News linked to both this project and an event.
According to QCP Group's market report, the macro narrative has completely reversed within three weeks, with the consensus for another rate hike in October fully priced out and expectations for a Fed pause intensifying. September US non-farm payrolls increased by just 29,000, significantly below the forecast of 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while wage growth decelerated to 3.0% (the lowest pace since May 2021). This soft employment data supports the outlook for an October rate hold, pushing the probability of a hike down to approximately 22%. Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,700, with technical support at $85,000/$83,000 and resistance at $87,200/$90,000; Ethereum is trading at $2,725, with support at $2,650/$2,550 and resistance at $2,735–$2,800. The key event for this week is the release of the FOMC minutes at 2:00 AM Beijing Time on October 8, with markets focusing on whether hawkish dissent emerges and the pricing direction ahead of the CPI data on October 14.
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, moving the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The latest dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 officials support raising rates again within the year.
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month. Key highlights of the meeting include voting splits, adjustments to the dot plot, and guidance on the inflation trajectory and future policy from Chair Warsh's press conference.
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
UBS released its latest investment strategy, advising investors to capitalize on market volatility by buying stocks on dips and establishing hedge positions during gold price pullbacks. The probability of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve has currently risen to approximately 60%.
US-Iran military conflict escalates sharply as both sides exchange strikes on energy and military targets; a senior Federal Reserve governor warns of interest rate hikes, while Russia signals it will strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
July U.S. PCE price index shows inflation remains sticky, with markets raising the probability of a September Fed rate hike; Iran announces a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman on Strait of Hormuz transit fees, while Russian media discloses plans to escalate strikes against Ukraine.
Odaily News – Tom Lee posted on X, stating that the market's significant "dovish" reaction to the July jobs report is another example of the market suffering from "inflation confusion syndrome." His view is that inflation is on a downward trajectory; the market had previously been impatient and overly hawkish. Following the release of the jobs report, the probability of a September rate hike has fallen below 40%, compared to 75% just two weeks ago, when many economists had advocated for an early rate hike. Do not fight the last war.
According to Odaily, the persistent memory supply shortage driven by AI demand continues to exert upward pricing pressure on smartphone manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics, Apple, and Xiaomi in the second half of the year. Industry sources indicate that Samsung Electronics' upcoming Galaxy Z8 series, set to be released this month, has an increased likelihood of price increases based on storage capacity. The price of the 256GB base model is expected to remain at a similar level to its predecessor, approximately 3.05 million won, while the 512GB and 1TB models may see price increases of around 120,000 won each. This pricing strategy aims to minimize the price increase for the base model while prioritizing adjustments to higher-capacity models, which are more affected by memory cost pressures.
According to TechFlow Research, the latest report on Apple released by Morgan Stanley on July 14, 2026, shows that Apple increased prices for Mac, iPad, and accessories by 15-54% within two weeks. The underlying driver is forced cost hedging, rather than simple profit extraction. DRAM and NAND chip costs are expected to rise by 190% and 280% respectively in 2027. The chip cost for a single iPad will rise from $51 to $144, and this item alone could consume 30-40% of the gross profit.
Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that BTC rebounded after finding support at the dense $74,000 level last week and is now consolidating near $77,000. A key macro turning point: Nomura has withdrawn its rate-cut expectations, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike rising to 60%, completely breaking the “ceasefire → rate cuts → BTC rally” logic chain. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, ING, and JPMorgan all confirm that the rise in long-end yields is driven by three structural factors—debt expansion, AI-related investment, and an increase in the neutral interest rate—unrelated to geopolitical tensions. Bullish catalysts continue to accumulate (SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC, the ARMA reserve proposal, and the CLARITY Act), yet price remains unmoved. DVOL has fallen to ~35%, a historical extreme; no strategy is recommended for now—await DVOL’s recovery above 45% before entering.
Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Mouthpiece," wrote in The Wall Street Journal that the discussion within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path has undergone a noticeable shift. The focus is no longer primarily on when to restart rate cuts but has begun to consider under what conditions rate hikes might be necessary again. Since the Fed began releasing policy statements in 1994, disagreements over how to describe the policy direction—rather than actual rate changes—have been rare.Three regional Fed presidents, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, opposed retaining the wording "the next move is more likely a rate cut" at this week’s policy meeting, arguing that the next rate adjustment could be either a hike or a cut. Outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the committee is gradually shifting from a "rate-cut bias" to a "neutral stance" and noted that if rate hikes become necessary in the future, the Fed would first move to a neutral position before signaling increases. (WSJ)