News linked to both this project and an event.
Crypto analyst Darkfost stated in a post that over the past decade, the amplitude of Bitcoin price fluctuations around the "Power Law" trendline has been gradually decreasing, with market cycle volatility trending toward convergence. The oscillator index peak has declined from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025, while its daily change standard deviation has fallen from 4.81 to 2.47, representing a drop of approximately 49%. Darkfost added that as of October 3, the model’s oscillator index stood at +34.5, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $84,700. Based on that day's model parameters, an oscillator index reaching +100 would correspond to a Bitcoin price of roughly $157,800, which is about 86% higher than the current price. He also noted that $157,800 is not a fixed target price, but rather a reference level calculated based on current regression parameters. If the Power Law trendline continues to rise in the future, this reference level will increase accordingly.
In pre-market analysis, trader degentrading (@degentradingLSD) highlights the following key market signals: • Macro: The 10Y yield has risen to 5.2% and the 30Y to 5.5%, nearing historical peaks. The South Korean stock market opened down 2.5%, with the memory and semiconductor sectors (SK Hynix, Samsung, MU, SNDK) broadly declining 2%–5%. Price action is expected to remain volatile ahead of MU's earnings report. • Next-Generation Cloud Computing: Project payback periods for compute infrastructure have fallen below one year. Market perception is shifting, and rapid revaluation of the new cloud sector is anticipated. Power supply bottlenecks are also gaining prominence. • Tech Stocks: META is trading lower in pre-market. Monitor for accumulation opportunities at the $690 support level or a breakout above all-time highs. If the broader hyperscale data center sector breaks out, META, MSFT, and peers could undergo paradigm-level repricing. • Crypto Markets: Broad weakness across major and alt coins, with BTC potentially testing the $82K support level. Risk capital was freed last week by trimming TAO and DOGE, and taking profit on CRDO. Since crypto sentiment typically remains positive during KBW week, the strategy this week centers on identifying short-term bullish setups.
DOG 创始人 Leonidas在 X 平台发文喊话 Bitget CEO 称，Bitget 在遭遇黑客攻击数小时后、用户提现仍处于暂停状态时发布 DOG 下架公告，叠加黑客事件引发的信任担忧，导致 DOG在 Bitget 出现严重价格脱锚，并直接影响持有或交易 DOG 的用户。
Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the 35,000 ETH that Garrett Jin whale entity (0x92ea...050e) withdrew from Binance last night has been fully sold 10 minutes ago at a price of $2,500, worth $87.5 million. After selling the ETH, the entity added partial margin to its ZEC short position, raising the liquidation price from $2,631 to $4,738; the short position is currently showing an unrealized loss of $30 million.
According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode (@glassnode), Bitcoin’s price fell to approximately $76,000, breaking below the consolidation range maintained since late August and dropping roughly 1% below the “Realized Price” of $76,700. Despite multiple headwinds including the failure of the Senate’s CLARITY Act vote, sharp declines in altcoins, and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, the pullback has remained moderate. On-chain capital inflows turned negative for the first time on September 15 following 27 consecutive days of growth; U.S. spot ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of approximately $334 million from September 8 to 14; the total stablecoin market cap stands at roughly $301 billion, down about 4% from its April peak with recent growth stalling; and publicly traded companies have net-purchased only about 5,900 BTC over the past three months, far below the 89,000 BTC bought in July 2025, with an average corporate cost basis of approximately $80,500 leaving them currently underwater. The options market shifted to bearish sentiment within hours of the voting results being announced. Max pain for the September 25 expirations sits at $72,000, with heavy call option concentration capping upside near $85,000. The order book shows thin bid liquidity below $68,000; should this range break decisively, subsequent key support levels would be the short-term holder cost basis at $71,300 and the on-chain support zone between $62,000 and $65,000.
Odaily News According to data from the Korea Securities Depository, Korean retail investors recorded a net purchase of approximately $85.61 million (about 118.5 billion KRW) in the "Roundhill Memory ETF" between August 14 and 20, making it the second-largest product by net purchase amount among the country's overseas individual stocks and ETFs (trailing only Google's parent company Alphabet). This actively managed ETF primarily invests in major memory chip companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron.Recently, memory chip stocks have shown a clear rebound. From August 10 to 21, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics saw their stock prices rise by 21.6% and 21.8%, respectively, both outpacing the 10.4% gain of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) over the same period. On the US market side, Micron rose approximately 11% during the same timeframe, while SanDisk gained around 32%.The domestic Korean ETF market has also seen capital inflows. Data shows that between August 14 and 20, the "TIGER US S&P500 ETF," which tracks the S&P 500 index, attracted net inflows of 170.9 billion KRW, while the "KODEX US Nasdaq 100 ETF," which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, saw net inflows of 132.3 billion KRW. Market analysts believe that as expectations for a semiconductor cycle recovery grow, investors are increasing their allocations to the AI chip and memory chip supply chain. (Daum)
According to Korean media outlet Economist, as the memory chip sector mounts a strong rebound, South Korean retail investors are accelerating capital inflows into U.S.-listed ETFs investing in companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. Data from the Korea Securities Depository shows that domestic retail investors recorded a weekly net purchase of approximately $85.61 million (roughly 118.5 billion won) in the Roundhill Memory ETF, making it the second-largest product by net buying volume among overseas individual stocks and ETFs during the same period. The ETF primarily invests in major memory chip enterprises including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. Memory chip stocks have recently witnessed a clear recovery, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics shares rising 21.6% and 21.8%, respectively, over the past two weeks, both outpacing the 10.4% gain of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI). In the U.S. market, Micron rose approximately 11%, while SanDisk gained around 32%.
According to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley's August 20 report indicates that gold has hit its fourth-quarter target price of $4,450 per ounce. From July to August, easing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes spurred net inflows of 70 tons into gold ETFs, reversing the 93-ton net outflow seen from May to June. The People's Bank of China purchased 60 tons of gold this year, marking its highest accumulation since 2023; Poland added 82 tons, raising total holdings to 632 tons and approaching its 700-ton target. Morgan Stanley maintains that gold prices are decoupling from the real interest rate framework. Persistent central bank buying, COMEX short positions falling to their lowest since April 2020, and fiscal concerns underlying yield curve steepening form a new structural foundation. The bank projects that gold prices could surpass $5,000 per ounce by 2027, with US inflation data serving as the main short-term volatility risk.
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently attempting to reclaim the "Active Supply Cost Basis" level.Darkfost noted that active supply refers to all BTC that has been transferred at least once within the past 7 years. By excluding long-dormant Bitcoin, a more accurate average cost basis that aligns with the current market structure can be obtained, with its Realized Price standing at approximately $70,400.He stated that the last time Bitcoin successfully reclaimed this level was in early April, before the market fell back below this zone again in early June, with sellers reasserting dominance.Darkfost said that if BTC can sustain its position above the active supply cost basis this time, it could signal the market is forming a longer-term uptrend, rather than the brief breakout that lasted only about two months previously.This metric is commonly used by the market to observe changes in long-term holder costs and Bitcoin market cycle status. Whether BTC can firmly hold near the $70,400 level will become a key indicator for future bullish and bearish forces.
Odaily News Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating within a narrow range recently, with volatility, trading activity, and market liquidity all compressed to levels similar to those seen at the end of a bear market.Currently, Bitcoin's price remains above the "Median Realised Price" of around $63,200, while the key level for short-term holders (STH) to achieve overall profitability stands at $67,176. Meanwhile, market demand is weakening: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $385 million last week, corporate Bitcoin reserve-related activity has turned negative, spot trading volume has fallen to multi-year lows, and Bitcoin transfer speed has dropped to its lowest level in seven years.Bitfinex stated that in the current extremely thin liquidity environment, even slight changes in capital flows could trigger significant Bitcoin price fluctuations. At the same time, weak retail activity, declining real income, and deteriorating consumer confidence indicate that U.S. household demand is under pressure. Bitfinex noted that the current market shows a clear divergence: accommodative financial conditions are driving traditional risk assets higher, but the crypto market has not yet received corresponding capital inflows.Bitfinex believes that the core market question has shifted from "whether monetary policy will improve" to "whether improved liquidity can translate into capital inflows for crypto assets." If Bitcoin spot ETFs resume sustained net inflows in the future, coupled with stablecoin supply expansion, this would signal a restart of the crypto market's liquidity transmission mechanism and could become a key catalyst for BTC breaking out of its prolonged low-volatility state.Before capital returns, although the macro environment is gradually improving, the crypto market's upside still lacks capital support. However, given that market participation has dropped to extremely low levels and BTC continues to hold key realized price support levels, once liquidity re-enters the market, it could trigger violent fluctuations. The current structure leans toward an upward breakout once demand recovers.
Odaily News - According to Lookonchain monitoring, a trader monitored CZ's public wallet in real time and bought 84.61 million MARSCOIN tokens with 16 BNB (approximately $9,645) in the same second CZ's wallet burned 4,444 MARSCOIN tokens. To secure the transaction first, the trader raised the Gas Price to hundreds or even thousands of times the normal level.After the purchase, the trader sold half of the position once the price doubled, recovering 16.4 BNB to recoup the initial capital, then took profits on the remaining position in batches, eventually selling for 465 BNB (approximately $282,000), achieving an overall return of 29x and becoming the wallet with the highest MARSCOIN profits.
Recently, DeepSeek-V4 announced impending price increases and the introduction of peak-valley pricing. On August 15, the B.AI platform announced a major benefits plan to help developers use DeepSeek without fear of costs. New users logging in via Binance Wallet, Bitget Wallet, or imToken wallet can claim 1 million free Credits; entering an invitation code adds another 300,000, totaling up to 1.3 million. Both new and existing users can also enjoy extra Bonus Credits of up to $100 upon recharge. Users can prepare their B.AI accounts in advance to unlock benefits early.
Odaily News: Flap has announced the launch of bBroker Vault, powered by bStocks, on BNB Chain, combining Meme coin trading activity with NFT yields and tokenized stock ecosystems through a new mechanism.Under this mechanism, users are required to pay a fixed fee in corresponding tax tokens to mint bBroker NFTs, and the tokens paid are burned directly. Subsequently, trading fees from quote assets flowing into the Vault are automatically allocated to a "dividend pool" and a "floor price pool," enabling NFT holders to continuously earn dividends in quote assets without staking or locking up.Meanwhile, each bBroker NFT carries an on-chain floor price backed 1:1 by assets in the floor price pool, and holders can sell the NFT back to the Vault at any time to exit. Flap positions this mechanism as a novel on-chain economic model integrating Meme coins, NFTs, and stock assets.
Odaily News: Trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted on the X platform stating that the Realized Price for Bitcoin short-term holders with a holding period of less than 3 months (
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale has deposited 60,000 HYPE into Hyperliquid and sold 31,560 of them, cashing out approximately 1.77 million USD. Currently, the address still has two HYPE Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) sell orders being executed, including one sell order sized at approximately 40,000 HYPE valued at approximately 2.1 million USD, with remaining execution time of approximately 15 hours. Additionally, the address also transferred approximately 1.67 million USDC to Coinbase.
According to monitoring by on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), as the BTC price rose, the 1,793 BTC (approximately $114.4 million) short position held by address 0xff84 was once on the verge of forced liquidation. The address subsequently voluntarily closed part of the position to mitigate risk. The current remaining short position is 1,543 BTC (approximately $98.97 million), and the latest liquidation price has moved up to $64,225.35.
Bitcoin analyst Plan B stated on the X platform that the core of Bitcoin's long-term value lies in scarcity, not short-term price fluctuations.Plan B believes that many people focus on Bitcoin's price charts, while the S2F model he uses focuses on the degree of asset scarcity. This model measures scarcity through "existing supply ÷ annual new production," where the S2F for gold is approximately 60. Due to Bitcoin's fixed total supply of 21 million coins and its predictable issuance schedule, its S2F is currently around 120 and continues to rise over time.The Bitcoin halving mechanism is an important driver of the S2F model. Approximately every four years, the Bitcoin network reduces the block reward by half, decreasing new supply and roughly doubling the S2F level, making it the core supply-side event observed by the model.Plan B emphasized that the S2F and its upgraded version, the S2FX model, predict long-term average value rather than precisely forecasting market tops or bottoms. Bitcoin's price typically fluctuates around the model's estimated value, and investors should focus on multi-year cycle averages rather than single-day price highs. Additionally, Plan B believes that as scarcity increases, Bitcoin is undergoing different stages of development, including proof of concept, payment network, "digital gold"/store of value asset, and institutional-grade financial asset. Each increase in scarcity could bring new market narratives and capital inflows.However, Plan B also reiterated that "all models are wrong, but some are useful." He stated that the S2F model is merely a tool for long-term understanding of Bitcoin's scarcity, not a trading signal or a "crystal ball" for price prediction. Although the model has withstood major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and China's mining ban, it still has limitations.
A whale who previously shorted approximately $102 million worth of BTC with 40x leverage recently experienced partial liquidation, losing approximately $1.46 million over the past week. Currently, their short position has decreased to approximately $60 million, with a liquidation price of approximately $65,310.
Citrini analyst Jukan reposted content on platform X stating that industry insiders say Google DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis previously planned to leave around the same time as another co-founder David Silver, but Google management worried this news might trigger a significant stock price drop, therefore hoping he would postpone his departure. Sources say that after Google announced relevant adjustments, the company's stock price indeed dropped, and eventually Hassabis was persuaded to transition to the DeepMind Chairman position to help the organization transition smoothly and create space to leave Google in a more appropriate way in the future. It is reported that as David Silver turns to founding Ineffable Intelligence and John Jumper joins Anthropic, DeepMind's core AI R&D strength is undergoing changes. Some insiders believe that the center truly driving AI model development at Google has now shifted more towards the US Bay Area, DeepMind's importance has declined somewhat, and Google's internal focus has shifted to the large language model Gemini to catch up with OpenAI and Anthropic. Hassabis's adjustment reflects long-standing strategic contradictions within Google: research personnel focus more on long-term scientific breakthroughs, while business teams focus more on AI products that can be commercialized quickly and drive revenue and stock price growth. The market predicts Hassabis may leave Google within a year and may start a new venture again.
According to Korean media NATE, driven by the AI investment boom, SK Hynix's stock price has recently experienced severe volatility. Against the backdrop of intensifying market volatility, SK Group released an advertisement quoting the famous words of founder Choi Jong-geon (최종건): "Despair and hope are two sides of the same coin; despair can be turned into hope like flipping a hand," and rewrote it as "Anxiety and expectation in the AI era are also two sides of the same coin; anxiety can be turned into expectation," thereby conveying confidence in the long-term development of the AI industry. Securities firms believe that short-term stock price volatility has not changed SK Hynix's fundamentals, and the market should focus on its HBM4 technology leadership advantage and the performance stability brought by Long-Term Agreements (LTA). Hyundai Motor Securities analyst Noh Geun-chang (노근창) stated that SK Hynix's DRAM and NAND bit growth rates for the third quarter are expected to reach 9.7% and 1.5% respectively; with the expansion of HBM4 sales contribution, even if the proportion of Long-Term Agreements increases, DRAM Average Selling Price (ASP) is still expected to rise 19.9% quarter-over-quarter. Regarding competition concerns brought by China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Noh Geun-chang believes that considering the US continues to strengthen semiconductor equipment export restrictions and Micron is expanding domestic investment in the US, the possibility of major companies like Apple adopting Chinese memory chips is relatively low.