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JPMorgan: Four Reasons for a Bullish Outlook on US Stocks, September Rate Hike Decision Hinges on CPI
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 6, 2026 research report highlights four reasons supporting a bullish stance on US equities despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices: strong growth (GDP and EPS forecasts continue to be raised), interest rates are not too high (rising yields reflect economic expansion rather than monetary tightening), the US favors a weak dollar policy, and hedge fund positioning remains neutral to light. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations; however, whether to hike rates in September hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan projecting core CPI to rise 0.21% month-over-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed by only 60 basis points, and earnings growth is currently absorbing valuations.
Morgan Stanley: Storage Stocks Pull Back 15% to 25%, Market Shifting from Price Hike Elasticity to Earnings Sustainability
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley pointed out in its TMT webcast on July 14 that Asian memory stocks have pulled back 15% to 25% over the past month, while the chip sector overall traded sideways. Fundamentals have not reversed; it is the valuation framework that is shifting. Three key variables determine the direction: CSP capital expenditure expectations are 30% to 37% above consensus, with the end of July earnings season serving as the first validation window; LTAs are easing fears of a cyclical downturn, with price floors raised after more than half of contracts are locked; Yangtze Memory Technologies Fab4 and Fab5 each plan approximately 100kwpm capacity. If capital expenditure discipline is maintained, tight NAND supply and demand can continue until 2028; if capacity expansion accelerates, it becomes the biggest oversupply risk. Morgan Stanley assesses that the pricing logic for memory stocks is shifting from cyclical high volatility to structural mid-to-high returns; companies that can prove they possess sustainable profitability will command a valuation premium.
Fed's First Rate Hike in Three Years: Megaphone Breaks Down Policy Shift
The Federal Reserve implements its first interest rate hike in three years, with "Charts of the Fed" outlining the complete policy shift by Wachter and warning of potential risks ahead.
Fed September Interest Rate Decision Outlook: Market Bets on 25 Basis Point Hike
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month. Key highlights of the meeting include voting splits, adjustments to the dot plot, and guidance on the inflation trajectory and future policy from Chair Warsh's press conference.
Policy Volatility Coupled with Rate Hike Expectations: HTX Goes Live Focusing on the $75,000 Long-Short Battle for BTC
According to official social media announcements, HTX will host a live stream at 8 PM today titled “The Clarity Act Stalls, Fed Rate Hikes Weigh Heavily: Is the $75K $BTC Defense Line a Bear Factor Clearance or the Eve of a Breakdown?” Crypto KOLs including Chan Ge, Damo Ge, 0x31ad, FoodieNotAfraidOfFat, and Zizi will join the broadcast to discuss developments surrounding the Clarity Act, expected Federal Reserve monetary policy shifts, and their impact on cryptocurrency market liquidity. Building on BTC’s recent price action, the session will closely examine the long-versus-short dynamics around the critical $75,000 support level and outline the key variables that could shape market conditions going forward.
Replaying 2022 or Repeating 1997? A Rate Hike Is Nearly Certain, but the Real Uncertainty for US Stocks Has Just Begun
Odaily News: After US August core CPI inflation heated up again, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September rose rapidly. As a rate hike this week becomes a high-probability event, the market's focus has shifted to "how US stocks will move after the rate hike."Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, analyzed six Fed tightening cycles since 1994, and the results show that the S&P 500 usually performs weakly in the short term after the first rate hike, but outcomes one year later are notably better than in the initial months.Compared with 2022, LPL believes the underlying conditions facing the US economy amid rate hikes are clearly different now, and the current macroeconomic environment is closer to the late 1990s. However, that does not mean the 1997 market scenario will reappear. LPL previously estimated that even if the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy this cycle, the overall scale of tightening is unlikely to approach the level seen from 2022 to 2023. In the previous cycle, the Fed raised rates by a cumulative 5.25 percentage points, equivalent to 21 consecutive 25-basis-point hikes. (Investopedia)
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
US, UK, and Japanese Central Banks Take Center Stage This Week; Fed May See First Rate Hike in Three Years
The central banks of the US, Japan, and the UK will announce their monetary policy decisions this week, with markets focusing on whether the Federal Reserve will initiate its first interest rate hike in three years. Iran and Gulf states are negotiating shipping management arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz to address soaring crude oil prices.
Fed Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points, Dot Plot Suggests Possible Additional Hike This Year
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, moving the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The latest dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 officials support raising rates again within the year.
Fed September Interest Rate Decision Outlook: Market Bets on 25 Basis Point Hike
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month. Key highlights of the meeting include voting splits, adjustments to the dot plot, and guidance on the inflation trajectory and future policy from Chair Warsh's press conference.
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
UBS Recommends Buying on Dips, Fed September Rate Hike Probability Rises to Around 60%
UBS released its latest investment strategy, advising investors to capitalize on market volatility by buying stocks on dips and establishing hedge positions during gold price pullbacks. The probability of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve has currently risen to approximately 60%.
US-Iran Conflict Escalates Sharply, Fed Governor Warns of Rate Hike
US-Iran military conflict escalates sharply as both sides exchange strikes on energy and military targets; a senior Federal Reserve governor warns of interest rate hikes, while Russia signals it will strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Sticky July PCE Data Lifts Fed Rate Hike Expectations; Iran and Oman Agree on Strait Revenue Split
July U.S. PCE price index shows inflation remains sticky, with markets raising the probability of a September Fed rate hike; Iran announces a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman on Strait of Hormuz transit fees, while Russian media discloses plans to escalate strikes against Ukraine.
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China-US Economic and Trade Consultations Reach Consensus; Fed Hints at Another Rate Hike
The Ministry of Commerce stated that the eighth round of China-US economic and trade talks reached multiple areas of consensus. Several Federal Reserve officials highlighted inflation challenges and deemed another interest rate hike before year-end appropriate, as U.S. Treasury yields hit multi-year highs.
Trump Calls for End to Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Fed May Hike Rates Again
Trump stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict must end. Federal Reserve officials hinted that further interest rate hikes may be needed, the Russian government decided to extend the grain export tax exemption until the end of the year, and the European Union plans to extend sanctions against Russia.
Crypto Market Sees $345 Million in Liquidations After Fed Rate Hike, Zcash Rises 17%
Odaily News: Following the Federal Reserve's rate hike, a wave of liquidations swept through the cryptocurrency market, with traders facing a cumulative $345 million in liquidations. Zcash subsequently rose 17%. (CoinDesk)
Fed Rate Hike Dot Plot Signals Tightening; Gold Plunges as China and Japan Sell US Treasuries
The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike, with its dot plot signaling continued tightening this year, sending gold down more than $130 intraday. Trump once again called for rate cuts, while China and Japan simultaneously reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Fed's First Rate Hike in Three Years: Megaphone Breaks Down Policy Shift
The Federal Reserve implements its first interest rate hike in three years, with "Charts of the Fed" outlining the complete policy shift by Wachter and warning of potential risks ahead.
Fed Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points, Dot Plot Suggests Possible Additional Hike This Year
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, moving the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The latest dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 officials support raising rates again within the year.