Morgan Stanley: Traditional Storage Without Long-Term Contracts Not Necessarily a Bad Thing, DDR4 and SLC NAND in Strongest Price Hike Cycle

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's research report on August 14 pointed out that the fundamentals of the three major traditional memory products, DDR4, SLC NAND, and NOR Flash, continue to improve, with widening supply-demand gaps and enhanced pricing power; mainstream manufacturers are exiting DDR4 supply faster than expected. Morgan Stanley expects DDR4 prices to rise by 50% in 3Q26 and another 10%+ in 4Q26; SLC NAND prices are expected to increase by over 50% in both 3Q26 and 4Q26, with tight supply potentially extending into 2027; NOR Flash will see another price hike in 4Q26, with momentum likely extending into 1H27. The report judges that the market is overly pessimistic about pricing the sustainability of the traditional memory cycle. Morgan Stanley has comprehensively upgraded earnings forecasts for Macronix, Winbond, GigaDevice, and PSMC; AP Memory is listed as the top pick due to its SiCap business, with the preference ranking being AP Memory > GigaDevice > Macronix > Winbond > PSMC > Nanya Technology. Macronix's earnings per share for 2026 to 2028 were upgraded by 139%, 144%, and 147% respectively; GigaDevice's were upgraded by 108%, 49%, and 48% respectively. Morgan Stanley believes that the absence of LTAs (Long-Term Agreements) means no constraints on price ceilings; when supply gaps widen and pricing power rests with suppliers, traditional memory manufacturers actually have greater profit elasticity.