintech applications globally. Nick Tomaino believes that the core reason for Polymarket's growth is not marketing investment, but rather its value primarily as a "source of information," where users hope to better understand the real world through prediction markets. Polymarket currently dominates the on-chain prediction market sector; the transparency and global accessibility brought by the on-chain architecture are key to achieving the long-term goal of "better information and more truth." However, Polymarket's U.S. application is still in the early stages, but the product and business model are gradually maturing and beginning to enter an accelerated execution phase.
Odaily News: Former U.S. Representative George Santos has reached a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the July 31 order, Santos must disgorge $17,569.98, pay a $17,500 civil monetary penalty, and is prohibited from trading on any CFTC-regulated entity for three years. The CFTC found that Santos made misleading public statements and material omissions while trading event contracts on the prediction market platform Kalshi related to whether he would attend President Donald Trump's State of the Union address. Santos neither admitted nor denied the findings or conclusions in the order. Trading records show that Santos opened an account on February 11 and traded only that contract, first purchasing Yes contracts and profiting $3,448.43, then continuing to publicly state he would attend after flights and trains were canceled, while purchasing No contracts. That position ultimately earned $14,390.57. Kalshi stated that it had detected the related activity, frozen the account, and provided evidence to the CFTC.
Odaily News: Former US Congressman George Santos has reached a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC stated that Santos engaged in manipulative trading behavior while trading a prediction contract on Kalshi regarding whether he would attend the State of the Union address in February 2026, profiting over $17,500 from the trades.According to the CFTC's Friday announcement, Santos is required to pay $35,000 as part of the settlement, but neither admitted nor denied the regulator's findings.The CFTC stated that in the two weeks leading up to the State of the Union address, Santos repeatedly made public comments about whether he would attend the event, causing significant fluctuations in the price of the event contract. For example, while holding a "Yes" position indicating he would attend, he posted on X asking what he should wear to the State of the Union. Within hours, the price of the Yes position rose, after which Santos closed his position for a profit.The CFTC also alleged that Santos subsequently continued to post updates about his travel to Washington, D.C., including flights and train rides, and profited by trading back and forth based on market reactions to his public statements. The CFTC stated that Santos's conduct was intentional, or at least reckless. He traded in an event contract whose underlying outcome he could influence, and affected the contract price through misleading public statements or omissions of information, thereby profiting from his trading positions.Santos's attorney, Joseph W. Murray, stated in Friday's announcement that the State of the Union contract was Santos's first foray into prediction market betting.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
CME Group, the operator of the largest U.S. derivatives exchange, sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its Chairman Mike Selig last month, opposing the regulator's approval for prediction market platform Kalshi and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase to launch crypto perpetual contracts. Non-US perpetual contracts achieved a trading volume of $60 trillion last year. CME argues that the CFTC misclassified the relevant products and improperly applied the law, claiming that futures should have an expiration date, whereas perpetual contracts allow traders to establish leveraged positions on the future price of an asset without an expiration limit. CME also contends that the products harm its longer-dated futures business and that the CFTC failed to adequately consider the impact. The dispute between the parties intensified during the early stages of the Iran conflict, when demand rose for 24-hour crude oil perpetual contracts on offshore DeFi exchanges like Hyperliquid, as well as for on-chain prediction market trading related to the crude oil market. CME subsequently applied to accelerate the launch of 24-hour West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures trading but was blocked by the CFTC. Kalshi, after launching its first related product last month, stated that its trading volume exceeded $1 billion in less than a week. The CFTC is currently advancing the U.S. perpetual contracts market through policy statements and case-by-case reviews, rather than through new rulemaking procedures.
Odaily reports: After perpetual futures entered the regulated US market, Wall Street institutions are still taking a wait-and-see approach. Bank of America estimates that the global annual trading volume of perpetual futures is approximately 90 trillion USD; within a week of Kalshi launching perpetual futures in June, trading volume exceeded 1 billion USD. Perpetual futures are similar to standard futures but have no expiration date, meaning traders do not need to close or roll over positions monthly or quarterly. Instead, periodic funding rates keep the contract price close to the underlying asset. On May 29, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved Kalshi to offer such contracts, and Coinbase also received approval to list regulated perpetual futures in the US. Insiders say that large financial institutions are still studying these products, with proprietary trading firms, market makers, and emerging clearing firms likely to be the first to participate. Large banks face stricter capital rules, client obligations, and reputational risks, and typically wait for years of data, clear regulatory treatment, and stable infrastructure. Perpetual futures may also be used to manage weekend risk, but market depth remains a concern. Industry insiders note that regulatory disagreements are emerging over whether certain contracts should be classified as futures or swaps, and CME has already challenged the CFTC's handling of Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contract.
预测市场运营商 Kalshi 于 7 月 24 日向 Netflix 发出停止侵权函，指控其新纪录片《Instadocs: The Prediction Games》预告片构成诽谤，并要求在 7 月 26 日影片首映前撤下预告片并公开更正。 Kalshi 称，预告片使用了一张伪造的交易单，暗示其允许内华达州体育博彩，且违反州法院命令。该公司表示，画面中的收据日期为 2025 年 5 月 16 日，电话界面显示“crop”，并不符合其平台样式。 Netflix 否认伪造画面，表示相关交易发生在 2025 年 5 月、内华达限制生效前，场景拍摄于拉斯维加斯一场私人活动。内华达监管机构要求 Kalshi 在 8 月 12 日前完成地理围栏部署，否则需按每天 12 万美元支付罚款。
OdailyOdailyOdaily News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same election. The Commission also noted that knowingly voting without being eligible could constitute a Class I felony. The Commission unanimously approved a legal memorandum regarding prediction markets during a meeting on July 9, and issued a statewide notice on Tuesday. The restrictions apply only to the corresponding election and do not automatically affect a trader's voting eligibility in other unrelated elections. Benjamin Freeman, Head of Election Business at Kalshi, stated that the guidance is "clearly unconstitutional and unlawful," adding that the company has hundreds of thousands of users in Wisconsin alone. Robert DeNault, Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel at Kalshi, said that election markets certified by the CFTC and offered on federally regulated exchanges are legal. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated that the company would respond to the Commission's claims through appropriate legal proceedings. Both companies argue that their products are tradable financial contracts, not gambling.
According to Reuters, prediction market platform Polymarket announced it will launch a legal challenge against the decision by the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) to block its website. ANJ unilaterally blocked access to Polymarket in France last week, citing "potential for significant gambling losses for users" and "risk of manipulation of platform bets." Polymarket expressed disappointment over this and stated it would seek relief through French legal procedures. Previously, the Spanish government temporarily banned Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi in May this year, and US derivatives regulators also released a new regulatory draft targeting the prediction market industry in June, indicating a clear trend of tightening global regulation.
According to PR Newswire, institutional digital asset infrastructure provider Talos announced the completion of its integration with CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, enabling institutional clients to directly trade Kalshi event contracts and crypto perpetual contracts via the existing Talos interface without requiring additional access. Talos has launched two core features for this: first, an algorithmic trading suite for market makers and hedge funds (including strategies such as TWAP and POV), supporting spread trading between perpetual contracts and between perpetual contracts and spot; second, a block OTC trading interface based on the RFQ platform, connecting the OTC liquidity provider network.