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Polymarket probability drops to 41% that "Claude Fable 5 will be restored for US customers by June 26," down 16% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Claude Fable 5 will be restored for US customers by June 26" has dropped to 41%, down 16% in 24 hours.Due to US government export controls imposed on national security grounds, Anthropic suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9.Latest reports indicate that Anthropic executives have submitted a proposal to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, pledging closer collaboration with the White House and working to address the security concerns that led to restrictions on its powerful "Mythos" and "Fable" models.Sources familiar with the matter say that during ongoing remediation negotiations, Anthropic has committed to resolving any security issues more quickly in the future, though there is currently no exact timeline for a complete resolution. Another insider stated that Anthropic co-founder and Chief Computing Officer Tom Brown, along with Head of Public Policy Sarah Heck, are leading negotiations with Trump administration officials. Representatives from both Anthropic and the Department of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Namada suffered an attack, with over 220,000 ATOM flowing into a Cosmos Hub address before being transferred out

According to Odaily, the privacy-focused public chain project Namada officially stated that the protocol encountered a vulnerability attack incident. The team is currently investigating and has contacted relevant parties to assist in handling the matter.Officials stated that if the operator behind this attack is a white hat hacker, they hope the individual will proactively contact the team to further understand the vulnerability and facilitate a resolution.On-chain data shows that some ATOM assets related to the incident were allegedly transferred to a Cosmos Hub network address via IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication protocol). According to on-chain tracking information, this address received approximately 228,517 ATOM on June 18. The funds were subsequently drained within hours through IBC transfers and multiple outgoing transactions. Currently, only a small balance remains in this address.As of now, Namada has not disclosed the type of vulnerability, the attack method, or the specific scale of losses. The relevant investigation is still ongoing.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency orders Moomoo Securities to partially suspend operations, halting new account openings for three months

According to Nikkei, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) announced on June 19 that it has ordered Moomoo Securities to suspend certain business operations, specifically prohibiting the solicitation and acceptance of new account openings from June 19 to September 18—a period of three months. At the same time, regulators also issued a business improvement order, requiring the company to clarify accountability—including at the management level—and formulate a corrective action plan to prevent recurrence.

Polymarket probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" rises to 73%, up 33% in 24H

Monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 73%, up 33% in 24H.If Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos, or a version confirmed to be the same model) to the US public before the specified date, this event will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". Qualifying methods of restoration include public beta or public waitlist; closed testing and private access do not count. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are not included by default unless they are confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. Settlement will primarily be based on official announcements from Anthropic, supplemented by consensus reports from mainstream media.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. Although the restrictions were primarily aimed at foreign users, due to the difficulty of real-time user identity screening, Anthropic ultimately closed access for all users, including those in the US, and switched requests to less capable models such as Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently engaged in high-level discussions with the White House on issues including model capabilities and potential jailbreak risks. The company has publicly stated that the ban may have stemmed from a misunderstanding and is actively pushing to restore access.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.

Polymarket launches new "SpaceX Starship First Launch Date from Florida" event

Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event for "SpaceX Starship First Launch Date from Florida."To date, all integrated test flights of Starship have been conducted at Starbase in Texas. SpaceX is currently building Starship launch and manufacturing facilities in Florida, including a Starship launch tower at Kennedy Space Center's LC-39A, and renovation work at Cape Canaveral's SLC-37. Relevant projects still require regulatory approval, environmental assessments, and infrastructure construction.SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell stated in a CNBC interview in June 2026 that the company expects Starship Flight 13 to launch in about a month and plans to gradually achieve a monthly Starship launch cadence. She also mentioned that future missions could include Starship's first-ever launch from Florida.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to follow the prediction market—seeing changes before pricing.

Crypto-related kidnapping and robbery near Marseille, France; four individuals arrested

According to La Provence, French police arrested four suspects in Marseille and its surrounding areas in connection with an attempted kidnapping-style robbery targeting cryptocurrency assets. The incident occurred at around 3 a.m. on June 13, 2026, when the suspects broke into a residential unit in Marseille’s 13th arrondissement, attempting to seize cryptocurrency-related assets by taking two women hostage. A family in the building was awakened by the noise and immediately called the police; the suspects fled the scene, leaving behind only their vehicle license plate as a clue. Such “crypto-kidnapping” crimes are reportedly on the rise in France, with approximately 70 cases involving kidnapping or ransom demands targeting cryptocurrency assets recorded since the start of 2026. Authorities note that these incidents typically target cryptocurrency holders and their family members, exhibiting highly targeted and violent characteristics.

Aztec Labs: Attacked Product Discontinued Four Years Ago, No Control Over It

according to Aztec Labs monitoring, the team is investigating a potential vulnerability affecting an Aztec payments product that was discontinued in 2021. Approximately $2 million was transferred from an immutable smart contract. This discontinued product is an immutable Stage 2 Rollup version that was deactivated in 2022. Aztec Labs does not hold the admin keys or any control over the system, and thus cannot pause or upgrade it. This incident is separate from the attack on the Aztec Connect product on June 14. The Aztec Foundation stated that the product affected by this attack is not associated with any smart contracts of the current network or the AZTEC ERC20 token.

Miami Man Pleads Guilty to Promoting HyperFund Scam, Involving $1.8 Billion in Investor Funds

Odaily Odaily News Rodney "Bitcoin Rodney" Burton, a resident of Miami, Florida, has pleaded guilty in federal court to participating in a cryptocurrency fraud scheme related to HyperFund, which involved approximately $1.8 billion.According to federal prosecutors in Maryland, Burton admitted to "conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business." He participated in promoting this Ponzi-structured project between June 2020 and January 2022, profiting approximately $7.85 million.Law enforcement authorities indicated that HyperFund attracted investors with promises of high returns of "0.5% to 1% daily," but there was no actual cryptocurrency mining or sustainable source of revenue. The funds essentially came from new investors, representing a typical Ponzi scheme structure. The platform began restricting withdrawals in 2021.The U.S. Department of Justice stated that the project raised funds from investors worldwide and was used for promotion and fund transfers during its operation, constituting a large-scale跨境 wire fraud network.Burton faces a maximum of 5 years in federal prison, with sentencing scheduled for July 23. Law enforcement agencies stated that the case was jointly investigated by the IRS Criminal Investigation Division and Homeland Security Investigations. (U.S. Department of Justice)

Bitcoin Falls Below $65,000: Fed Meeting Looms, Structural Concerns Over Strategy and Leverage Risks Converge

Bitcoin continues to face pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional wait-and-see sentiment, hovering around $64,500, down approximately 2% on the day. The market is awaiting the outcome of the Fed FOMC meeting, which will be chaired by Kevin Warsh for the first time, with widespread expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range.Analysts point out that the focus of this meeting has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "policy path and inflation signals." Current US inflation is believed to remain near three-year highs, with energy prices and geopolitical developments keeping the market cautious about the future policy direction.Pressure is also emerging simultaneously on the chain and institutional levels. Structural concerns surrounding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to escalate, with its preferred stock STRC falling to $91.79 on June 16, over 8% below its $100 par value, seen as a sign of weakening corporate Bitcoin buying power.Although spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $10.1 million on June 16, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the majority, the capital scale remains significantly lower than in previous periods, indicating limited buying momentum.Market research firms Bitfinex and QCP note that the recent Bitcoin rebound appears more like a "technical recovery driven by exhausted selling pressure" rather than being fueled by new demand. In the derivatives market, rising implied volatility in options and a skew towards put protection suggest traders are pricing in tail risks.In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is considered to be oscillating in the short term within the $60,000 to $68,000 range. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance or institutional buying weakens further, a pullback to the $62,000–$63,000 range is possible.Overall, the current market presents a combination of "macro wait-and-see, marginal institutional weakening, and heightened derivatives defense." The short-term direction still depends on FOMC policy signals and the potential return of ETF and corporate capital flows. (The Block)

U.S. House and Senate Reach Agreement: Housing Bill Includes Provision Banning CBDCs Through 2030

According to The Block, U.S. Senate and House leaders jointly released an updated version of the “Pathway to 21st Century Housing Act,” confirming a bipartisan agreement between both chambers. The bill’s core focus is housing affordability reform, including expanding housing supply and curbing market monopolization by corporate landlords. Notably, an attached provision explicitly prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing or creating a central bank digital currency (CBDC) or any “substantially similar” digital asset before December 31, 2030—a clause spearheaded by Republican members of the House. The Trump administration maintains a consistent stance: Treasury Secretary Bessent has previously stated unequivocally that a CBDC is “not under consideration.” The bill will first undergo a procedural vote in the Senate and is expected to be submitted to the House for consideration after Congress resumes on June 23, following its recess; it will then proceed to the President for signature.

Base will activate the Beryl hard fork upgrade on the mainnet on June 26, introducing the B20 native token standard

: According to official sources, Base is about to launch the Beryl hard fork upgrade, introducing the B20 native token standard, which shortens the final confirmation period for single-proof withdrawals from 7 days to 5 days, and upgrades Reth V2, reducing disk usage by 50% and increasing throughput by 33%.Beryl will be activated on the Sepolia testnet at 2:00 AM UTC+8 on June 19, and on the mainnet at 2:00 AM UTC+8 on June 26.B20 is Base’s native token standard, an ERC-20 compatible token implemented via Rust precompile, designed specifically for stablecoins, RWAs, and long-tail token issuers. It includes a built-in compliance toolkit, featuring transfer strategies, freezing and seizing, role-based access control, memos, and supply caps.

Binance Responds to EU License Controversy: Still Committed to Obtaining Operational Qualification Under the MiCA Framework

Binance has responded to news regarding its EU license on the X platform, stating that the company remains committed to serving European users and will continue to conduct business in accordance with applicable laws.Binance stated that as the MiCA transition period draws to a close, the company is adopting a prudent, user-first strategy to minimize the impact of business adjustments. It will disclose further arrangements and available options to users once more information is obtained, with plans to release an update before June 30, 2026.Additionally, Binance noted that over the past 18 months, it has maintained constructive communication with regulators and actively participated in the MiCA approval process. According to its understanding, the Greek regulatory authority has completed its review of the relevant application and deems it compliant with MiCA requirements. The application has also been reviewed at the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) level.Binance also indicated that any delays or deviations in the MiCA authorization process could weaken market liquidity, competition, and user choice, potentially pushing some activities outside the EU. The company will continue to seek compliant operational paths under the MiCA framework and keep users informed of progress.

FBI Announcement: Digital Assets Seized in Multiple Jurisdictions, Including BTC, ETH, USDT, and Other Cryptocurrencies

According to an official FBI notice, the Federal Bureau of Investigation issued a public announcement on June 16, 2026, stating that it had seized substantial assets across multiple U.S. judicial districts for violations of federal law. Seized assets include cash, vehicles, cryptocurrencies, jewelry, firearms, and electronic devices. The seized assets span a broad range, including: multiple large cash deposits and luxury goods—including Hermès and Chanel handbags and jewelry—in California; various cryptocurrencies—including Bitcoin and Ethereum—in Connecticut; over $460,000 in USDT stablecoins in Texas; nearly $500,000 in USDT in Indiana; and more than $1.1 million across multiple bank accounts held by CO EBikes LLC in Colorado.

U.S. government oversight agency urges FDIC to coordinate cryptocurrency regulation

the U.S. Government Accountability Office (U.S. GAO) sent a letter to FDIC Chairman Travis Hill on June 8. The letter noted a significant increase in blockchain-related financial products and services, and that blockchain technology has been placed on a high-risk list. The U.S. GAO recommended establishing relevant coordination mechanisms to help regulatory agencies such as the FDIC jointly identify risks and implement timely regulatory responses.Additionally, under the GENIUS Act passed last year, the FDIC is the primary regulator overseeing bank-affiliated stablecoin issuer subsidiaries. The U.S. GAO also recommended that the FDIC rotate case managers assigned to banks to reduce threats to independence. The failure of three crypto-related banks in 2023 has raised questions about whether regulators took sufficient action. (cointelegraph)

Brazil Proposes Permanent Regulatory Framework Bill for Blockchain and Tokenization

According to Livecoins, on June 8, Brazilian Federal Deputy Lincoln Portela (PL-MG) submitted Bill No. 2901/2026, proposing the establishment of a “National Framework for Fintech and Digital Financial Platforms.” Key provisions of the bill include: establishing a “National Permanent Financial Sandbox” to provide a continuous testing environment for blockchain technologies and tokenized crypto assets; placing regulatory oversight under the Central Bank of Brazil, with differentiated, low-barrier compliance standards for small- and medium-sized fintech startups; permitting companies to share network infrastructure and data to combat money laundering involving crypto assets; and introducing decentralized digital identity and biometric technologies to secure high-value transactions. Non-compliant entities may face fines of up to 20% of their annual profits and revenue. The bill is scheduled for review by the Chamber of Deputies’ specialized committee in the coming weeks.

Benchmark: SEC NMS Reform May Be the Most Critical Crypto Regulatory Variable This Year

research firm Benchmark Equity Research has highlighted that the market structure reform proposal put forward by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 11 could be one of the most far-reaching regulatory actions for the U.S. crypto industry this year. The proposal aims to abolish Rule 611 and Rule 610(e) of Regulation NMS, two core rules that have governed the routing and execution of U.S. stock trades since 2005, which are seen as having long constrained the development of tokenized stocks and on-chain trading.Rule 611 (Order Protection Rule) requires trading venues to avoid executing trades at prices inferior to "protected quotations" on other markets, thereby enforcing the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO) system. Rule 610(e) prohibits locked and crossed markets, restricting quotation overlaps and price mismatches.Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer stated that if the rules are repealed, it would remove key legal barriers hindering DeFi trading models, such as automated market makers (AMMs), allowing them to operate without relying on traditional order routing systems. The regulatory changes would directly benefit infrastructure for tokenized stocks and crypto securities trading, with Securitize identified as the most immediate beneficiary. Additionally, Coinbase and Galaxy Digital could also benefit from the expansion of trading, custody, and market-making businesses.However, Benchmark also noted that even with looser rules, critical issues such as exchange registration, clearing and settlement, and custody frameworks remain unresolved. The market is still anticipating the SEC's potential introduction of an "innovation exemption" mechanism. The SEC has opened a 60-day public comment period, and Benchmark expects a final vote could take place in early 2027. (The Block)

Pakistan Launches Public Consultation on Draft “2026 Virtual Asset Services Regulations”

The Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA) has launched a public consultation on the draft “Pakistan Virtual Asset Services Regulations 2026” and its accompanying Activity-Specific Handbook, open for comments from June 11 to July 2, 2026, at 4:00 PM Pakistan Standard Time (PST).

World Cup Drives Prediction Market Trading Volume to New Highs, Bernstein Says Robinhood May Benefit

Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)

Gate launches RLUSD, opening four major trading pairs with multiple incentive measures

crypto asset trading platform Gate has announced the listing of RLUSD, a U.S. dollar stablecoin launched by Ripple, at 17:00 (UTC+8) on June 15. Simultaneously, it will open the BTC/RLUSD, ETH/RLUSD, XRP/RLUSD, and RLUSD/USDT trading pairs. RLUSD is fully backed 1:1 by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and other cash equivalents, with monthly reserve audit reports enhancing transparency and compliance. This stablecoin is specifically designed for payment use cases, aiming to meet the growing demand from users, developers, and institutions for transparent, interoperable stablecoins with real-world application capabilities.To support the listing, Gate has simultaneously launched a market incentive program totaling 750,000 RLUSD. This program includes measures such as CandyDrop trading incentives, VIP-exclusive airdrops, withdrawal fee reductions, and KOL promotions, all designed to drive genuine trading demand, improve market depth, and attract new user participation and market vitality. The listing of RLUSD combined with the concentrated release of incentive resources demonstrates Gate's strategic direction of continuously improving its stablecoin trading ecosystem and enhancing multi-asset liquidity and trading efficiency. Moving forward, Gate will expand its offerings with more high-quality assets and ecosystem partnerships, driving the continued evolution of digital asset market infrastructure.

T. Rowe Price Multi-Asset Crypto ETF Approved by SEC, Can Include Up to 15 Crypto Assets

the actively managed crypto ETF launched by T. Rowe Price was approved by the U.S. SEC on June 12, 2026, marking a key step toward its listing on NYSE Arca. Although the product has not yet begun trading, it is close to being officially opened to investors.The ETF plans to allocate between 5 and 15 crypto assets. The current draft shows it will cover major assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana, and XRP, along with highly volatile tokens like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), reflecting a strategy to expand into a broader digital asset portfolio. The approval process accelerated since April 2026, during which T. Rowe Price submitted multiple revised proposals. The SEC formally approved the second amended filing on June 12, indicating growing regulatory acceptance of multi-asset crypto ETF structures.Market analysts believe that if the product successfully launches, it will further expand institutional investors' compliant exposure to diversified crypto assets and could set a regulatory precedent for more actively managed multi-currency crypto ETFs in the future. (intellectia)