QCP: Fed Rate Hike Probability Drops to 22%, BTC Must Hold Above $87,200 to Confirm Uptrend

According to QCP Group's market report, the macro narrative has completely reversed within three weeks, with the consensus for another rate hike in October fully priced out and expectations for a Fed pause intensifying. September US non-farm payrolls increased by just 29,000, significantly below the forecast of 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while wage growth decelerated to 3.0% (the lowest pace since May 2021). This soft employment data supports the outlook for an October rate hold, pushing the probability of a hike down to approximately 22%. Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,700, with technical support at $85,000/$83,000 and resistance at $87,200/$90,000; Ethereum is trading at $2,725, with support at $2,650/$2,550 and resistance at $2,735–$2,800. The key event for this week is the release of the FOMC minutes at 2:00 AM Beijing Time on October 8, with markets focusing on whether hawkish dissent emerges and the pricing direction ahead of the CPI data on October 14.