Analysts: Bitcoin Power Law Model Releases Signals, Reference Target Price Could Reach $157,800

Crypto analyst Darkfost stated in a post that over the past decade, the amplitude of Bitcoin price fluctuations around the "Power Law" trendline has been gradually decreasing, with market cycle volatility trending toward convergence. The oscillator index peak has declined from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025, while its daily change standard deviation has fallen from 4.81 to 2.47, representing a drop of approximately 49%. Darkfost added that as of October 3, the model’s oscillator index stood at +34.5, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $84,700. Based on that day's model parameters, an oscillator index reaching +100 would correspond to a Bitcoin price of roughly $157,800, which is about 86% higher than the current price. He also noted that $157,800 is not a fixed target price, but rather a reference level calculated based on current regression parameters. If the Power Law trendline continues to rise in the future, this reference level will increase accordingly.