Ray Dalio: AI Bubble Severity Comparable to Eve of 1929 Great Depression and 2000 Internet Crash

According to Fortune magazine, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio issued his strongest market warning to date on the "CEO Diary" program, explicitly stating that the current market bubble driven by the AI boom has exhibited "classic characteristics" highly similar to those on the eve of the 1929 Great Depression and the 2000 internet bubble. He directly expressed agreement with the assessment made by Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO and a previous guest on the same program, who called it "the largest investment bubble in American history." Dalio pointed out that the core crisis of the bubble lies in the "confusion between wealth and money"—the paper wealth held by investors cannot be directly consumed. Once the market reverses and everyone sells off simultaneously, asset prices could plummet from $100 to $25, while debt remains not a penny less. He also identified two trigger factors for "bursting the bubble": rising interest rates and a surge in stock issuances. Currently, SpaceX has completed the largest IPO in history, and Anthropic and OpenAI are rushing to list with trillion-dollar valuations, which is precisely the real-world manifestation of the latter. In terms of bubble judgments, Wall Street institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Apollo, and BCA Research are also shifting stance, acknowledging that there is an "earnings bubble" in the technology sector rather than a simple valuation bubble. Dalio places this round of risk within his "Big Cycle" framework, warning that the bubble bursting is not only a financial event but could also become a trigger for political polarization and geopolitical conflicts—at that time, the real risk may not be portfolio losses, but rather with