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Record is a credibly neutral infrastructure that makes fandom contributions measurable, verifiable, and valuable, laying the foundation for IPFi ecosystem powered by fandom. Currently in the private R&D phase, Record aims to become a fully open-source protocol serving all forms of IP and fandom contribution.
Morgan Stanley: CoreWeave Adds Record 500MW Capacity in Single Quarter, High Debt and Customer Concentration Weigh on Valuation
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's August Q2 earnings report indicated that CoreWeave added 500MW of net active power in a single quarter, exceeding any quarter in history, more than three times year-over-year. Management reaffirmed the target of reaching at least 8GW before 2030. FY26 revenue guidance midpoint was raised 2% to $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion, ARR midpoint was raised 3% to $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion. The company raised full-year capital expenditure guidance midpoint by 12% to $35.5 billion to $39.0 billion, Q3 capital expenditure guidance is $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion, higher than the market expectation of $10 billion. Managed Inference Platform (managed inference platform) ARR grew from $1 million to over $100 million, expected to reach at least $250 million by year-end. The research report judges that Q2 adjusted operating margin was about 8%, higher than expected, but Q3 margin guidance of 5.8% to 7.2% is lower than market expectations, Q4 margin needs to increase significantly to achieve full-year guidance. Morgan Stanley expects CoreWeave FY27 operating margin to be 15.9%, FY28 to be 22.4%, free cash flow to remain negative until 2028, and debt is expected to increase to approximately $38 billion by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley maintains Equal-weight (in line with the market) rating and $99 price target.
Goldman Sachs: IPO Surge Hits Record, Danger Signal Hasn't Flashed Yet
According to TechFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' July 20 Top of Mind report pointed out that U.S. IPO proceeds in 2026 have already exceeded $125 billion, breaking the full-year record of 2021, and are expected to exceed $200 billion for the full year. But the number of IPOs is only about 60, far lower than the 400 in 1999 and 250 in 2021 during bubble periods, mainly driven by a few mega-tech companies. Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Snider believes late-cycle warning signals have not yet appeared, the household sector has become net buyers, annualized IPO proceeds account for only about 1% of the S&P 500 market cap, and market absorption capacity is underestimated. University of Florida Professor Ritter pointed out that high issuance volume predicts low returns, but the signal accuracy is only slightly higher than random (about 52%). Acadian Fund Manager Lamont warned that the issuance wave is one of the "Four Horsemen" of bubbles, but may mark the beginning rather than the end of a bubble; currently, first-day gains do not show extreme speculation signals. All three experts believe that IPO volume is moderate, valuations have not reached bubble levels, first-day gains are not out of control, and true danger signals have not yet appeared. Snider expects company buybacks in 2026 to be about $1.3 trillion, enough to offset new supply. If the AI narrative or corporate earnings undergo a significant shift, market and IPO prospects will change accordingly.
SpaceX IPO Drives Record Tokenized Stock Trading, June On-Chain Volume Reaches $3.86 Billion
According to Odaily, driven by the hype surrounding SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO), the tokenized stock market hit a record high for trading activity in June, with on-chain transaction volume reaching $3.86 billion, a 145% increase from May. Among the trades, tokenized SpaceX stocks accounted for $1.19 billion, representing approximately 31% of the total tokenized stock volume in June. The SPCX token launched by Backpack Securities became the most actively traded tokenized SpaceX stock product, with a single-month on-chain trading volume of $1.08 billion.Data indicates that this growth surge was primarily fueled by demand for SpaceX-related assets. Previously, SpaceX completed a $75 billion IPO, marking the largest IPO in history, and the company is valued at approximately $1.8 trillion on a fully diluted basis. Traditional popular assets such as Nvidia, Tesla, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) remained actively traded, but none matched the market heat of tokenized SpaceX stocks. Additionally, the total market capitalization of the tokenized stock market rose to $1.53 billion in June, up 6.64% from the previous month, marking the 15th consecutive month of growth. (CoinDesk)
US IPO Boom Sets Record: H1 Financing Reaches $251 Billion, AI-Driven New Wave of Listings May Continue
according to market sources, data shows that U.S. IPO and stock issuance reached a record high in the first half of 2026, with total financing amounting to $251 billion. SpaceX's record-breaking listing was one of the main drivers. Investment bankers expect a stronger IPO pipeline in the third quarter, with AI-related companies serving as the core driving force. Multiple heavyweight companies, including Anthropic, are still expected to push forward with their listing processes. The market generally believes that AI capital expenditure and the high-valuation environment for tech stocks are jointly supporting the continuation of this IPO boom cycle.
STRC Perpetual Preferred Shares Record $1.1 Billion in Daily Trading Volume, Continuously Fueling the Engine for BTC Accumulation
Odaily News Bitcoin treasury company Strategy's perpetual preferred shares, STRC, recorded approximately $1.1 billion in trading volume on April 13, representing a nearly 47% increase from the previous record. This has become a core financing tool for the company to accelerate its Bitcoin accumulation. Strategy raises capital by selling preferred shares like STRC and uses the funds for high-frequency Bitcoin purchases.Data shows that Strategy recently purchased 13,927 BTC for approximately $1 billion, bringing its total holdings to 780,897 BTC. The related funds primarily came from the issuance of over 10 million STRC shares. Within the overall capital plan, STRC, along with STRK, STRF, STRD, and common stock financing, constitutes its "42/42" financing framework. The goal is to raise $84 billion by 2027 for continuous Bitcoin purchases. Current market views suggest that STRC is gradually becoming the dominant instrument within this financing system. (The Block)
Compound Finance Approves Record $52 Million Budget, Pivots to Institutional Clients
Odaily News: Decentralized lending protocol Compound Finance has completed a leadership overhaul and approved a record $52 million budget. The protocol's total value locked has fallen from a peak of $12 billion in 2021 to $1.2 billion, and it is now seeking to restore growth. Compound Finance is pivoting to serve institutional clients, developing real-world asset products, partner integration solutions, and credit infrastructure to meet the compliance and technical standards of traditional finance. Industry executives say Compound Finance's new leadership team and substantial budget align with the broader shift within the decentralized finance sector toward serving financial institutions. The sector's overall assets had previously declined due to market weakness and security breach incidents. (CoinDesk)
Moonshot AI Responds to Allegations of Distilling Fable for K3: Only 15 Days Between Releases
Moonshot AI employee Randy responded on X platform to White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios’ remarks regarding Moonshot AI using Anthropic’s Fable to distill and develop the K3 model. He stated that Fable made its public debut on July 1, while K3 was launched on July 15. The team trained a brand-new frontier model in just 15 days, a feat worthy of a Guinness World Record.
Hong Kong SFC Releases Asset and Wealth Management Activity Survey: Total AUM Reached US$5.4 Trillion Last Year, Setting New Record High
The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong released the "2025 Asset and Wealth Management Activity Survey", which shows: 1. Hong Kong's total assets under management in 2025 increased by 20% year-on-year to a historical high of 42.2 trillion HKD (5.4 trillion USD), with part of the growth momentum coming from net fund inflows, which surged 193% year-on-year to 2.1 trillion HKD (265 billion USD), marking the third consecutive year of increase; 2. Assets under management for asset management and fund advisory businesses increased by 19% year-on-year to 31 trillion HKD (4 trillion USD); 3. Assets under management for private banking and private wealth management businesses increased significantly by 24% year-on-year to 12.9 trillion HKD (1.7 trillion USD); 4. Net asset value of authorized funds increased by 38% to 2.3 trillion HKD (292 billion USD); 5. Net fund inflows in the asset management and fund advisory business segment surged 330% to 1.38 trillion HKD (177.3 billion USD); 6. The number of institutions licensed to conduct asset management (Type 9 regulated activity) increased by 7% year-on-year to 2,358.
World Cup Sparks Prediction Market: Polymarket Trading Volume Up 300%, Kalshi Open Interest Hits Record $1.16 Billion
According to Odaily, within the ten days leading up to the World Cup, Polymarket's soccer category trading volume exceeded $2 billion, a 300% increase compared to the previous ten days. The average daily trading volume rose from $53 million before the tournament to approximately $220 million. Meanwhile, last Thursday, Kalshi's open interest reached a record $1.16 billion, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time and growing 350% since the beginning of the year.Although Polymarket's open interest levels remained relatively stable during the World Cup, the open interest on Polymarket's U.S. branch only saw moderate growth, failing to reach the highs from April 2026. Kalshi's open interest has grown faster than its trading volume, indicating that its user base holds positions for longer periods and has established larger directional positions. Its CFTC-regulated channel and direct USD deposit gateway have attracted U.S. institutions and high-net-worth dollar investors. (The Block)
Analysis: U.S. Stocks Could Set a 30-Year Record in 2026, No Widespread Selling Signals Yet
The Kobeissi Letter stated on X platform that the U.S. stock market has demonstrated unprecedented resilience in 2026, and this year is on track to become the first full year in at least 30 years without a single day of "80%+ NYSE downside volume" on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).The so-called "80%+ downside-volume days" refers to days when at least 80% of NYSE trading volume comes from declining stocks, typically viewed as a key signal of broad selling pressure in the market.Data shows that during the 2008 global financial crisis, the NYSE recorded 49 such trading days; during the 2022 bear market, there were 33; and in 2025, there were 9. Since 1997, this metric has averaged approximately 21 occurrences per year, and no full year has ever fallen below 5.The Kobeissi Letter noted that as of now, 2026 has seen almost no broad-based selling pressure, indicating that investor sell-off activity remains relatively limited and market structure is showing strong support. While the current U.S. stock market exhibits "unprecedented resilience," this phenomenon also implies that market risks may become more concentrated in potential future liquidity shifts or unexpected events.
Coinbase Premium Index Negative for Over 90 Consecutive Days, Setting Longest Historical Record
According to CryptoRank.io data, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained in negative territory for over 90 consecutive days, marking the longest duration on record. This indicates that US market demand remains consistently weaker compared to the global market. CryptoRank.io stated that if the index returns to positive territory, it could become an early signal of renewed capital inflow into the US and potentially boost the market.
Bloomberg ETF Analyst: Record 242 ETFs Launched in the US in June, Full-Year 2026 Could Exceed 1,450
Odaily Odaily News Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas stated on platform X that the US ETF market is experiencing unprecedented expansion. A total of 242 ETFs were launched in June this year, setting a new single-month issuance record, equivalent to approximately 11 new products per day. In the first half of 2026, the number of newly added ETFs reached 730. At the current pace, the full-year total could surpass 1,450, significantly surpassing last year's record.Eric Balchunas particularly highlighted the aggressive expansion strategy of emerging issuer Corgi. Data shows that Corgi launched over 100 ETFs in June, already ranking as the sixth-largest ETF issuer. If the current issuance pace continues (the company still has about 350 ETFs in the registration stage), Corgi could overtake BlackRock by the end of this year to become the issuer with the highest number of ETFs in the market.Balchunas noted that it took BlackRock over 20 years to build its current ETF product lineup, whereas Corgi may achieve a similar scale in less than a year. However, growth in quantity does not necessarily mean a corresponding increase in capital inflow. Currently, some of Corgi's ETFs have attracted a certain amount of capital, but most products are still in a market cultivation phase. The average asset size of its ETF portfolio is approximately $4 million, compared to the overall ETF industry average of about $3 billion. Corgi still faces a significant challenge in attracting assets. Balchunas described Corgi's mass issuance strategy as "extremely bold," and its rapid expansion has undoubtedly become one of the most attention-grabbing phenomena in the current ETF market.
Hyperliquid Top Trader's Bitcoin Long Position Hits Glassnode Record, Surpassing Level from Last Rally to $83,000
on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that top traders on decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid are heavily long on Bitcoin, with their sustained long position reaching the highest level since the platform's records began, surpassing the level seen during Bitcoin's previous rally to approximately $83,000. Glassnode noted that this position indicates strong speculative demand at the current price level. Hyperliquid is a decentralized derivatives exchange where traders can trade leveraged perpetual contracts with no expiry date on-chain. A Bitcoin whale on Hyperliquid has recently pushed net long positions to a year-to-date high. Glassnode's weekly report shows that despite Bitcoin's price decline in June, accumulation has continued; Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $65,000 level.
Coinbase Bitcoin Discount vs. Binance Extends to 50 Consecutive Days, Setting a New Record
as of July 7-8, 2026, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been negative for 50 consecutive days, marking the longest negative period on record for the indicator. The latest reading is approximately -0.0742%, indicating that Bitcoin is priced lower on the US-based exchange Coinbase than on Binance. This indicator compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and Binance. A negative reading typically corresponds to weaker US buyer demand compared to broader international market demand; this negative cycle began on May 19, 2026, and has already surpassed the previous record of 40 consecutive days of negative readings. As of early July 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of approximately $6 billion year-to-date. In late June, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows exceeding $2.6 billion over nine trading days, following which Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded a combined inflow of $282 million.
Wintermute: Bitcoin Holds $62,000 Amid Geopolitical Shock, ETFs Record First Net Inflow After Eight Weeks of Outflows
Amid geopolitical risks such as US airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin performed steadily overall, holding the key $62,000 level, indicating that market selling pressure has eased. Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recorded a combined net inflow of approximately $282 million, ending eight consecutive weeks of capital outflows. However, institutions believe this is more like a preliminary turning point signal and is not yet sufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
Compound Finance Approves Record $52 Million Budget, Pivots to Institutional Clients
Odaily News: Decentralized lending protocol Compound Finance has completed a leadership overhaul and approved a record $52 million budget. The protocol's total value locked has fallen from a peak of $12 billion in 2021 to $1.2 billion, and it is now seeking to restore growth. Compound Finance is pivoting to serve institutional clients, developing real-world asset products, partner integration solutions, and credit infrastructure to meet the compliance and technical standards of traditional finance. Industry executives say Compound Finance's new leadership team and substantial budget align with the broader shift within the decentralized finance sector toward serving financial institutions. The sector's overall assets had previously declined due to market weakness and security breach incidents. (CoinDesk)
Cryptocurrency Hacks Set Record in First Half of 2026, Losses Exceed $1 Billion
In the first half of 2026, losses from hacker attacks on cryptocurrency projects have exceeded $1 billion, with the number of verified attack incidents reaching a record high for the same period in history, described as "the half-year with the most hacker attacks on record." However, in terms of value, overall losses remain lower than the same period last year, mainly because a $1.5 billion attack incident occurred at Bybit in 2025, raising the baseline.
Compound Finance Approves Record $52 Million Budget, Pivots to Institutional Clients
Odaily News: Decentralized lending protocol Compound Finance has completed a leadership overhaul and approved a record $52 million budget. The protocol's total value locked has fallen from a peak of $12 billion in 2021 to $1.2 billion, and it is now seeking to restore growth. Compound Finance is pivoting to serve institutional clients, developing real-world asset products, partner integration solutions, and credit infrastructure to meet the compliance and technical standards of traditional finance. Industry executives say Compound Finance's new leadership team and substantial budget align with the broader shift within the decentralized finance sector toward serving financial institutions. The sector's overall assets had previously declined due to market weakness and security breach incidents. (CoinDesk)
Spark Protocol Releases 2026 Q2 Financial Report: Distribution Revenue Hits Record High, Net Surplus Declines Quarter-over-Quarter
According to Spark's official report, Spark Protocol released its financial report for the second quarter of 2026. Quarterly total protocol revenue reached $40.6 million (QoQ +29%), net protocol revenue $4.31 million (QoQ -38%), and net protocol surplus $710,000 (QoQ -79%). Distribution rewards became the largest net revenue source this quarter at $4.53 million, with sUSDS contributing $2.63 million to rank first. The average deployed capital of Spark Liquidity Layer (SLL) increased to $2.56 billion, but dragged down by narrowing DeFi lending spreads and capital costs from Spark Savings USDT market expansion, SLL net revenue recorded -$810,000, with the capture spread dropping from 0.64% in Q1 to -0.13%. SparkLend USDT balance reached $528 million at the end of the quarter, becoming one of the largest USDT lending platforms on Ethereum. The protocol treasury balance at the end of the quarter was $48.5 million, with $1.31 million worth of SPK token buybacks completed during the quarter. Despite facing spread compression pressure, the protocol remained profitable every month this quarter.
Robinhood Announces 2026 Q2 Earnings, Revenue Hits Record High of $1.31 Billion
据 Robinhood 官方公告，公司 2026 年第二季度总净营收同比增长 32%至 13.1 亿美元，创历史新高；净利润同比增长 48%至 5.73 亿美元，稀释每股收益 0.62 美元。 核心业务方面，交易收入同比增长 44%至 7.76 亿美元，其中预测市场事件合约收入暴增逾 10 倍至 1.56 亿美元，股票交易收入增长 95%至 1.29 亿美元，期权收入增长 29%至 3.42 亿美元；加密货币收入则同比下滑 38%至 1 亿美元。用户数据方面，净存款创纪录达 217 亿美元，Gold 订阅用户同比增长 39%至 480 万人，平台总资产增长 32%至 3690 亿美元，人均年化收入（ARPU）增长 24%至 187 美元。 业务扩张方面，公司旗下已有 13 条业务线年化收入突破 1 亿美元，Trump 账户自 7月 4 日上线以来已吸引逾 700 万账户注册，存款近 15 亿美元；Robinhood Chain 公共主网正式上线，新增 120 余国股票代币交易，并完成对加拿大 WonderFi 的收购，国际付费用户突破 100 万。
Moonshot AI Responds to Allegations of Distilling Fable for K3: Only 15 Days Between Releases
Moonshot AI employee Randy responded on X platform to White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios’ remarks regarding Moonshot AI using Anthropic’s Fable to distill and develop the K3 model. He stated that Fable made its public debut on July 1, while K3 was launched on July 15. The team trained a brand-new frontier model in just 15 days, a feat worthy of a Guinness World Record.
Nomura Securities: May Package Substrate Shipments Up 36% YoY to Hit Record High, Rubin Mass Production and HBM4 Technology Roadmap Become Focus
According to TechFlow Research, on July 14, 2026, Nomura Securities released a research report citing data from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Japan's packaging substrate shipment value in May reached 27.8 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 36%, hitting a record high; shipment area increased by 10%, and the average price rose 23% to 1.356 million yen per square meter. The report pointed out that NVIDIA Rubin packaging demand will ramp up this summer (at latest by August), but the variable worth paying more attention to is that Rubin Ultra may shift from a four-die structure to a dual-module structure, as well as the large interposer integration challenges brought by HBM4 wiring upgrades. Intel released EMIB-T technology at ECTC, expected to complete mass production readiness in 2026, capable of integrating up to 12 HBM4 units under an interposer-less solution, with power supply voltage drop improved by 68-80% compared to EMIB; TSMC maintains its lead relying on 3DFabric Alliance and advantages in power delivery and heat dissipation. Nomura Securities believes that the core battlefield of the next-generation packaging competition lies in power delivery, heat dissipation, CPO, and 3D hybrid bonding, and excess returns in the packaging substrate industry will come from the ability to bind to customer technology roadmaps.
Hong Kong SFC Releases Asset and Wealth Management Activity Survey: Total AUM Reached US$5.4 Trillion Last Year, Setting New Record High
The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong released the "2025 Asset and Wealth Management Activity Survey", which shows: 1. Hong Kong's total assets under management in 2025 increased by 20% year-on-year to a historical high of 42.2 trillion HKD (5.4 trillion USD), with part of the growth momentum coming from net fund inflows, which surged 193% year-on-year to 2.1 trillion HKD (265 billion USD), marking the third consecutive year of increase; 2. Assets under management for asset management and fund advisory businesses increased by 19% year-on-year to 31 trillion HKD (4 trillion USD); 3. Assets under management for private banking and private wealth management businesses increased significantly by 24% year-on-year to 12.9 trillion HKD (1.7 trillion USD); 4. Net asset value of authorized funds increased by 38% to 2.3 trillion HKD (292 billion USD); 5. Net fund inflows in the asset management and fund advisory business segment surged 330% to 1.38 trillion HKD (177.3 billion USD); 6. The number of institutions licensed to conduct asset management (Type 9 regulated activity) increased by 7% year-on-year to 2,358.
Related news
Cryptocurrency and AI Companies Drive U.S. Midterm Election Corporate Spending to Record $517 Million
According to Reuters, driven by companies in sectors such as cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence, corporate spending for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has reached a record $517 million. Data from Public Citizen shows that over the past 15 months, U.S. corporate spending in House and Senate elections has already surpassed the $461 million record set during the 2024 election cycle, and does not yet include additional expenditures in the final stages of the general election.
Analysis: U.S. Stocks Could Set a 30-Year Record in 2026, No Widespread Selling Signals Yet
The Kobeissi Letter stated on X platform that the U.S. stock market has demonstrated unprecedented resilience in 2026, and this year is on track to become the first full year in at least 30 years without a single day of "80%+ NYSE downside volume" on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).The so-called "80%+ downside-volume days" refers to days when at least 80% of NYSE trading volume comes from declining stocks, typically viewed as a key signal of broad selling pressure in the market.Data shows that during the 2008 global financial crisis, the NYSE recorded 49 such trading days; during the 2022 bear market, there were 33; and in 2025, there were 9. Since 1997, this metric has averaged approximately 21 occurrences per year, and no full year has ever fallen below 5.The Kobeissi Letter noted that as of now, 2026 has seen almost no broad-based selling pressure, indicating that investor sell-off activity remains relatively limited and market structure is showing strong support. While the current U.S. stock market exhibits "unprecedented resilience," this phenomenon also implies that market risks may become more concentrated in potential future liquidity shifts or unexpected events.
Compound Finance Approves Record $52 Million Budget, Pivots to Institutional Clients
Odaily News: Decentralized lending protocol Compound Finance has completed a leadership overhaul and approved a record $52 million budget. The protocol's total value locked has fallen from a peak of $12 billion in 2021 to $1.2 billion, and it is now seeking to restore growth. Compound Finance is pivoting to serve institutional clients, developing real-world asset products, partner integration solutions, and credit infrastructure to meet the compliance and technical standards of traditional finance. Industry executives say Compound Finance's new leadership team and substantial budget align with the broader shift within the decentralized finance sector toward serving financial institutions. The sector's overall assets had previously declined due to market weakness and security breach incidents. (CoinDesk)
Coinbase Premium Index Negative for Over 90 Consecutive Days, Setting Longest Historical Record
According to CryptoRank.io data, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained in negative territory for over 90 consecutive days, marking the longest duration on record. This indicates that US market demand remains consistently weaker compared to the global market. CryptoRank.io stated that if the index returns to positive territory, it could become an early signal of renewed capital inflow into the US and potentially boost the market.
Over $19 Billion in Leveraged Positions Liquidated in a Single Day, Setting a Crypto Market Record
Odaily News, October 10-11, 2025. After US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated across the crypto market within 24 hours, affecting over 1.6 million traders, with longs accounting for roughly $16.7 billion. Open interest in perpetual swaps on major exchanges fell 43% in a single day, dropping from $217 billion to $123 billion. Decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid saw its open interest decline 57%, from $14 billion to $6 billion. Market makers estimate the actual liquidation volume may have reached $30 billion to $40 billion. On January 20, 2026, $1.08 billion in positions were liquidated, affecting over 182,000 traders. On February 1, approximately $2.2 billion in positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana accounting for $961 million, $679 million, and $168 million respectively, with longs comprising about 80% to 85% of the total. (Bitcoin.com News)
Morgan Stanley: CoreWeave Adds Record 500MW Capacity in Single Quarter, High Debt and Customer Concentration Weigh on Valuation
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's August Q2 earnings report indicated that CoreWeave added 500MW of net active power in a single quarter, exceeding any quarter in history, more than three times year-over-year. Management reaffirmed the target of reaching at least 8GW before 2030. FY26 revenue guidance midpoint was raised 2% to $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion, ARR midpoint was raised 3% to $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion. The company raised full-year capital expenditure guidance midpoint by 12% to $35.5 billion to $39.0 billion, Q3 capital expenditure guidance is $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion, higher than the market expectation of $10 billion. Managed Inference Platform (managed inference platform) ARR grew from $1 million to over $100 million, expected to reach at least $250 million by year-end. The research report judges that Q2 adjusted operating margin was about 8%, higher than expected, but Q3 margin guidance of 5.8% to 7.2% is lower than market expectations, Q4 margin needs to increase significantly to achieve full-year guidance. Morgan Stanley expects CoreWeave FY27 operating margin to be 15.9%, FY28 to be 22.4%, free cash flow to remain negative until 2028, and debt is expected to increase to approximately $38 billion by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley maintains Equal-weight (in line with the market) rating and $99 price target.