News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Planet Daily Report: "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated on the X platform that he remains bullish on memory stocks such as MU and Samsung. In addition, this week, the focus in the photonics sector has shifted back to AXT and Lumentum. The photonics industry has previously shown signs of supply tightness, with Coherent ($COHR) and Lumentum ($LITE) laser production capacity for the next two years already sold out. AAOI's recent earnings report also showed continued strong demand for optical modules.Meanwhile, a large number of retail investors have been panic-selling in the storage sector. There are indeed some changes in the market at present, such as Nvidia's Rubin Ultra optimizing for memory, and memory prices no longer rising as significantly as previously expected. However, at current prices, the operating profit of storage companies relative to their market capitalization remains extremely compelling, especially given the structural growth in storage demand. Moreover, the supply-demand imbalance next year could become even more severe.Serenity noted that the market tends to panic when an industry declines and follows new narratives. For example, helium during the Iran war, the LNG market, and SpaceX's earnings call, which once again emphasized storage supply tightness. Many times, industry bottlenecks and fundamentals haven't changed significantly, but market sentiment has already undergone a massive shift.
Odaily News, Citrini analyst Jukan stated on the X platform that the market may have to adopt a "short memory, long optical" trading strategy in the short term, with some hedge funds already positioning in this direction, primarily based on three reasons:First, after Korea's leveraged ETF market largely ceased to function, related investors are facing redemption pressure, which may lead to additional selling outflows. Adjustments in the capital chain of leveraged products could still put pressure on Korean memory stocks.Second, Nvidia is adjusting its next-generation AI system architecture. Nvidia may reduce the HBM configuration per cabinet for Rubin Ultra and connect multiple cabinets via optical interconnect technology, keeping Rubin Ultra cluster-level performance ahead. Even if the HBM reduction stems from supply constraints rather than declining demand, optical communications could still become a key beneficiary in AI infrastructure.Third, the market is forming a consensus that memory prices may peak within the next two quarters.However, the long-term outlook for the storage industry remains positive, though the short-term view is cautious. AI infrastructure investment is gradually shifting from a sole focus on HBM storage capacity to the overall efficiency of data center architecture, including high-speed optical interconnects and other components, which may drive funds to rotate from memory chips to optical communications in the short term.
Odaily News: Nvidia (NVDA) shares have surged more than 10% this week, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose over 8% during the same period. The sector had previously been sold off on concerns over the scale of AI infrastructure investment and high valuations of chip companies, but market sentiment has since recovered.Nvidia's gains were partly boosted by positive developments at SpaceX. During SpaceX's first earnings call, Musk stated that the company will build data centers both on the ground and in space in the future, and will exclusively use Nvidia chips.Meanwhile, the market remains focused on HBM memory supply pressure. According to The Information, Nvidia is testing a version of its Rubin Ultra chip with reduced HBM configuration to address the global shortage of high-bandwidth memory. (Yahoo Finance)
Odaily News, Citrini analyst jukan posted on X platform, according to TrendForce's latest memory industry research, the DRAM supply shortage is expected to persist through 2027, and the HBM4e certification timeline remains uncertain. NVIDIA has been reassessing the HBM configuration for Rubin Ultra since the third quarter of 2026.The original plan called for a 12-layer stacked HBM4e configuration, but NVIDIA is currently evaluating multiple designs in parallel, including HBM4e 8-layer stacking, HBM4 12-layer stacking, and HBM4 8-layer stacking, with the final specifications yet to be confirmed. In addition to NVIDIA, some CSPs are reportedly also considering reducing HBM capacity for their next-generation custom ASICs.From 2025 to the first half of 2026, NVIDIA used 12-layer stacked HBM4e as the baseline design for Rubin Ultra. However, since the beginning of the third quarter of 2026, NVIDIA has begun reviewing lower-spec alternatives. TrendForce attributes this change to two major supply-side constraints: first, the overall DRAM shortage expected in 2027 will limit the wafer capacity that memory manufacturers can allocate to HBM production; second, uncertainty remains regarding the certification timeline for 12-layer stacked HBM4e and the pace of yield improvement in mass production.TrendForce stated that NVIDIA's primary focus for the Rubin Ultra generation is improving I/O speed, with expanding GPU shipments as a secondary priority. If NVIDIA ultimately decides to downgrade the HBM specifications, it is expected to do so by reducing the number of DRAM stacking layers. Whether HBM4e can complete certification and enter mass production as planned will determine whether Rubin Ultra's I/O speed can be improved from the previous generation Rubin's 8 to 11.7Gbps to 14 to 16Gbps, or be maintained at 11 to 12Gbps through an optimized HBM4 design. Within the same product generation, the number of DRAM stacking layers determines the trade-off between HBM capacity per GPU and the number of GPUs that can be shipped.TrendForce also believes that the final configuration will depend on wafer allocation decisions made by memory manufacturers. On the supply-demand front, HBM bit shipments in 2027 are expected to grow 50% to 60% year-over-year, but are still projected to fall short of demand growth. With supply constraints persisting, HBM suppliers are expected to maintain pricing power throughout 2027. The industry has broadly anticipated significant HBM price increases, and AI chip makers will face the dual pressure of limited HBM supply and rising procurement costs, further strengthening the incentive to adopt lower HBM capacity configurations.
analyst KawzInvests stated that Moonshot AI's upcoming Kimi K3 could become a significant event in the open-source AI space, and the infrastructure demand behind it may drive growth for AI cloud service platforms. Kimi K3 has approximately 2.8 trillion parameters, making it one of the ultra-large-scale open-source models. According to Moonshot's official evaluation, the model's performance is only slightly behind frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT 5.6 Sol, and the full model weights are expected to be released on July 27.KawzInvests pointed out that a model of this scale cannot run on an ordinary laptop or even a single server; users need a computing cluster composed of a large number of GPUs to complete model loading and inference. When top-tier open-source models are made available for free, the biggest beneficiaries might not be ordinary users, but rather platforms that offer model hosting and inference services. For example, $DOCN (DigitalOcean) already supports serverless inference services for models like Kimi K2.6. Developers do not need to deploy hardware; they can call the model via API and pay per Token. Additionally, the platform hosts over 70 models and covers GPU leasing, model fine-tuning, and AI Agent development tools.As more large-scale open-source models are released, developers' demand for low-barrier AI infrastructure will continue to increase. Model hosting, inference services, and GPU cloud platforms may become key beneficiaries in the open-source AI wave.
According to Citrini analyst Jukan, FundaAI's latest report reveals that NVIDIA's NVL576 passive co-packaged optics technology nearly doubles the density of optical engines and optical components. The passive co-packaged optics technology increases the configuration volume of 3.2T optical engines per GPU from approximately 2.25 to around 4.0, an increase of 78%. It is estimated that the demand for Rubin Ultra optical engines will reach about 12 million units.This news may directly benefit direct suppliers of optical engines, including Lumentum, Coherent, POET, among others.