Morgan Stanley: CoreWeave Adds Record 500MW Capacity in Single Quarter, High Debt and Customer Concentration Weigh on Valuation

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's August Q2 earnings report indicated that CoreWeave added 500MW of net active power in a single quarter, exceeding any quarter in history, more than three times year-over-year. Management reaffirmed the target of reaching at least 8GW before 2030. FY26 revenue guidance midpoint was raised 2% to $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion, ARR midpoint was raised 3% to $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion. The company raised full-year capital expenditure guidance midpoint by 12% to $35.5 billion to $39.0 billion, Q3 capital expenditure guidance is $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion, higher than the market expectation of $10 billion. Managed Inference Platform (managed inference platform) ARR grew from $1 million to over $100 million, expected to reach at least $250 million by year-end. The research report judges that Q2 adjusted operating margin was about 8%, higher than expected, but Q3 margin guidance of 5.8% to 7.2% is lower than market expectations, Q4 margin needs to increase significantly to achieve full-year guidance. Morgan Stanley expects CoreWeave FY27 operating margin to be 15.9%, FY28 to be 22.4%, free cash flow to remain negative until 2028, and debt is expected to increase to approximately $38 billion by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley maintains Equal-weight (in line with the market) rating and $99 price target.