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June is a powerful AI assistant built by the team at Blockchain.com to guide users through their crypto journey, learn and level up with them, and give them access to multiple Large Language Models (LLMs) in one seamless platform. From real-time insights to tactical product knowledge to versatile support, June gives users the tools to move faster, act smarter, and stay ahead.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic to Go Public or Raise Over $240 Billion, Potentially Impacting Crypto Market Liquidity
According to CoinDesk, SpaceX is expected to go public in June and could surpass Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion IPO in 2019 to become the largest IPO in history. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public in the second half of this year. Collectively, these three companies are projected to raise over $240 billion—potentially marking a pivotal turning point for liquidity in the crypto market. Market analysts believe these mega-IPOs could significantly drain liquidity from risk assets, with the crypto market sitting in the same funding pool. As mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have closely tracked the Nasdaq and U.S. equity risk sentiment in recent years, a large-scale shift of capital toward subscribing to tech giants’ IPOs may weaken buying support for BTC, ETH, and altcoins.
SpaceX Initiates Pre-IPO Wall Street Closed-Door Meetings, Plans to Reserve Approximately 30% of Shares for Retail Investors
Odaily News SpaceX will hold a three-day closed-door analyst meeting in the United States this week to present its business and strategy to Wall Street institutions in preparation for a potential IPO. Informed sources stated that the company aims to raise approximately $75 billion, with a valuation potentially reaching $1.75 trillion, and plans to go public as early as June.The meeting will cover SpaceX's Starbase launch site in Texas and its data center project in Tennessee. Participating analysts are required to surrender electronic devices to ensure information confidentiality. This roadshow is a key part of the IPO process, and subsequent model explanation meetings will be held to further disclose financial and growth expectations.Furthermore, the company plans to reserve approximately 30% of its shares for retail investors and expand into global markets. Several Wall Street investment banks have already participated in underwriting arrangements. (Reuters)
Polymarket Launches "Anthropic, Developer of Claude, Next Funding Round Deadline"
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Anthropic, developer of Claude, next funding round deadline." The current probability of completion before the end of June is temporarily quoted at 22%; the probability before the end of December is temporarily quoted at 81%.The contract rules for this event are: If the specified company publicly and formally announces the completion of its next funding round before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." Eligible announcements must clearly confirm the completion of the new funding round, which can be through official announcements from the specified company (e.g., press release) or its investors, regulatory filings, or consensus from credible media reports. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks are not eligible. If the specified company is unable to complete a new funding round due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by another entity, the market will be settled as "No." The primary settlement sources for this market will be official announcements from the specified company and official company documents, such as SEC filings; however, credible consensus reporting may also be used.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
SpaceX Advances Employee Stock Option Vesting to April, Accelerating IPO Timeline
According to Bloomberg, SpaceX has accelerated its employee stock option vesting schedule to April (originally scheduled for May) to alleviate employees’ liquidity expectations ahead of its IPO. The company expects to file its public IPO application as early as May and aims to price the offering in mid-June, targeting a valuation exceeding $2 trillion—potentially making it one of the largest IPOs in history.
Ethereum Protocol Fellowship Cohort 7 Applications Now Open, Deadline May 13
the Ethereum Protocol Support Team has announced the launch of Ethereum Protocol Fellowship Cohort 7 (EPF7). The application channel is now open, with a deadline of May 13th.This program is designed to cultivate engineers capable of participating in Ethereum core protocol development, focusing on the network's core attributes including censorship resistance, open-source nature, privacy, and security. Key areas of focus include client implementations, protocol specifications, testing, and cutting-edge research.EPF7 will adopt a "small-scale, high-density" model, reducing participant numbers to enhance the depth of mentorship and the quality of project contributions, while strengthening collaboration opportunities with the core development team. The project runs from June to November. Selected participants will receive mentorship support from the Ethereum core developer community. Some participants will also receive monthly grants to focus on protocol development work. The program goals include nurturing long-term contributors for the Ethereum core research and development team, and driving participants towards producing substantive results in client development and protocol research.It is reported that the EPF team will host an online information session on May 6th at 15:00 UTC to further introduce project details and answer application-related questions.
Upbit and Bithumb to Delist DRIFT
According to an official announcement, Upbit and Bithumb have stated that member companies of the Korea Digital Asset Exchange Association (DAXA) plan to terminate trading support for DRIFT. The reason for terminating DRIFT trading is that the foundation’s explanatory materials alone are insufficient to alleviate concerns that led to the project’s inclusion on the “Trading Caution List.” Furthermore, after a comprehensive review of all aspects related to the project’s progress, it was determined that the project fails to meet the criteria required to maintain trading support. DRIFT trading (buy/sell) will end on June 1, 2026, at 16:00 KST. Support for DRIFT withdrawals will be terminated on July 1, 2026, at 16:00 KST.
MegaETH Announces Eight-Week Odyssey Ahead of TGE, Tomorrow's TGE Probability Reaches 97%
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Channel shows that the probability of "MegaETH TGE Tomorrow" on Polymarket is currently at 97%, up 6% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of nearly $2.5 million.Additionally, last night MegaETH announced the launch of its Odyssey event, running from April 28 to June 23. After the event concludes, eligible participants will receive rewards based on their activity level, subject to meeting qualification requirements, sanctions screening, and successful completion of KYC verification.This market will settle as "Yes" if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date indicated in the title; otherwise, it will settle as "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable; a mere announcement does not constitute fulfilling the condition.This market primarily relies on official information from MegaETH as the basis for settlement, while also referencing consensus formed by credible media reports.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
South Korea’s Democratic Party is expected to advance stablecoin-related legislation following the June election.
According to Edaily, Kim Hyun-jung, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea’s Digital Asset Task Force, stated that the “Digital Asset Basic Act”—which covers stablecoin regulation—is expected to be submitted after the June local elections, and related committee deliberations may also commence around the same time. The bill aims to regulate the entire digital asset ecosystem, including issuance, circulation, information disclosure, and listing of virtual assets. Kim Hyun-jung added that the party and government have yet to fully reach consensus on issues such as bank-led consortiums and equity oversight of digital asset exchanges; however, with Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song sending positive signals regarding stablecoins, related legislation is still expected to move forward.
Polymarket Launches "Anthropic, Developer of Claude, Next Funding Round Deadline"
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Anthropic, developer of Claude, next funding round deadline." The current probability of completion before the end of June is temporarily quoted at 22%; the probability before the end of December is temporarily quoted at 81%.The contract rules for this event are: If the specified company publicly and formally announces the completion of its next funding round before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." Eligible announcements must clearly confirm the completion of the new funding round, which can be through official announcements from the specified company (e.g., press release) or its investors, regulatory filings, or consensus from credible media reports. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks are not eligible. If the specified company is unable to complete a new funding round due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by another entity, the market will be settled as "No." The primary settlement sources for this market will be official announcements from the specified company and official company documents, such as SEC filings; however, credible consensus reporting may also be used.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Polish Prime Minister Claims Crypto Company Involved with Russian Mafia and Intelligence Networks, Funding Political Opponents, Sparking Regulatory Controversy
Odaily News: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that a cryptocurrency company linked to "Russian mafia and intelligence agencies" is funding political opponents and influencing domestic crypto regulatory legislation. During a parliamentary vote on Friday, Tusk pointed out that some Polish politicians are obstructing crypto regulatory legislation to serve a company named Zondacrypto, which is alleged to provide "financial support" to political figures and has ties to Russia.Tusk further claimed that the company sponsored the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) event held in Poland last year, during which former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem publicly supported President Karol Nawrocki's campaign.Tusk bluntly stated that the company's funding sources not only involve "funds related to the Russian mafia (Bratva)" but may also be connected to Russian intelligence agencies.Meanwhile, President Nawrocki won the election last June, with his camp receiving support from former U.S. President Donald Trump. The President's Office responded that it is not opposed to crypto regulation itself but opposes the "flawed regulatory model" proposed by the government.This controversy arises amidst the political tug-of-war in Poland over the crypto regulatory bill. The bill aims to align with the EU's MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) framework. However, the President previously vetoed the relevant bill and blocked parliament from overriding the veto in December, stalling the regulatory process. (The Block)
Tapp Exchange will gradually cease operations, and users must withdraw their assets before May 31.
According to an official announcement, Tapp Exchange will gradually cease operations. The protocol will remain fully operational until May 31, 2026, during which users’ assets will remain secure and withdrawable. After May 31, its frontend will be taken offline, and users will only be able to withdraw funds by interacting directly with the smart contracts on-chain. Tapp Exchange stated that since its launch on Aptos in June 2025, it has built a V4-style decentralized exchange, introduced ve(3,3) voting, emission distribution, bribe infrastructure, and governance tools, achieving a cumulative trading volume of $1.95 billion.
Bitcoin and Ethereum options with a notional value of $9.87 billion are set to expire on April 24th.
Odaily Odaily News: Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on X platform, disclosing the options delivery data for April 24th:1. 109,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.93, a max pain point of $72,000, and a notional value of $8.55 billion.2. 563,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.72, a max pain point of $2,200, and a notional value of $1.32 billion.The market continued to rebound this week, with Bitcoin breaking above $78,000. The Hong Kong Web3 conference was also filled with an upbeat atmosphere, and the altcoin market is recovering as well. This is a monthly expiry, with 25% of options set to expire. In terms of holding periods, the distribution of open interest in the options market shows 12% for the end of May and 24% for the end of June.Looking at the main options data, Bitcoin's key tenor IV continued to decline this month, with most tenor IVs falling by 1% to 2% to below 40%. ETH's main tenor IV dropped even more, currently around 60%. Despite the price increase, Skew has declined, and there is no FOMO sentiment in the market.In the second quarter of this year, Bitcoin's performance in both price and market sentiment was significantly better than in the first quarter. This month's sustained rebound is a sign of capital inflow. If macro pressure bottoms out by mid-year, Bitcoin's bottom will also be confirmed.
SpaceX Initiates Pre-IPO Wall Street Closed-Door Meetings, Plans to Reserve Approximately 30% of Shares for Retail Investors
Odaily News SpaceX will hold a three-day closed-door analyst meeting in the United States this week to present its business and strategy to Wall Street institutions in preparation for a potential IPO. Informed sources stated that the company aims to raise approximately $75 billion, with a valuation potentially reaching $1.75 trillion, and plans to go public as early as June.The meeting will cover SpaceX's Starbase launch site in Texas and its data center project in Tennessee. Participating analysts are required to surrender electronic devices to ensure information confidentiality. This roadshow is a key part of the IPO process, and subsequent model explanation meetings will be held to further disclose financial and growth expectations.Furthermore, the company plans to reserve approximately 30% of its shares for retail investors and expand into global markets. Several Wall Street investment banks have already participated in underwriting arrangements. (Reuters)
Analysis: This BTC rebound is driven by “liquidity” rather than a fundamental strengthening of the trend.
According to The Block, Bitcoin rose approximately 6% this week, briefly reaching $76,300—the highest level in nearly two months—yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 21 (“Extreme Fear”). Multiple institutional analysts characterize this rally as “liquidity-driven” rather than a structural strengthening. Glassnode notes that while spot demand and ETF inflows have improved, the recovery lacks depth, institutional participation remains cautious, and options market positioning continues to favor downside protection. Bitfinex attributes this price increase primarily to concentrated buying by “Strategists” (who purchased 13,927 BTC last week), rather than an organic rebound in demand. Analysts broadly view $75,000 as a critical support level; if structural buying wanes and this level fails to hold, prices could retreat to the $70,000–$71,000 range. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and the June FOMC meeting are seen as the next key risk catalysts.
Figure Technologies and Hastra Partner to Launch On-Chain Auto Loans, Expanding DeFi Credit Assets
According to Cointelegraph, blockchain lending platform Figure Technology and its on-chain credit platform Hastra have officially integrated auto loans into their tokenized credit market, further expanding the range of real-world assets (RWAs) accessible to decentralized finance (DeFi) investors. Democratized Prime—the decentralized lending marketplace operated by Figure Markets—has launched auto finance as a new asset class for the first time. Hastra has also announced its expansion to Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible chains, with plans to roll out auto loan products first on Solana and then on Ethereum in June. According to Michael Tannenbaum, CEO of Figure, the platform has generated over $22 billion in on-chain loans to date. Analysts view Figure’s tokenized lending business as experiencing significant growth and have assigned it an “outperform” rating with a $67 price target.
Analyst: BTC’s recovery is fragile; Middle East tensions may dominate market trends in 2026
According to Cointelegraph, Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and a cryptocurrency market analyst, stated that Bitcoin’s current recovery is fragile. Geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict will dominate market trends in Q2 2026, with rate cuts not expected until Q3 or Q4 at the earliest. He noted that for BTC to reach $90,000, three conditions must simultaneously be met: easing geopolitical tensions, oil prices falling back to around $80 per barrel, and weakening economic data. BTC is currently trading at approximately $71,276, facing resistance near $74,000 and still trading below its 200-day exponential moving average. Earlier, on April 6, BTC briefly rose above $73,000 but subsequently declined following the collapse of U.S.-Iran negotiations and former U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. There remains disagreement within the Federal Reserve’s FOMC regarding interest rate cuts in 2026; CME FedWatch data shows over a 98% probability that rates will be held steady at both the April 29 and June 17 meetings.
Drift: Plans to relaunch its forked exchange in May or June
According to SolanaFloor, Minhdonz, Product Lead of Drift, announced on the project’s official Discord that Drift has recently updated its relaunch timeline and plans to reintroduce its forked exchange in May or June this year. Previously, Drift suffered a severe hack involving approximately $285 million—reportedly linked to a social engineering attack by a North Korean hacker group.
Believe Founder Arrested, Faces Second-Degree Strangulation and Assault Charges
Odaily News According to public records from the New York Criminal Court, Believe founder Benjamin Pasternak was arrested on suspicion of second-degree strangulation and assault, with a court appearance scheduled for June 11. He was previously accused of involvement in a token exit scam scheme involving millions of dollars. The platform's native token BELIEVE is currently trading at approximately $0.00075, down over 99% from its all-time high of $0.3569 set in May 2025.
Polymarket Launches "When Will the Next Cryptocurrency Hack Exceeding $100 Million in Losses Occur"
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "When will the next cryptocurrency hack exceeding $100 million in losses occur". This market primarily references the Rekt News leaderboard as the adjudication source, and can also use publicly recognized reliable reports as a basis. Currently, this prediction market has set four time nodes: April 30, June 30, September 30, and December 31.The event contract rules are: This is a market regarding whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an attack or hack valued at a minimum of $100 million equivalent between the market creation and 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will ultimately resolve to "No". Hacks on decentralized exchanges and lending protocols will be counted.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Tapp Exchange will gradually cease operations, and users must withdraw their assets before May 31.
According to an official announcement, Tapp Exchange will gradually cease operations. The protocol will remain fully operational until May 31, 2026, during which users’ assets will remain secure and withdrawable. After May 31, its frontend will be taken offline, and users will only be able to withdraw funds by interacting directly with the smart contracts on-chain. Tapp Exchange stated that since its launch on Aptos in June 2025, it has built a V4-style decentralized exchange, introduced ve(3,3) voting, emission distribution, bribe infrastructure, and governance tools, achieving a cumulative trading volume of $1.95 billion.
Ethereum Protocol Fellowship Cohort 7 Applications Now Open, Deadline May 13
the Ethereum Protocol Support Team has announced the launch of Ethereum Protocol Fellowship Cohort 7 (EPF7). The application channel is now open, with a deadline of May 13th.This program is designed to cultivate engineers capable of participating in Ethereum core protocol development, focusing on the network's core attributes including censorship resistance, open-source nature, privacy, and security. Key areas of focus include client implementations, protocol specifications, testing, and cutting-edge research.EPF7 will adopt a "small-scale, high-density" model, reducing participant numbers to enhance the depth of mentorship and the quality of project contributions, while strengthening collaboration opportunities with the core development team. The project runs from June to November. Selected participants will receive mentorship support from the Ethereum core developer community. Some participants will also receive monthly grants to focus on protocol development work. The program goals include nurturing long-term contributors for the Ethereum core research and development team, and driving participants towards producing substantive results in client development and protocol research.It is reported that the EPF team will host an online information session on May 6th at 15:00 UTC to further introduce project details and answer application-related questions.
Upbit and Bithumb to Delist DRIFT
According to an official announcement, Upbit and Bithumb have stated that member companies of the Korea Digital Asset Exchange Association (DAXA) plan to terminate trading support for DRIFT. The reason for terminating DRIFT trading is that the foundation’s explanatory materials alone are insufficient to alleviate concerns that led to the project’s inclusion on the “Trading Caution List.” Furthermore, after a comprehensive review of all aspects related to the project’s progress, it was determined that the project fails to meet the criteria required to maintain trading support. DRIFT trading (buy/sell) will end on June 1, 2026, at 16:00 KST. Support for DRIFT withdrawals will be terminated on July 1, 2026, at 16:00 KST.
MegaETH Announces Eight-Week Odyssey Ahead of TGE, Tomorrow's TGE Probability Reaches 97%
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Channel shows that the probability of "MegaETH TGE Tomorrow" on Polymarket is currently at 97%, up 6% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of nearly $2.5 million.Additionally, last night MegaETH announced the launch of its Odyssey event, running from April 28 to June 23. After the event concludes, eligible participants will receive rewards based on their activity level, subject to meeting qualification requirements, sanctions screening, and successful completion of KYC verification.This market will settle as "Yes" if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date indicated in the title; otherwise, it will settle as "No".The token must be publicly transferable and tradable; a mere announcement does not constitute fulfilling the condition.This market primarily relies on official information from MegaETH as the basis for settlement, while also referencing consensus formed by credible media reports.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
Drift: Plans to relaunch its forked exchange in May or June
According to SolanaFloor, Minhdonz, Product Lead of Drift, announced on the project’s official Discord that Drift has recently updated its relaunch timeline and plans to reintroduce its forked exchange in May or June this year. Previously, Drift suffered a severe hack involving approximately $285 million—reportedly linked to a social engineering attack by a North Korean hacker group.
Cardano Developers Reduce Community Funding Applications to $46.8 Million, Advancing Scaling and Bitcoin DeFi Strategy
According to CoinDesk, Input Output, the core development company behind Cardano, has submitted nine funding proposals totaling $46.8 million to the community treasury for fiscal year 2026—a sharp reduction of approximately 52% compared to last year’s $97.5 million—marking its first step toward gradually reducing reliance on community funds. The nine proposals center on two key initiatives: First, the Leios consensus upgrade, expected to boost Cardano’s transaction throughput by 10x to 65x and target over 1,000 transactions per second (TPS); testing is scheduled for June, with full deployment planned by year-end. Second, Pogun—a Bitcoin DeFi system enabling Bitcoin holders to borrow and earn yield via Cardano without entrusting assets to centralized custodians; its lending functionality is slated for public release in Q2. Voting is being conducted by roughly 1,000 democratically elected representatives (DReps), with ballots closing on May 24. The outcome will test whether the Cardano community now views Input Output as just another ordinary funding applicant. Meanwhile, Cardano’s newly launched stablecoin USDCx has achieved a circulating supply of 14.6 million tokens within weeks of launch, and the network’s total value locked (TVL) has risen from $137.5 million to $142.7 million.
Related news
Tapp Exchange will gradually cease operations, and users must withdraw their assets before May 31.
According to an official announcement, Tapp Exchange will gradually cease operations. The protocol will remain fully operational until May 31, 2026, during which users’ assets will remain secure and withdrawable. After May 31, its frontend will be taken offline, and users will only be able to withdraw funds by interacting directly with the smart contracts on-chain. Tapp Exchange stated that since its launch on Aptos in June 2025, it has built a V4-style decentralized exchange, introduced ve(3,3) voting, emission distribution, bribe infrastructure, and governance tools, achieving a cumulative trading volume of $1.95 billion.
Greeks.live: Altcoin Market Sees Limited Recovery; Altcoin Trading Still Requires Patience
Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on platform X that on May 1st, a total of 23,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.13, a max pain point of $76,000, and a notional value of $1.74 billion. Additionally, 175,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.94, a max pain point of $2,325, and a notional value of $400 million.He pointed out that market volatility was relatively low this week, with Bitcoin fluctuating around the $78,000 level. Market sentiment has gradually calmed, short-term RV has dropped significantly, and combined with the monthly expiry releasing nearly a quarter of position margins, the implied volatility (IV) for major-term options has decreased notably this week. The IV for Bitcoin's main tenors has all fallen below 40%, while the decline in ETH's main tenors was even larger, with short-term IV dropping below 50% and medium-to-long-term IV falling below 60%.Looking at the key options data, Skew remains relatively stable, maintaining a mildly bearish directional sentiment in the market. Only 6% of options expired this week, with approximately 25% of open interest expiring at the end of May and about 30% at the end of June. Block trades are relatively inactive, all signaling a period of consolidation.He further stated that in April of this year, Bitcoin significantly outperformed the first three months in terms of both price and market attention. However, altcoins have shown only limited recovery. The current strategy is primarily centered on Bitcoin, and one should wait before engaging in altcoin trading.
Ethereum Protocol Fellowship Cohort 7 Applications Now Open, Deadline May 13
the Ethereum Protocol Support Team has announced the launch of Ethereum Protocol Fellowship Cohort 7 (EPF7). The application channel is now open, with a deadline of May 13th.This program is designed to cultivate engineers capable of participating in Ethereum core protocol development, focusing on the network's core attributes including censorship resistance, open-source nature, privacy, and security. Key areas of focus include client implementations, protocol specifications, testing, and cutting-edge research.EPF7 will adopt a "small-scale, high-density" model, reducing participant numbers to enhance the depth of mentorship and the quality of project contributions, while strengthening collaboration opportunities with the core development team. The project runs from June to November. Selected participants will receive mentorship support from the Ethereum core developer community. Some participants will also receive monthly grants to focus on protocol development work. The program goals include nurturing long-term contributors for the Ethereum core research and development team, and driving participants towards producing substantive results in client development and protocol research.It is reported that the EPF team will host an online information session on May 6th at 15:00 UTC to further introduce project details and answer application-related questions.
Report: Polymarket May Have Broader Insider Trading Issues, with a Handful of Wallets Capturing Most Profits
Odaily News According to the latest report from the non-profit research organization Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), the prediction market platform Polymarket may be facing a broader insider trading problem than previously indicated by the "Green Berets bet on Venezuela raid" incident. The research analyzed 435,000 settled markets with a cumulative trading volume of $54.4 billion between January 2021 and mid-March 2026, revealing abnormally high win rates for low-probability bets in markets related to government decisions, including military and defense matters.The data shows that the average success rate for such "longshot bets" in political markets is about 14%, while some cases involving military contracts saw success rates exceeding 50%. The study concludes that these markets are difficult to predict based solely on public information and are more susceptible to information asymmetry, including insider trading or professional informational advantages.The report also highlights a high concentration of profits on Polymarket. A study by the London Business School and Yale University indicates that approximately 3% of traders contribute to most of the platform's price discovery; meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs found that less than 1% of wallets account for about half of the profits.Taking the example of the US airstrike on Iran in June 2025, in the hours preceding the attack, 19 low-probability bets totaling $164,000 were concentrated on purchasing the "YES" contract that ultimately paid out. Eight wallets collectively profited about $1.8 million, with a single wallet making nearly $500,000. Despite the Pentagon using decoy bombers and long-range stealth fighters to deliberately conceal the operation at the time, a small number of traders accurately predicted the outcome.ACDC recommends that Polymarket strengthen identity verification, implement conditional payouts for suspicious bets, restrict markets whose outcomes are determined by a small group, and reduce overly specific contract designs. The report further calls for a broader discussion on whether the public should be allowed to bet on such events. (CoinDesk)
Upbit and Bithumb to Delist DRIFT
According to an official announcement, Upbit and Bithumb have stated that member companies of the Korea Digital Asset Exchange Association (DAXA) plan to terminate trading support for DRIFT. The reason for terminating DRIFT trading is that the foundation’s explanatory materials alone are insufficient to alleviate concerns that led to the project’s inclusion on the “Trading Caution List.” Furthermore, after a comprehensive review of all aspects related to the project’s progress, it was determined that the project fails to meet the criteria required to maintain trading support. DRIFT trading (buy/sell) will end on June 1, 2026, at 16:00 KST. Support for DRIFT withdrawals will be terminated on July 1, 2026, at 16:00 KST.
Polymarket Launches New May Crude Oil Price Prediction, Different from June, Settled Based on 1-Minute Closing Price
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new WTI crude oil price prediction for May, with multiple price tiers ranging from $20 to $150.The settlement rule stipulates that if the highest closing price of any 1-minute candlestick for the WTI crude oil futures front-month contract reaches or exceeds the predicted price, the market result is "Yes."In contrast, the June settlement rule requires the daily settlement price on the trading day to exceed the predicted price for the result to be considered "Yes."Odaily Seer remains focused on the prediction market, observing changes before they are priced in.