News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News – After surging to a record high of nearly $5,600 earlier this year, gold prices faced a sharp sell-off. In the three months through June, gold posted its worst quarterly performance since 2013, but the current sustained rebound is quickly repairing this technical breakdown. Driven by a combination of factors, gold is poised to emerge from the shadows of its worst quarterly showing in a decade. Amid the two-way tug-of-war between long-term structural deficits and short-term pullbacks, Wall Street is anchoring its 12-month gold price target at $5,400.Despite the optimistic long-term structural outlook, several analysts warn that gold still faces significant macroeconomic headwinds and potential correction pressure in the near term. (CNBC)
Odaily News: Despite the S&P 500's strong gains this year and continued capital inflows, historic seasonal selling periods, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and emerging consumer weakness are prompting Wall Street strategists to issue密集 risk warnings.The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) fell sharply to 14.2 last Friday, marking its lowest level since 2026. The index, which measures expected market volatility over the next 30 days by tracking S&P 500 option prices, typically signals that market sentiment has settled into absolute calm when it declines. Jonathan Krinsky, Managing Director and Chief Market Technical Analyst at BTIG, noted that the performance of U.S. stocks in 2026 could be described as "unusual." Since last October, the market has not experienced an extreme single-day selloff where declining stocks accounted for as much as 80% of total volume.Quantitative trading giant Susquehanna described the current volatility reset as a "substantial" decline. The firm pointed out that cross-asset and geopolitical risks remain active, with two-month implied volatility slightly rebounding to 13.5%, approaching levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran conflict.Wall Street institutions generally view mid-August to mid-October as a historically turbulent period for the market. According to BTIG's statistical model, in every midterm election year since 1990, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has experienced at least a 7% drawdown from its average high on August 18 through mid-October.
Odaily News: Wall Street quantitative trading giant Jane Street suffered losses of approximately $15 billion in the July market selloff due to its investments in AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness and other tech stocks.Sources familiar with the matter revealed that despite the significant drawdown in July, Jane Street's trading revenue this year has already exceeded $40 billion, far surpassing global major banks and other market makers, and exceeding its full-year 2025 trading revenue of $39.6 billion.In an internal memo to employees, Jane Street confirmed that July was a "rough month" for the firm. The company stated that its investment in AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, which had expanded positions due to strong performance in the first half of the year, experienced a sharp drawdown during the AI stock selloff, bringing returns on the related investment back to roughly breakeven for the year, though it remains profitable relative to the initial investment.Situational Awareness, founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, had drawn market attention for its heavy positions in AI-related stocks. After the sharp correction in the AI sector in July, the fund sold most of its stock positions to Citadel, owned by billionaire Ken Griffin, after triggering margin requirements.Jane Street noted that the losses also stemmed from its long positions in Asian non-AI stocks, which had performed strongly earlier this year. The company said many large memory and semiconductor stocks fell approximately 50% in July, causing drawdowns in its previously well-performing trading portfolio. (Reuters)
Crypto startups completed USD 11.2 billion in funding in the first half of 2026, with all disclosed capital flowing to regulated, licensed enterprises. Payments and stablecoins, prediction markets, exchanges, and trading platforms received the most funding. Major backers include Wall Street and large global financial institutions, whose investment focus is on licensed and compliant companies. Investors and founders increasingly view regulatory licenses as scarce and defensive assets, while retail investors still primarily trade on unlicensed or alternative platforms. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News: Goldman Sachs has disclosed the acquisition of ETF management firm NEOS Investments in a deal valued at up to $2.25 billion, which is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027 pending regulatory approval. The market views this move as a way for Goldman Sachs to quickly enter the Bitcoin yield ETF space, potentially putting it ahead of BlackRock in the Wall Street crypto asset competition.NEOS currently manages approximately $30 billion in assets, with its most notable product being the Bitcoin yield ETF BTCI (NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF), which holds about $1.1 billion in assets. The fund generates monthly income for investors by holding Bitcoin-related ETFs and selling call options, currently offering a distribution yield of approximately 27%.Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that by acquiring NEOS, Goldman Sachs gains BTCI, effectively bypassing the need to build a similar product from scratch and "beating" BlackRock's previously launched Bitcoin yield ETF product, BITA.Goldman Sachs' deal is seen by the market as a new phase in Wall Street's crypto asset positioning. Industry insiders believe that Bitcoin spot ETFs represent the "first phase," while active management products based on Bitcoin, such as yield enhancement and options strategies, will become the focus of competition in the next phase.However, BTCI's high yield comes with risks. The product does not directly hold Bitcoin but instead generates returns by selling call options on Bitcoin-related ETFs, potentially sacrificing some upside when the market rallies. Analysts note that BTCI's net asset value has fallen approximately 43% over the past year, and part of its high distribution yield may come from return of capital.BlackRock has already launched a competing product, BITA, but its current scale is approximately $59 million, significantly lower than BTCI's roughly $1.1 billion in assets. The market is watching whether Goldman Sachs will maintain BTCI's existing structure after the acquisition is completed and further expand its competitive advantage in the Bitcoin yield product market. (Forbes)
: Retail bearish sentiment has hit a new multi-year record, while institutional positioning lags even further behind. As U.S. equities face an unprecedented disconnect between fundamentals and capital flows, analysts predict a rare "Wall Street expectation gap" is now underway. Last week, the S&P 500 index posted a cumulative gain of 22% since late March and broke through the 7,700-point mark for the first time in history. As investors digested the latest batch of earnings reports, the benchmark index closed roughly flat on Monday.Strategists at 22V Research have observed a notable divergence between the AAII Bull-Bear Spread and the firm's proprietary economic data index, which tracks a range of U.S. macro data releases. According to the firm's model, the current valuation deviation implies that the S&P 500 will rise by 1.6%, 5.1%, and 7.8% over the next one, three, and six months, respectively.Dennis DeBusschere, President and Chief Market Strategist at 22V Research, wrote in a note to clients: "The current reading of investor sentiment relative to economic data suggests market returns will be above normal levels."Alastair Pinder, Global Equity Strategist at HSBC, also noted that the many macro concerns that have emerged over the past few weeks have indeed given investors ample reason to question the current stock market rally.
Odaily News: Part of hardware wallet manufacturer Coldcard's firmware had a random number generation vulnerability in 2021, causing some mnemonic phrases generated by the devices to carry predictable risks. The vulnerability was only discovered years later, and by then approximately 5,200 addresses and around 2,000 BTC had been stolen, with losses totaling about $130 million. Following the incident, some investors turned to Wall Street custody products. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $626 million within days of the event. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that security incidents like this could further drive capital flows into ETFs. The Bitcoin core community continues to uphold the principle of self-custody. Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp said recent events should not weaken user confidence in self-custody, as third-party custody carries risks as well. Early Bitcoin Core developer Peter Todd stated that self-custody has a better long-term security track record than centralized institutions. Michael Tanguma, co-founder of Bitcoin custody platform Onramp, said both approaches have flaws: concentrating large amounts of assets in a single institution creates a "honey pot," while hardware wallets face risks related to supply chains, firmware, and random number generation. Michael Tanguma proposed a "multi-institution custody" approach, in which multiple regulated institutions each hold keys through a multi-signature mechanism, and any transaction requires joint signing by multiple institutions to reduce the risk of single points of failure. Critics argue that while multi-institution custody improves security, it also introduces permissioned management, which conflicts with the decentralized ideals Bitcoin originally pursued. As Bitcoin enters pension funds, trusts, and institutional asset allocation, the industry is seeking custody solutions suitable for long-term wealth management. How to strike a balance among security, decentralization, and usability remains a challenge facing the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Odaily News: U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, significantly missing market expectations. Although seasonal factors and the fading of the World Cup dividend disrupted the data, this still notably weakens the Federal Reserve's momentum for a September rate hike, shifting market focus to next week's CPI.Despite the "dismal" surface data, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon is actually attributed to a cumulative 0.7 percentage point decline in the labor force participation rate since the beginning of the year.Analysts are divided in their interpretation of this "terrible" report. Thomas Ryan, Senior Economist at Capital Economics, stated bluntly that although the current weakness has not yet shown up in broader indicators, it is sufficient to prompt Fed officials to reassess the health of the labor market and reduce their willingness to further tighten monetary policy in the near term.In the face of this report, which Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, called "extremely terrible," the capital markets demonstrated typical contrarian logic. As traders bet that the rate hike process would stop here, U.S. stock futures rose accordingly, and Treasury yields collectively declined. According to data from CME Group's tools, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike has rapidly fallen from 55% on Thursday to 44%.
Odaily News: Cybersecurity company Cloudflare released its earnings report and raised its full-year profit outlook, projecting adjusted earnings per share of $1.25 to $1.26 for 2026, up from the previously estimated $1.19 to $1.20 and exceeding Wall Street analysts' expectations of $1.20.The company's second-quarter results also surpassed market expectations. Cloudflare stated that as AI applications expand rapidly, demand for network infrastructure and security services from enterprises continues to grow. CEO Matthew Prince noted that the internet is shifting toward AI answer engines and agent-driven business models, with machine-to-machine traffic reshaping the network ecosystem.In May this year, Cloudflare announced layoffs of approximately one-fifth of its workforce and advanced its AI agent-first strategy. The company's stock price has risen 44% year-to-date. (Bloomberg)
According to Bloomberg reports, SpaceX stock performed relatively steadily on Thursday following the expiration of the lock-up period (lock-up agreement) restricting insiders from selling shares, involving the unlocking of up to approximately 911.5 million shares valued at about $100 billion based on current valuation. Trading data shows SpaceX stock price fluctuated within a range of less than 3% during early trading, as the market digests the potential selling pressure brought by this large-scale share release. Trading volume in the first 30 minutes after the opening approached 93 million shares, accounting for about 40% of the total volume of the previous trading day. This unlocking occurred shortly after SpaceX announced its first earnings report. Previously, SpaceX stock price once fell about 14% due to investor concerns that the company's investment scale in artificial intelligence business was higher than expected. However, most Wall Street analysts still maintain a long-term optimistic view on the company. Market focus includes SpaceX's future investment plans in AI, satellite internet, and mobile communication businesses. Despite facing capital expenditure pressure in the short term, analysts believe the company's leading position in rocket launches, Starlink satellite network, and commercial space sectors remains an important factor supporting its long-term valuation. This stock unlocking of about $100 billion has also become an important event for the market to test investor confidence after SpaceX's listing. The lack of significant stock price fluctuations indicates that the market had certain expectations regarding the liquidity release from internal shareholders.
Odaily Odaily News: Wall Street investment firm Bernstein has reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating on stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Financial, maintaining a $140 price target.Bernstein stated that Circle's second-quarter performance effectively addressed previous market concerns regarding intensifying stablecoin competition and the growth potential of reserve asset income. Analysts believe that Circle's expanding partnerships, regulatory licensing progress, and the upcoming Arc blockchain project will bring new revenue streams to the company—growth drivers that are not yet fully reflected in current market expectations.As the stablecoin market continues to expand, Circle is expected to further broaden its business model through payment infrastructure, on-chain financial services, and ecosystem collaborations, with its future growth potential still underestimated by the market. (The Block)
According to Fortune magazine, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio issued his strongest market warning to date on the "CEO Diary" program, explicitly stating that the current market bubble driven by the AI boom has exhibited "classic characteristics" highly similar to those on the eve of the 1929 Great Depression and the 2000 internet bubble. He directly expressed agreement with the assessment made by Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO and a previous guest on the same program, who called it "the largest investment bubble in American history." Dalio pointed out that the core crisis of the bubble lies in the "confusion between wealth and money"—the paper wealth held by investors cannot be directly consumed. Once the market reverses and everyone sells off simultaneously, asset prices could plummet from $100 to $25, while debt remains not a penny less. He also identified two trigger factors for "bursting the bubble": rising interest rates and a surge in stock issuances. Currently, SpaceX has completed the largest IPO in history, and Anthropic and OpenAI are rushing to list with trillion-dollar valuations, which is precisely the real-world manifestation of the latter. In terms of bubble judgments, Wall Street institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Apollo, and BCA Research are also shifting stance, acknowledging that there is an "earnings bubble" in the technology sector rather than a simple valuation bubble. Dalio places this round of risk within his "Big Cycle" framework, warning that the bubble bursting is not only a financial event but could also become a trigger for political polarization and geopolitical conflicts—at that time, the real risk may not be portfolio losses, but rather with
Odaily News - After Coinbase's Q2 results fell short of market expectations, the stock briefly dropped to a roughly two-and-a-half-year low on Friday morning before paring losses to around $150. Over the past year, the stock is still down approximately 57%.Wall Street generally believes Coinbase underperformed this quarter, but opinions differ on the cause: some analysts attribute it mainly to a weak crypto market environment, while others have begun to question whether the company's growth strategy beyond its trading business can deliver.JPMorgan stated that Coinbase's results reflect a "challenging crypto environment," with new products contributing limited value to the income statement. The bank lowered its December 2026 price target for Coinbase from $196 to $148, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating. JPMorgan believes the company faces pressure across multiple business lines, with weak trading volumes dragging down transaction revenue and subscription and services revenue also under strain.Bernstein, on the other hand, believes Coinbase's long-term strategy remains attractive, but investors want to see more compelling execution, particularly in new business areas such as prediction markets and tokenized stocks.Mizuho warned that Robinhood is emerging as the mainstream alternative for retail crypto trading. Overall, Coinbase is still viewed as an important representative of U.S. crypto compliance infrastructure, but its valuation recovery increasingly depends on proving it is more than just a crypto exchange reliant on trading cycles.
During the 11th year of Ethereum, the Ethereum Foundation underwent organizational restructuring, including leadership departures, layoffs, the introduction of a new CROPS mandate, and the spin-off of EthLabs, Ethereum Systems, and Ethereum Institutional as independent entities. The Ethereum Foundation seeks to further decentralize its role within the ecosystem. Concurrently, Ethereum continued to advance its technology and institutional adoption, launching the Fusaka upgrade and attracting participation from Wall Street institutions such as BlackRock and JPMorgan; cumulative inflows into US spot Ethereum ETFs have exceeded $11.23 billion.
Intel Corporation's second-quarter revenue was $16.13 billion, up 25% year-over-year, compared to estimates of $14.43 billion. Second-quarter Data Center and AI revenue was $6.26 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $5.54 billion. Second-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.42, exceeding analyst estimates of $0.21. The company expects third-quarter revenue between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion, compared to analyst estimates of $15.06 billion. The company anticipates third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.38, exceeding analyst estimates of $0.27. (Wall Street CN)According to MSX.COM data, Intel shares surged in after-hours trading, rising as much as 13% before gains narrowed to 3%.
According to The Wall Street Journal, following Moonshot AI's release of the low-cost, high-performance large model Kimi K3, Wall Street has once again seen concerns about a "DeepSeek-style shock," with the AI chip sector facing selling pressure. Morgan Stanley stated that the market may experience AI industry turbulence similar to that triggered by DeepSeek in early 2025, where the rise of low-cost, high-performance AI models could challenge top U.S. model developers such as OpenAI and Anthropic, while simultaneously weakening demand for the large-scale compute infrastructure underpinning the U.S. AI investment boom.
In response to this, Senator Ron Wyden, the senior Democratic member of the Senate Finance Committee, criticized the move, stating that it would benefit the Trump family and "make Wall Street traders rich." Legal experts, however, stated that tiered distribution of information by tech platforms does not violate federal securities laws.
Odaily News: Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform, stating that DTCC Digital Assets head Nadine Chakar said on the Trillions podcast that DTCC processes $4000 trillion in settlements annually. No blockchain can currently handle this scale, so they are collaborating with Canton, Stellar, and several other parties to advance Wall Street tokenization projects.
According to Fortune, DeFi asset management and risk analysis company Gauntlet completed a $125 million financing round, exclusively invested by Japanese financial group SBI Holdings. The financing was completed in June this year, and the specific valuation was not disclosed. This is Gauntlet's largest financing round since its establishment in 2018, far exceeding its $24 million Series B round in 2022 led by Ribbit Capital at a $1 billion valuation. Gauntlet was founded by former Wall Street quantitative trader Tarun Chitra. It initially focused on providing stress testing and vulnerability analysis services for DeFi protocols. Later, as the DAO governance model waned, it gradually transitioned to a "treasury curation" business—assessing yield strategy risks through quantitative analysis to help institutional investors manage digital asset allocation. Currently, its clients include asset management giant Apollo, Coinbase, and stablecoin issuer Circle.
Jeremy Grantham, renowned investor, co-founder, and chief investment strategist at GMO, stated that the market might look back on the SpaceX listing in 50 years with a sense of "mockery," calling it "the most outrageous IPO in human history."Grantham believes that SpaceX’s grand vision of "making humanity a multi-planetary species," coupled with the market’s current strong enthusiasm for the company, could be viewed by investors in the future as excessive optimism. "Everyone is lining up to tell you to buy the most outrageous IPO in human history. 50 years from now, people will quote paragraphs from the prospectus and laugh about it," he said.Since SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100, it has garnered significant institutional attention, but its stock price has faced pressure recently. Currently, SpaceX’s stock is down about 7% from its one-month high, hovering around $150, only slightly above its IPO target price of $135.Wall Street institutions are divided on SpaceX’s future valuation. Morgan Stanley reportedly has given it a $300 price target, while Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a target of around $205. JPMorgan Chase believes that Elon Musk’s goal of achieving $1 trillion in revenue by 2031 is "theoretically achievable" but would require extremely strong execution capabilities.Grantham also pointed out that one of SpaceX’s biggest risks is its heavy reliance on Musk’s personal leadership. He noted that Musk holds approximately 82% of the voting control, which serves as both a key driver of SpaceX’s culture and innovation capability, and a source of risk related to governance structure and leadership changes.However, Grantham acknowledged that SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq index could generate additional buying pressure. He said that as a large amount of funds tracking the Nasdaq index are forced to allocate to SpaceX stock, market demand may exceed supply, thereby pushing the stock price up.Nevertheless, he believes that in the long run, SpaceX still faces significant challenges. If the valuation logic for the company ultimately holds, the future world could undergo drastic changes driven by the development of artificial intelligence and automation technologies. Conversely, if expectations fail to materialize, this IPO would also become a landmark event in financial history. (Fortune)