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SpaceX's First Financial Report Unveiled Tonight, Starlink, Starship, and AI Businesses Undergo Simultaneous Scrutiny
According to Jin10 Data, SpaceX will announce its first earnings report since listing after the US stock market close on Tuesday. Since listing on June 12, the company's stock price has fallen nearly 50% from its high, with market capitalization shrinking by over $500 billion. As of Monday's close, it was reported at $114.53, approximately 15% lower than the IPO issuance price. Market focus centers on three key areas: • Starlink: S&P Global expects Q2 revenue to reach $6.9 billion, primarily driven by Starlink, which is currently SpaceX's only profitable business segment; • AI: SpaceX's AI business revenue was $818 million in the first three months of this year. It has reached compute supply cooperation agreements with Google, Anthropic, etc., and acquired coding startup Cursor (approximately $60 billion); • Starship: The 13th test flight was completed, but the booster experienced a hard landing. Analyst firm Bernstein believes Starship is one of the most critical factors supporting the high valuation. Additionally, after the lock-up period ends on Thursday, over 911 million shares (market value approximately $100 billion) will be unlocked for circulation. Coupled with short selling funds' paper profits reaching $8.3 billion, market selling pressure cannot be ignored.
ARK Invest: Starlink is the Key Business Supporting SpaceX's Nearly $2 Trillion Valuation
Odaily ARK Invest stated that SpaceX's upcoming IPO could become a historic capital markets event, with the company's overall valuation potentially approaching the $2 trillion level. Brett Winton, Head of Portfolio and Research at ARK, said on CNBC that SpaceX's IPO is priced at approximately $135 per share, corresponding to a valuation of around $1.77 trillion, and plans to list on Nasdaq on June 12.Winton pointed out that SpaceX's core value comes not only from its rocket launch business but more so from its rapidly expanding satellite internet network, Starlink. This network currently has a bandwidth capacity of approximately 500 Tbps, generating an annual revenue of around $13 billion. It is expected to significantly reduce launch costs with the Starship rocket, accelerating satellite deployment and network expansion. He believes that as AI applications proliferate rapidly, the demand for global communication and computing infrastructure will further increase, positioning SpaceX as a key infrastructure provider in this trend. ARK also estimates that the AI foundation model industry could create between $15 trillion and $20 trillion in enterprise value by 2030.Currently, ARK holds approximately 11.4% of SpaceX's private shares through its venture capital strategy and considers it one of its core long-term holdings. The fund has risen about 15% so far this year, with gains exceeding 70% over the past 12 months. (CNBC)
SpaceX Warns Investors Orbital AI Data Centers May Not Achieve Commercialization
Odaily News SpaceX stated in its IPO filing documents that orbital AI computing, along with lunar and Martian industrialization efforts, are still in their early stages and involve significant technical complexities, potentially preventing them from achieving commercialization. Elon Musk once called space AI computing an obvious choice, believing that orbit could become the lowest-cost location for AI within two to three years. The document warns that orbital AI data centers operate in harsh and unpredictable space environments, where system failures may occur. Additionally, delays in the development of Starship could also limit the company's growth strategy. SpaceX currently targets a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion and plans to raise $75 billion in the coming months.
SpaceX's First Financial Report Unveiled Tonight, Starlink, Starship, and AI Businesses Undergo Simultaneous Scrutiny
According to Jin10 Data, SpaceX will announce its first earnings report since listing after the US stock market close on Tuesday. Since listing on June 12, the company's stock price has fallen nearly 50% from its high, with market capitalization shrinking by over $500 billion. As of Monday's close, it was reported at $114.53, approximately 15% lower than the IPO issuance price. Market focus centers on three key areas: • Starlink: S&P Global expects Q2 revenue to reach $6.9 billion, primarily driven by Starlink, which is currently SpaceX's only profitable business segment; • AI: SpaceX's AI business revenue was $818 million in the first three months of this year. It has reached compute supply cooperation agreements with Google, Anthropic, etc., and acquired coding startup Cursor (approximately $60 billion); • Starship: The 13th test flight was completed, but the booster experienced a hard landing. Analyst firm Bernstein believes Starship is one of the most critical factors supporting the high valuation. Additionally, after the lock-up period ends on Thursday, over 911 million shares (market value approximately $100 billion) will be unlocked for circulation. Coupled with short selling funds' paper profits reaching $8.3 billion, market selling pressure cannot be ignored.
Futurum Analyst: SpaceX’s Full Bet on Starship Could Create a Rocket Launch Capacity Gap, Benefiting RKLB
In response to the news that “SpaceX will stop accepting new commercial orders for the Falcon 9,” Futurum Equities Chief Market Strategist Shay Boloor stated that if Starship fails to achieve successful commercialization by 2028, this shift could create a significant gap in rocket launch capabilities, potentially benefiting second-tier launch service providers such as Rocket Lab (RKLB).This morning, sources revealed that SpaceX has begun declining exclusive commercial launch orders for the Falcon 9 scheduled after 2028, and has suspended accepting new reservations for its Rideshare program, in order to accelerate the transition to Starship.
HSBC: Starlink Users Surpass 12 Million as Space Race Boosts Earth-Based Industries in Three Ways
According to Trend Research, an HSBC report released on August 18 spanning 12 industries points out that SpaceX's Starlink has crossed the inflection point for scale. As of June 30, it operates 10,200 satellites in orbit and serves 12 million broadband subscribers across 167 markets. Additionally, 7.4 million monthly active devices connect directly to mobile phones via satellite (Direct to Cell), covering 30 countries. Maersk has installed Starlink on more than 330 container ships, while United Airlines plans to upgrade 15 Boeing 737-800 aircraft per month. Starship aims to reduce launch costs to $100–$300 per kilogram, representing a decline of over 95% compared to historical averages. HSBC assesses that the space race is now benefiting terrestrial industries across three dimensions: From a communications standpoint, Starlink and ground-based telecom operators are predominantly complementary, filling coverage gaps in oceanic, desert, and post-disaster environments. Regarding compute infrastructure, orbital data centers currently cost three times as much as ground-based equivalents, acting mainly as strategic reserves; however, if TeraFab’s vertically integrated wafer fabs succeed, they could revolutionize the division of labor in the semiconductor industry. At the energy level, AI data centers have pushed the annual growth rate of U.S. power demand to 4%-5%, making renewable energy and the electrical grid the largest beneficiaries. Among the 12 industries covered, power, semiconductors, and robotics are being directly transformed.
Bybit Launches “Starship Launch: Space Invitation Challenge” Campaign—Up to $4,850 in Prizes for Individual Participants
According to the official announcement, Bybit officially launched its limited-time “Invite Friends” campaign on June 12, 2026. The campaign runs for 30 days and leverages the buzz around SpaceX’s Nasdaq IPO, featuring a Starship-themed multi-tiered rewards system to incentivize users to invite friends to register and deposit funds. The campaign begins immediately and ends on July 12 at 10:00 AM, offering multiple participation methods:
ARK Invest: Starlink is the Key Business Supporting SpaceX's Nearly $2 Trillion Valuation
Odaily ARK Invest stated that SpaceX's upcoming IPO could become a historic capital markets event, with the company's overall valuation potentially approaching the $2 trillion level. Brett Winton, Head of Portfolio and Research at ARK, said on CNBC that SpaceX's IPO is priced at approximately $135 per share, corresponding to a valuation of around $1.77 trillion, and plans to list on Nasdaq on June 12.Winton pointed out that SpaceX's core value comes not only from its rocket launch business but more so from its rapidly expanding satellite internet network, Starlink. This network currently has a bandwidth capacity of approximately 500 Tbps, generating an annual revenue of around $13 billion. It is expected to significantly reduce launch costs with the Starship rocket, accelerating satellite deployment and network expansion. He believes that as AI applications proliferate rapidly, the demand for global communication and computing infrastructure will further increase, positioning SpaceX as a key infrastructure provider in this trend. ARK also estimates that the AI foundation model industry could create between $15 trillion and $20 trillion in enterprise value by 2030.Currently, ARK holds approximately 11.4% of SpaceX's private shares through its venture capital strategy and considers it one of its core long-term holdings. The fund has risen about 15% so far this year, with gains exceeding 70% over the past 12 months. (CNBC)
Related news
HSBC: Starlink Users Surpass 12 Million as Space Race Boosts Earth-Based Industries in Three Ways
According to Trend Research, an HSBC report released on August 18 spanning 12 industries points out that SpaceX's Starlink has crossed the inflection point for scale. As of June 30, it operates 10,200 satellites in orbit and serves 12 million broadband subscribers across 167 markets. Additionally, 7.4 million monthly active devices connect directly to mobile phones via satellite (Direct to Cell), covering 30 countries. Maersk has installed Starlink on more than 330 container ships, while United Airlines plans to upgrade 15 Boeing 737-800 aircraft per month. Starship aims to reduce launch costs to $100–$300 per kilogram, representing a decline of over 95% compared to historical averages. HSBC assesses that the space race is now benefiting terrestrial industries across three dimensions: From a communications standpoint, Starlink and ground-based telecom operators are predominantly complementary, filling coverage gaps in oceanic, desert, and post-disaster environments. Regarding compute infrastructure, orbital data centers currently cost three times as much as ground-based equivalents, acting mainly as strategic reserves; however, if TeraFab’s vertically integrated wafer fabs succeed, they could revolutionize the division of labor in the semiconductor industry. At the energy level, AI data centers have pushed the annual growth rate of U.S. power demand to 4%-5%, making renewable energy and the electrical grid the largest beneficiaries. Among the 12 industries covered, power, semiconductors, and robotics are being directly transformed.
Morgan Stanley: Blades and Impellers Become New Bottleneck for AI Power Supply, SpaceX Builds Own Foundry to Break Through Compute Scale Ceiling
According to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley's August 16 research report pointed out that the AI data center computing power competition is shifting from chips to power, with gas turbine blades and impellers becoming the new bottleneck. Globally, only three foundries can produce large gas turbine hot-end blades and impellers, and orders are already booked through 2030. SpaceX built a new foundry in Bastrop, Texas, meeting the demand for both data center turbines and Starship Raptor engine turbopumps through vertical integration. SpaceX has secured about 3 to 4GW of gas turbine supply, with publicly disclosed commitments totaling nearly 8GW. Musk proposed a 10GW computing power target by the end of 2027; Morgan Stanley currently models only 5GW, with the gap lying in power supply timing. The report estimates that each GW of computing power represents an annual revenue opportunity of about $50 billion. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating and $300 target price for SpaceX, with an SOTP breakdown of $18 for Space business, $118 for Connectivity, $8 for X and Grok, and $165 for Enterprise AI. The current stock price is about $141, with the market pricing Enterprise AI at only about $13, approximately 1x 2028 EV/Revenue. Morgan Stanley believes the pullback following the lock-up expiration provides an entry window; if SpaceX can prove it will push computing power to 5GW or even higher by the end of 2027, the Enterprise AI business
Goldman Sachs: SpaceX's First Financial Report Fully Exceeds Expectations, AI Business Becomes New Growth Pole
According to TechFlow Research, SpaceX's first earnings report after listing showed Q2 revenue exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations by about 17%, with GAAP operating profit exceeding by about 92%. AI business quarterly revenue was $7.67 billion, far exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectation of $5.6 billion; Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 AI revenue forecast by 49% to $23.3 billion. Starlink broadband subscriber count exceeded expectations, quarterly ARPU was flat quarter-over-quarter, and management expects to achieve a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by December. Starship's 14th launch may take place within a month, with hopes to achieve the first orbital attempt. Goldman Sachs raised the target price from $205 to $220, maintaining a Buy rating; the current stock price of $125 implies about 76% upside potential. Goldman Sachs believes SpaceX is simultaneously opening three trillion-level markets: space launch, satellite connectivity, and AI computing power. Short-term lock-up expiration may bring stock price volatility, but the medium-to-long-term risk-reward ratio is attractive. Goldman Sachs expects 2026 full-year free cash flow to be negative $26.3 billion, with capital expenditure remaining high.
SpaceX's First Financial Report Unveiled Tonight, Starlink, Starship, and AI Businesses Undergo Simultaneous Scrutiny
According to Jin10 Data, SpaceX will announce its first earnings report since listing after the US stock market close on Tuesday. Since listing on June 12, the company's stock price has fallen nearly 50% from its high, with market capitalization shrinking by over $500 billion. As of Monday's close, it was reported at $114.53, approximately 15% lower than the IPO issuance price. Market focus centers on three key areas: • Starlink: S&P Global expects Q2 revenue to reach $6.9 billion, primarily driven by Starlink, which is currently SpaceX's only profitable business segment; • AI: SpaceX's AI business revenue was $818 million in the first three months of this year. It has reached compute supply cooperation agreements with Google, Anthropic, etc., and acquired coding startup Cursor (approximately $60 billion); • Starship: The 13th test flight was completed, but the booster experienced a hard landing. Analyst firm Bernstein believes Starship is one of the most critical factors supporting the high valuation. Additionally, after the lock-up period ends on Thursday, over 911 million shares (market value approximately $100 billion) will be unlocked for circulation. Coupled with short selling funds' paper profits reaching $8.3 billion, market selling pressure cannot be ignored.
Cathie Wood: Although SpaceX has fallen below its IPO price, the bull market is not over yet
Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, posted on X platform that the successful splashdown of SpaceX's Starship last Friday may be a turning point for SpaceX. However, the company's stock price fell further below its IPO price at the opening on Monday. Cathie Wood believes that the stock market is climbing a "wall of worry," but the bull market will not end here. She emphasized that the end of a bull market often comes only when everyone believes that the future holds unlimited possibilities.
Polymarket probability of "SpaceX Starship to conduct 13th test flight on July 24" rises to 77%, up 16% in 24 hours
Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "SpaceX Starship's 13th test flight on July 24" has risen to 77%, up 16% in 24 hours; the probability for a test flight on July 25 has risen to 83%, up 35% in 24 hours.SpaceX previously announced that the 13th test flight of the Starship was postponed to July 24 due to weather conditions, but it remains uncertain whether weather issues still persist. SpaceX made its first attempt at the Starship's 13th test flight on July 17, but the automatic launch abort sequence was triggered as some Raptor engines failed to start as expected, resulting in the failure of the initial attempt. It is reported that SpaceX is currently "going all-in" on Starship and has already begun declining commercial Falcon rocket launch orders for periods after 2028.Join the PPP Signal Push Community, get ahead, seize the opportunity.